Zurich Classic of New Orleans

@Zurich_Classic

The two best friends that anyone could have!

Zurich Classic of New Orleans

TPC Louisiana

Avondale, Louisiana

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Eyes On (odds via Bet365.com)

Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele (4/1): Teammates too many times to count in international competitions, the California duo makes their fourth consecutive appearance in New Orleans. The buddies have cashed T4-WIN-T11 and are more than comfortable on this course and at this event. Both players rank in the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings, the only team who can claim that. Cantlay picked up his annual podium at Harbor Town last week and Schauffele has cashed in the top 10 in eight of his last 11 starts.

Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry (15/2): Making their Zurich Classic debut, the international Ryder Cup teammates pair up for the first time on TOUR. The Florida neighbors are looking for the spark this spring to shift them into gear for the PGA Championship next month in Louisville. They won’t miss many fairways and greens, but two-putting every green won’t work in this cut-throat birdie-fest.

Sahith Theegala & Will Zalatoris (15/2): Running second to Scheffler last week, Theegala added another big finish to his last eight months on TOUR. The winner at Fortinet last fall has five top-10 paydays in 11 starts this season. Zalatoris, who cashed T4 with Nick Hardy in 2022 before missing last season with back surgery, has also been hot on TOUR. Picking up three paydays in his last six starts, the best of the bunch is T2 at The Genesis Invitational at Riviera. First appearance together.

Collin Morikawa & Kurt Kitayama (12/1): Back-to-back top-10 paychecks the last two weeks have turned the spotlight back on the two-time major champion. Partnerships with Hovland and Homa haven’t cracked the code so he’s trying his neighbor in Las Vegas. Kitayama has only missed one cut this season but has never missed the weekend in two trips to the Big Easy. Another pair that will need at least one putter to get Creole hot!

Nicolai Hojgaard & Rasmus Hojgaard (20/1): TWINS! After cashing T16 on his first visit to the Masters, the higher-rated Dane missed the cut at Corales. Playing four weeks in a row, he will be energized with his brother joining the action. Rasmus is playing for the first time since WD at the Hero Indian Open four weeks ago. There’s no time to be rusty when the cut usually requires 7-under or better to see the weekend.

Tom Hoge & Maverick McNealy (25/1): Too bad this event isn’t at Pebble Beach! Feasting on small greens, TPC Louisiana will provide slightly bigger targets than the famous coastal links. Hoge has never missed a start here since his 2015 debut. Missing the cut in two of the last three editions, this is the fourth consecutive year he’s used a different partner. McNealy, who missed twice with Joseph Bramlett, is the next man up. Cashing in eight straight, he navigated TPC Sawgrass for T9. Dating back to last fall, Hoge has rattled off 12-straight weekends and would have had another top 10 save for a NINE on the final hole at Harbour Town. Super ball-striker meets super short-gamer.

Nick Taylor & Adam Hadwin (25/1): Beginning the week 33/1, the Canadian duo has moved up the board the last two days. Already a winner this season at TPC Scottsdale, Taylor knows he’s auditioning with Hadwin this week for International Captain Mike Weir and the 2024 Presidents Cup in Montreal this September. Cashing in five straight events, Hadwin has produced three top-10 paydays in his last eight tournaments. Cashing T13 on debut in 2022, the runners-up from 2023 posted 63 in Foursomes in the final round, tying the record in that format. I’m expecting another big week.

Billy Horschel & Tyson Alexander (33/1): Teacher and pupil. The University of Florida Gators should be comfortable in the swamp. Winning last week in the Dominican Republic will just add to the fire for Horschel. Alexander has quietly cashed in his last three and six of eight.

Taylor Moore & Matt NeSmith (45/1): The first two times they partnered up, they shared fourth place each time. Opening with 60 in 2022, they returned last year to post 26-under, a score that would have won four of the six previous editions.

Davis Thompson & Andrew Novak (45/1): The birdie machine, Thompson, pairs up with the SG: Approach machine, Novak. The Sea Island pals have been piling up the top-25 results individually in early 2024.

Kevin Yu & C.T. Pan (70/1): Trying to prove to Mike Weir that they should be included in the Presidents Cup, the duo from Taiwan will rely on tight ball-striking to give the putters plenty of chances to heat up. The top 10 results have dried up since the calendar changed to March. Countrymen coming together should inspire.

Pierceson Coody & Parker Coody (80/1): The twins from Texas both found the top 20 last week in the Dominican Republic. Pierceson signed for T18, and Parker cashed his best finish on TOUR with T6. Pushing each other, they won’t need any impetus to get it going in the bayou this week.

Charley Hoffman & Nick Watney (300/1): One of only two teams to play in the previous six events, the veteran duo will rely on the recent form of Hoffman. The Southern California native ran second in Phoenix and shared fourth last week at Corales. Watney’s best days are possibly behind him, but if there’s one final charge, this tournament may provide it.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseTPC Louisiana
Yards (per official scorecard):7,425.
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Poa Trivialis overseed (TifEagle Bermuda); 5,225 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12.5 feet.
Second Cut:Ryegrass Overseed at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play106/7/8.
Architect(s):Pete Dye (2004).
Defending Champion (event):Nick Hardy & Davis Riley (-30)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:No team has won twice.
Course Record (latest):59; Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele (2022, Round 1).
72 Hole Tournament Record (April):258; Nick Hardy and Davis Riley.
Fact of the Week:All six winning totals have been 20-under par or better.

TPC Louisiana

The fourth Pete Dye design of the season and second course in back-to-back weeks, TPC Louisiana opened in 2004.

Hosting the Zurich Classic of New Orleans every year save two since 2005, no other course has hosted the team event since the 2017 inception. Every edition of the team game has played at Par-72 and 7,425 yards.

Carved through the swamps of the bayou, 106 bunkers, eight holes with water penalty areas, and two inches of TifSport Bermuda rough complement the risk-reward concept.

Fairways are not generous and the putting surfaces rank inside the top five of smallest on TOUR, averaging just 5,225 square feet.

Poa Trivialis putting surfaces, common this time of year before the TifEagle takes over, will run at 12 feet.

Registering 30-under and 29-under to win in the last two editions, four of the six winning totals have been 26-under or better. The best way to factor in a shootout is pummel fairways and greens and convert those attempts into birdies. Making birdies and avoiding bogeys is the formula for success.

The stock Par-72 comes with four Par-5 holes that measure less than 590 yards. Cutting corners and doglegs plus handling forced carries will provide the temptations and reward the bold who execute.

The pressure of performing for the teammate will enter all decisions made.

Set in 2023 by Nick Hardy and Davis Riley, the tournament scoring record is 30-under-par.

The Four-balls (Best Ball) record is 59, produced by Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele in Round 1 of 2022.

The Foursomes (Alternate Shot) record is 63, last accomplished by Nick Taylor & Adam Hadwin in Round 4 in 2023. Cantlay & Schauffele also matched this mark in 2023 in Round 2.

Recent Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)

Zurich Classic

After a major championship and a Signature Event, the partner’s game makes it three weeks in a row with a completely different vibe.

The field of 160 players divided into two-man teams includes 15 of the top 50 from the Official World Golf Rankings and 27 players who teed it up last week at Harbour Town, another Pete Dye track.

Defending champions Hardy & Riley join Cantlay & Schauffele as the only previous team champions in the field.

Billy Horschel, paired with Tyson Alexander this week, is the only player in the field to win the team title (2018 with Scott Piercy) and the individual stroke play title (2013), his first victory on TOUR.

Nick Watney (2007), playing with Charley Hoffman, and Jason Dufner (2012), playing with Kevin Chappell, are the only other players in the field to win the individual title.

Scott Piercy (2018), playing with Harry Hall, and Ryan Palmer (2019), playing with Zach Johnson have won the team titles with different partners. Winning by three shots in 2019, Palmer has the record for margin of victory.

After one round of Four-balls (Best Ball) and one round of Foursomes (Alternate Shot), the field will be cut to the top 33 teams and ties.

The final two rounds will be Four-balls followed by Foursomes.

The winners will each take home 400 FedExCup points and $1.268 million of the $8.9 million purse.

This is the second of three events (Corales, Zurich, and CJ Cup) that will count towards the Aon Next 10 and Aon Swing 5 for the Wells Fargo Championship in two weeks.

Recent Winners – Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Nick Hardy & Davis Riley (-30)First win on TOUR for both players in their first partnership. Defeated Canadians Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin by two shots.
2022Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele   (-29)Posted 29-under thru 54 holes to win comfortably.
2021Marc Leishman & Cameron Smith (-20)Needed a playoff to defeat South African duo Schwartzel and Oosthuizen. Highest winning total.
2020No Event 
2019Ryan Palmer & Jon Rahm (-26)Winning by three shots over Tommy Fleewtood & Sergio Garcia set the event record for margin of victory.
2018Billy Horschel & Scott Piercy (-22)Not even two double bogeys, the most by a winning team to date, could slow down this pair. Horschel has won both the team and stroke play events here.
2017Jonas Blixt & Cam Smith (-27)Defeated Kevin Kisner & Scott Brown in a playoff to win the first edition.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
WM Phoenix OpenMatt Fitzpatrick156,200
The Genesis InvitationalMax Homa329,000
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau145,125
Cognizant ClassicRussell Henley32,850
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler4,000,000
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipWill Zalatoris0
Valspar ChampionshipSam Burns0
Texas Children’s Houston OpenWyndham Clark54,418
Valero Texas OpenC Bezuidenhout67,735
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy175,500
RBC HeritagePatrick Cantlay1,160,000
   
Total Winnings: 7,210,845

His game has more fun stuff to it. Reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – RBC Heritage

MY CHOICE: Patrick Cantlay – T3

I love it when a plan goes according to, well the plan.

Moving forward, I might have to shift him to AUTO PICK for this event, especially if it remains a Signature Event. Always nice to catch a million plus without having to win.

Onward!

Others to Consider:

Matt Fitzpatrick: Other than what I wrote above, this is his spiritual home on TOUR. T28 as the spirit did not move him this time around, sadly.

Scottie Scheffler: Save your money for the majors or Augusta North (Muirfield Village Golf Club). Those of you who didn’t listen, congratulations. Those of you who have just not timed this correctly, be patient, I think he’ll win again. Let’s just hope it’s another BIG BOI event!

Jordan Spieth: Colonial instead. He suggested at the Masters that his wrist will need looking after at some point. T39.

Shane Lowry: Please, fire away. It was Cantlay or bust for me. Literally whiffed on everything else on Hilton Head. T64 in a 69-person field.

Cameron Davis: I cannot get off him this week so fade accordingly. Tried to save you from me. T49.

This Week – Zurich Classic of New Orleans

MY CHOICE: Nick Taylor

The NHL Playoffs are here. The Presidents Cup is coming soon. Whoa, Canada!

Taylor and partner Adam Hadwin ran second in 2023 and are playing well on TOUR.

This format does not require the best player to win. It requires the best team. I’m relying on the countrymen from the Great White North to get it over the finish line.

Others to Consider:

Sahith Theegala: Shit-hot fire for months, I don’t believe Zalatoris will be the cooler to his heat. I’m not using him this week because I’m saving him for a bigger purse.

