The Confidence Factor

Betting Angles – RBC Heritage

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Welcome to the fourth Signature Event of 2026.

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

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*Rob Bolton joins me LIVE every Wednesday at 4 pm at TheZoneBloomington.com

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Mike Glassscott’s Odds Outlook

Mike Glasscott’s DraftKings Prop Bets – coming soon

Expert Picks

Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings

Rob Bolton’s Sleepers

Rob Bolton’s Fantasy Insider

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseHarbour Town Golf Links
Yards (per official scorecard):7,243 (three new tee boxes for 2026).
Par:71 (36-35).
Greens:Poa Trivialis overseed; 3,700 square feet.
Stimpmeter:11.5 feet.
Rough:Ryegrass Overseeded at 1.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play51/18/18
Architect(s):Pete Dye (1969)
Defending Champion (event):Justin Thomas (-17)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record (latest):61; Justin Thomas (Round 1, 2025).
72 Hole Tournament Record (Spring):264 (-20); Brian Gay, 2009.
Fact of the Week:The last SIX winners are all major champions.
Fact of the Week II:This will be the third consecutive event at Harbour Town without a 36-hole cut.

Harbour Town

Pete Dye is back!

Small greens. Small targets off the tee. Big penalty areas.

This is the week for veterans and patience.

The driver will not be the required club on most holes.

Score when you can, make par when you cannot.

The weather annually dictates the scoring.

This week, the forecast is perfect. Winds from the Southwest all four days. Go low, my friends!

Notes:

  • Field of 82
  • $20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points.

Notables

  • The field of 82 players includes 41 of the top 50 from the Official World Golf Rankings.
  • The winners from 2024 and 2023 both posted 63 in Round 3. Last year, Thomas tied the course record in Round 1.
  • In 2024, Scottie Scheffler joined Bernhard Langer as the only two players to win this event after donning the green jacket the week prior. That streak will continue as Rory McIlroy is not in the field.
  • Boo Weekley (2007-2008) was the last player to win back-to-back events.
  • Wesley Bryan (2017) is the only native South Carolinian to win the event.
  • Thomas is the only winner in the last five years to rank inside the top 20 (3rd) in SG: Putting.
  • The scoring averages of 69.351 in 2024 and 69.368 are the two lowest April totals since the putting surfaces were regrassed in 2016.
  • Extra holes were required to determine three of the last four winners.
  • There is not a 36-hole cut this week.

Recent Winners – RBC Heritage

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Justin Thomas (-17*)Defeated Andrew Novak in a playoff to win in his seventh attempt.
2024Scottie Scheffler (-19)Won by three shots to become the second player to win the Masters and the RBC Heritage in back-to-back weeks.
2023Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)Knocked out reigning champion Jordan Spieth in a playoff.
2022Jordan Spieth (-13)Eliminated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. He is the last winner to not play from the final group.
2021Stewart Cink (-19)At 47, just missed becoming the oldest winner. Won for the THIRD time.
2020Webb Simpson (-22)June event due to COVID-19. Easiest conditions in memory.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarría
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young
Valspar ChampionshipMatt Fitzpatrick
Texas Children’s Houston OpenGary Woodland
Valero Texas OpenJ.J. Spaun
Masters TournamentRory McIlroy

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first-time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaWD0
Valspar ChampionshipJacob BridgemanT14161,525
Houston OpenChris GotterupT6322,987
Valero Texas OpenSudarshan YellamarajuT14159,250

Last WEEK – Masters

Welcome aboard to all the top 50 players in the OWGR!

Time to break glass in case of an emergency!

THE CHOICE: Jon Rahm – T38

He looks pissed. He sounds pissed. He probably is pissed that he’s stuck in the desert while the rest of the guys head back to civilization.

I hope he takes it out on the field.

He opened with 78. The end.

Unbelievable.

Who knew that Tyrrell Hatton was the best player over there?

This Week – RBC Heritage

Since I sacrificed Cantlay on the other coast with small greens, it’s back to the drawing board this week.

Yogi Berra once remarked, “It’s getting late early”, and I feel that with OAD.

This season has been nothing short of a dumpster fire. If I charged you to read this, which I don’t, I would probably provide a refund. PROBABLY.

Whatever.

The pick this week is Russell Henley.

My God have mercy on his soul.

Others

Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jacob Bridgeman, Brian Harman

Horses for Courses

Patrick Cantlay – T13-T3-3rd-2nd L4Y

Brian Harman – T3-T12-T7 L3Y

J.T. Poston – Worst payday from four weekends is T11

Sepp Straka – T13-T5-MC-T3 L4Y

Denny McCarthy – Cashed in five straight

Tony Finau – Cashed in five straight

Tom Hoge – T18 on last two visits

Si Woo Kim – 54-hole leader in 2025; lost a big lead in 2018 (P2)

Maverick McNealy – Two T4 or better since 2021

Valero Texas Open Betting Angles

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Brian Harman returns to defend his 2025 title at The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio via @ValeroTXOpen

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course)

San Antonio, Texas

*Rob Bolton joins me LIVE every Wednesday at 4 pm at TheZoneBloomington.com

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Mike Glassscott’s Odds Outlook

Mike Glasscott’s DraftKings Prop Bets

Expert Picks

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Rob Bolton’s Sleepers

Rob Bolton’s Fantasy Insider

Extra Players to watch for Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, and Top 40

You do you. Stick ‘em wherever. Not listed in my columns above.

Bronson Burgoon, Ryo Hisatsune, Thorbjorn Olesen, Rico Hoey, Carson Young

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseTPC San Antonio – The Oaks Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,438.
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:Overseeded Poa Trivialis; 6,400 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass at 3 inches (up from 2.25” in 2025).
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play64/3/3
Architect(s):Greg Norman (2010).
Defending Champion (event):Brian Harman (-9).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:62; Trey Mullinax, Round 3, 2018.
72 Hole Tournament Record:268; Akshay Bhatia & Denny McCarthy (2024); Corey Conners (2019).
Fact of the Week:The event has been the week before the Masters since 2019.
Fact of the Week II:The four Par-5 holes rank, as a group, one of the hardest quartets on TOUR.
Fact of the Week III:The last two winners have been left-handed wind specialists.

Notes:

  • Field of 132.
  • No significant course changes for 2026.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • $9.8 million – $1.764 million – 500 FedExCup points.
  • For those not already qualified for Augusta National next week, the only way to book a tee time is to win.

Notables

  • The last three champions owned the outright lead after 18 holes.
  • The last six winners T4 or BETTER in Par-4 Scoring.
  • TPC San Antonio has played under par just twice in 16 previous events.
  • The ryegrass/fescue fairways average 25 to 30 yards in the landing area.
  • Poa Trivialis overseeded greens average 6,400 square feet and will not run more than 11.5 feet on the Stimpmeter (wind).
  • The course tips at 7,438 yards for the fifth consecutive season.
  • The Official World Golf Ranking is represented by 15 of the top 50 players, led by No. 4 Tommy Fleetwood, the highest-ranked player in the field this week.

