Betting Angles: BMW Championship

BMW Championship

Bellerive Country Club

St. Louis, Missouri

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NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseBellerive Country Club (1960)
Yards (per official scorecard):7,448 yards.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:T-1 Bentgrass; 8,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:12.5 feet.
Rough:Fescue and Bluegrass at four inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play11 holes with water
Architect(s):Robert Trent Jones (1960); Rees Jones (2005; 2019).
Defending Champion (event):Scottie Scheffler (Caves Valley).
Multiple Champion (event) Entered:Patrick Cantlay (2021-22).
Course Record:63; Brooks Koepka (Round 2, 2018 PGA Championship).
Fact of the Week:The last two events played at Bellerive were the 2018 PGA Championship and the 2008 BMW Championship (Camilo Villegas).

Notes:

  • Field of 50 players. The top 30 players in the FedExCup points standings will advance to the TOUR Championship next week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.
  • 19 of the top 20 OWGR are entered.
  • $20 million – $3.6 million to the winner plus 750 FedEx Cup points.

Recent Winners – BMW Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Scottie SchefflerWon the second event at Caves Valley by two shots over Robert MacIntyre.
2024Keegan BradleyFinished one stroke better than Sam Burns, Ludvig Aberg, and Adam Scott at Castle Pines outside Denver.
2023Viktor HovlandKnocked off Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick on his way to winning the FedExCup the following week.
2022Patrick CantlayBecame the first and only player to successfully defend the championship in the FedExCup era.
2021Patrick CantlaySet the tournament scoring record of 27-under-par at Caves Valley. Won in a playoff over DeChambeau.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young
Valspar ChampionshipMatt Fitzpatrick
Houston OpenGary Woodland
Valero Texas OpenJ.J. Spaun
Masters TournamentRory McIlroy
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick (2)
Zurich ClassicMatt Fitzpatrick (3); Alex Fitzpatrick
Cadillac ChampionshipCameron Young (2)
Truist ChampionshipKristoffer Reitan (first-time winner)
108th PGA ChampionshipAaron Rai
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonWyndham Clark
Charles Schwab ChallengeRussell Henley
Memorial TournamentJT Poston
RBC Canadian OpenBud Cauley (first-time winner)
United States OpenWyndham Clark
Travelers ChampionshipViktor Hovland
John Deere ClassicChris Gotterup (3)
Genesis Scottish OpenTom Kim
The 154th Open ChampionshipRyan Fox
3M OpenJackson Koivun (first-time winner)
Rocket ClassicMichael Thorbjornsen (first-time winner)
Wyndham ChampionshipMichael Brennan
  
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first-time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSShane Lowrymc0
Valspar ChampionshipJacob BridgemanT14161,525
Houston OpenChris GotterupT6322,987
Valero Texas OpenSudarshan YellamarajuT14159,250
MastersJon RahmT38101,250
RBC HeritageRussell HenleyT30142,750
Zurich ClassicAlex FitzpatrickWIN1,375,000
Cadillac ChampionshipGary WoodlandT3872,182
Truist ChampionshipRory McIlroyT19242,100
108th PGA ChampionshipBryson DeChambeauMC0
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonSi Woo Kim2nd1,122,700
Charles SchwabJ.J. SpaunT3322,987
Memorial TournamentJordan SpiethMC0
RBC Canadian OpenZach BauchouMC0
United States OpenXander SchauffeleT11405,862
Travelers ChampionshipBrian HarmanT24154,500
John Deere ClassicJT PostonT5121,358
Genesis Scottish OpenMatt FitzpatrickT3431,887
The Open ChampionshipTyrrell HattonT6940,800
3M OpenPierceson CoodyMC0
Rocket ClassicHideki MatsuyamaT5370,000
Wyndham ChampionshipRyan GerardMC0
FedEx St. Jude ChampJustin Thomas  

Last WEEK – FedEx St. Jude Championship

I should have taken my own advice in this column

From last week (copied, pasted):

The Choice: Justin Thomas

The SMART play is probably Burns (T3) on his preferred surface, or Clark (T5) for his boom/bust upside.

I am way past the “smart” point of the proceedings…

After all his close calls this season, Burns is a tough laydown, and Aberg (T7) is not too far behind. As usual, I default to my upbringing, Horses for Courses, and will ride with the 2020 winner on this track of the WGC-BI. Burns or Aberg will be the choice next week, unless Hovland (T19) pops back into one of his ridiculous heaters.

Thomas (T47), who has not won since 2025 Harbour Town, currently resides at No. 38 and needs a big finish this week or next to force his way into the Top 30. The 16-time winner shouldn’t have any scar tissue to worry about if he is in the fight on Sunday afternoon in Memphis.

For those of you with Matsuyama (T7) in the stable, time to get the saddle on!