Shane Lowry: I’m getting that feeling we missed the Florida window to play him. BUT, you get a free double shot of McIlroy if you go this route. Now, who’s gonna make some putts?

Rasmus Hojgaard: The DP World Tour member won’t play many over here so this is a free roll if you believe in TWINS.

Alex Fitzpatrick: See above minus TWINS.

Joel Dahmen: Comes with Keith Mitchell, batteries not included. They might hit every fairway and every green, but Dahmen is 181st in SG: Putting and Mitchell is 142nd.

Matt NeSmith: Comes with Taylor Moore, who has made a million cuts in a row, and they have finished T4 the last two years. In the last two years, NeSmith has not played this poorly leading into the event. I’d prefer a top-20 ticket over OAD.

Tyson Alexander: Comes with Billy Horschel, a two-time winner here since 2013 and victor last week at Puntacana.

Good luck! You’ll need it!

Valero Texas Open Preview

The stars at night

Are big and bright

Deep in the heart of Texas

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio

Oaks Course

San Antonio, Texas

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Odds OutlookDFS ReportHorses for Courses/Stats SuggestExpert Picks

Bet365: Top of the Board  

Rory McIlroy (10/1): The only victory that matters is the first one at Augusta National next week. The OWGR No. 2 has found the winner’s circle multiple times before major championships, so he’s not an automatic fade this week. Cashing T19 at THE PLAYERS for his best finish in the States in five events suggests investing elsewhere.

Ludvig Aberg (12/1): Too young to have a “plan” knocking over another field before his first major championship would not surprise anyone reading this column. With four years of college experience in the wind of Lubbock, Texas, he will not be bothered by any of Mother Nature’s challenges. Heading to the Masters next week, his only concern this week is winning. Sign me up.

Hideki Matsuyama (20/1): The 2021 Masters champion has produced the goods in his last three starts (T16-T12-WIN). The goal this week is getting dialed in tee-to-green, and everything else is gravy. If he is in contention on Sunday, he’s not going to back down. If he’s not in contention on Sunday, do not be surprised if he saves on fuel for next week.

Jordan Spieth (22/1): Picking up his trophy boots after the 2021 edition before heading to his favorite event, the Dallas native needs a pick-me-up before returning to Augusta in 2024. A pair of early weekend exits and a DQ for an incorrect scorecard muted his strong start after Kapalua (3rd) and TPC Scottsdale (T6). A big weekend at the Oaks Course wouldn’t surprise me. Neither would a quiet one. Sigh.

Max Homa (25/1): The more demanding the track, the more focus the Californian brings. Wins at Qual Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Riviera accentuate that theory. Strangely, his success at Augusta National is almost non-existent. Picking up this event tells me he needs to find some confidence before next week. Making his first visit to the Oaks Course since 2019 suggests he has left it late.

Corey Conners (25/1): Not many enjoy a horse for a course more than I do. Two wins, 16 rounds in the red, and nothing worse than T35 over five starts will not push me away. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1): Teeing it up for the first time in Hill Country, the Englishman is riding high off solo fifth in the last outing at TPC Sawgrass. Gaining strokes tee-to-green isn’t an issue; neither is chipping and putting. Tough laydown this week.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Billy Horschel (33/1): I will pair his current form with his experience at the Oaks Course. A winner up the road in Austin at the WGC-Match Play in 2021, he should be excited to return to a happy hunting ground. The Florida native has cashed T11 or better in five of his last eight visits.

Harris English (35/1): Pure heat. Not missing a cut in 2024, he has cashed out T21 or better in his last four starts.

Byeong Hun An (40/1): With three top-10 paydays in his first seven starts in 2024, I’m hoping a missed cut at THE PLAYERS kicks a few off the scent. He’s comfortable where he’s comfortable. Producing two top-seven paydays in his last three visits suggest he’s comfortable outside San Antonio.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50/1): Running as my second choice at Valspar, he produced T9 and his best result of the season. I can’t leave him out at an event that has crowned plenty of first-time winners. All aboard!

Akshay Bhatia (60/1): Collecting T17 at Valspar is his worst paycheck from five weekends (nine starts) in the new season. Sitting one shot off the lead at the halfway point at Memorial Park last Sunday, he knows the only way to Augusta is winning THIS week.

Lee Hodges (90/1): Posted 12-under over his last 54 holes here last year. Not overthinking this the week before a major! 

Charley Hoffman (125/1): The horse for the course. The 2016 winner has 10 paydays of T22 or better, including three seconds/T2.

Matti Schmid (125/1): Always looking to add a hot runner to the stable, the German, no doubt inspired by Jaeger’s win last week, has run his streak to T26 or better in the last four weeks. I should add him above for a Top 20 just in case!

Matt Kuchar (140/1): Never missing the weekend in 11 starts, he returns after a four-year run of T3-T2-T12-T7. While his current form hasn’t produced a top-30 payday in 2024, maybe the Fountain of Youth is by way of the Alamo.

Aaron Baddeley (175/1): The Australian has cashed T30 or better in eight of nine. Never missing the cut, he makes his first visit since T18 2022.

Sam Stevens (250/1): Missed a playoff by a shot last year. Wind doesn’t bother him. Top 40 to start.

Peter Kuest (400/1): Monday qualifier with absolutely nothing to lose, he registered last year in Par-5 scoring and Putting: Birdie or Better Percentage over 15 events. Everyone needs a long shot to find the weekend.

Mike Glasscott: Valero Texas Open tips

OUTRIGHT – Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50/1)  

TOP 10 – Ludvig Aberg (8/5), Billy Horschel (15/4)

TOP 20 – Corey Conners (29/20), Charley Hoffman (17/4)

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseTPC San Antonio – Oaks Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,438.
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Poa Trivialis; 6,400 square feet.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye and Fescue at 2.25 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play64/3/3
Architect(s):Greg Norman (2010).
Defending Champion (event):Corey Conners (-15).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Corey Conners (2023, 2019).
Course Record (latest):62; Trey Mullinax (2018, Round 3).
72 Hole Tournament Record268; Corey Conners (2019).
Fact of the Week:There has never been a playoff since the Oaks Course became the host (2010).
Fact of the Week II:The winner this week, if not already qualified, will take the final place in the field at the Masters.

TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, designed in 2010 by Greg Norman, plays as a stock Par-72 and can reach 7,438 yards. 

The ball-striking examination includes surviving missed fairways and greens. The recipe for success includes avoiding the big misses that come with big penalties. The rough this week will be only 2 ¼ inches, but the bunker count is 64, and there are water penalty areas on three holes. The breezes that blow in this part of the world will require a commitment to tee shots and irons.

Perched greens, 6,400 square feet on average, require quality shots for scoring opportunities. Poorly struck shots will drift into heavy bunkering or down closely mown areas. Running at 11 feet on the Stimpmeter, the pros will not have to worry about getting putts to the hole or the wind blowing their approaches off the putting surfaces.

Each nine has a pair of Par-5 holes. Together, the quartet annually ranks inside the top 12 most difficult on TOUR. If the wind cooperates, the first two, measuring over 600 yards, should play downwind. The remaining two on the inward nine, including the 591-yard finish hole with water, should provide drama coming home.

Paying off greens in regulation with birdie putts, scoring on the Par-5 holes, and getting up and down are the challenges presented in the Texas Hill Country.

In 13 previous editions, the Oaks Course ranked in the bottom half one time (2019). The 2022 edition was the only other event to play four rounds UNDER par.

The course record (62) was set in 2018 by Trey Mullinax (Round 3). 

Reigning and two-time champion Corey Conners produced the tournament scoring record in a benign 2019 edition on 20-under par 268.

Valero Texas Open

The Texas two-step of late March/early April is the first of two trips to the Lone Star state and the final tune-up for 30 players heading to the first major of the season next week.

Every year since 1923, San Antonio has hosted a professional event, and it is the longest-serving city hosting an event on the PGA TOUR.

Highlighted by World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, the field of 156 players includes 21 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. 

Sitting at No. 47 in the OWGR is Canadian Corey Conners, the only multiple winner from 13 previous events at the Oaks Course. The tournament record holder from 2019 returned last season and posted 15-under to win by a shot.

Joining the Canadian as past champions in the field this week are J.J. Spaun (2022), Jordan Spieth (2021), Andrew Landry (2018), Kevin Chappell (2017), Charley Hoffman (2016), local Jimmy Walker (2015), Martin Laird (2013), and inaugural winner Adam Scott (2010).

Spieth, Landry, and Walker are the only native Texans to win at the Oaks Course.

The last rookie to win this event was in 2006 at another course.

The last player to win on debut was the 2012 champion, Ben Crane.

In 13 events, six first-time PGA TOUR winners have been crowned, including four of the last six (bold above), including Conners in 2019.

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

On the line is a purse of $9.1 million, with the winner taking home $1.658 million and collecting 500 FedExCup points.

Most importantly, if the winner is not qualified, he will take the final spot in the field at the 88th Masters next week in the first major championship of 2024.

2023 Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)

Recent Winners – Valero Texas Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Corey Conners (-15)Held off Sam Stevens by a shot to become the first multiple winner at the Oaks Course.
2022J.J. Spaun (-13)Winning by two shots over Matt Kuchar, he picked up his first win on TOUR.
2021Jordan Spieth (-18)Defeated “The Mayor” Charley Hoffman by two shots.
2020No event 
2019Corey Conners (-20)Defeated “The Mayor” Charley Hoffman by two shots.
2018Andrew Landry (-17)Winning by two shots, picked up his first victory on TOUR.
2017Kevin Chappell (-12)Held off Brooks Koepka by a shot.
2016Charley Hoffman      (-12)Finally paid off his hot run in San Antonio.
2015Jimmy Walker (-11)Boerne, Texas, local resident became the first of three Texans to win (Landry and Spieth) at the Oaks Course.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
WM Phoenix OpenMatt Fitzpatrick156,200
The Genesis InvitationalMax Homa329,000
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau145,125
Cognizant ClassicRussell Henley32,850
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler4,000,000
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipWill Zalatoris0
Valspar ChampionshipSam Burns0
Texas Children’s Houston OpenWyndham Clark54,418
   
Total Winnings: 5,807,610

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Recapping Last Week – Texas Children’s Houston Open

MY CHOICE: Wyndham Clark – T31

Beware the injured golfer is only a phrase people use when they don’t take the injured golfer and he plays well.

After cashing behind Scheffler in the last two events, the U.S. Open champion stayed true to form as he cashed behind Scheffler again, but this time 29 extra places.

It would have been so easy just to take reigning champion Tony Finau, but there’s nothing easy about this game to me.

Whatever.

Other to Consider:

Sahith Theegala: I had trouble getting off of him this week and I might change it up before the bell sounds. Top-10 paydays from his last two events, a full bag, and he’s impossible not to like. T28 with four rounds of 70 or better. I don’t think throwing out the first pitch for opening day helped with the golf. At all. Especially for a guy who has never thrown a baseball, his words, not mine.

Tony Finau: I’ll wait until later in the summer when he finds some more. T2 sounds MUCH MUCH MUCH worse than what it “really” was. He shared second with, checks notes, FIVE OTHER DUDES. Instead of a nice payday, essentially he took home really good fourth-placed money. Win some, lose some, and meh some.

