Valspar Championship Betting Angles

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort

Copperhead Course

Palm Harbor, Florida

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Thoughts on Valspar

It’s difficult. Really difficult.

The flat tracks of PGA National, Bay Hill, and TPC Sawgrass have been replaced with oak-lined rolling hills and significant elevation changes.

The last four winners have all ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting and top 15 Greens in Regulation.

Par is a decent score again this week. Exactly five players have posted 10-under or better over the last three events.

Five.

This is not a hit-and-giggle or walk in the park after THE PLAYERS Championship. The cut during the last three editions was 2-over, even, and 1-over.

Survive and advance and enjoy the third-hardest three-hole closing stretch on TOUR, “The Snake Pit”.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseCopperhead Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,352.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa Trivialis overseed; TifEagle Bermuda; 5,822 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass 3.75 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play74/8/9.
Architect(s):Larry Packard (1971).
Defending Champion (event):Viktor Hovland (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:61; Matt NeSmith (Round 2, 2022) & Padraig Harrington (Round 1, 2012). Neither player is in the field this week.
Tournament Scoring Record267 (-17); Sam Burns (not entered), 2022.
Fact of the Week:Since moving to March on the schedule in 2007, the winning margin has been two or fewer shots in every year save 2022.
Fact of the Week II:The course has five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes.

Notes:

  • Field of 135.
  • No significant course changes for 2026.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • $9.1 million – $1.638 million – 500 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Valspar Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Viktor Hovland (-11)Broke a three-way tie on 7-under after 54 holes with a final round 67 to defeat Justin Thomas by a shot.
2024Peter Malnati (-12)Shot a final round 67 to win for the second time on TOUR.
2023Taylor Moore (-10)The first of three consecutive champions to post 67 in the final round. Defeated Adam Schenk by one shot.
2022Sam Burns (-17)Defeated Davis Riley in a playoff to successfully defend his title. His tournament scoring record was one of many broken in PERFECT, windless weather.
2021Sam Burns (-17)The event finished in May and Burns won on TOUR for the first time.
2019Paul Casey (-8)The Englishman became the last winner in single digits.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

LAST WEEK – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa – WD

I have no words.

Missing the cut is one thing. Quitting after one hole is another. Glad to see the online sportsbooks refund folks’ money. That was the right thing to do.

As for One and Done, if you tee it, you played. It sucks, but it’s the right call.

Nobody said you didn’t need a little luck in life, but I feel for the McIlroy/Morikawa contingent the last two weeks. Go buy a lottery ticket or two and see if Karma has returned.

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaWD0

THIS WEEK – Valspar Championship

Xander Schauffele will be on my short list of TWO for the U.S. Open. Brooks Koepka is the defending champion at Shinnecock Hills.

Justin Thomas makes sense this week, but I am not taking my chances on a guy who has just returned from back surgery.

Corey Conners has two wins at Valero, so he stays in the stable.

The Hojgaards have never made a cut here.

Jordan Spieth – Colonial or Augusta.

MY CHOICE: Jacob Bridgeman

Proven in Florida, proven in California.

He played from the final group in 2025 and secured third.

His form is T18 or better in every event this year.

LFG.

Others to consider

Viktor Hovland, Sahith Theegala, Lucas Glover, Billy Horschel, Ryo Hisatsune

Recent Form at Valspar

202520242023
Viktor Hovland (-11)Peter Malnati (-12)Taylor Moore (-10)
wins by 1 (JT)wins by 2 (Cam Young)wins by 1 (Schenk)
Par 71 – 7,352 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 yds
156 players156 players144 players
   