Stat of the Week: Putting: Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage

The previous 10 champions have all ranked T10 or better in this category. Once GIR are found, it’s time to cash in! Birdies are NOT plentiful here; Take advantage of the opportunities presented.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarría
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young
Valspar ChampionshipMatt Fitzpatrick
Texas Children’s Houston OpenGary Woodland

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first-time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Valero Texas Open

Italics – not entered this week;

YearWinnerNotes
2025Brian Harman (-9)Shot 72-75 on the weekend and still defeated Ryan Gerard by THREE shots. Rough weather muted scoring.
2024Akshay Bhatia (-20)Knocked off Denny McCarthy in a playoff. Both matched the tournament scoring record and were NINE SHOTS CLEAR of third place.
2023Corey Conners (-15)Defeated Sam Stevens by one shot to become the first two-time winner at The Oaks Course.
2022J.J. Spaun (-13)Won by two shots to earn his first PGA TOUR victory.
2021Jordan Spieth (-18)Circled 24 birdies and won by two.
2019Corey Conners (-20)Monday Qualifier won for the first time on the PGA TOUR.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaWD0
Valspar ChampionshipJacob BridgemanT14161,525
Houston OpenChris GotterupT6322,987

Last WEEK – Texas Children’s Houston Open

There’s no reason to save Chris Gotterup.

With two victories already, he won’t be playing many courses, if any, from this point forward, where he can black out and just pump driver all day.

He can this week!

THE CHOICE: Chris Gotterup – T6

Others to consider:

Any of the European ball-strikers who were in it last week at Valspar.

Nicolai Hojgaard (2nd), Jake Knapp (T6), Sam Burns (T21), Wyndham Clark (MC)

I guess MY SECOND GUESS was better than my first! Too bad Gotterup didn’t WD!

Sigh.

Congrats to the Woodland Mafia on their incredible win. Is it dusty in here???

THIS Week – Valero Texas Open

What a mess.

WHERE IS COREY CONNERS WHEN YOU NEED HIM?????

Imagine winning this event twice since 2019, yet not playing!

The last two winners are left-handed players, right?

Let’s make it three in a row!

THE CHOICE: Sudarshan Yellamaraju

He wasn’t bothered by Pete Dye’s mind games against the deepest field in golf at TPC Sawgrass (T5).

A bit of length, 7,475 yards, last week in Houston didn’t slow him down (T6).

I am not sure he cares about what’s at stake this week with a win.

Hot golf is hot golf, and I’m riding the hottest player in the field.

I will save the top players for rainier days.

Others to consider:

Michael Thorbjornsen, Sepp Straka, Johnny Keefer, Denny McCarthy

Horses for Courses

Elder statesmen Charley Hoffman and Matt Kuchar are the top money winners entered.

Jordan Spieth owns four top-10s from eight starts.

Andrew Novak has a pair of top-10 paydays from the last three.

Here are the top finishers from the last three years:

202520242023
Brian Harman (-9)Akshay Bhatia (-20)Corey Conners (-15)
wins by 3 (Gerard)wins PLAYOFF (McCarthy)wins by 1 (Stevens)
Par 72 – 7,438 ydsPar 72 – 7,438 ydsPar 72 – 7,438 yds
   
02 Ryan Gerard -6P2 Denny McCarthy -20 02 Sam Stevens -14
T3 Maverick McNealy -504 Russell Henley -10T3 Matt Kuchar -13
T3 Andrew NovakT5 Adam Schenk -9T3 Sam Ryder -13
T5 Bud Cauley -4T5 Brendon Todd05 Patrick Rodgers -11
T5 Patrick FishburnT7 Hideki Matsuyama -8T6 Lee Hodges -10
T5 Thorbjorn OlesenT7 Tommy Fleetwood09 Andrew Novak -9
T5 Ryo HisatsuneT10 Jordan Spieth -6T10 Chris Kirk -8
T5 Chad RameyT10 Mac MeissnerT10 Rickie Fowler
T5 Tom HogeT14 Ludvig Aberg -5T15 Hideki Matsuyama -7
T12 Jordan Spieth -3T14 Andrew PutnamT15 Nick Taylor
T12 Alejandro TostiT14 Sam StevensT15 Alex Noren
T12 Keith MitchellT14 Alex NorenT15 SH Kim
T12 Sami ValimakiT14 Keith MitchellT22 JJ Spaun -6
T18 Doug Ghim -2T14 SH KimT22 Sepp Straka
T18 Chandler PhillipsT14 T B OT22 Peter Malnati
T18 Matt KucharT14 Rico HoeyT22 Charley Hoffman
T18 Emiliano GrilloT25 Brian Harman -4 
T18 Corey ConnersT25 Max Homa 
T18 Denny McCarthyT25 Lucas Glover 
T26 Matt Wallace -1T25 Corey Conners 
T26 Eric ColeT25 Mark Hubbard 
T26 JT Poston T25 Justin Lower 
T26 Harry Hall  

Texas Children’s Houston Open Betting Angles

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Texas Children’s Houston Open

Memorial Park Golf Course

Houston, Texas

*Rob Bolton joins me LIVE every Wednesday at 4 pm at TheZoneBloomington.com

PGATOUR.com Links

Odds Outlook

DraftKings Markets

Expert Picks

Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings

Rob Bolton’s Sleepers

Rob Bolton’s Fantasy Insider

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseMemorial Park
Yards (per official scorecard):7,475
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:Overseeded Poa Trivialis; 7,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass at 1.25”
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play24/2/4
Architect(s):John Bredemus (1936); Tom Doak (2019).
Defending Champion (event):Min Woo Lee (-20).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:62 Gary Woodland Rd 4 2025 62 Sami Valimaki Rd 4 2025 62 Scottie Scheffler Rd 2 2025 62 Tony Finau Rd 2 2024 62 Tony Finau Rd 2 2022 62 Scottie Scheffler Rd 2 2021 63 Mackenzie Hughes 2020
72 Hole Tournament Record:260; Min Woo Lee.
Fact of the Week:The event moved back to March for the 2024 event.
Fact of the Week II:Torrey Pines and Rio Grande are the only two longer courses used on TOUR so far in 2026.

Notes:

  • Field of 135.
  • No significant course changes for 2026.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • $9.9 million – $1.782 million – 500 FedExCup points.
  • Must be in the top 50 OWGR after this week to qualify for the Masters.
  • Must WIN this week or next at Valero to qualify for the Masters if the OWGR is out of reach.

Stat of the Week: SG: Putting

All five winners ranked in the top five on the Poa Trivialis overseeded greens.

Notables

  • For the second week in a row, the host course features five Par-3 holes and overseeded Poa Trivialis putting surfaces.
  • All five champions ranked T12 or better in Par-3 Scoring.
  • The Par-70 also features three Par-5 holes, one of the toughest trios on TOUR.
  • The historic Houston Open, established in 1946, has had many homes, but Memorial Park is the only data in use this week.
  • The overseeded fairways average 30 to 40 yards in the landing area, accounting for the winds that constantly blow in this part of the world.
  • Poa Trivialis overseeded greens average 7,000 square feet and will not run more than 11.5 feet on the Stimpmeter (wind). The nuanced greens are the defense of this Tom Doak (2019) restoration.
  • Hole No. 16 is using a new tee box for 2025 and has added 40 yards to the scorecard. There are no significant changes for 2026.
  • This is the third consecutive year with the overseeded rough cut to 1.25 inches.
  • The range of winners is 26 to 36 years old.
  • Lee became the third first-time winner in five events at Memorial Park.
  • The Official World Golf Ranking is represented by 20 of the top 50 players, highlighted by No. 10 Chris Gotterup, the only two-time winner on TOUR this season.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarría
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young
Valspar ChampionshipMatt Fitzpatrick

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first-time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Texas Children’s Houston Open

Italics – not entered this week;

YearWinnerNotes
2025Min Woo Lee (-20)Held off Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland by one shot to win for the first time on the PGA TOUR.
2024Stephan Jaeger (-12)Held off five players, including Scheffler and Finau, to win by a shot for his first victory on TOUR.
2022Tony Finau (-16)Set the tournament scoring record and won by four shots, also a record. Final November event (2023 season).
2021Jason Korkak (-10)Won by two shots as Scheffler couldn’t close the 54-hole lead.
2020Carlos Ortiz (-13)Held off Hideki Matsuyama (not entered) and Dusitn Johnson (ineligible) to win for the first time on TOUR.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaWD0
Valspar ChampionshipJacob BridgemanT14161,525

Last WEEK – Valspar Championship

MY CHOICE: Jacob Bridgeman – T14

Steady, yet unspectacular. Never raised to the level of contender. Congrats to Fitzy on his excellent bounce-back after a tough finish at THE PLAYERS. I didn’t see that coming.