Jason Day: Proven record in Texas comes with a perfect 3-3 here. Burned me already this season on a course he loves at Torrey Pines. How can we dance when our beds are burning? Midnight Oil might have a better angle on trying to solve Day than I do. Is there another baby on the way? Is he hurt again? His last three events on tracks he’s played well over his career he hasn’t found the top 30. Glad I had him MC at Torrey Pines, just like you guys who had him this week.

Tom Hoge: TCU man has been produced a steady stream of results in 2024. Nobody made more feet of putts at TPC Sawgrass. Not many made more doubles or worse. Less water = mo money!  T14 and closed with three rounds in the 60s to continue his excellent start to 2024.

Lone Star Longshots:

Alex Noren: Ran T4 here in 2022 but has never lifted a trophy on TOUR. T11 after closing 66-65.

Aaron Rai: There’s no need, in this format at least, to drift down here, but some of you gotta ketchup. And catch up you did, T7.

Mackenzie Hughes: Less trouble off the tee, the better. Big week last week as well. T14 as he stormed home with 65 on Sunday. Hey, lock the back door then!

Cameron Champ/Chandler Phillips: Gig ‘em. I guess “gig ‘em” is Texan for T45.

Anybody with the last name Coody: Texas lads. Big jeans. Big genes. Pierceson T57, Parker MC.

This Week – Valero Texas Open

MY CHOICE: Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Too many good ones to ignore recently (T9, T13)! Hitting it great and full of confidence, there’s nothing to reset or reload after a week off. Already has a “victory” this year after Nick Dunlap won in Palm Springs, but he’d like one of his own!

Other to Consider:

Corey Conners: The “Finau” effect will rush over most of you this week. I don’t blame you. Sometimes, I have to fade myself.

Ludvig Aberg: Not a care in the world as he keeps producing big finishes and is prepping for his first major. Playing four years in Lubbock in the wind will prepare him for another big finish. Why am I not playing HIM this week?

Billy Horschel: Winner in Dallas and Austin, the proof is on in the trophy cabinet. With his excellent form and past excellent course form, he will be tempting for some.

Charley Hoffman: The all-time leading money winner at the Oaks Course already has a podium finish this season in Phoenix but has MC in his last three. San Antonio is chicken soup for his game.

Harris English: Another consistent performer, you might want to save him for Bermuda greens in the summer.

Lone Star Longshots:

Akshay Bhatia: The windier, the better. His only finishes this season are in the top 20.

Aaron Rai: Off T7 last week, did you think I would leave him out?

Matt Kuchar: Never missed and is T3-T2-T12-T7 in the last four years. You will have to check his current form…

Lanto Griffin: Veteran knows how to get it round if the breeze picks up.

Texas Children’s Houston Open

The first of four this spring in the Lone Star state takes us to the muni at Memorial Park.

Texas Children’s Houston Open

Memorial Park Golf Course

Houston, Texas

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Bet365: Top of the Board  

Scottie Scheffler (11/4): Trying to become the first player to defend the title at THE PLAYERS Championship, the Dallas resident is no stranger to making recent history. No player has won three straight entered events since Dustin Johnson in early 2017, but Scheffler has course history to rely upon here as well. Finishing T9 in 2022 came after holding the 54-hole lead in the 2021 tournament and finishing tied for second. Ball-Striking is a major factor this week, and nobody is doing it better on TOUR than the only multiple winner of 2024. Fade him at your own discretion.

Wyndham Clark (12/1) has been the bridesmaid to Scheffler in his previous two victories. Already a winner this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the 2023 U.S. Open champion lipped out a putt at THE PLAYERS Championship to force extra holes with the eventual champion. Cashing T16 on his last visit, he will not be flying blind this week.

Sahith Theegala (18/1) lives in the north suburb of Spring, Texas, and already has four top-10 paydays to his name in 2024, including his last two starts at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass. Breaking through winning the Fortinet Championship last September, the former Pepperdine man has not slowed down. This time last year, he was gearing up for his first appearance at the Masters, where he finished ninth on debut. With the rough down and trouble off the tee minimal, I would expect a big week from him.

Will Zalatoris (20/1) grew up in Dallas, so a bit of breeze will hardly bother his tee-to-green prowess. Making his tournament debut, he won’t have to navigate a point of reference from the previous fall editions. I know, I know, I tipped him at THE PLAYERS, and he easily missed the weekend. Taking on a new event to tune up for Augusta suggests he’s happy with where his game is, regardless of the result at TPC Sawgrass. Big, breezy, deep tracks (Torrey Pines, Southern Hills, Augusta National) rarely bothered him.

With three trophies from the state of Texas already on his mantle, Jason Day (22/1) returns to Memorial Park for the fourth time in search of another piece of hardware. Another who handles big tracks well (two-time winner at Torrey Pines), the Australian’s power and short game should line up nicely again this year. Never missing the cut in his first four visits, he’s posted eight of 12 rounds in the red.

Reigning champion Tony Finau (25/1) has only hit the top 10 once this season, and it was at one of his favorite stops, Torrey Pines GC. Missing the cut last week at Valspar after T45 at THE PLAYERS suggests he’s looking for a spark before the first major of the season in two weeks. The big hitter made over 415 feet of putts to win by four shots in 2022. Repeating that number would be a feat. I’ll pass.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Keith Mitchell (35/1) provides a quandary this week. Are we getting the back nine 31 on Saturday at Valspar or the 77 from the final group on Sunday? A superb driver of the golf ball, his short game will need a quick fix to contend again this week.

Mackenzie Hughes (50/1) won’t mind another week on big greens where his putter can get hot and stay hot. Like many this week, having big targets off the tee boxes and into the greens should grab his attention. Hitting the podium last week, he will remember this time last year when he was in the final eight of the WGC-Match Play up the street in Austin.

Tom Hoge (50/1) has been cruising along, under the radar for most of 2024. Outstanding with his iron play, he will have plenty of opportunities to pay them off on these big greens. Posting T28 or better in five straight before T54 at THE PLAYERS, five of his last eight resulted in T17 or better.

Jake Knapp (55/1) won at Vidanta Vallarta on Paspalum for his first TOUR victory. The Greg Norman layout didn’t have penal rough and featured huge greens. Oh, and he was on the podium at Torrey Pines. Dots connected.

Andrew Novak (100/1) continues to stripe it on approach, and that will travel again this week. After three straight top-10 paydays halted at THE PLAYERS, he ranked in the top 10 in SG: Approach last week and added T17 at Valspar to his impressive start to the season.

Playing college golf in the area at Texas A&M, Cameron Champ (110/1) should be comfortable in this part of the world. Bundle him with another Aggie, Chandler Phillips (140/1), who picked up his career-best payday of T3 last week at Valspar playing with Champ, and off to the window you go.

Robert MacIntyre (110/1) grabbed T6 at Vidanta Vallarta. Let’s see if the theory plays again this week. Missing the cut just once (THE PLAYERS) in his last five, he’s heating up with the weather.

Dylan Wu (175/1) has picked off T26, T19, and T24 in three of his last four. The best finish of the bunch was at THE PLAYERS Championship.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseMemorial Park Golf Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,435.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:Poa Trivialis; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye barely over an inch.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play21/2/4.
Architect(s):John Bredemus (1934); Tom Doak (2019).
Defending Champion (event):Tony Finau (-16).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record (latest):62; Tony Finau (Round 2, 2022); Scottie Scheffler (Round 2, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record (March):First event at Memorial Park in March.
72 Hole Tournament Record264; Tony Finau (2022).
Fact of the Week:First event at Memorial Park since November of 2022.
Fact of the Week II:The second of three municipal courses used on TOUR (Torrey Pines South & North) this season.

Memorial Park Golf Course

The eyes of Texas and the PGA TOUR are on the municipal Memorial Park Golf Course. Making the first of four stops in the Lone Star state, the Texas Children’s Houston Open will host for the fourth time since 2020.

Joining Torrey Pines Golf Club as the only other municipal tracks used on TOUR, the 2019 Tom Doak redesign plays to Par-70 and has plenty of meat on the bone. Everything is bigger in Texas, and at 7,435 yards tipped out, Memorial Park qualifies.

The yardage from the tips will be different for the third time in four events. The common denominator is all four events played over 7,400 yards.

Sporting five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes, the Par-70 also provides three Par-4 holes 490 yards or more. The trio of Par-5 holes was the most difficult on TOUR for the 2020-21 season and ranked T2 for the 2021-2022 year.

Adding four bunkers and expanding and shifting the tee box 23 yards on Hole No. 17 are the cosmetic changes for 2024.

Water penalty areas are in play on only four holes, a welcome respite from wet and sandy Florida.

The most significant alteration for 2024 is moving the event from November to March. The firm and fast Bermuda gives way to Ryegrass overseed on the fairways and rough. Mowing the rough barely over an inch, down from 2.25 inches in 2022, provides more opportunities to attack hole locations from off the fairway.

The Poa Trivialis greens, checking in as some of the largest on TOUR at 7,000 square feet on average, will be on display for the first time. Missing the big targets will come with closely mown areas that repel mishit shots.

With the rough not as penal and the course playing softer than the fall editions big hitters and ball-strikers should thrive. Ranking in the top 11 in the most difficult tracks in the three previous editions, the average winning score is 13-under-par.

Tony Finau owns the tournament scoring record of 16-under, set in November of 2022. Posting 62 in Round, he joined Scottie Scheffler as the co-course record holder.

Texas Children’s Houston Open

Hosting for the fourth time, TCHO returns to its traditional late March/early April spot on the calendar.

Highlighted by World No. 1, the field of 144 players includes 10 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Finau, who led or shared the lead after 18, 36, and 54 holes is the only previous winner at Memorial Park in the field.

The defending champion ran his total to 19-under before coming home in 38 (+3).

The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

On the line is a purse of $8.4 million, with the winner taking home $1.512 million, collecting 500 FedExCup points, and an invitation to the Masters in three weeks.

This is the last week to qualify for the Masters through the OWGR Top 50.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati

Recent Winners – Texas Children’s Houston Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023No eventNo event in since November 2022.
2022Tony Finau (-16)Went as low as 19-under before closing with 38. Won by four shots.
2021Jason Kokrak (-10)Scottie Scheffler shot 69 on Sunday with the 54-hole lead, but couldn’t close for his first TOUR victory.
2020Carlos Ortiz (-13)Played the week before the Masters in November, Oritz was just one of three players 10-under or better.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
WM Phoenix OpenMatt Fitzpatrick156,200
The Genesis InvitationalMax Homa329,000
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau145,125
Cognizant ClassicRussell Henley32,850
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler4,000,000
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipWill Zalatoris0
Valspar ChampionshipSam Burns0
   
Total Winnings: 5,753,192

Recapping Last Week – Valspar Championship

MY CHOICE: Sam Burns – MC

After missing the cut at the most lucrative event of the season, I decided to dumb it down to get back to business at Palm Harbor.

Entering the 2024 event on solo sixth, win, and win, I believed Sam Burns to be the safest of the safe.

I was the wrongest of the wrong.