02 Justin Thomas -10T3 Chancler Phillips -902 Adam Schenk -9
03 Jacob Bridgeman -9T3 Mackenzie HughesT3 Jordan Spieth -8
T4 Bud Cauley -8T5 Adam Hadwin -8T7 Webb Simpson -4
T4 Ryo HisatsuneT5 Xander SchauffeleT7 Matt Wallace
T4 Billy HorschelT9 C Bezuidenhout -7T10 Justin Thomas -3
07 Davis Riley -711 Lucas Glover -6T10 Nick Taylor
T8 Seamus Power -6T12 Billy Horschel -5T10 Patton Kizzire
T8 Lucas GloverT12 Taylor MooreT10 Zac Blair
T8 Corey ConnersT12 Kevin RoyT19 Davis Riley -1
T12 Eric Cole -5T17 Matt Wallace -4T19 Denny McCarthy
T12 Xander SchauffeleT17 Akshay BhatiaT27 Chad Ramey E
T12 Ricky CastilloT17 Ben GriffinT27 Alex Smalley
T16 Matt McCarty -4T17 Keith MitchellT27 Kevin Streelman
T22 R N P -3T17 Matti SchmidT27 Stephan Jaeger
T22 Emiliano GrilloT17 Andrew NovakT27 Andrew Novak
T22 Joe HighsmithT26 Seamus Power -3 
T22 Jeremy PaulT26 Lee Hodges 
 T26 Kevin Streelman 

FedExCup Playoffs Event 2

BMW Championship

FedEx Cup Playoffs – Event No. 2

BMW Championship

Caves Valley Golf Club

Owings Mills, Maryland

Head to PGATOUR.COM for all our content each week.

Thoughts on Chalk (odds via Bet365.com)

Scottie Scheffler (+220): With 20 fewer golfers in the field, his odds drop to a season-low figure, and that’s with Rory McIlroy playing. The book has determined this to be a two-horse race. Saddle up correctly! The ONLY note of bother is Ted Scott WILL NOT be on the bag this week.

Rory McIlroy (+750): The rest is over. The roar is over about him missing the event last week. His Ryder Cup place is sealed, and he will NOT be a playing captain in the future. His problem lies just above. There is only one focus this week.

Xander Schauffele (+1800): He’s No. 43 in the standings. The top 30 qualify for East Lake. He will need T21 or better to advance. Sounds pretty straight forward!

Ludvig Aberg (+2500): Now, we’re talking! T23 or better in his last three includes a pair of top-10 paydays. Gaining strokes off the tee is a massive deal this week and next.

Patrick Cantlay (+2000): HE PLAYS WELL WHERE HE PLAYS WELL. Loading up on Top 20 and Top 10 plays too after T9 last week.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500): Too much golf course for me. Too much scar tissue as well. It would be one hell of a story, but it is an extra 300-plus yards he didn’t have to deal with last week.

Cameron Young (+2200): He is on a serious heater! After closing with 64, the round of the day Sunday in Memphis, he picked up solo fifth after winning for the first time at the Wyndham Championship. Bomber’s course and he qualifies.

Justin Thomas (+2500): Only Young put together a better round last Sunday in Memphis. He’s close.

J.J. Spaun (+2800): Only shows up in BIG EVENTS, apparently! What a story! Californian riding a SERIOUS wave!

Others for Top 5 and Top 10 action are mentioned in Prop Bets (Odds Outlook) at PGATOUR.com

Quick note, Hovland did NOT make a hole-in-one here in 2021. It was the following season in Delaware. My mistake (thanks Gator!).

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseCaves Valley Golf Club
Yards (per official scorecard):7,601. Longest Par-70 on TOUR in 2025 and third-longest overall.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:Pure distinction Bentgrass; 5,200 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:4 inches of Bluegrass and Tall Fescue.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-PlayN/A.
Architect(s):Tom Fazio (1990); Logan Fazio (2020). Tom Fazio (2023).
Tournament Record:261 (-27); Patrick Cantlay & Bryson DeChambeau (ineligible), 2021.
Course record (last):60; DeChambeau.
Defending Champion (course):Cantlay.
Defending Champion (event):Keegan Bradley (2).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Cantlay (2021, 2022); Bradley (2018, 2024).
Facts of the Week:Better watch the video below before falling in love with the results and history of 2021!

