06-28-17

Billy Hurley, III, defends his title this week on his home practice course.

The Tour hasn’t been here since 2006 and TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm has since undertaken major renovations.

One-and-done

 

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

 Season total: $3,306,464; 33 events

• Wins:
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds:
• Top 10s: 8
• Top 25s: 7
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Safeway Open	Grayson Murray	MC	$0
CIMB Classic	Hideki Matsuyama	T-2	$756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Martin Kaymer	T-40	$62,000
Sanderson Farms	Patton Kizzire	MC	$0
Shriners	Chris Kirk	T-61	$14,190
OHL Mayakoba	Emiliano Grillo	T-10	$175,000
RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T-10	$150,000
SBS TOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-14	$122,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell, III	T-8	$180,000
CB Challenge	Jamie Lovemark	MC	$0
Farmers Insurance	Jimmy Walker	MC	$0
WMPO	Brendan Steele	T-16	$90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	65th	$15,120
Genesis Open	Charl Schwartzel	MC	$0
Honda Classic	Russell Knox	MC	$0
WGC-MC	Justin Rose	T-38	$64,000
Valspar	Bill Haas	T-41	$21,451
Arnold Palmer	Henrik Stenson	MC	$0
Puerto Rico Open	Luke List	T-37	$12,900
WGC-Match Play	Rory McIlroy	T-30	$74,000
Shell Houston Open	Jon Rahm	T-10	$182,000
Masters	Jordan Spieth	T-11	$223,200
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-11	$114,045
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	T-40	$21,727
Zurich Classic	Thomas Pieters	MC	$0
Wells Fargo	Kevin Kisner	MC	$0
THE PLAYERS	Sergio Garcia	T-30	$65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson	Brooks Koepka	T-50	$18,090
DEAN & DELUCA	Bud Cauley	T-41	$24,050
Memorial	Dustin Johnson	MC	$0
FedEx St. Jude Classic	Billy Horschel	T-4	$252,000
U.S. Open	Rickie Fowler	T-4	$420,334
Travelers	Paul Casey	T-5	$248,200

 

Thermometer:

Just like summertime, I’m getting warmed up but it’s not boiling hot.

For the third consecutive week I have hit the top five.

For the third consecutive week I have not been inside the top three.

With ZERO wins or seconds on the board in 2017 I can’t be thrilled but banging out top 10’s in consecutive weeks has me feeling confident.

 

Last week:

I didn’t have Spieth in the mix and explained why in last week’s column  but I gave you a few tasty ones regardless. Other than Justin Thomas taking a weekend off, you can’t be too mad at me!

My Choice: Paul Casey — T-5

Close Second: Justin Thomas — MC

Outliers: Patrick Reed — T-5, Brian Harman — T-35

Gut Shots: Brandt Snedeker — T-14, Daniel Berger — P-2

Rank Outsiders: Keegan Bradley — T-8, Patrick Rodgers — T-35, Jim Furyk — T-26

 

Keys this Week:

Keep it in play.

Zac Blair tweeted a picture of some nasty Bluegrass rough off the tight fairways.

The winning score here in the previous two Web.com events, the last pro tournaments on this track, all had single-digit winning scores.

In 2013, the final year of the Web.com using this track, only nine players were under par for the week. NOYNE!

The last two players to win on “new” tracks were Brian Harman (Eagle Point) and Brooks Koepka (Erin Hills). Interesting to note that Harman finished T-2 at the U.S. Open as well. Shame he’s not playing this week! Maybe Brendan Steele keeps the tradition rolling! Or Brett Stegmaier.

 

My Weekly Finalists:

I explain in more details in my preview what I’m looking for on the course.

 My Favorites:

Almost a copy-and-paste from last week!

Patrick Reed: He’s heating up as he usually does this time of year. It’s time to strap on the red, white and blue on essentially Fourth of July weekend and I’m not betting against Captain America.

Justin Thomas: He tweeted that the weekend off last week will help after a tough Sunday at Erin Hills. With top 10’s in two starts before Travelers why wouldn’t I believe him?

Brendan Steele: Covers the BR angle for new course winners and is in the form of his life.

Marc Leishman: Again, just a very steady stream of golf from tee to picking it up out of the hole. Nothing fancy or flashy but I’m not sure that will be required on this track this week. #Grind.

Bill Haas: Speaking of grinding, nobody makes more pars than this fella except maybe Jim Furyk. Last time out he was T-5 at Erin Hills so finding confidence won’t be an issue.

My Choice: Patrick Reed

Close Second: Bill Haas

Outliers: Graham DeLaet, Danny Lee

Gut Shot(s): Kevin Chappell

Rank Outsiders: Keegan Bradley, Kevin Streelman

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them.

Thin field this week with only 120 players so is it time to take a chance?

It sure is, especially if you are in the peloton.

The last two winners of this event have been ranked over 100 in the world and they won on two different tracks.

This is why being in the breakaway pack is fun. You don’t have to convince yourself on the longer shots.

Should I burn…

Throw a dart.

Drop a pen.

Have your dog pick.

48 weeks. 48 guys. Plenty to choose from!

Greenbrier, JDC, The Open, Barbasol, RBC Canadian, WGC-BI, Barracuda, PGA Championship and Wyndham plus four Playoff events.

There’s not much time to chase it down.

If you are “out of guys” for the last two events but you’re not eliminated, you’ll find somebody!

Having somebody and being mathematically eliminated doesn’t do it!

Good Luck!