The kick in the nuts? Bogey at the last to miss when the lead was only 7-under. Anyone who made the cut last week had a legit chance to catch fire on the weekend.

Nope.

We move on, salty AF.

Other to Consider:

Brian Harman: Odd track record here, but the way he’s played in the last two big boy events, I can’t see the angle to fade him. MC 70-74.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout: Each week appears to be more comfortable. Cashing T24 at Riviera and T13 at TPC Sawgrass is my proof. Three more rounds in the 60s on a tough layout for T9.

Justin Thomas: Coming off a missed cut, he should be raring to go. His talent suggests using him for a bigger purse. He can also get hot and stay hot. My Old Kentucky home is in two months. Birdied the first hole on Saturday to tie the lead and then played the final 17 holes in NINE OVER. Sorry to those of you who were on board. T64.

Longshots

Adam Schenk – T33

Adam Hadwin – T5

Adam PacMan Jones

Adam West

Adam Viniateri

Taylor Montgomery – MC

This Week – Texas Children’s Houston Open

MY CHOICE: Wyndham Clark

Third time the charm? He’s one lip-out away from potentially having two wins on the season. Instead, he’s barely mentioned because of the man who has beaten him. I don’t have to worry about form, and I’m excited to see how he reacts this week. Surely, he can make the cut!!!

Or am I the “new Chadders”?

Stay tuned!

Other to Consider:

Sahith Theegala: I had trouble getting off of him this week and I might change it up before the bell sounds. Top-10 paydays from his last two events, a full bag, and he’s impossible not to like.

Tony Finau: I’ll wait until later in the summer when he finds some more.

Jason Day: Proven record in Texas comes with a perfect 3-3 here. Burned me already this season on a course he loves at Torrey Pines.

Tom Hoge: TCU man has produced a steady stream of results in 2024. Nobody made more feet of putts at TPC Sawgrass. Not many made more doubles or worse. Less water = mo money!

Lone Star Longshots:

Alex Noren: Ran T4 here in 2022 but never lifted a trophy on TOUR.

Aaron Rai: There’s no need, in this format at least, to drift down here, but some of you gotta ketchup.

Mackenzie Hughes: Less trouble off the tee, the better. Big week last week as well.

Cameron Champ/Phillips: Gig ‘em.

Anybody with the last name Coody: Texas lads. Big jeans. Big genes.

THE PLAYERS Championship Preview

Nifty No. 50!

I was there on business in October, things were just a bit different:

THE PLAYERS Championship

THE PLAYERS Stadium Course

TPC Sawgrass

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

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Bet365: Top of the Board  

Entering the week as World No. 1 and FedExCup No. 1, Scottie Scheffler (11/2) has already made history. His next chapter, becoming the first player to defend the title successfully, would not surprise many. Hitting it great, as usual, last week, his putter showed up on Sunday. Leading the field in SG: Putting in Round 4, the Texan blew away the field by five shots at a blustery Bay Hill. Not many win back-to-back weeks against fields of this magnitude. Not many have the game Scheffler has. Investors do not receive any premium to overcome these hurdles.

Rory McIlroy (12/1): As the season rolls on, I’m buying in more and more than the Masters is the ultimate goal. Playing Captial One’s The Match and participating in the Seminole Pro-Member, I’m not surprised he wasn’t dialed in last week at Bay Hill. I am surprised he hasn’t cracked the top 10 in four events in the U.S. this season.

The 2021 winner, Justin Thomas (18/1), will have to break the trend of the last four champions ranking in the OWGR top 10. Cashing T12 or better in eight of his last nine starts worldwide, I don’t have to rely on a massive change in form this week. He’s a proven commodity in Florida and on tough, ball-striking courses. Add him.

Xander Schauffele (22/1) flashed his best on debut in 2018. Sharing second miles behind Simpson, he made his second cut from five tries last year (T19). There’s no questioning the depth of his bag and the big-time results he’s posted in large events. The only winners from California this century are Tiger Woods, Rickie Fowler, and Phil Mickelson.

Like Scheffler, Viktor Hovland (22/1) has not needed many reps to draw attention to his play at this quirky set-up. After missing the cut on his first visit, he rebounded with T3 and T9 in the last two seasons. Admittedly struggling to put all the pieces together in 2024, his best finish of the new season is T19. There are always exceptions to rules, but I find it unrealistic to put it all together or “find it” on a layout like this one.

Patrick Cantlay (22/1) has played three weekends from six visits to Ponte Vedra Beach. Cashing T19 last year, he ended a streak of three consecutive missed cuts in March. Like most in the top 10, his full bag allows him to contend weekly. Like most in the top 10, his record here is less than inspiring.

Max Homa (22/1) is the Californian I will turn my attention to again this week after banging a top-10 winner last week at Bay Hill. After missing at the WM Phoenix Open, he didn’t fire at Riviera (T16) but added to his recent run of solid play at Bay Hill with T8. Riding that momentum up the coast, the Californian will look to build on T6 and T13 the last two seasons at TPC Sawgrass.

Will Zalatoris (25/1) is on a three-event bender, and I’m here for it to continue. Dropping him in here a week early, he led late on Saturday at Bay Hill before dropping to T4 after Sunday. He led the field in Fairways, was second in Scrambling, and posted his third consecutive T13 or better across three difficult courses. All aboard again.

Lighting up the stat board this season, Jordan Spieth (25/1) ranks fourth in SG: Total. The three-time major champion wouldn’t mind being handed the trophy from his buddy from Dallas, but he’ll need to translate his recent form to a course that has not fit his eye on most previous visits. Missing the cut in five of his last seven before T19 last year, the former Longhorn has been “Sawgrassed” too many times for his liking. Relying on creativity and feel, he’ll need to dial in his tee-to-green game this week.

Making his fourth start, Collin Morikawa (28/1) should have the clues to unlocking Dye’s puzzle. A superior approach player, the two-time major winner enters the week missing two of his last four cuts. Slick Poa Trivialis greens will determine even more concentration with his flat stick. Posting just two rounds in the 60s from his previous 10 loops, he will need to double that total this week to contend and win.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Hideki Matsuyama (30/1): When he gets going, he can get going. The winner at The Riviera Country Club was lingering in the top 5 last week at Bay Hill before fading to T12. With top 10 visits in two of his last three to TPC Sawgrass, he’s lined up and ready to go. So am I.

Wyndham Clark (35/1): I’ve ignored him too long. His last 10 months have been fantastic. The winner at Pebble Beach ran second last week at Bay Hill, extending his run of big finishes in big events.

Jason Day (45/1): Ending a run of top-10 paydays at Bay Hill with T36, he should have knocked off the rust after missing two weeks. Adding another top 10 to his ledger this season and at THE PLAYERS would not surprise me.

Tom Hoge (66/1): When course history intersects with current form, I’m in. The course record holder rolls into town with T28 or better in six of his last seven, including two top-10 paydays. Never missing the cut in five tries, it’s clear this layout fits his eye.

Adam Hadwin (90/1): I can’t overlook T4 at Riviera plus, he’s hit the top 10 two more times in his last eight starts. Cheekily, he’s run off T13-T9-T29 in the last seasons. Quiet, please.

Chris Kirk (100/1): The Bermuda ball-striking test for The Sentry winner should fit nicely. Absolutely no pressure.

Erik van Rooyen (110/1): Cashing T25 or better from six of eight starts, the South African has won and collected T2 in his last nine on TOUR. Time to take the next step.

Doug Ghim (110/1): T16 or better in his last four starts on TOUR, he has blown incredibly hot and cold at TPC Sawgrass. I hope 80-74 MC from last year scares a few off.

Taylor Pendrith (200/1): Each year, a player from left field runs to the top of the leaderboard. I’ll take my chances on the Canadian who secured T13 on debut in 2022 and T69 last year. Top 40.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseTHE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass
Yards (per official scorecard):7,275
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Poa Trivialis; 5,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:13 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye at three and a half inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play95/18/18
Architect(s):Pete Dye (1980); Steve Wenzloff (2016).
Defending Champion (event):Scottie Scheffler (-17).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:62; Tom Hoge (Round 3, 2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record (March):271; Scottie Scheffler (2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record264; Greg Norman (1994). Made one bogey.
Fact of the Week:No champion has successfully defended.
Fact of the Week II:Only two players have won on debut. Hal Sutton (1983 – second event at the course) and Craig Perks (2002).

THE PLAYERS Stadium Course

Following the fourth Signature Event of the season, THE PLAYERS Championship celebrates its 50th edition this week at the THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass.

The third stop of four on the Florida Swing brings Pete Dye’s genius to the forefront for the 42nd consecutive edition. Stretching to 7,275 yards, the Par-72 matches the scorecard from the 2023 tournament.

Testing the full range of clubs, shots, and mental toughness, the course, while not ranking as overly difficult is far from overly easy. Since returning to March for the 2019 edition the average winning score is 15-under-par, but only 15 players have posted 10-under or better in the last three editions.

Providing multiple dog legs, tree canopies, waste bunkers, and water penalty areas, there’s no way to fake it tee to green. Narrow fairways and cramped putting surfaces require concentration on every shot. The last four winners have ranked in the top six in SG: Approach.

Water is plentiful and in play on almost every field shot. Over 90 bunkers, including waste sand areas, plus three and a half inches of overseeded ryegrass force the pros to pick their poison. Getting it close requires a sturdy decision-making process when faced with the mounds, swales, and closely mown areas around the greens.

Hole locations on humps, bumps, or lying in bowls will test short-game acumen and the flat stick. Running at 13 feet on the Stimpmeter, the overseeded Poa Trivialis will provide a slick putting surface.

Pushing shot shapes to the edge will result in fantastic opportunities to score, or the most direct path to pitching out. Or finding the drop zone. Bailout areas don’t exist for power players this week.

Taking advantage of the short Par-4 holes and the three short Par-5 holes (out of four) will help the scoring and the mood of the world’s best players.

THE PLAYERS Championship

The event was established in 1974 and moved to TPC Sawgrass and the Pete Dye Stadium Course in 1982.

The field of 144 players includes 47 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. No amateurs or club pros are eligible.

Only four qualified players are not entered this week (Tiger Woods, Will Gordon, David Lingmerth, and Danny Willett). 

Scottie Scheffler won on his third attempt last year. Only 2017 champion Si Woo Kim, the youngest winner in history, needed fewer attempts. Craig Perks, the 2002 champion, was only the second winner on debut after Hal Sutton in 1983, the second year of the event at TPC Sawgrass.

After 2006, the event was moved from March to May. Following the 2018 edition, won easily by Webb Simpson, the event returned to its March roots. The 2020 edition was abandoned after Round 1 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and was declared null and void.

The four March winners have all ranked inside the top 10 of the OWGR at the time of victory.

Over the previous 41 editions at TPC Sawgrass, only five players have won the event twice. None are playing this week.

Fred Funk, 48 in the 2005 edition, became the oldest winner.

Led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, nine previous champions are in the field. Justin Thomas (2021), Rory McIlroy (2019), Webb Simpson (2018), Si Woo Kim (2017), Jason Day (2016), Rickie Fowler (2015), Matt Kuchar (2012), and Adam Scott (2004).

