Good morning, Kapalua 💚#TheSentry pic.twitter.com/zDZLg8CLak

— The Sentry (@TheSentry) January 2, 2024

Read more: Welcome Back! The Sentry 2024

The Sentry

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Opening Grid – click here

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

I write all of the stuff above. I’m not going to necessarily repeat everything in this column. Life is a do-it-yourself job so click and read.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll try to add it here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you any hard-earned money for reading.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

I know there are only a few of you so thanks for reading.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (+500): The last three winners here have led the field in SG: Putting. Nobody hits it better but can he it THAT WELL against a field of this class and get away with a cold-putting week? No, says I. Enjoy the free money on the top 10 bets, though.

Viktor Hovland (+800): Maybe the fourth time will be the charm? Form has never been a concern. The last two years he’s arrived after winning the Hero World Challenge in December against an elite field. His best finish is T18. What’s the hang-up? Chipping and putting on Bermuda. Well, he’s appeared to have fixed those issues. I’ll let you wade in at 8-1 to see him put it all together this week.

Collin Morikawa (+1100): Odds have already dropped from 12s to 11s since Monday morning. Not hard to figure out why. He was 35-under in his previous four rounds from 2022 thru Round 3 of 2023. His final round 72 last year saw his six-shot lead evaporate. Fading to T2 he picked up his fourth consecutive T7 or better from four starts.  Family on the island. A winner at ZOZO in October. Two-time major champion. Only concern, as usual, could be the flat stick. I’ll start writing win tickets and his name is first on the list.

Ludvig Aberg (+1400): Looking to go back-to-back on TOUR in his 15^th start anywhere as a pro. Wow. Fantastic player will be attacking history from that angle plus the Chopra Angle (keep reading). Too much for me to swallow at that price. Terribly curious to see how he follows up closing 64-61-61 from his win at The RSM though.

Xander Schauffele (+1400): One of the three former champs in the field, his last two years here have been disappointing. After his win, followed by P2 and T5, he cashed 12^th and was a WD (back/neck) last year after opening with 70. Recent winners at Kapalua have produced results in the fall and ridden that momentum to Maui. He’s played once since the Ryde Cup, T38 at ZOZO, and did not hit the Hero. Hasn’t won since July 2022.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400): In the even years, he plays great, solo fourth in 2020 and 2022. In the odd years, he hasn’t cracked the top 12. Is it the Ryder Cup? He hasn’t played since Rome, nor did he play in the weeks leading up after The TOUR Championship. He did get married! Hooking on to a guy who hasn’t played his own ball since early September isn’t for the faint of heart.

Max Homa (+1400): This Californian checks the boxes for me as my No. 2 this week. After winning in South Africa in November, he knocked the rust off in The Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge. I can’t point to a recent full-field event where he wasn’t in the top 25. He finished T3 here last year and will be making his fourth start. Super on the greens as well, I’d expect a big week from him again.

Jordan Spieth (+1800): Nobody loves Horses for Courses more than I do and the Texan qualifies. The 2016 champ hit the podium in his first three, and the top 10 in his first four, but has been quiet since. Tied with Schauffele and Matsuyama more the most starts in the field (7 this week), he knows his way around. With the expanded family, a new baby arrived in September, and a jumpy putter, this number feels like a stretch. He’ll hope for tougher, breezy conditions to allow his creativity and short game to flourish.

Tom Kim (+2200): Debuting last year, he racked up T5 and wondered what all the fuss was about. The birdie machine would be higher on my list if the conditions were benign. I haven’t seen enough of him in the breeze to run him to the front, especially in a field of this strength. Form won’t be a concern as a busy fall worldwide included defending his title in the weather-less Las Vegas desert.  

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	The Plantation Course at Kapalua
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,596
Par:	73 (36-37)
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 8,722 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Celebration Bermuda at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	93/0/0.
Architect(s):	Coore and Crenshaw (1999).
Defending Champion (event):	Jon Rahm (-27; not entered; no longer holds TOUR status).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	None.
Course Record (last):	61; set three times in 2022 (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Matt Jones, none entered this week).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):	258 (-34); Cam Smith 2022 (no longer a member on TOUR).
Fact of the Week:	72 holes, no cut.
Fact of the Week II:	There are 18 players making their debut this week. The only player to win on the first attempt at Kapalua was Daniel Chopra in 2008.