THIS Week – Texas Children’s Houston Open

There’s no reason to save Chris Gotterup.

With two victories already, he won’t be playing many courses, if any, from this point forward where he can black out and just pump driver all day.

He can this week!

THE CHOICE: Chris Gotterup

Others to consider:

Any of the European ball-strikers who were in it last week at Valspar.

Nicolai Hojgaard, Jake Knapp, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark

Course Horses at Memorial Park

2025 Birdies2024 Birdies
26 Min Woo Lee22 Scottie Schefffler
23 Taylor Pendrith22 Alejandro Tosti
23 Alejandro Tosti21 Nick Dunlap
23 Gary Woodland20 Matti Schmid
22 Davis Thompson20 Gary Woodland
22 Sami Valimaki19 Tony Fianu
21 Jake Knapp19 Tom Hoge
21 Scottie Scheffler19 Billy Horschel
 19 Stephan Jaeger
20252024
Min Woo Lee (-20)Stephan Jaeger (-12)
wins by 1 (Scheffler, Woodland)wins by 1 (Scheffler, 4 others)
Par 70 – 7,475 ydsPar 70 – 7,435 yds
154 players144 players
  
T2 Gary WoodlandT2 Tony Finau
04 Sami Valimaki -17T2 Taylor Moore
T5 Wyndham Clark –15T2 Alejandro Tosti
T5 Taylor PendrithT7 Billy Horschel -10
T5 Alejandro TostiT7 Aaron Rai
09 Ryan Gerard -14T7 Max Greyserman
10 Mackenzie Hughes -13T11 Nick Dunlap -9
T11 Lee Hodges -12T14 Mackenzie Hughes -8
T11 Rico HoeyT14 Tom Hoge
T11 Stephan JaegerT14 Davis Riley
T11 Isaiah SalindaT17 Chad Ramey -7
T15 Ryan Fox -11T21 Gary Woodland -6
T15 Eric ColeT21 Cam Davis
T18 Chris Gotterup -10T21 Davis Thompson
T18 Sam StevensT21 Matti Schmid
T18 Harry HallT21 Joe Highsmith
T18 Harris EnglishT28 Sahith Theegala -5
T18 Keith MitchellT28 Harry Hall
T18 Kevin Yu 
T18 Ben Griffin 

Valspar Championship Betting Angles

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Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort

Copperhead Course

Palm Harbor, Florida

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Odds Outlook

DraftKings Markets

Expert Picks

Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings

Rob Bolton’s Sleepers

Rob Bolton’s Fantasy Insider

Thoughts on Valspar

It’s difficult. Really difficult.

The flat tracks of PGA National, Bay Hill, and TPC Sawgrass have been replaced with oak-lined rolling hills and significant elevation changes.

The last four winners have all ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting and top 15 Greens in Regulation.

Par is a decent score again this week. Exactly five players have posted 10-under or better over the last three events.

Five.

This is not a hit-and-giggle or walk in the park after THE PLAYERS Championship. The cut during the last three editions was 2-over, even, and 1-over.

Survive and advance and enjoy the third-hardest three-hole closing stretch on TOUR, “The Snake Pit”.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseCopperhead Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,352.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa Trivialis overseed; TifEagle Bermuda; 5,822 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass 3.75 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play74/8/9.
Architect(s):Larry Packard (1971).
Defending Champion (event):Viktor Hovland (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:61; Matt NeSmith (Round 2, 2022) & Padraig Harrington (Round 1, 2012). Neither player is in the field this week.
Tournament Scoring Record267 (-17); Sam Burns (not entered), 2022.
Fact of the Week:Since moving to March on the schedule in 2007, the winning margin has been two or fewer shots in every year save 2022.
Fact of the Week II:The course has five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes.

Notes:

  • Field of 135.
  • No significant course changes for 2026.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • $9.1 million – $1.638 million – 500 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Valspar Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Viktor Hovland (-11)Broke a three-way tie on 7-under after 54 holes with a final round 67 to defeat Justin Thomas by a shot.
2024Peter Malnati (-12)Shot a final round 67 to win for the second time on TOUR.
2023Taylor Moore (-10)The first of three consecutive champions to post 67 in the final round. Defeated Adam Schenk by one shot.
2022Sam Burns (-17)Defeated Davis Riley in a playoff to successfully defend his title. His tournament scoring record was one of many broken in PERFECT, windless weather.
2021Sam Burns (-17)The event finished in May and Burns won on TOUR for the first time.
2019Paul Casey (-8)The Englishman became the last winner in single digits.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

LAST WEEK – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa – WD

I have no words.

Missing the cut is one thing. Quitting after one hole is another. Glad to see the online sportsbooks refund folks’ money. That was the right thing to do.

As for One and Done, if you tee it, you played. It sucks, but it’s the right call.

Nobody said you didn’t need a little luck in life, but I feel for the McIlroy/Morikawa contingent the last two weeks. Go buy a lottery ticket or two and see if Karma has returned.

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaWD0

THIS WEEK – Valspar Championship

Xander Schauffele will be on my short list of TWO for the U.S. Open. Brooks Koepka is the defending champion at Shinnecock Hills.

Justin Thomas makes sense this week, but I am not taking my chances on a guy who has just returned from back surgery.

Corey Conners has two wins at Valero, so he stays in the stable.

The Hojgaards have never made a cut here.

Jordan Spieth – Colonial or Augusta.

MY CHOICE: Jacob Bridgeman

Proven in Florida, proven in California.

He played from the final group in 2025 and secured third.

His form is T18 or better in every event this year.

LFG.

Others to consider

Viktor Hovland, Sahith Theegala, Lucas Glover, Billy Horschel, Ryo Hisatsune

Recent Form at Valspar

202520242023
Viktor Hovland (-11)Peter Malnati (-12)Taylor Moore (-10)
wins by 1 (JT)wins by 2 (Cam Young)wins by 1 (Schenk)
Par 71 – 7,352 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 yds
156 players156 players144 players
   
02 Justin Thomas -10T3 Chancler Phillips -902 Adam Schenk -9
03 Jacob Bridgeman -9T3 Mackenzie HughesT3 Jordan Spieth -8
T4 Bud Cauley -8T5 Adam Hadwin -8T7 Webb Simpson -4
T4 Ryo HisatsuneT5 Xander SchauffeleT7 Matt Wallace
T4 Billy HorschelT9 C Bezuidenhout -7T10 Justin Thomas -3
07 Davis Riley -711 Lucas Glover -6T10 Nick Taylor
T8 Seamus Power -6T12 Billy Horschel -5T10 Patton Kizzire
T8 Lucas GloverT12 Taylor MooreT10 Zac Blair
T8 Corey ConnersT12 Kevin RoyT19 Davis Riley -1
T12 Eric Cole -5T17 Matt Wallace -4T19 Denny McCarthy
T12 Xander SchauffeleT17 Akshay BhatiaT27 Chad Ramey E
T12 Ricky CastilloT17 Ben GriffinT27 Alex Smalley
T16 Matt McCarty -4T17 Keith MitchellT27 Kevin Streelman
T22 R N P -3T17 Matti SchmidT27 Stephan Jaeger
T22 Emiliano GrilloT17 Andrew NovakT27 Andrew Novak
T22 Joe HighsmithT26 Seamus Power -3 
T22 Jeremy PaulT26 Lee Hodges 
 T26 Kevin Streelman 

THE PLAYERS Championship Betting Angles

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THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass

Stadium Course

Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

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Thoughts on The Chalk:

Schefffler, fade at your own peril. He will figure it out. I am seriously considering changing my Expert’s Picks lineup and will make a last-minute decision about donning his as my Captain.

