Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022

No messin’ around again this week at Bay Hill!

You must play boldly to win, is correct.

via @APInv

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Orlando, Florida

The PGATOUR has a and I’m fortunate enough to be included.

Please get involved! CLICK HERE

Yards (per official scorecard):7,466
Par:72 (36-36)
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Bermuda with over-seeded Ryegrass at 3″.
Bunkers/Water Hazards:84/8 (Water in play on 9 holes).
Architect(s):Dick Wilson (1961); Arnold Palmer Group (2009).
Purse:$12 million ($2.16 winner) plus 550 FedExCup points.
Defending Champion:Bryson DeChambeau (-11; not entered this week – injured).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
72 Hole Tournament Record (since 2000):264; Payne Stewart (1987).
Course Record:  62; last done by Adam Scott (2014).
Fact of the Week:9 of 16 winners since the move have been internationals.
Fact of the Week II:Last playoff here was 1999!

Notes:

  • Invitational field of 120.
  • Top 65 and ties play the final two rounds.
  • 3 Year exemption for the winner.

2021-2022 Season Winners

EventWinner
Fortinet ChampionshipMax Homa
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSam Burns
Shriners Children’s OpenSungjae Im
CJ CUP @ SUMMITRory McIlroy
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPHideki Matsuyama
Bermuda ChampionshipLucas Herbert (first TOUR win)
Mayakoba ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Hewlett Packard Houston OpenJason Kokrak
The RSM ClassicTalor Gooch (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsCameron Smith
Sony Open in HawaiiHideki Matsuyama (2)
The American ExpressHudson Swafford
Farmers Insurance OpenLuke List (first TOUR win)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmTom Hoge (first TOUR win)
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler (first TOUR win)
The Genesis InvitationalJoaquin Niemann
The Honda ClassicSepp Straka (first TOUR win)

Check out HORSES FOR COURSES for more details on those who play well here. The piece has been updated within the last month and has EXTRA DETAILS that I’m not going to put in here.

Event Winners:

Year/Player/Score * – PlayoffNotes
2021 Bryson DeChambeau     (-11)  Posted one of only THREE rounds in the red on Sunday to knock off Lee Westwood. Not defending this week due to a hand injury.
2020 Tyrrell Hatton (-4)Only four players under par as Hatton becomes the first Englishman to win at Bay Hill. Didn’t break or equal par on the weekend!
2019 Francesco Molinari (-12)Fired a bogey-free 64 in Round 4 to win by two over 54 hole leader Matt Fitzpatrick.
2018 Rory McIlroy (-18)Fired a bogey-free 64 in Round 4 to win by three over DeChambeau.
2017 Mark Leishman (-11)Fired 69 in the final round to make up a three shot deficit to beat the final pairing of Kevin Kisner and Charley Hoffman by a shot.
2016 Jason Day   (-17)First wire-to-wire winner in some time as he pounded the brand new TifEagle greens into submission.

Last Time – The Honda Classic

Thoughts on Chalk (My plays will be obvious)

Sungjae Im (+1200): Full bag and previous winning experience here makes this an obvious selection. T8 on defense suggests the moment doesn’t get too big for him. Gotta love a guy who busts off a two week break to get amongst it at Riviera! That’s gonna sharpen the set before this week. MC.

Daniel Berger (+1600): Couldn’t defend at Pebble (back injury). Didn’t make the cut at WMPO where he usually rakes. He should be rested after skipping Riviera. I don’t like “should” and not this price. Well, that looked all about silly until Sunday morning. 4th.

Brooks Koepka (+2000): Home game as well like Berger for Koepka and many others this week. Koepka is healthy, minus his hair dye, but he’s on familiar ground this week and almost won here in 2019, the last time he was healthy. T16 is solid but the expectations here are more than that.

Joaquin Niemann (+2000): Surprised he’s still in the field but since he lives in the area maybe I shouldn’t be! He might be more excited to sleep in his own bed that battle The Bear Trap. I’ll try the SchefflerTheory again this week and stick him in for a top 10 just in case he keeps hitting it LIKE THAT again. Nope, MC. Got two extra nights without a wakeup call!

Billy Horschel (+2200): His grass, his home state and T6/T11 in his last two on TOUR. I can’t remember the last time he missed a weekend and this will be his 10th attempt here. One bad round (74 Round 2) stalled out a very solid three days of par or better. It’s close T16.

Louis Oosthuizen (+2200): He’ll make the drive from his farm in Ocala as he plays just his second event of 2022. All this is just prep for St Andrews in July folks! T30.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3000): If there is a place in the States, and granted I don’t have many to choose from because his record over here has been dire for a couple of years, this is it. Cashed third in 2020 and T4 2019 in his only two visits and rolls in with T8 from the Saudi desert. Nope, MC. Some of you will see his course history at Bay Hill and be tempted again!

33-1 or Worse Select Opinions

Shane Lowry (+3300): Never MC in four tries here and he’s started with three straight T25 or better in Europe. Third straight year in this event. Did everything but win it on Sunday! Excellent form in 2022 rolls on 2nd.

Alex Noren (+3300): T6 in Scottsdale is the best in stretch of 3 straight makes. Missed the playoff by a shot in 2018. T5 with all four rounds par or better and T1 GIR.