All four March winners were 29 or younger at the time of victory.

Scottie Scheffler posted 17-under last year, the lowest winning total since returning to March.

Tom Hoge set the course record in Round 3 last year. Posting 62, the North Dakotan highlighted the easiest scoring round (any round) in the history of the event (69.573).

The field of 144 includes players representing 22 countries and 23 debutants. The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

On the line is a purse of $25 million, with the winner taking home $4.5 million. THE PLAYERS Championship is the first of five events this season that will award 750 FedExCup points to the winner.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler

Recent Winners – THE PLAYERS Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Scottie Scheffler (-17)Blasted the field by five, the largest winning margin since 2006 (Stephen Ames – 6 shots).
2022Cam Smith (-13)Closing with 66, the Australian finished Round 3 and won the event on Monday.
2021Justin Thomas (-14)Fired 64-68 to set the closing 36-hole record.
2020Cancelled 
2019Rory McIlroy (-16)Held off Jim Furyk by a shot in the return to March.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
WM Phoenix OpenMatt Fitzpatrick156,200
The Genesis InvitationalMax Homa329,000
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau145,125
Cognizant ClassicRussell Henley32,850
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler4,000,000
   
Total Winnings: 5,753,192

His game has more fun stuff to it. Reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Sometimes, shit just happens like we all expect it to happen. Except for the people who didn’t pick the winner.

Celebrate ALL VICTORIES, kids. Life is hard. Fantasy golf is harder.

Other than THE WINNER, which is obviously the most important in THIS game, I hardly put a foot right. Disastrous performance, except for having the THE WINNER.

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler – WON

I wouldn’t be too disappointed if you were not on board last week. There is this week, four majors, and four more Signature Events. Lotta time there.

Other to Consider:

Rory McIlroy: I posted the stat on Twitter yesterday where he has had the most top-10 paydays since 2016. He’s six from nine here. His form puts me off. Another week, another finish outside the top 20. Bizarre. T21.

Viktor Hovland: Another who is not firing on all cylinders, the Norwegian led after 36 holes in 2022 and played in the final group last year. And another who didn’t fire. T36 after 75-75 weekend.

Ludvig Aberg: Phased by absolutely nothing. T24 on debut last year as an amateur. T25 this season.

Tommy Fleetwood: The tougher, the better, and his three top-10 paydays provide the evidence. Annnnnnnnnnd a MC. I’m the Fleetwood barometer. If I think he’s the right play, go the other way! Sad!

Jason Day: Enters on back-to-back top-10s and has won here. T36.

Sam Burns: Tough to ignore four straight in the top 10 on TOUR. Smooth 68 to open. And 78 to close. T30.

Longshots

Chris Kirk – T44

Corey Conners – T18

Justin Rose – MC

This Week – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Will Zalatoris

His game is in excellent shape (T4, T2, and T13 last three) and he’s never missed in three March events. Pounding Fairways and GIR is his strength and that’s the foundation this week. I’ll worry about the putter like I did with Scheffler when I need to worry about the putter.

Other to Consider:

Hideki Matsuyama – Healthy, confident, and playing well. The Genesis Invitational winner and Masters champion won’t be bothered with all the happenings going on. It was him or Zalatoris.

Jusitn Thomas – I’m saving him for my Old Kentucky Home in May. You gotta do you. Hell, he’s good enough to win both.

Brian Harman – Tough laydown, but I’ll find other uses for him.

Scottie Scheffler – I included him for those of you considering using him. Winning the week before this event has happened like three times and Tiger Woods and Ray Floyd are the two of the names. I’m glad I’m not butting heads with the history the Texan faces this week. Can he? Of course. If he does, it’s an all-time result.

Longshots

Tom Hoge

Sahith Theegala

Harris English

Garrick Higgo

Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

Vidanta Vallarta (@PGATOUR on x)

Read more: Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

Mexico Open at Vidanta

Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta

Vallarta, Mexico

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Quick Links:

Odds OutlookDFS ReportHorses for Courses/Stats SuggestExpert Picks

Top of the Board (odds via Bet365)

Tony Finau (8/1) crushed a better field than this one last year. Posting 24-under to set the tournament scoring record, the highest-ranked player in the field is now 40-under aggregate in two visits. Only Jon Rahm (not entered) has beaten him here.

Nicolai Hojgaard (16/1) is one of many at the top of the board this week who ran well at Torrey Pines last month. Finishing second to Mathieu Pavon (not entered), the young Dane showed he wasn’t bothered by a big track hugging the Pacific Ocean. Cashed T33 here last year but was second to Matt Wallace (80/1) on Paspalum at Punta Cana last spring.

Speaking of Torrey Pines, Stephan Jaeger (22/1) led after 36 and 54 holes before cashing T3. Signing for 73-72 on the weekend, the German is still looking for his first win or second-place finish on TOUR. Making his third start at Vidanta Vallarta, he will look to add to his T18-T15 paydays.

Emiliano Grillo (25/1) has cashed in his first six events of 2024. Highlighted by T7 at Waialae, the Argentine has picked up five top-10 paydays worldwide since winning at Colonial last May. Oh, and he was T20 at Torrey Pines.

Flashing with T9 at The American Express and T17 at TPC Scottsdale, not many drive it better than Keith Mitchell (25/1) regardless of the field. Playing Mayakoba five times, he never finished better than T56. Careful.

Taylor Pendrith (25/1) played five events in the FedExCup Fall and registered three T15 or better paydays, including T3 and T8. In two starts in 2024, he’s cashed T9 (Torrey Pines!!) and T10 with MC sandwiched between. Big power off the tee is the foundation.

After missing the cut in his first try of 2024, Thomas Detry (25/1) rattled off T20 (Torrey Pines!!), T4, and T28 before not qualifying for last week. The Belgian cashed T8 and T15 in back-to-back years at Punta Cana and hit the top 25 in his final two visits to Mayakoba.

Winning four weeks ago in the UAE in his last outing, Thorbjorn Olesen (30/1) continues his run of fantastic play. Cashing 26th or better in his last eight starts, his annual hot starts to the beginning of the calendar year continue.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

The last time the TOUR stopped in Mexico and played on Paspalum, Erik van Rooyen (33/1) posted three rounds of 64-66-63 to close at El Cardonal and win by two shots. Missing the cut in Phoenix was his first weekend off in 12 starts.

Doug Ghim (45/1) rolls in after cashing T13 (Torrey Pines!!) and T12 in Phoenix. Keep an eye on this ball-striker.

Maverick McNealy (50/1) popped with a season-best T6 at WM Phoenix open after a disappointing T39 in his boyhood backyard at Pebble Beach.

Cameron Champ (55/1) joins Finau, Brandon Wu (40/1), and Patrick Rodgers (33/1) as the only players to hit the top 10 in the first two editions.

Andrew Novak (110/1) grinds his way through big, windy, courses and isn’t bothered by Paspalum.

A winner at Mayakoba, Patton Kizzire (125/1) joins Finau and Charley Hoffman (70/1) as the only players this week to win on a Norman design in Mexico.

With wins at the Puerto Rico Open, Mazatlán Open, and El Bosque Mexico Championship, Martin Trainer (200/1) deserves a punt. Cashing T11 on debut here in 2022, he returns after T15 in Los Cabos last fall. Paspalum specialist and long shot.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseGreg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta
Yards (per official scorecard):7,456.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Platinum Paspalum; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Platinum Paspalum at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play106/14/12
Architect(s):Greg Norman (2015).
Defending Champion (event):Tony Finau (-24).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:N/A
Course Record:61; Jon Rahm (Round 3, 2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record260; Tony Finau (2023).
Fact of the Week:First-year for the event to be held in February.
Fact of the Week II:Paspalum for the first time since El Cardonal last fall.

The 64th edition of the Mexico Open tees off at Greg Norman’s Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta.

The Australian’s coastal design, located just off the Pacific Ocean, opened in 2015.  Playing 7,456 yards to Par 71, the track features tee-to-green Platinum Paspalum.

Previously contested in the last week of April and the first week of May, the 2024 edition takes up a new position on the calendar in late February.

To mitigate scoring, the rough has increased to 2.5 inches, up from 1.5 inches from the first two editions.

The resort course provides massive landing areas off the fairway to account for everyday players and the ocean breezes off the Pacific Ocean.

The Paspalum putting surfaces, 7,000 square feet on average, will be prepped to run at just 11 feet, down from 12 feet last year.

Errant tee balls and approaches will have to steer clear of over 100 bunkers and water hazards found on 12 of the 18 holes.

One of the biggest ballparks on TOUR, Vidanta Vallarta will have five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes.

Notes:

  • Field of 132.
  • The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • The OWGR is represented by four of the top 50.
  • $8.1 million – $1.458 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama

Recent Winners – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Tony Finau (-24)Rolled to a three-shot victory over Rahm; Wu was third two back.
2022Jon Rahm (-17)Held off Tony Finau and Brandon Wu by one shot.

Angles

The eighth event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season will be the first of two in Mexico this year. El Cardonal in Los Cabos will return in the fall to host for the second time.

The combination of a Greg Norman track and Mexico was in play at Mayakoba on the Yucatan Peninsula from 2007 through 2022.

Paspalum is a common playing surface in the resorts of the Caribbean and Mexico. PGA TOUR events played recently on Paspalum include El Cardonal, Puerto Rico Open, Corales Punta Cana, and Mayakoba. Korn Ferry Tour players have experienced this surface in two events in the Bahamas.

A field of 132, down from previous years due to the early season start and reduced February daylight, will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

Defending champion Tony Finau highlights a field of just four players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. At No. 24, he is the highest-ranked player teeing it up this week.

Set during his victory last year, Tony Finau owns the course record on 24-under. The course record of 61, set by Jon Rahm (not entered), was posted in Round 3 of 2023. The cut in the first two editions was 2-under par.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
WM Phoenix OpenMatt Fitzpatrick156,200
The Genesis InvitationalMax Homa329,000
   
Total Winnings: 1,575,217

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – The Genesis Invitational

West Coast players have feasted here over the years. Only Joaquin Niemann, who is ineligible this week, sticks out like a sore thumb from the list of recent winners. All he did was set the 36-hole and 54-hole scoring record in perfect conditions.

The third of eight Signature Events requires a show of nerves. Either you’re picking an ultra-premium player or you’re hoping to continue to stretch of winners outside 60-1.

With only 40-odd events to choose from, there is absolutely no need to go fishing this week. Save that for next week in Mexico when the field will lighten significantly.

MY CHOICE: Max Homa – T16

It’s his major championship. It’s in his backyard. He’s won it and finished second in the last three editions. The streak of top-10 paydays is four.

The Cooler strikes again! Battling from the word go, the Californian put it together in Round 2 with 65 but couldn’t catch up. A bogey at the last cost 116k but who’s counting?

At least I put Matsuyama in the DFS column!

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: I will not talk you out of him this week. This is not a putting contest and that will help him between the ears from the word go. Damn, 51 guys made the cut. Scheffler was 51st SG: Putting. Cashed T10.

Collin Morikawa: I’d probably run him out before Scheffler. I like the grass match. Barely hit 50% of GIR. Weird. T19.