McIlroy arrived on Wednesday. In a field this deep and on a track this demanding, at BEST, he will be on my bench.

Fleetwood’s 70.63 scoring average here is top five.

Morikawa fits to a T. There’s a reason EVERYONE is on him this week. Sometimes EVERYONE is right.

Si Woo Kim is on fire and a previous winner. Leads the TOUR in Ball-Striking.

Ludvig Aberg is brewing.

Bhatia will attempt to join Scheffler as the only recent player to win at Bay Hill and follow up with a victory at TPC Sawgrass.

I can’t get away from Min Woo Lee and Rickie Fowler

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseTPC Sawgrass
Yards (per official scorecard):7,352
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 5,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:13-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass was mowed Sunday at 4.5 inches. #THICC
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play94/18/17
Architect(s):Pete Dye (1980; 2016).
Defending Champion (event):Rory McIlroy (-12)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:McIlroy (2019, 2025); Scheffler (2024, 2022).
Youngest Winner:Si Woo Kim, 17.
Oldest Winner:Fred Fuk, 48.
Course Record:62; Justin Thomas (Round 2, 2025); Tom Hoge (Round 3, 2023).
Tournament Scoring Record264; Greg Norman (-24, 1994).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post 2015 switch to TifEagle):268; Scottie Scheffler (-20, 2024).
Fact of the Week:7.4 is the average attempts for winners.
Fact of the Week II:Justin Thomas made 11 birdies to tie the course record last year.

Notes:

  • Field of 123.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • The deepest field in golf, no amateurs.
  • $25 million – $4.5 million – 750 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – THE PLAYERS Championship

Italics – not entered this week; March winners only.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Rory McIlroy (-12)Defeated J.J. Spaun in a three-hole aggregate playoff to win for the second time.
2024Scottie Scheffler (-20)Becomes the first player EVER to defend the title.
2023Scottie Scheffler (-17)Won by five shots in his third attempt.
2022Cameron Smith (-14)Needed a Monay finish and closed with 66 to come back from two shots and win.
2021Justin Thomas (-14)Posted 64-68, tying the lowest 36-hole aggregate to win by a shot.
2019Rory McIlroy (-13)Chased down Jon Rahm on Sunday to win the first event in the return to March.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

LAST WEEK – Arnold Palmer Invitational

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler – T24

Oh, Daniel Berger was THIS week, my bad.

Also, how f*cking stupid am I? Don’t answer that…

Why not wait for Scheffler to get hot, THEN play him?

I’m so bad at this.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000

THIS WEEK – THE PLAYERS

It’s the biggest prize purse of the season.

Time to get it right.

The time for dad-to-be Collin Morikawa is now.

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa

Others to consider

Si Woo Kim, Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry

Longshots

Rickie Fowler, Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott, Corey Conners

Horses for Courses

PlayersTopScrNotes
(cuts made/starts)10Avg 
    
Scottie Scheffler (5/6)269.89T20-WIN-WIN last 3
Rory McIlroy (10/16)571.152 wins in last six visits
Tommy Fleetwood (8/9)270.63No top 10 in 6 years
Justin Rose (12/21)371.81MC-MC-T6 L3Y
Collin Morikawa (5/6)171.113 straight; T10 ’25 best w/ 77
    
Chris Gotterup (0/1)073.00MC 73-73
Russell Henley (7/13)071.67T30 in 3 of last 4; T13 best
Robert MacIntyre (1/3)172.13Solo 9th ’25; all 4 rds 72 >
Xander Schauffele (5/8)271.3272-T2-T19 L3Y
JJ Spaun (3/7)172.13P2 ’25 – T64 ’24
    
Ben Griffin (1/3)071.63T35 2023
Hideki Matsuyama (8/11)470.50MC-T6-5th L3Y; T23 worst
Sepp Straka (5/6)171.11T14-T16-T65-T9 last 4
Justin Thomas (10/11)270.862021 winner; T33 best since
Harris English (7/12)072.80T30-T19 L2Y; 7 –> MC before
Alex Noren (4/7)171.27T19-MC-T26; T10 debut best
Viktor Hovland (4/6)271.25MC-T62-T3-T9-MC
Keegan Bradley (10/15)271.65T20-MC-MC-5TH L4Y
Jacob Bridgeman  First Appearance
Cameron Young (3/4)072.43Only 2 rounds in the 60s; T51 best
Matt Fitzpatrick (5/10)271.38MC-5TH-MC-MC-T9 L5
Ludvig Aberg (1/2)170.00MC-8TH
Maverick McNealy (3/5)172.50MC-T9-T60-T46-MC; 3 of 16 60s
Ryan Gerard (1/1)072.00Sat T14 after 54 holes before 78 Sunday (T42)
Si Woo Kim (9/10)370.672017 winner at 21; T6 2024; never MC here
Sam Burns (4/6)072.132 of 16 rds in 60s; T26 best
Kurt Kitayama (2/3)071.40T33-T19-MC
Patrick Cantlay (6/9)071.73T12-T68-T19; 2 of his best L3Y
Shane Lowry (8/11)171.09T20-T19-T35-T13-8th last five
Min Woo Lee (3/3)170.83T20-T54-T6; Final Group 2023
Jason Day (10/14)470.862016 winner; T35-T19
PlayersTopScrTPC Sawgrass Notes/Best Performances
(cuts made/starts)10Avg 
Corey Conners (6/7)270.55T6-T13-mc-T26-7th
Akshay Bhatia (1/2)170.33T3-MC
Matt McCarty (1/1)071.003 rounds of 70 or better in tough conditions
Ryan Fox (2/3)071.20T20-mc-T27
Andrew Novak (0/3)074.836 of 7 rounds 74 or worse
Jake Knapp (2/2)070.75T12-T45; All 8 rounds 73 or better
Sam Stevens (0/2)073.7574-72; 73-76
Pierceson Coody  First Appearance
Michael Kim (1/5)074.42MC last four
Michael Thorbjornsen  First Appearance
Adam Scott (19/24)471.412004 winner; T45 best in last 5
Brian Harman  (10/14)471.68T2 2024; T3 2021
Nicolai Hojgaard (0/2) 73.7573-73; 73-76
Nick Taylor (6/9)072.04T26 best in last 5
Harry Hall (0/2)  75-70; 77-74
Daniel Berger (8/9)271.278 straight; T20 2025
Taylor Pendrith (3/4)072.21T13 2022 debut best
Ryo Hisatsune (0-2) 72.5072-74; 70-74
JT Poston (5/7)071.80T33-T45 L2Y; T22 2019 debut best
Rickie Fowler (9/15)272.092015 winner; T71-T68-T13 L3Y
Sungjae Im (6/7)171.36T61-T31-T6-T55-T17
    