Keith Mitchell (+3300): Nothing is bothering him at the moment. Another week of solid ball-striking and Bermuda putting should be right up his alley. Top 10. One of just a few with a pair of 60-somethings on the weekend for T9. Boom.

Matthew Wolff (+4000): Absolutely all over the shop but there’s no questioning his talent. Blistering finish to 2021 may be rekindled after T6 in Saudi and a week off? Sticks out in this field. Stuck out in being the last man on the leader board after 36 holes. MC.

Brian Harman (+4000): Last year was the first year in 10 he didn’t play. He’s back this year and playing well on TOUR. Interesting. Plus 3 needed to be plus 2. MC.

Funny Money

Matt Jones (+4500): Hit it GREAT last week at Riviera (T15) and was T3 at Sentry on big Bermuda. Made nothing except his reservation for dinner Friday night. MC.

Jhonattan Vegas/Mito Pereira (+4500): Load ’em both. T42 and T30.

Ryan Palmer (+5500): My lean is veterans this week and he more than qualifies. Can also handle the breeze. Opened with 68 and went backwards! T70.

KH Lee (+6600): Solid solid solid but is going the wrong way here! MC-T38-T7. T48 is another made cut!

Lucas Glover (+7000): Four of the last five T21 or better and this is his part of the world. 67 on Sunday for T30.

Sam Ryder (+12500): Top 10 last year and T26-T23 in his last two on TOUR. Owns a 63 here. T9 as he loves his native Florida and Honda!

Sepp Straka (+14000): Closed like a madman for T15 at Riviera. I’ll jump on! This pleases me. WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER.

Beau Hossler (+14000): The harder the track, the better. T16 as his very steady play continues from the West Coast.

Kramer Hickok (+17500): T21-T30 last two years with half of those rounds in the 60s. Another “half” but 69-78 hahaha.

Ryan Armour (+20000): He should hit every fairway. 22 of 28 wasn’t enough to play the weekend. MC.

Brice Garnett (+27500): T25-T11 last two years. Get healthy! Made THREE DOUBLES and MC by a shot!

This Week – Arnold Palmer Invitational

A king’s ransom is fitting for The King and his first place check this week at Bay Hill.

Long and strong was Arnold Palmer off the tee and that is what works this week. Par 72 is in play with driver for the first time since Torrey Pines almost 7,700 yards but it’s the ball-striking in general that should get a deeper look this week.

Par-3 holes start at 199 yards and go from there.

Forced water carries from bunkers and 3 inches of rough aren’t rare.

Big misses are hit with big penalties so keeping it on the planet is required.

Playing from the fairway will have massive advantages as to stopping the approaches on the right sections of the generous greens.

TifEagle will roll true but there’s always the grain to deal with for those who aren’t enamored with the surface.

Bogeys will be had just like they were at Honda last week but four Par-5 holes can help mitigate those blemishes.

Class handles this annually I don’t see why that would change this time around.

Thoughts on Chalk (My plays will be obvious)

Jon Rahm (+800): First timer here should be respected but not feared. Interesting to see where his game is after a quiet, frustrating Riviera.

Rory McIlroy (+1200): Those of you, like me, who are on him this week will thank Rahm for being in the field or Rors would be hovering around that number! Don’t forget he had the best putting week of his life here in 2018. That cannot hurt his mindset! Win.

Viktor Hovland (+1600): IT’S A TRAP! Never finished inside the top 40 here. It’s okay to leave him alone for a week and let him tune up for THE PLAYERS.

Scottie Scheffler (+1600): What bothers him now? Wins then backs it with a top 10 at Riviera. Weird he didn’t play here in 2021 after 2020. Did he have Covid? I can’t remember.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2500): I can’t figure out how he only has 1 top 10 here from 7 starts. Next best is T18.

Will Zalatoris (+2800): Only broke par once here last year even thought he was T10.

Sungjae Im (+3000): He loves it at Honda more and we know how that turned out. I’d expect a bounce back this week but I’m not leading that charge.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000): WD at Riviera in the Pro-Am with an illness and didn’t play the event. Shame as he was bubbling with form. 3 straight on the bounce here in the top 10 so let’s make it four. Beware the rested golfer? Top 10.

33-1 or Worse Select Opinions

Marc Leishman (+3500): I don’t love him blindly here but he’s just been churning out steady performances on TOUR. The news would be if he’s not in the top 20

Keith Mitchell (+4000): T12 or better in his last three on TOUR and has the tools for this set up. Top 10. Skinny win ticket.

Billy Horschel (+4500): Knockin’. Let ’em him. Top 10.

Max Homa (+4500): Can’t set it up hard enough for him. Proper ball-striker.

Russell Henley (+6600): Interesting not to see him at Honda. I’ll be watching intently this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6600): Only one top 10 on TOUR and it’s here. Not sure there’s value in this.

Chris Kirk (+8000): I’m gonna catch it, promise.

Lanto Griffin (+10000): Lovely form and loves flying under the radar.

Funny Money

Lucas Glover (+14000)

Dylan Frittelli (+16000)

Beau Hossler (+20000)

Cameron Davis (+20000)

Sean O’Hair (+30000) – Top 40

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out through Twitter or email me mikeglasscott@gmail.com.

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