08-24-16

 

This is it.

See! He has a crystal ball too!

It’s predicting big hits for I’m All Right, Footloose and Highway to the Danger Zone I bet!

 

Finally, the moment we’ve all been waiting for all season.

RELEASE THE HOUNDS.

No more Mickey Mouse.

No more cheeky long shots.

No more “gut” feelings.

Time to lay all the cards on the table, if you have any left, and finish with a flourish.

 

Fachts:

• The only player to win the FEC twice is Tiger Woods so history says a new, fresh face should hold the trophy again this season.
• The only players that have defended their FEC titles at East Lake are Woods and Snedeker. Spieth will join that very small club in a few weeks as he sits No. 5 entering the Playoffs.
• Nobody has successfully defended their FEC championship since the invention in 2007.

History Lessons:

Since the advent of the FEC Playoffs in 2007, there have been a few fellas win multiple times.

• Tiger Woods, 3
• Vijay Singh, 2*
• Camilo Villegas, 2*
• Steve Stricker, 2
• Dustin Johnson, 2
• Rory McIlroy, 2*
• Henrik Stenson, 2*
• Billy Horschel, 2*
• Jason Day, 2*

*same season

Only Woods, Stricker and Johnson have won titles over multiple years.

Only DJ was won titles in CONSECUTIVE years.

There has been a multiple winner in the last FOUR YEARS IN A ROW.

Only two of the four went on to win the $10 million (Stenson, Horschel).

The list of winners contains very few surprises outside of Slocum, Hoffman and maybe a young Villegas. Everyone else who’s won one of these events has been a multiple winner on Tour.

Conclusion: Go big or go home.

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Frys.com	Brooks Koepka	T-41	$21,000
Shriners	Scott Piercy	T-25	$44,832
CIMB	Anirban Lahiri	T-21	$78,400
WGC-HSBC Champions	Adam Scott	T-70	$42,000
Sanderson Farms	Patrick Rodgers	T-20	$41,356
OHL Mayakoba	Patton Kizzire	T-58	$13,764
RSM	Brendon de Jonge	T-33	$27,049
HTOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-3	$381,000
Sony	Kevin Kisner	T-5	$220,400
CB Challenge	Ryan Palmer	T-17	$75,897
Farmers	Phil Mickelson	MC	$0
Waste Management	Hideki Matsuyama	WIN	$1,170,000
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jimmy Walker	T-11	$143,500
NTO	Dustin Johnson	4th	$326,400
Honda	Luke Donald	T-61	$13,115
WGC-Cadillac Champ	Henrik Stenson	T-28	$79,428
Valspar	Danny Willett	T-22	$52,959
Arnold Palmer	Scott Brown	T-27	$41,934
WGC-Dell Match Play	Rickie Fowler	T-53	$63,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graham DeLaet	T-11	$66,000
Shell Houston Open	Louis Oosthuizen	MC	$0
Masters	Bubba Watson	T-37	$50,250
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-9	$147,500
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	WIN	$1,116,000
Zurich Classic	Daniel Berger	T-20	$64,909
Wells Fargo	J.B. Holmes	T-53	$16,589
THE PLAYERS	Rory McIlroy	T-12	212,625
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Dufner	T-24	54,020
Colonial	Kevin Chappell	MC	$0
Memorial	Paul Casey	MC	$0
FESJC	Gary Woodland	MC	$0
U.S. Open	Jason Day	T-8	$247,806
Quicken Loans	Patrick Reed	T-39	$28,290
Barracuda	Jon Rahm	MDF	$6,420
WGC-BI	Shane Lowry	T-36	$73,500
Barbasol	Kyle Reifers	T-35	$15,808
The Open	Sergio Garcia	T-5	$310,797
RBC Canadian Open	David Hearn	MC	$0
PGA Championship	Branden Grace	T-4	$405,000
Travelers	Ryan Moore	T-17	$83,490
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T-34	$24,240
Wyndham	William McGirt	MC	$0

 

2015-16 season

Season total: $5,729,088; 42 events

• Wins: 2
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 17
• MC: 7 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham)

 

Last week: William McGirt, MC; $0

 

Thermometer:

I’ve thrown it in the trash.

I’m not looking back.

The object of the season is to contend in the off weeks and collect in the majors.

My last three top 10’s in this format have been the last three major championships.

Everything else has been a five-alarm dumpster fire and a perfect learning tool for new and old players. Great theories are just that if the players don’t perform. I’m blaming the new schedule and the Olympics for screwing everything up. Those of you, who have navigated the off-kilter season, take a bow.

Whatever.

 

Keys this Week:

• Big boy golf
• Stick to the plan
• Great week for leaders

Top Players Remaining:

Listed by OWGR position; FedExCup Points in parentheses

3.) Jordan Spieth (5)

9.) Justin Rose (51)

20.) Russell Knox (4)

22.) Jim Furyk (94)

25.) Charl Schwartzel (30)

29.) Scott Piercy (34)

30.) Kevin Kisner (11)

31.) Kevin Na (9)

32.) Bill Haas (29)

33.) Justin Thomas (10)

37.) Emiliano Grillo (32)

The good news is I have these players remaining.

The bad news is I have these players remaining.

 

My Choice: Justin Rose

Close Second: Jim Furyk

Long Shot Special: No point with only four events left.

Stratagem: As discussed further below, those of you who are leading have played all season for this moment. Most who win or are leading will have multiple bullets remaining for four big payday events ($8.5 million purses each). Play the big, fat, nasty chalk and make the chasers catch a miracle. Big events usually require big players and the last two events are no cut so it’s even a bigger advantage.

For those of you trailing, creativity might have to come into play. I’ve shown you above what a bad season looks like and what it’s forcing my hand to do. It will come down to splitting hairs but this week I’m leaning on the studs and the tiebreak will come down to ball-striking for me. Nick Watney made a ton of putts here in his victory in 2012 and he’s not Ben Crenshaw. Hit the most greens = most birdie chances.

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

• What are you doing???
• Why no long shot when longer shots have won here in two of three events?

 

ANSWER(S) OF THE WEEK:

• Rose currently isn’t eligible for East Lake (top 30 only), where he rakes, so I need to be proactive. If he doesn’t qualify, those of you saving him won’t care. If he does, he’ll need a big result not a couple of top 20’s. I’ll take the chance of piggybacking his momentum from beating Stenson in Rio.
• Tiger Woods won here in ’02, Glover in ’09 and Watney in ’12. One of these is not like the other. Before the Watney lovers get lathered up remember he was No. 49 in the FEC standings when he won. Rose is a venerable LONG SHOT when compared. Leaders will fire the big boy chalk they’ve been waiting all year to fire and will make the dreamers and chasers take the chance of picking the next Glover/Watney. Those who have built their lead should enjoy a relatively stress-free run-in in their selections. The four rounds will make them sweat, not the picks!

 

Good luck chops!

As always, the picks are subject to change based on tee times or weather forecasts. Reach out on Twitter for any updates.