Recent Winners – BMW Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Keegan Bradley (-12)Wins by two over Aberg and Burns at The International outside Denver.
2023Viktor Hovland (-17)Wins by two over Scheffler and Fitzpatrick at Olympia Fields (North Course).
2022Patrick Cantlay (-14)Knocked off Scott Stallings by one shot at the Wilmington CC.
2021Patrick Cantlay (-27)Needed a six-hole playoff to beat DeChambeau after trashing the field with 31 birdies.

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (first time)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaWorldBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
89th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (3)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicAndrew Novak/Ben Griffin (first time for both)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
ONEFLIGHT Myrtle BeachRyan Fox
107th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
CS ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
125th U.S. OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
The Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose (oldest modern Euro)

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Horses for Courses

The BMW Championship returns to Caves Valley Golf Club outside of Baltimore for the second time since 2021 and for the second time in the history of the event. Identifying the champion is the first order of business. The second is shaving the field of 49 down to the 30 players who will advance to the FedExCup Playoffs TOUR Championship next week in Atlanta. Patrick Cantlay (+2500), the course defending champion and two-time winner of the BMW Championship, highlights a field of 49 players. Sepp Straka withdrew from the event on Monday.

Cantlay put on a master class with the flatstick to produce 27-under 261 on the Par-72 in the 2021 championship. Gaining 3.644 strokes against the field on the greens, he still needed a six-hole playoff to close the deal. The 2025 edition will play and feel brand-new tee-to-green and on the putting surfaces. The Par-72 has been reduced to a Par-70 but has been expanded by almost 60 yards to 7,601 yards, an increase from 7,542 yards in 2021. Watch the changes here. The owner of four top-10 paydays at the BMW Championship, seven of eight registered T15 or better.

Keegan Bradley (+4500) joins Cantlay as the other two-time BMW Championship winner playing this week. The 2025 Ryder Cup captain is also the defending champion of the event, held outside Denver in 2024. Bradley also knocked off Justin Rose in a playoff in the 2018 edition at Aronimink Golf Club in Philadelphia, his first of two top-10 paychecks from 12 attempts.

Top Finishers – 2021 BMW Championship

Players listed below are competing this week; Odds presented by FanDuel Sportsbook

PositionPlayerOdds
1Patrick Cantlay+2500
3Sungjae Im+8000
4Rory McIlroy+750
8Sam Burns+3500
T17Viktor Hovland+3500
T22Scottie Scheffler+220
T22Corey Conners+4500
T22Justin Thomas+2500
T26Harris English+5000
T26Daniel Berger+125000
T26Shane Lowry+7000
T29Brian Harman+8000
T29Si Woo Kim+6000

Rory McIlroy (+750) is making his 15th career start and owns seven top-10 finishes, including a victory in 2012. Finishing fourth in 2021, he was one of six players who topped 20-under-par for the week in the first event at Caves Valley. The World No. 2 owns six FedExCup Playoffs victories, including three FedExCup championships at East Lake Golf Club, another demanding Par-70 layout measuring over 7,400 yards. The Northern Irishman feasts this time of year, owning finishes of T19 in 11 of 14 career events.

Sitting at No. 43 entering the week, Xander Schauffele (+1800) also enjoys the last two events of the FedExCup Playoffs. Searching for his first victory, he will enjoy the new-look layout at Caves Valley. In eight BMW Championships, he collected seven paydays of T20 or better, including top-10 paychecks over the last three editions. The only outlier? T49 in 2021 at Caves Valley.

Sungjae Im (+8000), conversely, wishes Caves Valley had produced a carbon-copy layout in 2025. The Korean posted four rounds of 67 or better to post 23-under and occupy solo third. Making his seventh trip to the BMW Championship, he owns five T15 or better finishes and a pair of results inside the top seven.