Adam Scott: I don’t think I need to dip to 50-1 this week. Might pop in a field with less lumber down the road. T19 on a sponsor’s exemption.

Rory McIlroy: I’m good. See him in Florida or when the weather gets warmer. T24 after opening with 74. Good swerve.

Justin Thomas: T12 or better in every event over the last four months. I’m still holding out for Valhalla. Condolences to those who didn’t. MC.

Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele: If you’re not sold on Cantlay’s form, save him for Memorial. Schauffele is an auto play at any major, especially a U.S. Open. If your game uses The TOUR Championship, that works as well. T4 BOTH! Cantlay was the more disappointing of the two. Sunday scaries continued but it was reported he was sick most of the weekend. Ok.

Tiger Woods: Come on. Just no. He’s +320 to hit the top 20. Go there. Win there. Maybe. Played 24 holes and WD due to illness.

Longshots

Sahith Theegala – T37

Cameron Young – T16

Will Zalatoris – T2

Adam Schenk – MC

Emiliano Grillo – T44

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

The fields in this event during the first two editions have been less than comprehensive.

The argument that the two best players finished first-T2 or T2-first the last two years is difficult to argue.

The winners on TOUR this year suggest that favorite Tony Finau will struggle to defend his title and some 50/1 or worse longshot will steal the trophy on Sunday.

Whatever.

MY CHOICE: Tony Finau

With light wind in the forecast, it’s all systems go. Relax, smoke drivers, wedge it close, and continue to avoid bogeys just off the Pacific Ocean.

Those of you who do not believe a shootout is the best place to run him out, save the champion at Memorial Park in Houston for later in March. Defending his second title of the year, the tee to green requirements in Texas will play more to his set-up, but I would suggest a deeper field.

MUCH deeper.

Nobody said this was easy.

Other to Consider:

Thorbjorn Olesen: Won in the Middle East in his last outing. Former Ryder Cupper plays all four corners of the world, and his game follows.

Cameron Champ: Yep, that’s where we’re at this week. Hitting the top 10 twice in the first two years matches nicely.

Emiliano Grillo: Broke his drought at Colonial last spring. Safest pick on the board.

Thomas Detry: Too many top 25 paydays in thin fields and on Paspalum to ignore.

Longshots

Brandon Wu: Testing the limits of Horses for Courses!

Patrick Rodgers: Same!

Mackenzie Hughes: Flashed for two rounds last week before fading on the weekend.

Charley Hoffman: Previous winner at Mayakoba, should feel right at home.

WM Phoenix Open Preview

Read more: WM Phoenix Open Preview

WM Phoenix Open

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale

Scottsdale, Arizona

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Odds OutlookDFS ReportHorses for Courses/Stas SuggestExpert PicksBet365.com Preview

For my picks this week, click on the Bet365.com Preview above.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseThe Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale
Yards (per official scorecard):7,261.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye and Poa annua around two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play67/3/6
Architect(s):Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (1986); Tom Weiskopf (2014 renovation).
Defending Champion (event):Scottie Scheffler (-19)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Scheffler (2023, 2022), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016) and JB Holmes (2006, 2004).
Course Record:61; Jordan Spieth (Round 3, 2021); Wyndham Clark (Round 1, 2020).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post-2014 renovation)19-under; Scottie Scheffler (2023).
Fact of the Week:Steve Stricker was the last player to win an event three consecutive years (John Deere Classic 2009-2011).
Fact of the Week II:Only three internationals have won since 2000.

Notes:

  • Field of 132.
  • THE CUT returns this week. The top 65 and ties advance to the final two rounds.
  • The OWGR is represented by 27 of the top 50.
  • $8.8 million – $1.584 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open 

Recent Winners – WM Phoenix Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Scottie Scheffler (-19)Tied the tournament scoring record defending his title. Won by two shots over Nick Taylor. Third place was five back.
2022Scottie Scheffler (-16)Defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021Brooks Koepka (-19)Set the tournament scoring mark holding off KH Lee and Xander Schauffele by a shot.
2020Webb Simpson (-17)Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2019Rickie Fowler (-19)Sat 20-under after 54 holes before eventually winning by two shots in cool, rainy, conditions.
2018Gary Woodland (-18)Defeated Chez Reavie in a playoff; Circled 26 birdies.
2017Hideki Matsuyama    (-17)Successfully defended his title knocking out Simpson in a playoff.
2016Hideki Matsuyama     (-14)Won in his third attempt defeating Fowler in a playoff.
2105Brooks Koepka (-15)Won on his debut and won for the first time on TOUR.

Angles

The People’s Open is the largest attended sporting event outside The Olympics.

Over 700,000 people will pack into TPC Scottsdale during the practice rounds and tournament play.

Players distracted by noise, crowds, or nightlife probably didn’t enter this week.

It’s the fourth consecutive week on Poa annua greens but the first in four weeks where only one course will be in play.

Desert golf usually means sunshine, light winds, and warm temperatures. Not this week. Take a look. Cold mornings and the lack of sunshine will make this a miserable slog. Thankfully, TPC Scottsdale drains nicely.

A wet golf course on Thursday will expand the fairways. Less roll equals more width and tighter angles can possibly be attacked. Will it matter if you can’t feel your hands???

The Par-71 has played 7,261 yards since the 2019 edition. Taking advantage of scoring conditions (read: not firm and fast greens) should resemble a dart board. The average winning score here in perfect conditions is around 17-under. Time to score again this week.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

EventSelectionEarnings
The SentryCollin Morikawa690,500
Sony Open in HawaiiCorey Conners18,592
The American ExpressAdam Hadwin310,800
Farmers Insurance OpenJason Day0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJordan Spieth70,125
   
Total Winnings: 1,090,017

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The second of eight Signature Events, there is NO CUT this week. Toss in wind, rain, and amateurs, and it might be a week to stray from the biggest of names.

Or not.

My theory in this game is simple: You’re not missing out. If you don’t take Scheffler this week and he wins, it’s not one and done. He will play all of the majors, THE PLAYERS, most of the other six Signature Events and the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs. He’s good enough to win again and possibly after that.

MY CHOICE: Jordan Spieth – T39

He embraces the format, can handle the weather, and has the results to back it up. If you’re saving him for the Masters, please re-read the above. I’m trying to catch him on the up on ANOTHER course he has figured out. I didn’t think he would fire at Kapalua, and I was wrong by miles (solo third). After back-to-back top six paydays, I’m going in.

Never in it from the jump, the Texan sat a mile off the lead when the tournament was, rightly, called after 54 holes. I took a chance. I didn’t hit.

Other to Consider:

Viktor Hovland: The 2018 U.S. Amateur winner here has plenty of reps at Pebble. He lives in Oklahoma where wind is just part of life. The only upside of choosing Spieth instead is saving Hovland for later. Cashing T58 and withdrawing from WM Phoenix Open this week wasn’t what I had in mind.

Rory McIlroy: To me, he makes absolutely no sense this week. Not with the events left on the schedule. Not with the tracks he’s crushed still to come. I’ll point out he’s on fire. Got it. Desert golf, with no wind and warm temperatures, is exactly the opposite of what he will face this week. Posted one round in the 60s for T66 out of 80 players.

Ludvig Aberg: There’s nothing left to be written about the Swedish star in the making. The next step for gamers is figuring out his sweet spot. If you’re on the fence this week about the weather/event/choice there are a ton of worse places to default to than this guy. Solo second.

Tommy Fleetwood: Can we get somebody to whisper in his ear that is U.S. Open week? Good job if you resisted! T31.

Jason Day: Because I had him last week.  Closed with 63 for T6. Yep, THIS WEEK.

Longshots

Ben An – T31

Denny McCarthy – T26

Nick Taylor – T71

Seamus Power – T31

This Week – WM Phoenix Open

History suggests the BIG PARTY in the desert brings us a big champion (see the table above). Only Webb Simpson (not entered) has won this event BEFORE winning a major championship, but the point stands. TPC Scottsdale identifies big-time talent. The only champion on the list above who has not won a major, to the surprise of many, is Rickie Fowler.

The way 2024 has begun it is OBVIOUS the winner this week will be a Monday Qualifier or the last man into the field after a WD. All five winners have been just short of or above 100-1 to win this season. Wyndham Clark’s victory last week just added to that total as he was as long as 125-1 in places and 66-1 in others.

Whatever

MY CHOICE: Matt Fitzpatrick

It will be cold, and damp, and players will be either into this weather or mentally checked out. The Englishman should feel right at home.

Strong off the tee, this major winner isn’t going to lose any shots on or around the greens either. Making his third consecutive start (T29-T10), it’s obvious he’s not bothered by the raucous environment.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: If I am going to use him once and only once, thems the rules, I’m going down in an event with BIG BUCKS on the table.

Justin Thomas: Current heat mixes nicely with course form. At this point, I can’t talk myself out of him at Valhalla. You do you.

Hideki Matsuyama: Legit course horse.

Max Homa: No, thanks. Next week.

Wyndham Clark: Following up a round of 60 in victory seems a bit of a stretch.

Byeong Hun An: The putter isn’t the answer, but he won’t miss many Fairways and GIR.

Longshots

Keith Mitchell

Corey Conners

Vincent Norrman

Victor Perez

Welcome Back! The Sentry 2024

Read more: Welcome Back! The Sentry 2024

The Sentry

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Opening Grid – click here

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

I write all of the stuff above. I’m not going to necessarily repeat everything in this column. Life is a do-it-yourself job so click and read.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll try to add it here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you any hard-earned money for reading.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

I know there are only a few of you so thanks for reading.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (+500): The last three winners here have led the field in SG: Putting. Nobody hits it better but can he it THAT WELL against a field of this class and get away with a cold-putting week? No, says I. Enjoy the free money on the top 10 bets, though.

Viktor Hovland (+800): Maybe the fourth time will be the charm? Form has never been a concern. The last two years he’s arrived after winning the Hero World Challenge in December against an elite field. His best finish is T18. What’s the hang-up? Chipping and putting on Bermuda. Well, he’s appeared to have fixed those issues. I’ll let you wade in at 8-1 to see him put it all together this week.

Collin Morikawa (+1100): Odds have already dropped from 12s to 11s since Monday morning. Not hard to figure out why. He was 35-under in his previous four rounds from 2022 thru Round 3 of 2023. His final round 72 last year saw his six-shot lead evaporate. Fading to T2 he picked up his fourth consecutive T7 or better from four starts.  Family on the island. A winner at ZOZO in October. Two-time major champion. Only concern, as usual, could be the flat stick. I’ll start writing win tickets and his name is first on the list.

Ludvig Aberg (+1400): Looking to go back-to-back on TOUR in his 15th start anywhere as a pro. Wow. Fantastic player will be attacking history from that angle plus the Chopra Angle (keep reading). Too much for me to swallow at that price. Terribly curious to see how he follows up closing 64-61-61 from his win at The RSM though.