This Week – BMW Championship

Last week, I listed five players for Memphis.

Four of them hit T7 or better.

One of them was T47.

The hottest player (non-winners division): Burns, Matsuyama, Aberg, or Schauffele.

The hottest player (Scottie Scheffler division): Scottie Scheffler

The Pick: Wyndham Clark

DraftKings Markets & Parlays

The BMW Championship is the second of three legs in the FedExCup Playoffs. The defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, sent a loud and clear message last week announcing his intention to add another FedExCup championship to his mantle. Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis provides four more rounds to book a final place inside the top 30 for those on the outside looking in to qualify for the TOUR Championship in Atlanta next week. DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of markets to get involved.

Winner Without Scottie Scheffler – Ludvig Aberg (+1375)  or Kurt Kitayama (+3700)

Let’s try this again! Scheffler, who ran away from the field on Sunday to win by eight shots last week in Memphis, left solo second place to Si Woo Kim. If you believe, as I do, that Scheffler has found top gear and will not be looking back, there are a couple of plays I like in this market.

Of the top choices, many will turn to Sam Burns, but I am backing Aberg. Posting three rounds in the 60s last week, only a third-round 74 knocked him out of contention. The extra yardage on the scorecard fits his precise long-iron game perfectly, and not many make more birdies (6th Birdie Average).

Kitayama, a two-time TOUR winner like Aberg, can also give it a ride. He ranks 31st in Strokes-Gained: Off the Tee and 10th in SG: Approach the Green, two excellent metrics to sort out on an unfamiliar Bellerive Country Club layout. Racking up Greens in Regulation is his calling card. Paying them off with a marginal putter is why this number is where it is. The good news is that he ranks 31st in Bogey Avoidance. Live to fight another day!

Top 5 (including ties) – Sam Burns (+280)

He will be one of the few players disappointed in the weather forecast this week. The normally insufferable summer heat in St. Louis shifts to temperatures in the 80s. The winds from the north will blow out the stagnant, thick, river air. Since the birth of his daughter BEFORE The Open Championship, the new dad has been playing with house money. His arrival at Royal Birkdale was last-minute and he ended up leading after 54 holes, nearly winning the event (T3). Returning to the States, he shot 62 in Round 3 in Memphis to earn a spot in the final group with his buddy, Scheffler. Finishing T3, he cashed a check in the top 3 in three of his last four starts on TOUR. The aggressive play would be to play him in the “Without Scheffler” market. I can live in this space.

Outside Looking in Long Shot – Top 10 (including ties) – Rickie Fowler (+295)

I had a nice hit in this space last week with Sungjae Im (+495) in Memphis, and I am running it back this week with No. 30. The six-time winner, who last won in 2023 in Detroit, is being chased by 20 guys looking to take his 30th and final ticket for Atlanta. Fowler, like the rest of the field this week, has already qualified for the Signature Events in 2027. Booking his place in the top 30 would qualify him and the 29 others for every major event next season. His sixth top-10 payday of the season would result in a winning ticket and would be his fifth from a Signature or FedExCup Playoff event. He enters the week with a round of 66 or better in five consecutive events.

The Ladder – Top 20 (including ties), Top 30 (including ties), and Top 40 (including ties): Same Game Parlay – Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim, and Nico Echavarria (+131)

Let’s try this one again!

To have this exercise pay PLUS money, I needed one of the longer shots in the Top 40 category. Nico Echavarria, ranked 42nd of 50 players this week, is the man for the job. The winner at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches earlier this season, he arrives at the Par-70, 7,448-yard layout fresh off a T12 payday last week in Memphis, preceded by another T12 paycheck at the Wyndham Championship the week before. There is plenty of heat in this threesome, and the guy pulling up the rear is not dead weight!

Schauffele is on a run of T18-2nd-T7 in his last three on TOUR, and Kim, the winner of the B Flight last week in Memphis, is having the best season of his career, 11 top-10 paydays, even without a victory. He racked up three of those 11 paydays in his last four starts. I only need T30 or better this week.

Winning Score O/U 261.5 – Over (-154)

According to the great Rob Bolton, 17 players who teed it up at the 2018 PGA Championship are returning to Bellerive Country Club. All 18 greens have been regressed and rebuilt since the best players in the world have visited, so any course knowledge on the putting surfaces is out the window. Over the years, the BMW Championship has produced winning totals of 27-under (Patrick Cantlay – Caves Valley 2022) to 4-under (Jon Rahm – Olympia Fields 2020). The last four years, including return visits to Caves Valley (Scottie Scheffler -15) and Olympia Fields (Viktor Hovland -17), have not produced a winning total better than 18-under. With blustery conditions in the forecast, plus the modifications made after a major championship, I will play OVER the posted total.

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