AT&T Byron Nelson

Full refunds to everyone for last week’s absence.

I didn’t expect my travel time to be 13 hours!

Here’s a peek inside:

AT&T Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch

McKinney, Texas

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Betting Stat Pack – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Odds Outlook – click here


Another week in Texas, this time in the Dallas suburb of McKinney.

One more to go as Colonial will bookend the PGA Championship and it appears that all three events will NOT have Jordan Spieth. The Texan WD on Monday night citing a wrist deal that “needs rest”. Spieth almost caught two-time and defending champion KH Lee last year, but fell one short of a playoff.

The field of 156 is thin with only 11 of the top 50 entered. Scottie Scheffler leads the way but Tom Kim and Tyrrell Hatton are the only others in the top 20.

Mother Nature is going to factor this week. Watch @robboltongolf for the updates.

Host CourseTPC Craig Ranch
Yards (per official scorecard):7,414
Par:71 (36-35).
Stimpmeter:Almost 12 feet.
Rough:Bermudagrass almost three inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In Play83/4/13
Architect(s):Tom Weiskopf (2004).
Purse:$9.5 million; $1.71 million winner plus 500 FedExCup points.
Defending Champion (event):KH Lee.
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:KH Lee (2).
Course Record:60; Sebastian Munoz, 2022.
72 Hole Tournament Record:26-under; KH Lee.
Fact of the Week:Third event at this course. KH Lee has won the previous two.
Fact of the Week II:Winner will get in the 105th PGA Championship next week if not already qualified.
Fact of the Week III:Top 5 easiest course on TOUR the last two years.


  • Field of 156 players.
  • Top 65 and ties make the cut.
  • TPC Craig Ranch also hosted the 2008 and 2012 Finals.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

Fortinet ChampionshipMax Homa
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipMackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipSeamus Power
Mayakoba ChampionshipRussell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston OpenTony Finau
The RSM ClassicAdam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)

Recent Winners at TPC Craig Ranch

Italics – not entered this week

2022KH Lee (-26)Came from four back to close with 63 and win by one to defend his only title on TOUR.
2021KH Lee (-25)Won the first event at TPC Craig Ranch comfortably by three shots.

Chalk (via BetMGM)

Scottie Scheffler (+350): When the mid-20s are the target, I can’t wrap my head around this number. Sure, he has all of the tools, but there are 155 others who can also make a bundle of birdies. Nobody is arguing he’s not the best player in the field. I’m not trying to figure THAT out!

Tyrrell Hatton (+1200): Very solid week last week, as I thought would be the case, on a tough layout. Hatton’s record the week before majors recently hasn’t inspired me this week. His short game/putting might change my mind. The finicky weather will turn this place upside down I believe.

Tom Kim (+1400): Odds dropping since Monday. Has no problem going low and finding fairways. Big greens will help and so will a cooperative putter. He made his 2022 TOUR debut here last year as well (T17). I’ll start here.

Jason Day (+1600): Vertigo symptoms have returned recently. If he’s 100 percent, which I’m not sure is the case, this place fits him PERFECTLY. Bomb, gouge and hole everything. 

Hideki Matsuyama (+2200): Another whose health is in question. I’ve learned over the years if a guy is ENTERED, he’s ready to go. I’ve also learned that a major championship is NEXT FREAKING WEEK and if it turns sour, they probably will err on the side of caution. Just like I’m going to do! Pass.

KH Lee (+2200): Nobody thought he would defend last year. Rolls in on T8 from Wells Fargo so he’s not trying to find it. Heck, he FOUND IT here last year as he had not signed for anything in the top 20 all of last SEASON. He’s the boss until he isn’t.

Matt Kuchar(+2500): T32 or better in 2023 with four top 10s. Streak is T23-T19-T3-T9 since MC at THE PLAYERS. Best of the bunch was T3 at a demanding TPC San Antonio Oaks Course before the Masters. T23 last week in another big ballpark suggests he’s on it.

Top 10/Top 20/Top 40

Adam Scott (+3300) – Picked up his first top 10 in a lonnnnnnnnnng time last week. Ride it.

Taylor Montgomery (+4000) – Hits it a mile and is super putter. Big targets will bring bigger confidence.

Stephan Jaeger (+5000) – Too many low rounds in his life. Should be embracing this week. Top 30 scoring average. GIR machine.

Will Gordon (+6600) – Smashes it and can hole putts.

Adam Schenk (+8000) – New dad.

Jimmy Walker (+8000) – Texan has found a vein of form. Keeping pegging him for top 20s until he falls off.

Dylan Wu (+9000) – Top 40, 20 and 10, just in case this heater boils over.

Longer Shots

Use ’em wherever you see fit! All players listed are +10000 or worse and are for a reason or two!

Andrew Novak (+12500) – Let’s see if that chip on the shoulder is still there.

Matthew NeSmith (+12500) – Make a few putts.

Ryan Palmer (+12500) – Embraces the conditions.

Kevin Chappell (+20000) – Former winner in San Antonio.

Sean O’Hair (+25000) – Veteran from Lubbock.

OAD – 2023 Spotter’s Game

Already Burned
Sungjae Im – Maui
Tom Kim – Sony
Tom Hoge – AMEX
Viktor Hovland – Pebble
Xander Schauffele – WMPO
Max Homa – Riviera
Shane Lowry – Honda
Tyrrell Hatton – API
Akshay Bhatia – PRO
Justin Rose – Valspar
Cam Percy – Corales
Scottie Scheffler – WGC MP
Rickie Fowler – Valero
Jordan Spieth – Masters
Collin Morikawa – RBC Heritage
Billy Horschel – Zurich
Nicolai Hojgaard – Mexico
Rory McIlroy – WFC

This Week – AT&T Byron Nelson

Adam Scott

Trying a new country for disappointment.

Others to consider: KH Lee, Tom Hoge, Brandon Wu, Min Woo Lee

Last Week – Wells Fargo Championship

Rory McIlroy – Who cares. T47. Just terrible.

Others to consider: Max Homa T8, Rickie Fowler – T14 , Jason Day – MC, Viktor Hovland – T43


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