Xander Schauffele (+1400): One of the three former champs in the field, his last two years here have been disappointing. After his win, followed by P2 and T5, he cashed 12th and was a WD (back/neck) last year after opening with 70. Recent winners at Kapalua have produced results in the fall and ridden that momentum to Maui. He’s played once since the Ryde Cup, T38 at ZOZO, and did not hit the Hero. Hasn’t won since July 2022.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400): In the even years, he plays great, solo fourth in 2020 and 2022. In the odd years, he hasn’t cracked the top 12. Is it the Ryder Cup? He hasn’t played since Rome, nor did he play in the weeks leading up after The TOUR Championship. He did get married! Hooking on to a guy who hasn’t played his own ball since early September isn’t for the faint of heart.

Max Homa (+1400): This Californian checks the boxes for me as my No. 2 this week. After winning in South Africa in November, he knocked the rust off in The Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge. I can’t point to a recent full-field event where he wasn’t in the top 25. He finished T3 here last year and will be making his fourth start. Super on the greens as well, I’d expect a big week from him again.

Jordan Spieth (+1800): Nobody loves Horses for Courses more than I do and the Texan qualifies. The 2016 champ hit the podium in his first three, and the top 10 in his first four, but has been quiet since. Tied with Schauffele and Matsuyama more the most starts in the field (7 this week), he knows his way around. With the expanded family, a new baby arrived in September, and a jumpy putter, this number feels like a stretch. He’ll hope for tougher, breezy conditions to allow his creativity and short game to flourish.

Tom Kim (+2200): Debuting last year, he racked up T5 and wondered what all the fuss was about. The birdie machine would be higher on my list if the conditions were benign. I haven’t seen enough of him in the breeze to run him to the front, especially in a field of this strength. Form won’t be a concern as a busy fall worldwide included defending his title in the weather-less Las Vegas desert.  

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseThe Plantation Course at Kapalua
Yards (per official scorecard):7,596
Par:73 (36-37)
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 8,722 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11 feet.
Rough:Celebration Bermuda at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play93/0/0.
Architect(s):Coore and Crenshaw (1999).
Defending Champion (event):Jon Rahm (-27; not entered; no longer holds TOUR status).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record (last):61; set three times in 2022 (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Matt Jones, none entered this week).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):258 (-34); Cam Smith 2022 (no longer a member on TOUR).
Fact of the Week:72 holes, no cut.
Fact of the Week II:There are 18 players making their debut this week. The only player to win on the first attempt at Kapalua was Daniel Chopra in 2008.

Notes:

  • Field of 59.
  • Winners in the calendar year 2023 or qualifiers for the BMW Championship are eligible.
  • The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 25.
  • First of eight SIGNATURE EVENTS of 2024.
  • $20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Italics – not entered

EventWinner
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas
The RSM ClassicLudvig Aberg

Recent Winners – The Sentry

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2023Jon Rahm (-25)Won by two, no longer a member on TOUR.
2022Cam Smith (-34)Set the tournament scoring record, no longer a member on TOUR.
2021Harris English (-25)Won in a playoff on his second visit.
2020Justin Thomas (-14)Won a three-man playoff over Schauffele and Reed in breezy conditions.
2019Xander Schauffele     (-23)Closed with 62, tying the course record, to win on his second try.
2018Dustin Johnson (-24)Tied the Plantation course margin of victory, winning by eight shots.

Angles

The Plantation Course tips at 7,596 yards, the third longest course used in 2023, and plays to Par-73.

The Plantation Course has ranked as the easiest course on TOUR the last three seasons, playing more than three shots under par per round annually. Weather is the only deterrent to scoring.

The resort course features generous fairways and the largest greens complexes on TOUR.

Elevation changes and uneven lies will challenge players on second shots.

TifEagle Bermuda greens running at 11 feet will allow players to be aggressive on the short grass.

The last eight winners have produced seven champions who finished first or second in SG: Putting.

The last eight winners have ranked in the top eight in SG: Off the tee.

The last 10 winners of this event have been household names. The best players have no problem going low.

Stretching

Players for the top 10 and top 20 action

Australian Cam Davis (66/1) will try to continue the proud Australian tradition at this event. The last wire-to-wire winner and champion to defend was Geoff Ogilvy (2009-2010). Stuart Appleby rattled off three straight wins from 2004-2006. Cameron Smith set the tournament scoring record in 2022. Making his second start, he quietly picked off a T10 on debut in 2022 with four rounds in the 60s for 23-under.

The top 10 finishers of 2023 included debutants Tom Hoge (150/1) at T3, Tom Kim (22/1) at T5, and Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1) at T7. This year, 18 players are making their maiden voyages at the Plantation Course. While Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark will get most of the looks, Floridian Eric Cole (66/1) makes for a lovely outsider. The 34-year-old rookie ran T3 to Aberg at The RSM Classic to wrap up a fruitful debut season on TOUR. He’s the best putter in the field, loves Bermudagrass, and won’t be bothered by the big names or big ballpark.

Akshay Bhatia (110/1) thrives in coastal settings and when conditions get breezy.

Mackenzie Hughes (150/1) quietly closed 2023 with a runner-up finish to Aberg at The RSM Classic two weeks after cashing T7 at El Cardonal in Mexico. The Canadian opened with 66 and closed with 65 here last year for T21, his best result from three visits.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread out throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs.

My theory for this game is quite simple: Use the biggest and best for the events with the biggest and best prize pools. Also, if your second guy wins this week, what’s to say he won’t win again in 2024??? Relax, it’s week 1.

This is a bonus week as there is NO CUT. You will cash. Or crash and burn.

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa

Others to consider/fade

Max Homa – Too many events in SoCal for me to use this week. He will defend at Torrey Pines and Riviera is his personal open. I won’t talk YOU out of him, though.

Xander Schauffele – This should interest the course historians at Kapalua but the rust bothers ME. You gotta do you. I’ll save him for the U.S. Open or East Lake (if your game uses that event).

Patrick Cantlay – Another quirk of mine is playing guys where they have won before. Memorial is his jam.

Jordan Spieth – New folks, it’s either Augusta or Colonial for me. Maybe Pebble.

Remember, not playing a guy you will still have 14 more chances to use them in BIG EVENTS this season. Of the top 25 OWGR, 21 are in this week. It should be difficult. It will be difficult all season.

Longshots

Sungjae Im – The best of three starts was his debut and he has gone in the wrong direction since. That direction included another top 10 plus solo 12th. Coming off his first season in five without a podium finish doesn’t inspire but he knows his way around tee to green.

Sahith Theegala – Free roll. Winner at Fortinet in September. ELITE putter who finished 33rd of 38 last year on these greens. He won’t do that again, promise!

LAST CALL – RSM CLASSIC

Time to fire back that final shot, pay your tab, and GET INTO THE TOP 125 or THE NEXT 10!

Read more: LAST CALL – RSM CLASSIC

RSM Classic

Sea Island Golf Club

Seaside (host) course

St. Simons Island, Georgia

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Betting Stat Pack – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Odds Outlook – click here

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top 10 players

Ludvig Aberg (11/1): Listing him as the favorite in a field with 11 of the top 50 in the OWGR tells you what the book thinks! This is an event where first-time winners have flourished over the last 13 years.

Russell Henley (14/1): I’m never crazy about backing a guy who hasn’t played in almost three months in a shootout. One quiet round this week to knock the rust off might be too much to overcome. With the wind in play in Round 1, he might find the perfect storm.

Brian Harman (20/1): No current resident has ever won.

Cameron Young (22/1): With the way he hits it, he would prefer windy conditions all four days.

Corey Conners (25/1): Looking to become the third Canadian winner, he’s never cashed better than T10 in four trips.

Eric Cole (25/1): It’s time. Hop on. Bermuda expert.

J.T. Poston (28/1): Already a winner twice in shootouts, his red-hot form is hard to ignore.

Si Woo Kim (33/1): Hasn’t posted a top 10 since June and has MC in his last three visits here. Hits it great tee-to-green so I better throw a top 10 ticket on here just in case!

Denny McCarthy (33/1): Almost three months to the day since his last competitive round. Not many roll it better on the greens.

Adam Svensson (35/1): Reigning champion defends for the first time. Yeah, I’m out.

Alex Noren (35/1): White hot form. Once I back him, you shouldn’t.  I’ll give you an early Xmas present by fading him.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseSeaside
Yards (per official scorecard):7,006.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 7,200 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:12.5.
Rough:Ryegrass overseed at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play47/14/13
Architect(s):Colt & Alison (1929); Tom Fazio (1999).
Defending Champion (event):Adam Svensson (-19).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Robert Streb (2014, 2020).
Course Record (last):60; Set twice in 2021 (both not entered); Tommy Gainey 2012, Round 4.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):260 (-22); Talor Gooch (2022); Kevin Kisner (2015).
Fact of the Week:Oldest TifEagle Greens on TOUR.
Fact of the Week II:19-under or better is the winning score over the last SIX editions.

Notes:

  • Field of 156.
  • The OWGR is represented by 11 of the top 50.
  • FINAL EVENT of the FedExCup Fall.
  • $8.4 million – $1.512 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Fortinet ChampionshipMax Homa
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipMackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPKeegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREERory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipSeamus Power
Mayakoba ChampionshipRussell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston OpenTony Finau
The RSM ClassicAdam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen
Butterfield BermudaCamilo Villegas

Recent Winners – RSM Classic

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2022Adam Svensson (-19)Wins by two for first victory on TOUR.
2021Talor Gooch (-22)Matched tournament scoring record; wins by three for first victory on TOUR.
2020Robert Streb (-19)Defeated Kisner in a playoff to become the only two-time champion.
2019Tyler Duncan (-19)Defeated Webb Simpson in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2018Charles Howell III      (-19)Defeated Patrick Rodgers in a playoff for his first win since 2007.

Angles

The Seaside course, covering 7,005 yards and Par-70, will be used in three of the four rounds.

The Plantation course, stretching to just 7,060 yards and playing to Par-72, will be used once before the 36-hole cut.

Both courses are tee-to-green Bermuda grass and TifEagle Bermuda greens.

Svensson is the only winner to sign for a round over 70 on the scorecard. He opened with 73 last year.

Winners here annually rank in the top 10 GIR, SG: Putting, and Scrambling.

Kevin Kisner is the only player in the field this week to post 22-under as a winning total, equaling the tournament scoring record.

The last six winning totals have been 19-under or better. Go low!

The field of 156 contains 11 of the top 50 OWGR.

Stretching

Justin Suh (40/1) will enjoy the generous landing areas and inviting Seaside greens as targets. A super putter, he rolls into town after T10 and a career-best solo fourth in Mexico in his last two starts.

Sea Island resident Davis Thompson (55/1) has been watching this event for as long as his father, Todd, has been running it. Making his fifth appearance, he should be ready to contend on the weekend.

Chesson Hadley (55/1) has cashed T7 in his last two starts on TOUR on resort courses in Las Vegas and Mexico. No point overthinking it.

Sleepers

Will Gordon (100/1), T15 and T21 in his last two on TOUR, is top 10 GIR, and that plays this week. … 2017 winner Austin Cook (150/1) has cashed T10 and T13 in his last two starts on TOUR. … If Kevin Kisner (175/1) is going to figure it out, it’s going to be this week.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Aruba, Jamaica, ooooo I wanna take ya

Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama

Read more: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Port Royal Golf Course

Southampton, Bermuda

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Betting Stat Pack – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Odds Outlook – click here

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top 10 players

Adam Scott (16-1): Sitting on top of the heap this week in a very muted field at Port Royal, he will put the “class v form” argument to the test. The winner of the 2013 Grand Slam of Golf on this track posted T41-MC in Japan in his last two starts. The optimist will point out he’s cashed T7 twice in his last five worldwide.

