10-12-16

For those of you who would like to dig a little deeper.

Well, I’m glad THAT is over.

2015-16 was an absolute, unmitigated disaster and that was with TWO wins.

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

Not enough wins.

Nil seconds.

One third. ONE?

Three podiums.

If you haven’t stopped reading yet, thank you.

I did find some joy last season but it was too far and between.

Highlights in BOLD unlike most of my pics

Let’s review:

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Frys.com	Brooks Koepka	T-41	$21,000
Shriners	Scott Piercy	T-25	$44,832
CIMB	Anirban Lahiri	T-21	$78,400
WGC-HSBC Champions	Adam Scott	T-70	$42,000
Sanderson Farms	Patrick Rodgers	T-20	$41,356
OHL Mayakoba	Patton Kizzire	T-58	$13,764
RSM	Brendon de Jonge	T-33	$27,049
HTOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-3	$381,000
Sony	Kevin Kisner	T-5	$220,400
CB Challenge	Ryan Palmer	T-17	$75,897
Farmers	Phil Mickelson	MC	$0
Waste Management	Hideki Matsuyama	WIN	$1,170,000
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jimmy Walker	T-11	$143,500
NTO	Dustin Johnson	4th	$326,400
Honda	Luke Donald	T-61	$13,115
WGC-Cadillac Champ	Henrik Stenson	T-28	$79,428
Valspar	Danny Willett	T-22	$52,959
Arnold Palmer	Scott Brown	T-27	$41,934
WGC-Dell Match Play	Rickie Fowler	T-53	$63,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graham DeLaet	T-11	$66,000
Shell Houston Open	Louis Oosthuizen	MC	$0
Masters	Bubba Watson	T-37	$50,250
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-9	$147,500
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	WIN	$1,116,000
Zurich Classic	Daniel Berger	T-20	$64,909
Wells Fargo	J.B. Holmes	T-53	$16,589
THE PLAYERS	Rory McIlroy	T-12	212,625
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Dufner	T-24	54,020
Colonial	Kevin Chappell	MC	$0
Memorial	Paul Casey	MC	$0
FESJC	Gary Woodland	MC	$0
U.S. Open	Jason Day	T-8	$247,806
Quicken Loans	Patrick Reed	T-39	$28,290
Barracuda	Jon Rahm	MDF	$6,420
WGC-BI	Shane Lowry	T-36	$73,500
Barbasol	Kyle Reifers	T-35	$15,808
The Open	Sergio Garcia	T-5	$310,797
RBC Canadian Open	David Hearn	MC	$0
PGA Championship	Branden Grace	T-4	$405,000
Travelers	Ryan Moore	T-17	$83,490
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T-34	$24,240
Wyndham	William McGirt	MC	$0
The Barclays	Justin Rose	T-31	$45,220
DBC	Justin Thomas	MC	$0
BMW	Emiliano Grillo	T-32	$46,021
TOUR Championship	Jordan Spieth	T-17	$166,600

Fachts:

This is only the third Safeway Open at Silverado so course form is minimal but does exist.

Every year I try and relieve each painful week that didn’t result in a victory and wonder what I could have done better. Most weeks it’s quite simple: Pick better golfers. The big ticket events that gamers save their premium players for are hard to win. The “off” week events that gamers move and shake hot players, up-and-comers or brand newbies are just as important.

Lessons Learned:

One, there’s no point in back-loading your strategy because there is absolutely no guarantee of the players left until the end firing when YOU need them to. Jason Day (BMW, TTC) and Jordan Spieth would be two excellent examples from last season to point to. The argument can be made that it MIGHT be easier to win a full field event than a reduced event with the top of the top players. There’s no right or wrong answer because if the pro doesn’t fire, he doesn’t fire. I’m more interested in finding the event and form that matches up. I’ll get to the FEC Playoffs this year when I get to them. #StrategyShifted.

Two, majors and WGC are for the biggest and the baddest and nothing is changing my opinion of this. Not even wins from Shane Lowry and Russell Knox in the last 15 months will sway my opinion. Before those two rattled off wins Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy and Bubba Watson already had. Then, they were followed by Adam Scott, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson immediately after.

As for the majors, the “worst” winner in recent times is Lucas Glover and he has three TOUR wins. Willett gets a pass here because it’s too early to tell. Next on that list are Webb Simpson and Jason Dufner with four wins apiece. First time winners from last year included Dustin Johnson (now 12 wins), Henrik Stenson (has won everything everywhere) and Jimmy Walker (5 wins in the previous 2.5 years). Better find guys who shine on the biggest stages to collect the biggest checks.

OWGR Top 20 2015-16 Recap

The WHY:

Jason Day: T-8 at Oakmont was decent and I can’t complain about a top 10 in a major. Finished 2nd at the PGA so I didn’t pick the right one but I wasn’t waiting around for him to find his annual injury.

Dustin Johnson: 4th at Riviera sounded great at the time until he won a major, WGC and FEC Playoff event later in the year. Even when I was right I was wrong…

Rory McIlroy: T-12 at THE PLAYERS as he’s done everything but win there. After seeing him MC in two of the final three majors of the season, I’m not thrilled but I’m hardly on tilt. I had no intentions of saving him for East Lake so I lost before I lost.