PlayersTopScr Notes/Best Performances
 10Avg 
Aaron Rai (3/3)070.58T14-T35-T19
C Bezuidenhout (3/4)070.79MC-T13-T13-T41
Brian Campbell (0/1)  74-71
Ricky Castillo (0/1)  70-74
Bud Cauley (2/5)172.14T6 2025 first visit since 2019
Wyndham Clark (2/6)171.15WD-T2-T27-MC-MC-DQ
Eric Cole (1/3)072.13MC-MC-T27
Lucas Glover (5/6)071.054 straight; T11 2024 best
Cam Davis (1/5)174.50T6 2023
Zecheng Dou  First Appearance
 TopScr 
Players10Avg 
Nico Echavarria (0/3) 73.8370 or worse in 6 rounds
AJ Ewart  First Appearance
Tony Finau (5/10)072.08T19 2023 best
Steven Fisk  First Appearance
Emiliano Grillo (5/9)072.3211th 2017
Garrick Higgo (1/3)072.29WD-T44-MC
Joe Highsmith (1/1)071.003 rounds of 72 or better
Lee Hodges (2/3)073.20T35-MC-T70 L3Y
Rico Hoey (1/1)071.50T33 debut
Tom Hoge (7/7)270.70T3-T54-T3; 7 straight
Rasmus Hojgaard (0/1)076.0072-80 MC
Max Homa (3/5)171.63MC-T64-T6-T13-MC
Mark Hubbard (3/5)072.36MC-T31-T35-MC-MC
Mackenzie Hughes (4/7)072.10MC 4 of the last 5 (T26)
Stephan Jaeger (2/4)072.08T20-MC-T44-MC
Takumi Kanaya  First Appearance
SH Kim (0/2) 74.5074-71; 77-76
Chris Kirk (10/14)071.66T12 2017 best; T42-T26 L2
Brooks Koepka (4/6)071.70First Appearance since 2022 MC
Haotong Li (0/2)  First Appearance since 2019 MC
Denny McCarthy (6/6)071.21T14-T35-T13 L3Y
Max McGreevey (1/2)073.67T20-MC; 69-89 debut
Mac Meissner (1/1)072.00T42 2025
Keith Mitchell (5/6)072.04T13 2022  
Taylor Moore (3/4)071.79T33-T31-T35-MC
William Mouw  First Appearance
Thorbjorn Olesen (1/2)072.17T41 2019 last, best
Matthieu Pavon (1/2)073.00T54-MC
Marco Penge  First Appearance
Chandler Philips (1/1)073.50T61 opened with 68
Aldrich Potgieter (0/1)  74-71
Andrew Putnam (1/6)073.2153rd 2024
Chad Ramey (1/3)072.38MC-MC-T27; FRL 2023
Kristoffer Reitan  First Appearance
Davis Riley (1/3)072.88T38-MC-MC
Patrick Rodgers (2/9)073.43MC last four
Kevin Roy (0/1) 73.5077-70 2025
Adam Schenk (1/5)072.33T19 2024
Matti Schmid (1/2)071.00MC-T26
Alex Smalley (2/3)071.90T14-MC-T65
Jordan Smith  First Appearance
Austin Smotherman (1/1)071.00T35 2023
Jordan Spieth (5/11)171.91T4 2014 debut; 59th-MC-T19 L3Y
Sahith Theegala (3/4)172.57T52-T9-74-MC
Davis Thompson (2/3)171.80T10-MC-T68
Sami Valimaki (2/2)072.88T69-T54
Erik van Rooyen (1/3)071.50T13 2022
Jhonattan Vegas (7/11)272.14T3 2019; T7 2012; 60th best last 4
Karl Vilips075.0072-78 MC 2025
Danny Walker (1/1)169.7570-66-70 last 54 for T6 debut
Vince Whaley (0/1) 72.5073-72
Gary Woodland (6/13)072.84T54 best in last 5 years
Sudarshan Yellamaraju  First Appearance
Keivn Yu (0/2) 73.7573 is best

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Angles

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Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Orlando, Florida

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NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseBay Hill Club & Lodge
Yards (per official scorecard):7,466
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:13-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass at FOUR inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play84/8/9
Architect(s):Dick Wilson (1961); Arnold Palmer (2009; 2016).
Defending Champion (event):Russell Henley (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Scheffler (2024, 2022).
Course Record:62; Adam Scott (2014, Bentgrass greens) is the only player to post this total since 1984.
72 Hole Tournament Record (post 2016 switch to TifEagle):270; Rory McIlroy (-18, 2018).
Fact of the Week:The last 10 winners have produced seven champions 30 or younger.
Fact of the Week II:The last five champions are from the USA.

Hot weather will make the ball go far this week, but Bay Hill has played over par for the last NINE seasons, regardless of the composition of the field.

The TifEagle Bermuda greens, which have not been overseeded, will be the best and fastest on TOUR yet. Big greens are surrounded by big penalty areas, so don’t be surprised to see balls, especially from the rough, finding the safest tiers on the putting surfaces. Lag putting will be a recipe for success this week.

Notes:

  • Field of 72.
  • The second of three Legacy Signature Events, the API cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 50 and ties play the weekend.
  • The OWGR is represented by 41 of the top 50, BUT 28 of the top 30.
  • $20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Russell Henley (-11)Followed T4 in 2024 with his fifth win on TOUR. Beat Morikawa by a shot in the final group.
2024Scottie Scheffler (-15)Second title in three years.  Won by five shots.
2023Kurt Kitayama (-9)First debut winner since 1990.
2022Scottie Scheffler (-5)One of four players broke par in the final round. Course played No. 1 most difficult on TOUR in 2022.
2021Bryson DeChambeau (-11)First of five straight USA-USA-USA winners.

Notables

  • Adam Scott is the only player since 1985 to post 62 (2014) and is one of four to share the course record.
  • Tiger Woods (not entered) has won this event eight times, the most in history. Scheffler is the only multiple winner in the 2026 field.
  • The fairways are 30 yards wide, two yards wider on average than last week at PGA National and overseeded.
  • None of the Par-5 holes plays longer than 590 yards.
  • Since 2016, only Scheffler in 2024 ranked OUTSIDE the top SIX in Par-3 scoring. All four Par-3 holes extend 199 yards or longer.
  • The last seven winners have ranked in the top 10 in Greens in Regulation.
  • After adding TifEagle greens for 2016, nine of 10 winners have ranked in the top 15 in SG: Putting, and all were T21 or better. No weaknesses allowed in the bag this week!

LAST WEEK – Cognizant Classic

MY CHOICE: Daniel Berger – T32

Opening with 67, I was encouraged. After two middle rounds of 71-71, I was DISCOURAGED.

After watching Lowry capitulate in the final three holes with a three-shot lead, T32 is easier to stomach than losing $1 million in 30 minutes.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816

THIS WEEK – Arnold Palmer Invitational

The third of eight Signature Events precedes the biggest payday in golf, THE PLAYERS Championship next week in Ponte Vedra Beach. This week and next will require a podium finish or victory to absorb the dog days of summer.

These are the events to release the hounds and shoot your shot with the biggest and the baddest available. Of the two events spread over the next two weeks, Bay Hill is the more “predictable” of the bunch. TPC Sawgrass, minus the recent McIlroy/Scheffler domination, has produced a cadre of winners, which appeared to be drawn out of a hat.

Also, there is a cut in both events, which SHOULD NOT bother the world’s best, but here we are.

Remember, LIV players, if that is your angle, return for the Masters, PGA Championship, and Open Championship.

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler

Time to kick it into gear for the No. 1 player in the world.

No more farting around on Thursday.

No more Poa annua to piss him off.

The familiarity of Bermuda and two previous victories on a track he loves (nothing worse than T15 in five starts) is the recipe I am looking for this week.

I would not talk you out of playing McIlroy, but this comes down to preference, and I will ride the steadier of the two on a course where hazards do affect play.