Alex Noren (18-1): Never a winner on TOUR, it’s hard for me to jump on this number.

Brendon Todd (18-1) owns the tournament scoring record and has posted three top-10 paydays from his last six on TOUR.

Akshay Bhatia (18-1) has the most recent win from this point on the list and up. Superior wind player.

Lucas Glover (20-1) busted his rust with T59 last week after ten weeks on the sidelines. He’ll be hoping the wind blows all weekend!

Thomas Detry (20-1): Making cuts for fun, his streak has reached nine worldwide. Runner up here last year, he also cashed T8 in March in the Dominican Republic. Interesting, yet I’m not sure there’s any value here for a guy who hasn’t won anywhere in the world since 2016.

Alex Smalley (20-1): Cashing in the top 10 twice this summer with T9 at TPC River Highlands and TPC Deere Run, he also produced T11 and T12 the last two years.

Lucas Herbert (22-1): Champion from 2021, the Australian did so in blustery conditions. Hell, I might just stack an all-Aussie card this week just to have some fun in this moribund field.

Taylor Pendrith (22-1): All gamers are looking for an angle. Double-dip here with the “revenge factor” and solid, current form (T15-T3).

Ben Griffin (22-1): Cashing T25 or better in five of his last nine worldwide, he also has unfinished business on the island. Playing from the final group, he was 23-under with seven holes to play. He played the next five holes SIX-OVER PAR (four bogeys, one double) and settled for T3. I wouldn’t have come back.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CoursePort Royal Golf Course.
Yards (per official scorecard):6,828.
Par:71 (36-35).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 8,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:10.5 feet.
Rough:419 Bermudagrass at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play87/4/7.
Architect(s):Robert Trent Jones (1971); Roger Rulewich (2008).
Defending Champion (event):Seamus Power (not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:N/A.
Course Record (last):61; Taylor Pendrith, Round 2, 2021.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):260 (-24); Brendon Todd, 2019.
Fact of the Week:Shortest course on TOUR.
Fact of the Week II:Par-71, 6,828 yards for the fifth consecutive event.

Notes:

  • Field of 132
  • The OWGR is represented by 2 of the top 50.
  • Sixth of seven events of the FedExCup Fall
  • $6.5 million – $1.170 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Fortinet ChampionshipMax Homa
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipMackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPKeegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREERory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipSeamus Power
Mayakoba ChampionshipRussell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston OpenTony Finau
The RSM ClassicAdam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa
World Wide TechnologyErik van Rooyen

Recent Winners – Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2022Seamus Power (-19)Set the tournament record circling TWENTY EIGHT birdies. Won by one over Thomas Detry.
2021Lucas Herbert (-15)Matched the highest-winning score. Won by a shot for his first TOUR victory in just his 20th start.
2020Brian Gay (-15)Defeated Wyndham Clark in a playoff after closing with 64.
2019Brendon Todd (-24)Posted rounds of 63 in Round 2 and closed with 62 to win by four.

Longer Shots, Longest Shots, Others

After a shootout last week in Mexico on Tiger’s track, Mother Nature is probably going to have her say this week. Tight fairways are pinched only by two inches of rough, but awkward, uneven lies will require concentration. Big Bermuda greens, exposed to the elements, will only run around 10 feet.

The winners here have ranged from 20-1, red-hot Seamus Power last year to 200-1 veteran Brian Gay. Wide open would be an understatement.

I can’t look away from Luke List (25-1) this week. With nothing to play for, he’s making the trip. Is it a trip or a trap? … It’s great to see kids Nick Dunlap (50-1) and Peter Kuest (55-1) live, but I’ll take a veteran on the upswing, Lanto Griffin (55-1) at a similar number and take my chances. … Russell Knox (90-1) won’t win but he’ll be playing the weekend. … Kramer Hickok (60-1) will be making his fifth appearance and has posted three previous in the top 30. … Kelly Kraft (110-1) has cashed five in a row and plays ocean courses well. … Satoshi Kodaira (175-1) for a top 40.

Good luck!

World Wide Technology Championship

Hey, at least it ain’t ALL CAPS again!

Way down here, you need a reason to move.

The fifth of seven FedExCup Fall tournaments should provide motivation at Tiger Woods’ El Cardonal at Diamante in Los Cabos, Mexico.

Read more: World Wide Technology Championship

World Wide Technology Championship

El Cardonal at Diamante

Los Cabos, Mexico

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Betting Stat Pack – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Odds Outlook – click here

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top 10 players

Ludvig Aberg (+900): Nothing has slowed him down over the last two months and I don’t believe a resort course setting is going to do the trick. The problem with a shootout and appears to be what we will have on the cards this week, is making enough putts over four days to win. Remember in Las Vegas he needed 62 on Sunday just to hit T13. He won’t be in my win tickets.

Cameron Young (+1200): Rest or rust? Returning to tournament competition for the first time in ten weeks, the big bomber should be licking his chops and cleaning the grooves on his wedges. Time to exact his revenge for the Ryder Cup snub?

Sahith Theegala (+1400): The interesting angle this week involves, for me, putters versus ball-strikers. With massive targets off the tee and into the greens, I would think the less accurate will have more chances to wield the putter. The absence of rough (there literally isn’t any) combined with only one water hazard should make for a less stressful week. Not many are better on and around the greens than Theegala. With a trophy on the shelf from Fortinet, he should be playing freely for the rest of the FedExCup Fall.

Beau Hossler (+2500): Looking to breakthrough for the first time on TOUR, he continues to sniff around over the last three months. Back-to-back top-10 paydays plus a run of T30 or better highlights his consistency. Add a few more bucks and take the top 20 price.

Stephan Jaeger (+2800): Making his 125th start on the PGA TOUR, he is still looking for his first podium finish. Cashing in 28 of his last 31 events including too many in a row to count, the German is on great form but hasn’t been pushing into contention on the weekends.

Lucas Glover (+3000): Nobody was interested in thinking he would end the regular season with a win and follow it up with another in the first FedExCup Playoff event. Never posting a two-win season in his career, he’s now checked that box. Time for three? I don’t think so. The putter, which was white hot for a month, has had ten weeks off from competition.

Akshay Bhatia (+3000): If this week wasn’t on Paspalum, I’m not sure he’s up here. The winner at Barracuda in July, the lefty hasn’t popped a top 20 in his last six on TOUR. BUT MAN HE LOVES PASPALUM. Opening the 2022 KFT season he won on this surface in the Bahamas, In 2023 he’s cashed solo second in Puerto Rico, T24 Corales Puntacana and solo fourth at Vidanta Mexico Open.

J.J. Spaun (+3000): After cashing in eight straight on TOUR, Spaun rolls in after his best result (T6) last week since The Sentry last January. Finding his form in the FedExCup Fall, he sits at No. 56 entering the week. One more decent finish will push him into The Ten for 2024. Everyone is playing for something!

Emiliano Grillo (+3000): Fade or follow. The man is in form, and he absolutely shreds on Paspalum. With a victory at Colonial in May, another course he annually produces on when playing, stacking his first, two-win season is on the cards. The Argentine is my first name on the team sheet this week.

Thomas Detry (+3300): The only man listed at 33/1, the Belgian has cashed eight straight worldwide. On closer inspection his best of the bunch was T13 at The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. His only win in professional golf was in 2016, but he has cashed second multiple times. Digging deeper, he’s posted T15 or better the last three times at Mayakoba and never missed in five visits.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseEl Cardonal at Diamante.
Yards (per official scorecard):7,452.
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Platinum Paspalum.
Stimpmeter:11.5 feet.
Rough:There isn’t any!
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play48/1/1.
Architect(s):Tiger Woods (2014).
Defending Champion (event):Russell Henley (not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:N/A.
Course Record (last):Inaugural event.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):Inaugural event.
Fact of the Week:First Tiger Woods designed course to be used on the PGATOUR.
Fact of the Week II:Resort course Par-72.

Notes:

  • Field of 132
  • The OWGR is represented by 5 of the top 50.
  • Nine of the top 10 FedExCup Fall are entered.
  • Fifth event of the FedExCup Fall season (seven events).
  • $8.2 million – $1.475 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

EventWinner
Fortinet ChampionshipMax Homa
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipMackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPKeegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREERory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipSeamus Power
Mayakoba ChampionshipRussell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston OpenTony Finau
The RSM ClassicAdam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESSJon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble BeachJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenScottie Scheffler
The Genesis InvitationalJon Rahm (3)
The Honda ClassicChris Kirk
Arnold Palmer InvitationalKurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipTaylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales PuntacanaMatt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MPSam Burns
Valero Texas OpenCorey Conners
MastersJon Rahm (4)
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New OrleansDavis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at VidantaTony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipWyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron NelsonJason Day
PGA ChampionshipBrooks Koepka
Charles Schwab ChallengeEmiliano Grillo
MemorialViktor Hovland
RBC Canadian OpenNick Taylor
U.S. OpenWyndham Clark (2)
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicRickie Fowler
John Deere ClassicSepp Straka
Genesis Scottish OpenRory McIlroy (2)
The Open ChampionshipBrian Harman
3M OpenLee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham ChampionshipLucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipLucas Glover (2)
BMW ChampionshipViktor Hovland (2)
TOUR ChampionshipViktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet ChampionshipSahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipLuke List
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPCollin Morikawa

Recent Winners – World Wide Technology Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2022Russell HenleyPosted 23-under, won by four. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2021Viktor HovlandPosted 23-under, won by four. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2020Viktor HovlandPosted 20-under, won by a shot. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2019Brendon ToddPosted 20-under, won by a shot. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.
2018Matt KucharPosted 22-under, won by one. Paspalum layout at Mayakoba.

Longer Shots, Longest Shots, Others

Now, let’s have some fun! New course, no weather, big fairways, big greens, and plenty of rounds in the 60s should be flying around.

There is plenty of like-for-like between 35 and 50 but I’ll point out Adam Svensson (+3500) has cashed nine straight T41 or better. … I keep falling back to Las Vegas guys again this week in the arid, desert-like setting so don’t be surprised if 54-hole leader in Japan, Justin Suh (+5000), starts rolling in putts from everywhere. … Taylor Montgomery (+6000) is starting to come around again and enjoys Par Breakers for breakfast. … Brandon Wu (+7000) loves Mexico and Paspalum. … Maverick McNealy (+8000) returns this week after a long layoff rehabbing a shoulder. I don’t like the number but when healthy, he can get it going with the putter. … Mackenzie Hughes (+10000) always pops up this time of year and has two previous podiums on this surface. … There’s my Paspalum buddy Cam Percy (+30000) sitting in the weeds. … My three best BOOM OR BUST picks are Harry Hall (+10000), Ryan Moore (+20000), and Brice Garnett (+30000).

Good luck!