Valspar Championship Betting Angles

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort

Copperhead Course

Palm Harbor, Florida

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Thoughts on Valspar

It’s difficult. Really difficult.

The flat tracks of PGA National, Bay Hill, and TPC Sawgrass have been replaced with oak-lined rolling hills and significant elevation changes.

The last four winners have all ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting and top 15 Greens in Regulation.

Par is a decent score again this week. Exactly five players have posted 10-under or better over the last three events.

Five.

This is not a hit-and-giggle or walk in the park after THE PLAYERS Championship. The cut during the last three editions was 2-over, even, and 1-over.

Survive and advance and enjoy the third-hardest three-hole closing stretch on TOUR, “The Snake Pit”.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseCopperhead Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,352.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa Trivialis overseed; TifEagle Bermuda; 5,822 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass 3.75 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play74/8/9.
Architect(s):Larry Packard (1971).
Defending Champion (event):Viktor Hovland (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:61; Matt NeSmith (Round 2, 2022) & Padraig Harrington (Round 1, 2012). Neither player is in the field this week.
Tournament Scoring Record267 (-17); Sam Burns (not entered), 2022.
Fact of the Week:Since moving to March on the schedule in 2007, the winning margin has been two or fewer shots in every year save 2022.
Fact of the Week II:The course has five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes.

Notes:

  • Field of 135.
  • No significant course changes for 2026.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • $9.1 million – $1.638 million – 500 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Valspar Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Viktor Hovland (-11)Broke a three-way tie on 7-under after 54 holes with a final round 67 to defeat Justin Thomas by a shot.
2024Peter Malnati (-12)Shot a final round 67 to win for the second time on TOUR.
2023Taylor Moore (-10)The first of three consecutive champions to post 67 in the final round. Defeated Adam Schenk by one shot.
2022Sam Burns (-17)Defeated Davis Riley in a playoff to successfully defend his title. His tournament scoring record was one of many broken in PERFECT, windless weather.
2021Sam Burns (-17)The event finished in May and Burns won on TOUR for the first time.
2019Paul Casey (-8)The Englishman became the last winner in single digits.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

LAST WEEK – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa – WD

I have no words.

Missing the cut is one thing. Quitting after one hole is another. Glad to see the online sportsbooks refund folks’ money. That was the right thing to do.

As for One and Done, if you tee it, you played. It sucks, but it’s the right call.

Nobody said you didn’t need a little luck in life, but I feel for the McIlroy/Morikawa contingent the last two weeks. Go buy a lottery ticket or two and see if Karma has returned.

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaWD0

THIS WEEK – Valspar Championship

Xander Schauffele will be on my short list of TWO for the U.S. Open. Brooks Koepka is the defending champion at Shinnecock Hills.

Justin Thomas makes sense this week, but I am not taking my chances on a guy who has just returned from back surgery.

Corey Conners has two wins at Valero, so he stays in the stable.

The Hojgaards have never made a cut here.

Jordan Spieth – Colonial or Augusta.

MY CHOICE: Jacob Bridgeman

Proven in Florida, proven in California.

He played from the final group in 2025 and secured third.

His form is T18 or better in every event this year.

LFG.

Others to consider

Viktor Hovland, Sahith Theegala, Lucas Glover, Billy Horschel, Ryo Hisatsune

Recent Form at Valspar

202520242023
Viktor Hovland (-11)Peter Malnati (-12)Taylor Moore (-10)
wins by 1 (JT)wins by 2 (Cam Young)wins by 1 (Schenk)
Par 71 – 7,352 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 yds
156 players156 players144 players
   
02 Justin Thomas -10T3 Chancler Phillips -902 Adam Schenk -9
03 Jacob Bridgeman -9T3 Mackenzie HughesT3 Jordan Spieth -8
T4 Bud Cauley -8T5 Adam Hadwin -8T7 Webb Simpson -4
T4 Ryo HisatsuneT5 Xander SchauffeleT7 Matt Wallace
T4 Billy HorschelT9 C Bezuidenhout -7T10 Justin Thomas -3
07 Davis Riley -711 Lucas Glover -6T10 Nick Taylor
T8 Seamus Power -6T12 Billy Horschel -5T10 Patton Kizzire
T8 Lucas GloverT12 Taylor MooreT10 Zac Blair
T8 Corey ConnersT12 Kevin RoyT19 Davis Riley -1
T12 Eric Cole -5T17 Matt Wallace -4T19 Denny McCarthy
T12 Xander SchauffeleT17 Akshay BhatiaT27 Chad Ramey E
T12 Ricky CastilloT17 Ben GriffinT27 Alex Smalley
T16 Matt McCarty -4T17 Keith MitchellT27 Kevin Streelman
T22 R N P -3T17 Matti SchmidT27 Stephan Jaeger
T22 Emiliano GrilloT17 Andrew NovakT27 Andrew Novak
T22 Joe HighsmithT26 Seamus Power -3 
T22 Jeremy PaulT26 Lee Hodges 
 T26 Kevin Streelman 

Truist Championship

Yep, new sponsor.

Yep, they are NOT playing Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte!

This is the Wissahickon Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club

Truist Championship

Philadelphia Cricket Club 

Wissahickon Course

Flourtown, PA

Head to PGATOUR.COM for all our content each week.

Thoughts on Chalk (odds via Bet365.com)

Rory McIlroy (+450): Riding the best, in-form ball-striker against an elite Signature Event field on an unfamiliar course sans Scottie Scheffler (not entered) isn’t the dumbest plan I’ve seen. He has demonstrated the ability to turn on the heat and go before. Remember, he’s won this EVENT four times at the Quail Hollow Club, not the Philadelphia Cricket Club. It might not matter.