I will also remind you that the Truist Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club in May. McIlroy has won that event, a Signature Event, approximately 49,390 times. See you in May, Rors!

Others to consider

Jake Knapp, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood

Longshots

Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Ryan Fox

Horses for Courses

PlayersTopTopScrBay Hill HFC Finishes/Notes
(cuts made/starts)1025Avg 
     
Scottie Scheffler (5/5)3570.60T15 is his worst payday; Only 2x winner playing.
Rory McIlroy (11/11)61070.508 rounds of 66 or better; 2018 winner.
Tommy Fleetwood (7/9)3571.91T11 2025; T3 2019
Justin Rose (13/20)6971.70T8 2025 followed 4 -> MC
Collin Morikawa (3/5)2272.132nd 2025 after 2-> MC; T9 2020
     
Chris Gotterup   First Appearance
Russell Henley (6/9)2371.872025 winner followed T4; 5 –>
Robert MacIntyre (2/2)0171.75T11, T36 L2Y
Xander Schauffele (4/4)0272.63Best payday T24 2020
JJ Spaun (4/5)0073.11T31 2025 best
     
Ben Griffin (2/2)0172.13T45-T14 L2Y
Hideki Matsuyama (10/11)1671.86Only top 10 2016 (T6); T22-T12 L2Y
Sepp Straka (2/6)1173.69T5 2025 with 1st Rd  77!!!
Justin Thomas (4/4)0271.56T12 2024 best; T36 2025
Harris English (9/13)2572.306–> busted 2025; T2 2023, T9 2020
Alex Noren (4/5)0072.72T36 best; First visit since 2023 (T61)
Viktor Hovland (6/7)2272.356–> busted 2025; T10 2023, T2 2022
Keegan Bradley (13/14)5671.50T11 or better 4 of last 5; cashed 13 straight
Jacob Bridgeman (1/1)0171.25Closed 69-68 for T15 on debut 2025
Cameron Young (3/4)1272.50T10 2023; 82-71 MC 2025
Matt Fitzpatrick (8/11)4771.71T27 worst; 2nd 2019 first of 4 straight T10
Ludvig Aberg (3/3)0371.83T22-T25-T24 (a) L3Y
Maverick McNealy (3/5)0073.7573-80 MC 2025; T46 (a) 2016 best
Ryan Gerard   First Appearance
Si Woo Kim (6/10)0173.19T19 2025 best; 4–>
Sam Burns (6/8)1172.93T9 2022; T48, T30 L2Y
Kurt Kitayama (1/2)1171.67MC-WIN; Nobody defends well first time anywhere
Patrick Cantlay (3/3)1171.67T31, T36, and T4 L3Y
Shane Lowry (3/7)2272.207th 2025, 3rd 2024; AWFUL before!
Min Woo Lee (1/4)0075.3073 or WORSE in 9 of 10 rounds
Jason Day (10/12)3771.302016 winner; T8 2025, T10 2023
PlayersTopTopScrBay Hill HFC Finishes/Notes
(cuts made/starts)1025Avg 
Corey Conners (5/7)2571.463rd ’25, 3rd ’21; T21 > last 5
Akshay Bhatia (0/1)   79-73 MC
Matt McCarty   First Appearance
Ryan Fox (1/1)0171.0071-67 to close T14
Andrew Novak (1/1)0072.50T34 debut 2025 included 65 Saturday
Jake Knapp (1/1)0075.00T57 2025 debut
Sam Stevens (1/1)0073.00T40 2025 debut
Pierceson Coody (1/1)0171.00T14 2023 debut; 66 Saturday
Michael Kim (2/3)1271.204th 2025; T17 2017 (a)
Michael Thorbjornsen   First Appearance
Adam Scott (11/15)2471.813rd 2014; T36-MC last 2
Brian Harman  (6/12)0472.58T40-T12 L2Y; T12 best
Nicolai Hojgaard (0/2)0074.003 of 4 rounds > 71
Nick Taylor (5/8)0172.69T31-T12 last 2 best 2
Harry Hall   First Appearance
Daniel Berger (2/3)0271.20T15 2025; T13 2015
Taylor Pendrith (1/3)0074.75T42 2022 debut best
Ryo Hisatsune   First Appearance
JT Poston (3/5)0074.38T50-T55 last 2 best 2
Rickie Fowler (12/13)1472.12Only top 10 2013; T31 best in last 4
Sungjae Im (7/7)2771.46T21 or better in all 7; 2 podiums

The Genesis Invitational Betting Angles

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Tiger’s tournament is the second of eight Signature Events in 2026. The Riviera Country Club returns to host an elite field of 72 players.

2024 champion at The Riviera Country Club: Hideki Matsuyama (TheGenesisInvitational on X)

The Genesis Invitational

The Riviera Country Club

Pacific Palisades, California

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NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseThe Riviera Country Club
Yards (per official scorecard):7,383.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa annua; 7,500 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:13 feet plus.
Rough:Kikuyu grass at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play58/0/0.
Architect(s):George C. Thomas (1926).
Defending Champion (event):Ludvig Aberg (Torrey Pines South)
Defending Champion (course):Hideki Matsuyama (2024).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Adam Scott (2020; 2005 unofficial – weather).
Course Record (last):61; Ted Tryba (1999).
72 Hole Tournament Record:264; Lanny Watkins (1985).
Fact of the Week:The Genesis Invitational was held at Torrey Pines South in 2025. Please be aware.
Fact of the Week II:Since 2008, only TWO players younger than 30 have won this event (Rahm, Niemann).

Notes:

  • Field of 72.
  • Second of eight Signature Events.
  • The OWGR is represented by 27 of the top 30.
  • $20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – The Genesis Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Ludvig Aberg (-12)Hosted at the venerable Torrey Pines South, the Swede held off California native Maverick McNealy by a shot to win for the second time on TOUR.
2024Hideki MatsuyamaClosed with 62, the lowest round for a winner, to overcome a six-shot deficit. Won by three strokes.
2023Jon Rahm (-17)Defeated 2021 winner Max Homa by two shots.
2022Joaquin Niemann     (-19)Became just the fourth wire-to-wire winner in event history.
2021Max Homa (-12)Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2020Adam Scott (-11)Held off Matt Kuchar and two others by two shots.
2019J.B. Holmes (-14)Justin Thomas was 18-under with 17 holes to go. He finished second on 13-under.
2018Bubba Watson (-12)Won for the third time holding off Tony Finau by two shots.

Angles:

Masters champions have won this event 12 times since the turn of the century.

The last nine winners needed four or more starts before raising the trophy.

The last player to win on debut was Adam Scott in 2005. The victory was unofficial as the event, canceled due to weather, only could play 36 holes.

The trio of Par-5 holes ranked as some of the friendliest on TOUR.

The Par-4 holes are not, including the very famous No. 10.

With difficult fairways to find off the tee, using the 7,500 square feet to land approaches is critical.

Bunkers this week are penal. Getting it close is rare. Getting it up and down is a struggle.

The Riviera Country Club is nestled in the Santa Monica Canyon. The layout provides only 150 feet of elevation change. Without putting surfaces exposed to the coastline, the Stimpmeter will be pushing 13 or better, the fastest speed on TOUR yet in 2026.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event, plus a backup selection if your original choice does not tee off.

1 use per year.

Sign up here

LAST WEEK – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

MY CHOICE: Patrick Cantlay

After opening with 66, I thought I was on my way! His 71-69 sandwich saw him fall off the pace before a Sunday 65 cashed T14.

I would guess he wins THIS week!

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500

THIS WEEK – The Genesis Invitational

The power players will be happy to have room to swing the driver early and often at the Par-71, 7,383-yard layout.