Jordan Spieth: I’ll save you the time and let you know he’s going to be my pick at the Masters every year from now on. T-17 at East Lake wasn’t ideal but it hardly mattered for me at that point. Spieth has now finished 2nd, 29th, WIN and T-17 at East Lake.

Henrik Stenson: Burned him at Doral even though he has better history other places. Panic buy that failed miserably.

Adam Scott: Tried to steal a pot in the first WGC of the season. He finished second the week prior and came almost DFL. Harbinger of things to come last year.

Patrick Reed: T-39 QLN seemed like the only week he didn’t hit the top 10 last year and I had him. He entered that week with four top 10’s in his previous five. Burnt.

Bubba Watson: 2-time champ at Augusta entered Masters week off of win, second in his previous two stroke play events. That was his last top 10 until his T-10 at East Lake. His T=37 in the first major of the season wasn’t much consolation.

Danny Willett: Right church, wrong pew as I pulled the trigger on the Englishman prematurely at Valspar for T-22. He was T-3 the week before at Doral and had already grabbed T-3 at WGC-HSBC earlier in the year.

Rickie Fowler: T-58 WGC-Dell Match Play. I wasn’t the only one burned on Fowler as he entered that week off of five top 10’s in his last six weeks. Burnt.

Justin Rose: Saved him for the Playoffs and thought I was in fat city after he won the Gold Medal in Rio. As per usual, I was just fat and took a T-31 at The Barclays for my troubles. He’s a perfect fit for East Lake when he qualifies.

Paul Casey: One of my high-profile MC’s (Memorial). I’ll remember that Casey has played East Lake three times. Each time he’s finished in the top five.

Sergio Garcia: He must go at THE PLAYERS, The Open, Byron Nelson or Arnold Palmer. I went with The Open and he finished T-5. Bueno.

Branden Grace: Showed another side to his game by handling a tight, short Harbour Towne for his first win. I was on board when he came in T-5 at Oakmont so no complaints here. He also was T-4 at the PGA Championship reinforcing that he loves that event.

Phil Mickelson: He MC at some of his favorite spots on Tour that killed gamers like me. Torrey Pines, Masters, U.S. Open, THE PLAYERS. His T-33 at Baltusrol didn’t help either. He did show at some of his other favorites as he picked up T-2 in Memphis, T-4 at Quail Hollow and solo second at Royal Troon. I went ugly early at Torrey Pines as I tried to ride the wave of his T-3 the previous week in Palm Desert. Nope. I wouldn’t have gotten past the Masters anyhow…

Jimmy Walker: My rule with Walker is he needs to be burned by the week after the Valero. All of his wins have been early in the season and in Hawaii, California or Texas. His T-11 at Pebble Beach saved me as he MC at Riviera and TPC San Antonio, two of his favorite tracks. His first major came at Baltusrol and he chucked in a solo third at the DBC for some late season magic.

Matt Kuchar: He didn’t win for the second consecutive season but he’s LIVE on about a dozen courses so I hope you rustled up one of those hits. I enjoyed my backdoor top 10 at RBC Heritage, the site of his last victory.

Hideki Matsuyama: BANG BISCUITS. A WINNER. He’s young enough not to have enough trends but good enough where he can fit almost every week if necessary.

Russell Knox: Took him to the grave as I didn’t fire him during the Playoffs after his win at the Travelers. Again, I was already toasted cheese by then, sadly.

Brandt Snedeker: One of three podiums as he was third at Kapalua. Ironically for me he was second the following week and then won the week after that. I couldn’t catch a break! He won in Fiji last week by nine shots so no Ryder Cup hangover here.

2016-17 season

Season total: $0

• Wins:
• Seconds:
• Thirds:
• Top 10s:
• Top 25s:
• MC:

 

Thermometer:

Still in the shop after last year.

 

Keys this Week:

The winner this week will need to be able to dominate the par fives and stay out of trouble otherwise. Year three at Silverado should give those who have played the first two editions a slight advantage but this is still a resort course. With a completely OPEN field and a pair of winners that surprised in the first two years, we’ll have plenty to choose from, sadly.

 

My Finalists:

OWGR listed in (  )

 

Justin Thomas (34)

Jon Rahm (133)

Grayson Murray (163)

Kyle Reifers (112)

Patrick Rodgers (126)

 

My Choice: Murray

Close Second: Thomas

Just Missed: Rahm

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

• Why Murray?
• Where’s Casey, Mickelson, Kuchar, Grillo, etc?

 

ANSWER(S) OF THE WEEK:

• He’s LIT as he finished the Web.com Playoffs third at Albertson’s in Boise and won the Nationwide in Columbus on Bent/Poa. I’m riding his current form and won’t have to worry about him being this hot again later in the season. Plus, the resort course angle won’t hurt the guy who led the Web.com in birdies, scoring and all-around.
• Grillo makes sense based on his form but he’s never dealt with entering a week as a defending champion and the responsibilties that come with it. The big boys mentioned above attained that status by playing well just about everywhere. I’ll gladly save them for events that PERFECTLY match up instead of a bit of a hit and giggle where one quiet round could knock them back/out.

 

Good luck this week and this season!

Reach out if you need any help or need more information.