SG: Off the Tee

Entered this week

RankPlayerOdds
1Scottie Scheffler+220
3Rory McIlroy+750
7Chris Gotterup+3500
8Taylor Pendrith+8000
10Ludvig Aberg+2200
11Kurt Kitayama+3500
12Collin Morikawa+3500
19Daniel Berger+12500
20Corey Conners+4500

Caves Valley has tightened up the fairways, pinched in bunkers, and increased the length of the rough upwards of four inches. Gaining shots on the field off the tee and attacking from the short grass will set the foundation for the week. The 2021 edition produced seven players in the top 11 spots on the final leaderboard from this category. Length and accuracy, now on a scorecard measuring 7,601 yards, will always play.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

Scottie Scheffler (+280): After podium paydays of T2 in 2023 and T3 in 2022, the favorite this week and every week, will look to improve on his T22 result in 2021.

Justin Rose (+4500): The 2011 winner and runner-up in 2017 and 2018, the Englishman looks to add to his four top-10 paydays. He did not qualify for the 2021 edition.

Justin Thomas (+3000): The winner in 2019 outside Chicago at Medinah No. 3, it is his only top-10 result.

Sam Burns (+4500): Cashing solo eighth place in 2021, the Louisiana native owns four T19 or better finishes.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3500): The Englishman shared fifth in 2024 and continued his streak of four consecutive results T25 or better.

Corey Conners (+4000): Half of his six starts have paid off in the top 10. The Canadian led the field in Fairways in 2021 and cashed T22.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080
AT&T Pebble BeachLudvig AbergWD 
WM Phoenix OpenRasmus HojgaardT12195,500
Genesis InvitationalWill ZalatorisT24168,857
Mexico OpenPatrick RodgersT2559,350
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT2573,721
Arnold PalmerKeegan BradleyT5800,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaT10656,250
Valspar ChampionshipSepp StrakaT2855,844
Houston OpenAaron RaiMC 
Valero Texas OpenCorey ConnersT18113,050
89th MastersRory McIlroyWIN4,200,000
RBC HeritageScottie SchefflerT8540,000
Zurich ClassicKurt KitayamaMC 
Byron NelsonSi Woo KimT15136,719
Truist ChampionshipTommy FleetwoodT4826,667
107th PGA ChampionshipBryson DeChambeauT21,418,667
CS ChallengeJordan SpiethT3642,344
MemorialHideki Matsuyama38th94,000
RBC Canadian OpenTaylor PendrithT2764,353
United States OpenJon RahmT7615,786
TravelersBrian Harman8th620,000
Rocket ClassicCam YoungT4627,091
John Deere ClassicDenny McCarthyT11174,300
Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyreT6519,800
The Open ChampionshipShane LowryT4068,340
3M OpenWyndham ClarkT12186,900
Wyndham ChampBen GriffinT11198,850
FedEx St. Jude ChampXander SchauffeleT22186,666

LAST WEEK – FedEx St. Jude Championship

THE CHOICE: Xander Schauffele

As I wrote last week, you can’t have rounds in the 70s here and contend unless you have a super-special loop. Posting 65 on Saturday after 72 on Friday wasn’t the tonic. He found only 31 of 56 Fairways, good for T56 in a field of 69. T38 GIR didn’t inspire, either. Needing only 103 putts, he’s ready for East Lake Bermuda in two weeks.

Sigh.

THIS Week – BMW Championship

THE CHOICE: Justin Thomas

I could have used former event winners Viktor Hovland or Patrick Cantlay. Instead, I’m running out the biggest winner in the pile who won this event in Chicago in 2019. Chasing with Chris Gotterup or J.J. Spaun is desperate, but I like it.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

OAD: THE PLAYERS Championship 2022

Absolutely exhausting this week if Jon Rahm isn’t on your board.

I’m exhausted.

This is a brutal field to handicap and a brutal field to pick a winner. I’ve sorted some angles for play this week but I’m guessing this is gonna be the week for RAHMIKAWA.

Time to play defense or head a different direction? Mother Nature is my selection this week!

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