Experience is a huge factor this week, and with a loaded field there are plenty of choices.

I would start in Southern California if you are chasing. Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele have better records at other venues and events, but both have been close here. Max Homa and Tony Finau make excellent long-shot contenders, but I will remind you there is a cut this week (Top 50 and anyone 10 shots off the lead) after two rounds.

If you are going to play Scheffler or McIlroy, I won’t stop you. I will point out that there are six other Signature Events, four major championships, and a pair of FedExCup Playoff events to plan for accordingly.

I’m not a fan of playing guys of that magnitude on tracks where they have never won before. The list of winners here suggests those who have had results at Augusta National, and that covers both No. 1 and No. 2. The rumblings about Scheffler not enjoying his time on Poa annua have been noted. McIlroy and Quail Hollow are tough to separate. Both play Arnold Palmer and TPC Sawgrass well.

Good luck!

MY CHOICE: Tommy Fleetwood

The Englishman fits the mold of recent international winners who have lifted the trophy. Matsuyama, Rahm, and Niemann followed SoCal native Max Homa as the last four winners. Fleetwood opened his PGA TOUR schedule last week at Pebble Beach and finished T4. As usual, he bludgeoned GIR and finished the week second in Strokes-Gained: Tee to Green. Keeping the ball out of trouble off the tee and into the greens are keys this week.

Yes, The Open Championship is in his backyard at Royal Birkdale, in Southport, England, got it. Has McIlroy won at Royal Portrush yet?

Right.

You do you. I’ll do me.

Others to consider

Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Jake Knapp

Longshots

Rickie Fowler, Ryan Fox

Horses for Courses

Top Players OWGR (Cuts made/starts)Top 10Rds 60sTop 25Event Notes
Scottie Scheffler (5/6)29/224T30 or better in 5 straight
Rory McIlroy (7/8)318/306T29 or better
Justin Rose (11/13)215/444MC-T56
Tommy Fleetwood (4/4)15/161T10 2024; 1 of 16 rounds ABOVE par
Chris GotterupFirst Appearance
Russell Henley (6/9)012/302T17 best 2020
JJ Spaun (2/7)03/180T33 2023
Robert MacIntyre (1/1)02/41All four rounds 71 or better
Ben Griffin (1/1)02/40T37 2024
Xander Schauffele (7/7)213/28626 of 28 rounds 71 or better; T4 2024 best
Hideki Matsuyama (8/10)415/34662 to close to win 2024; 64; plays annually
Harris English (6/9)212/3037th-T12 last two events
Sepp Straka (3/5)03/141T15 2022; T43 next best
Viktor Hovland (4/4)28/144T19-T20-T4-T5 last 4
Alex Noren (4/5)04/182T12 2021
TopRdsTopNotes
 1060s25 
Keegan Bradley (8/14)2 4Last T50 or better was T34 in 2017
Collin Morikawa (5/5)211/203T19-T6-T2 last 3
Ludvig Aberg (1/1)0 1Event defending champion at Torrey Pines
Cameron Young (3/3)17/12362 on debut for T2 2022; T16-T20 L2Y
Maverick McNealy (1/2)14/61T7 2022; MC 2021
Matt Fitzpatrick (2/4)13/121T5 2021 after T30 2020; MC L2Y
Ryan Gerard   First Appearance
Si Woo Kim (5/9)110/2613rd 2019; MC 2 of last 4
Aaron Rai (3/3)03/120T37-T29-T61 3 of last 4
Sam Burns (3/6)25/183T10-MC-MC-3rd-T23-MC last 6
Shane Lowry (1/3)03/71T14 2023 last visit
Patrick Cantlay (7/9)315/326T4-3rd L2Y; 54 hole leader 2024
Marco Penge   First Appearance
Corey Conners (2/5)02/141T24-T61 L2Y
Jason Day (4/7)26/2229th 2024; T9 2023
Andrew Novak   First Appearance
Matt McCarty   First Appearance
Sam Stevens   First Appearance
Michael Kim (0-4) 0/8 Never broke par here
Kurt Kitayama (1/2)02/60T39-MC L2Y
Pierceson Coody   First Appearance
Sami Valimaki   First Appearance
Brian Harman (7/10)110/341T3 2014 only Top 40
Max Greyserman   First Appearance
Akshay Bhatia   First Appearance
Ryan Fox   First Appearance
Min Woo Lee (0-1)   77-70 MC 2022
Daniel Berger (0-2) 0/4 Last visit 2018
Jacob Bridgeman   First Appearance
Wyndham Clark (3/5)16/142MC-T33-DQ-T8-T17 last 5
Nick Taylor (7/9)011/321T39-T33-T20 last 3; T20 best
Harry Hall   First Appearance
Taylor Pendrith (0/1)   73-72 MC 2022
JT Poston (5/7)18/242T10 2024 best; 3 other T30 >
Jake Knapp   First Appearance
Nico Echavarria   First Appearance
Max McGreevy (0/1)   73-72 MC 2023
Garrick Higgo   First Appearance
Adam Scott (15/16)7 112020 Winner; T2 2016; 11 straight
Lucas Glover (4/12)0 1MC 8 straight before T35 2024
Rico Hoey   First Appearance
Rickie Fowler (6/8)08/2824 straight T20 best in run, career
Ryo Hisatsune   First Appearance
Bud Cauley (2/6)02/201Last visit 2020
Brian Campbell   First Appearance
Denny McCarthy (3/5)04/16164 in 2023 T14; L2B2
Patrick Rodgers (6/10)09/283MC last 3; T30> 5 straight before that
Jordan Spieth (9/12)215/375DQ-MC last 2; last top 10 2018
Sahith Theegala (4/4)17/121T37-T6-T48-T49 last 4
Aldrich  Potgieter   First Appearance
Jhonattan Vegas (6/10)08/322T56-T55 L2V
Tom Hoge (6/7)16/2428th 2024, T14 2023
Matti Schmid   First Appearance
Kevin Yu (0/1)   75-75 MC
Tom Kim (2/2)03/61T24-T45 L2Y
Max Homa (6/8)413/285T16-2nd-T10-WIN-T5 last 5 here
Tony Finau (8/10)212/3657 straight; 5 T20 or better; 2nd twice

WM Phoenix Open Betting Angles 2026

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WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale

Stadium Course

Field

Scottsdale, Arizona

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NOW PLAYING:

Host Course (Since 1987)The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale
Yards (per official scorecard):7,261.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa trivialis, creeping Bentgrass, perennial Ryegrass; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:12 feet.
Rough:Overseeded Rye and Fine Fescue at 3.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play67/3/6.
Architect(s):Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (1986); Tom Weiskopf (2014 renovation for 2015 event).
Defending Champion (event):Thomas Detry, -24 (tournament scoring record; no longer eligible for the PGA TOUR).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Scottie Scheffler (2022-23), Brooks Koepka (2015, 2021), and Hideki Matsuyama (2016-17).
Course Record:60; Nick Taylor, Round 1 (2024).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post-2014 renovation)24-under 261 (Thomas Detry, 2025).
Fact of the Week:Only five international players (six wins) have lifted the trophy this century, including the last two winners.
Fact of the Week II:Only two players have won on debut this century.

