06-21-17

The winners here the last few years will make this test a bit more trying this week.

So will the addition of three mega players.

This fella defends but he’s not nearly  in the form that he was at this event last year.

One-and-done

 

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

 

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

Season total: $3,058,264; 32 events

• Wins:
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds:
• Top 10s: 7
• Top 25s: 7
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Safeway Open	Grayson Murray	MC	$0
CIMB Classic	Hideki Matsuyama	T-2	$756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Martin Kaymer	T-40	$62,000
Sanderson Farms	Patton Kizzire	MC	$0
Shriners	Chris Kirk	T-61	$14,190
OHL Mayakoba	Emiliano Grillo	T-10	$175,000
RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T-10	$150,000
SBS TOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-14	$122,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell, III	T-8	$180,000
CB Challenge	Jamie Lovemark	MC	$0
Farmers Insurance	Jimmy Walker	MC	$0
WMPO	Brendan Steele	T-16	$90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	65th	$15,120
Genesis Open	Charl Schwartzel	MC	$0
Honda Classic	Russell Knox	MC	$0
WGC-MC	Justin Rose	T-38	$64,000
Valspar	Bill Haas	T-41	$21,451
Arnold Palmer	Henrik Stenson	MC	$0
Puerto Rico Open	Luke List	T-37	$12,900
WGC-Match Play	Rory McIlroy	T-30	$74,000
Shell Houston Open	Jon Rahm	T-10	$182,000
Masters	Jordan Spieth	T-11	$223,200
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-11	$114,045
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	T-40	$21,727
Zurich Classic	Thomas Pieters	MC	$0
Wells Fargo	Kevin Kisner	MC	$0
THE PLAYERS	Sergio Garcia	T-30	$65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson	Brooks Koepka	T-50	$18,090
DEAN & DELUCA	Bud Cauley	T-41	$24,050
Memorial	Dustin Johnson	MC	$0
FedEx St. Jude Classic	Billy Horschel	T-4	$252,000
U.S. Open	Rickie Fowler	T-4	$420,334

 

Thermometer:

Well, then.

That’s back-to-back T-4’s and one of them was in a major.

Maybe the tide is turning or maybe I just turn it up for the majors.

Before the Masters I pegged Jon Rahm for T-10 at SHO and followed that up with T-11 from Jordan Spieth the following week.

Before the U.S. Open I saddled Billy Horschel for T-4 at FESJC and followed with Rickie Fowler T-4 at Erin Hills.

I understand that winners are what we are all looking for but not having to complain for two weeks feels like #Winning. And I did list the winner in a major from a field of 156 so don’t hate too much!

 

Last week:

My Choice: Rickie Fowler — T-4

Close Second: Adam Scott — MC, Jason Day — MC

Outliers: Brooks Koepka — WIN, Alex Noren — MC, Patrick Reed — T-13

Gut Shots: Branden Grace — T-50, Shane Lowry — T-46

 

Keys this Week:

Easy greens and a TPC set-up should help the world’s best decompress after a busy week at Erin Hills.

At only 6,800 and change from the tips, this will bring in plenty of challengers.

Last year, Russell Knox backed up his T-22 at Oakmont to take his second title of the year over, wait for it, Jerry Kelly. Yes, the same guy who is playing on the Champions Tour this year. Paul Casey lost to Bubba Watson in a playoff the year before and neither of them can find fairways or putt. Kevin Streelman shot 64-64 on the weekend in 2014 to win. Marc Leishman closed with 62 to win in 2012. Jim Furyk shot 58 here last year and didn’t hit the podium.

Patterns?

There aren’t any.

Does that qualify?

 

My Weekly Finalists:

I explain in more details in my preview what I’m looking for on the course.

 

My Favorites:

Justin Thomas: The lean goes to the guy with three wins under his belt and the major-record setting 63 last week at Erin Hills.

Paul Casey: He just keeps racking up GIR and excels in par four scoring plus he’s 24-under the last two years at TPC River Highlands.

Brendan Steele: His excellent record on TPC courses should not go unnoticed. For those of you daydreaming about Montreux in August he currently sits No. 52 and would be in WGC-Bridgestone instead. His T-13, career best at a major, last week put the spotlight on him this week.

Marc Leishman: Too many good results here and has never MC in six tries. He’s been excellent across the board this year and currently stands No. 10 in SGT.

Bubba Watson: He’s fresh here most years and the results usually follow. The 2010 and 2015 champ hasn’t fired on his usual favorite tracks this year but if I’m leading or near it, I can live with seven top 25’s in 10 starts. #SafetyFirst.

 

My Choice: Paul Casey

Close Second: Justin Thomas

Outliers: Patrick Reed, Brian Harman (won before JDC but no guarantee he plays)

Gut Shots: Brandt Snedeker

Rank Outsiders: Keegan Bradley, Patrick Rodgers, Jim Furyk

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them.

Where are all of the top players ranked in the top 10 in the OWGR?

Not in my lineup?

I don’t think it’s a terrible question but there are two majors, a WGC and four playoff events left that I will need seven ballers in my stable. As stated above there are too many goofy factors this week to burn a premium player unless desperation has taken over.

How long can my long shot be?

How much wood can you woodchuck chuck?

There are 14 events left but two are opposite of The Open and WGC-BI.

As Yogi Berra once said, “it gets late early” and that’s not much time to stake the future on hopefuls.

If you’re not faring well but trying to win a weekly prize, dig as deep as you would like.

If you’re leading or near the top and you’re stuck, it’s “Bubba Time” no question.

For those of you trying to chase down the leaders it’s always the toughest selection.

Should I burn…

Throw a dart.

Drop a pen.

Have your dog pick.

48 weeks. 48 guys. Plenty to choose from!

It’s time to start looking at top 30 FEC so you have ammo deep into the playoffs.

Conversely, it’s never any fun to look down for the first Playoff event and realize you have 12 really good players left for Four events. You can’t save forever!

Good Luck!