Collin Morikawa (+1400): Week No. 1 with a new caddy on a brand-new course? That would be a story. I’m going to let them get four rounds under their belts.

Justin Thomas (+1600): Smoke or satisfaction? Matt Minister returns to his bag this week as Joe Greiner heads to Morikawa’s stable. The return to normalcy should pay dividends.

Xander Schauffele (+1600): He will let his full bag loose this week. Not many are better on unfamiliar, classic courses. Check his U.S. Open record in this part of the world.

Ludvig Aberg (+1600): I won’t talk you out of him, but his profile suggests next week on 7,626 yards.

Patrick Cantlay (+1800): Another who has flourished in the East Coast/Mid-Atlantic region in the last eight years. His last victory on TOUR was the 2022 BMW Championship on a first-time course at the Wilmington Country Club.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500): Just sign for a top 10 and take your money.

Russell Henley (+2500): Probably not his favorite grass, but he can get it around.

Jordan Spieth (+2500): See Fleetwood, Tommy. 62 last week, and he’s hitting it great.

Shane Lowry (+3300): He would join Schauffele as my second win ticket. Too good tee to green, and his form has been on point. The 118 bunkers will be decorations for him.

Others for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action

Read my DFS DISH column for more thoughts. Here are a few others, not mentioned before, that should/can/might fill out cards:

Boring, boring, Sungjae Im (+4500) needs to be on the card beside Keegan Bradley (+5000). A patient plodder, Justin Rose (+6000), loves this part of the world. Keith Mitchell (+7500) took last week off, knowing he had a spot in this week’s event. Lucas Glover (+11000) is a proven commodity on Tillinghast tracks. Eric Cole (+10000) is free money.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseWissahickon Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,119 yards.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:A1/A4 Bentgrass; 5,779 square feet.
Stimpmeter:13 feet.
Rough:Tall Fescue at 3 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play118/1/6
Architect(s):A.W. Tillinghast (1922); Keith Foster (2013).
Defending Champion (event):Rory McIlroy
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Rory McIlroy (4)
Course Record (latest):61; Set in the 2024 US Fourball.
72 Hole Tournament Record (Spring):First event at this course.
Fact of the Week:Any history from Quail Hollow Club will be useful NEXT WEEK for the 107th PGA Championship.

Recent Winners

  • 2025 Season Winners
EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (first time)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaWorldBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
89th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (3)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicAndrew Novak/Ben Griffin (first time for both)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Notables

  • The field of 72 includes 44 players from the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings, including nine of the top 10. Only Scheffler is absent.
  • This is the first PGA TOUR event on this course. Bernhard Langer (+1) won the 2016 Kaulig Companies Championship (Senior PLAYERS) here.
  • Playing 7,119 yards, only Pebble Beach and Waialae CC are shorter.
  • This is the second consecutive week on Bentgrass greens and the third to date.
  • The field will not be cut after 36 holes.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080
AT&T Pebble BeachLudvig AbergWD 
WM Phoenix OpenRasmus HojgaardT12195,500
Genesis InvitationalWill ZalatorisT24168,857
Mexico OpenPatrick RodgersT2559,350
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT2573,721
Arnold PalmerKeegan BradleyT5800,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaT10656,250
Valspar ChampionshipSepp StrakaT2855,844
Houston OpenAaron RaiMC 
Valero Texas OpenCorey ConnersT18113,050
89th MastersRory McIlroyWIN4,200,000
RBC HeritageScottie SchefflerT8540,000
Zurich ClassicKurt KitayamaMC 
Byron NelsonSi Woo KimT15136,719

LAST WEEK – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

With only seven of the top players in the OWGR Top 50 entering, it’s time to have some fun. And by fun, I mean I have no idea who is going to win. I’m going to trust a hot Dallas resident who is coming off his best finish, on his own ball, two weeks ago at RBC Heritage. The 54-hole leader faded on Sunday to T8, but he will not have as deep of field to hold off this time around. He shared second two years ago and was T13 last year, so it’s clear he’s comfortable in the home game.

THE CHOICE: Si Woo Kim – T15

Others to consider: Sungjae Im, Ben An, Eric Cole, Ryan Gerard, Alejandro Tosti

Wrong Dallas resident. Wrong Dallas resident with a top 10 at RBC Heritage.

I was one week too early on Scheffler.

BECAUSE I SUCK.

THIS Week – Truist Championship

Big field, big event, big problems on a brand-new (to these guys) course!

The cream continually rises to the top at these events, and I’ve burned quite a few of them already.

The no-cut feature will help. Or it will hurt watching four rounds of shitty play.

Justin Thomas is the defending event champion at the Quail Hollow Club for next week’s PGA Championship. Rory McIlroy is the landlord, owning four titles on the property. Scottie Scheffler is BACK. Xander Schauffele has been second twice in the last two events there.

I’m saving Schauffele for Oakmont.

Big fairways and a big putter? Ok, Tommy lad. Show me!

THE CHOICE: Tommy Fleetwood

Others to consider: Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley

OAD: THE PLAYERS Championship 2022

Absolutely exhausting this week if Jon Rahm isn’t on your board.

I’m exhausted.

This is a brutal field to handicap and a brutal field to pick a winner. I’ve sorted some angles for play this week but I’m guessing this is gonna be the week for RAHMIKAWA.

Time to play defense or head a different direction? Mother Nature is my selection this week!

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Preview: WM Phoenix Open 2022

Scottsdale is ready to blow the doors off, as usual, as the TOUR rolls into town after two weeks on the California coast.

Back to defend is Brooks Koepka as he leads the field of 132 at TPC Scottsdale into the party in the desert.

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