Notes:

• Field of 59.
• Winners in the calendar year 2023 or qualifiers for the BMW Championship are eligible.
• The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 25.
• First of eight SIGNATURE EVENTS of 2024.
• $20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Italics – not entered

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

Recent Winners – The Sentry

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Jon Rahm (-25)	Won by two, no longer a member on TOUR.
2022	Cam Smith (-34)	Set the tournament scoring record, no longer a member on TOUR.
2021	Harris English (-25)	Won in a playoff on his second visit.
2020	Justin Thomas (-14)	Won a three-man playoff over Schauffele and Reed in breezy conditions.
2019	Xander Schauffele     (-23)	Closed with 62, tying the course record, to win on his second try.
2018	Dustin Johnson (-24)	Tied the Plantation course margin of victory, winning by eight shots.

Angles

The Plantation Course tips at 7,596 yards, the third longest course used in 2023, and plays to Par-73.

The Plantation Course has ranked as the easiest course on TOUR the last three seasons, playing more than three shots under par per round annually. Weather is the only deterrent to scoring.

The resort course features generous fairways and the largest greens complexes on TOUR.

Elevation changes and uneven lies will challenge players on second shots.

TifEagle Bermuda greens running at 11 feet will allow players to be aggressive on the short grass.

The last eight winners have produced seven champions who finished first or second in SG: Putting.

The last eight winners have ranked in the top eight in SG: Off the tee.

The last 10 winners of this event have been household names. The best players have no problem going low.

Stretching

Players for the top 10 and top 20 action

Australian Cam Davis (66/1) will try to continue the proud Australian tradition at this event. The last wire-to-wire winner and champion to defend was Geoff Ogilvy (2009-2010). Stuart Appleby rattled off three straight wins from 2004-2006. Cameron Smith set the tournament scoring record in 2022. Making his second start, he quietly picked off a T10 on debut in 2022 with four rounds in the 60s for 23-under.

The top 10 finishers of 2023 included debutants Tom Hoge (150/1) at T3, Tom Kim (22/1) at T5, and Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1) at T7. This year, 18 players are making their maiden voyages at the Plantation Course. While Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark will get most of the looks, Floridian Eric Cole (66/1) makes for a lovely outsider. The 34-year-old rookie ran T3 to Aberg at The RSM Classic to wrap up a fruitful debut season on TOUR. He’s the best putter in the field, loves Bermudagrass, and won’t be bothered by the big names or big ballpark.

Akshay Bhatia (110/1) thrives in coastal settings and when conditions get breezy.

Mackenzie Hughes (150/1) quietly closed 2023 with a runner-up finish to Aberg at The RSM Classic two weeks after cashing T7 at El Cardonal in Mexico. The Canadian opened with 66 and closed with 65 here last year for T21, his best result from three visits.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread out throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs.

My theory for this game is quite simple: Use the biggest and best for the events with the biggest and best prize pools. Also, if your second guy wins this week, what’s to say he won’t win again in 2024??? Relax, it’s week 1.

This is a bonus week as there is NO CUT. You will cash. Or crash and burn.

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa

Others to consider/fade

Max Homa – Too many events in SoCal for me to use this week. He will defend at Torrey Pines and Riviera is his personal open. I won’t talk YOU out of him, though.

Xander Schauffele – This should interest the course historians at Kapalua but the rust bothers ME. You gotta do you. I’ll save him for the U.S. Open or East Lake (if your game uses that event).

Patrick Cantlay – Another quirk of mine is playing guys where they have won before. Memorial is his jam.

Jordan Spieth – New folks, it’s either Augusta or Colonial for me. Maybe Pebble.

Remember, not playing a guy you will still have 14 more chances to use them in BIG EVENTS this season. Of the top 25 OWGR, 21 are in this week. It should be difficult. It will be difficult all season.

Longshots

Sungjae Im – The best of three starts was his debut and he has gone in the wrong direction since. That direction included another top 10 plus solo 12^th. Coming off his first season in five without a podium finish doesn’t inspire but he knows his way around tee to green.

Sahith Theegala – Free roll. Winner at Fortinet in September. ELITE putter who finished 33^rd of 38 last year on these greens. He won’t do that again, promise!