Notes:

  • Field of 123.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • The OWGR is represented by 32 of the top 50.
  • $9.6 million – $1.728 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – WM Phoenix Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Thomas Detry (-24)Smoked the field by seven shots to become the first champion to win by more than two strokes since the 2014 renovation. No longer eligible for the PGA TOUR.
2024Nick Taylor (-21)Held off Charley Hoffman to become the sixth winner in the last nine to need extra holes. The duo established the new tournament scoring record.
2023Scottie Scheffler (-19)Tied the tournament scoring record defending his title. Won by two shots over Nick Taylor. Third place was five back.
2022Scottie Scheffler (-16)Defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021Brooks Koepka (-19)Matched the tournament scoring mark while holding off KH Lee and Xander Schauffele by a shot.
2020Webb Simpson (-17)Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2019Rickie Fowler (-19)Sat 20-under after 54 holes before eventually winning by two shots in cool, rainy, conditions.
2018Gary Woodland (-18)Defeated Chez Reavie in a playoff; Circled 26 birdies.
2017Hideki Matsuyama    (-17)Successfully defended his title knocking out Webb Simpson in a playoff.
2016Hideki Matsuyama     (-14)Won in his third attempt, defeating Rickie Fowler in a playoff.
2015Brooks Koepka (-15)First win on TOUR on debut; defeated a trio of players, including Hideki Matsuyama, by a shot.

Notables

  • The highest winning total since 2015 is 14-under par, from 2016.
  • The last three champions have set the tournament scoring record.
  • Eight of the last nine winners have ranked eighth or better in Ball-Striking.
  • Detry, Taylor, and Matsuyama joined Aaron Baddeley (2007) and Vijay Singh (2003) as the only international winners this century.
  • Only two players won on debut this century, including 23-year-old J.B. Holmes (not entered) in 2006, and none since Koepka in 2015.
  • Holmes and Matsuyama are the youngest winners at 23.
  • Kenny Perry (not entered) is the oldest winner at 48 in 2009.
  • Tom Weiskopf designs features on TOUR at TPC Craig Ranch and Black Desert Golf Club, where Michael Brennan (2025) and Matt McCarty both broke their maidens.
  • Every winner in the last decade ranked T13 or better in Greens in Regulation.

Thoughts on WM Phoenix Open

Pay the “Winner without Scheffler” Tax.

Perfect weather = golf ball gonna go and conditions will be ideal for scoring.

Leave the kids at home. Only two players this century, as noted above, have won on debut here. Detry’s masterclass in 2025 is all it took to become a first-time TOUR winner at this event. His numbers were Scheffler-ian. Good luck finding a repeat of that.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event, plus a backup selection if your original choice does not tee off.

1 use per year.

LAST WEEK – Farmers Insurance Open

My Choice: Jason Day (T38)

WE ARE GOING THE WRONG WAY.

I picked the wrong “old” one-time major champion with great course history.

Shit happens.

He played the weekend in four-under-par, but that’s of no consolation when the winner posted 22-under. He had a fantastic week with his approach play, but was in the bottom 10 in putting. That was NOT the combination I envisioned.

Sigh.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760

THIS WEEK – WM Phoenix Open

Although I’m disappointed with my last three weeks, this game will be won and lost at THE PLAYERS, the four major championships, and the first two events of the FedExCup Playoffs.

Getting it right for those events, plus the Signature Events, remains the main thing.

MY CHOICE: Sahith Theegala

The 54-hole leader, or co-leader, twice in four years, enters the week off back-to-back top-10 paydays and looks to have found his early-season groove.

I’m going to let Koepka get comfortable. Matsuyama was a tough lay-down here, but he also loves Riviera. Scheffler? No chance. Majors or THE PLAYERS. Remember when nobody won THE PLAYERS back-to-back? Yeah, no chance I’m writing him off for three straight.

Others to consider:

Cameron Young – big hitter, GREAT putter, hotter than a match.

Si Woo Kim – As long as his pal Scheffler is nowhere near him on Sunday, he has desert bonafides.

Maverick McNealy – Back-to-back Top 10s here.

Jake Knapp – Another who can overpower the angles and roll the rock.

Chris Gotterup – Free as a bird and should love this environment.

Pierceson Coody – Closed with 65 last week at Torrey Pines and led the TOUR in SG: Off the Tee in 2025.

Horses for Courses

PlayerTopScoringTopNotes
(cuts made/starts)10Avg25 
Scottie Scheffler (5/6)467.2552x winner; T3 2024.
Nick Taylor (7/11)269.833T25-WIN-T2 last 3 = best 3.
Hideki Matsuyama (11/12)368.249T29 or better in 10 of 11.
Rickie Fowler (11/17)569.097WD/MC 4 of last 5; 2019 WIN, 2016 2nd.
Brooks Koepka (5/5)368.153T3 last visit ’22.
Jordan Spieth (7/9)668.506T6 or better 4 of last 5; 3 straight T6>.
Gary Woodland (11/16)369.525Win 2018; T7 defense; T21 2025.
Xander Schauffele (6/6)467.9263 straight top 10; worst is T17; 1st start since 2023.
Daniel Berger (7/10)468.945T2 2025; T9 2020.
Sam Burns (4/7)269.053T49-T3-T6 last 3.
     
Sahith Theegala (4/4)268.562See above.
Cameron Young (4/4)169.192T12-T8 (-26) last 2 years; 4 straight paydays.
Maverick McNealy (2/3)268.442T9-T6 (-28) last 2 years.
Matt Fitzpatrick (3/4)168.932MC-T15-T29-T10 last 4.
Corey Conners (6/6)069.831T17 best; 7th straight year.

Procore Championship

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FedExCup Fall – Procore Championship

Silverado Resort

North Course

Napa, California

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Quick Links:

Odds Outlook

Mike Glasscott: Procore Championship tips

It’s a different field in Napa Valley in 2025 with 10 of the 12 USA Ryder Cup players teeing it up.

The rank and file will use this week and six more to establish playing privileges for the 2026 TOUR season, which begins in January. Remember, only the top 100 are guaranteed a full schedule for 2026. Read more about it here.

NOW PLAYING: Procore Championship

Host CourseSilverado Resort – North Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,138 (up 15 yards from 2024; new professional tee on No. 15).
Par:72 (35-37).
Greens:Bentgrass/Poa annua; 5,400 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:11.5 feet and up.
Rough:Bluegrass/Rye at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play55/2/2
Architect(s):Ben Harmon (1955); Robert Trent Jones, Sr., (1966); Johnny Miller (2011).
Defending Champion (event):Patton Kizzire (-20).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Max Homa (2022, 2021).
Multiple Champions (course):Max Homa, Brendan Steele (not entered).
Fact of the Week:The first 11 events produced nine unique winners and five were native Californians.

Procore Championship

The opening event to the wrap-around season from years past transitioned into the opening event for the FedExCup Fall in 2023.

The last six winners have posted 16-under or better, and four of the previous five champions have posted the lowest winning totals.

Theegala is the only winner in the last seven editions not to register in the top three in SG: Tee to Green (T6). Kizzire was fourth in 2024.

In his first victory in 2021, Max Homa is the only winner in the last six years to finish outside the top seven in Scrambling (T42). Kizzire was first in 2024.

Former champions in the field this week also include Cameron Champ (2019) and Emiliano Grillo (2015).

Recent PGA TOUR Winners

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (first time)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaWorldBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
89th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (3)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicAndrew Novak/Ben Griffin (first time for both)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
ONEFLIGHT Myrtle BeachRyan Fox
107th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
CS ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
125th U.S. OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
The Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose (oldest modern Euro)
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)

Recent Winners – Procore Championship

Italics – not entered/qualified this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Patton Kizzire (-20)Won by five shots to set the tournament record for margin of victory. First win 6+ years.
2023Sahith Theegala (-21)California native won for the first time on TOUR and tied the tournament scoring record.
2022Max Homa (-16)Successfully defended his 2021 title by defeating 2016 Masters champion Danny Willett by a shot.
2021Max Homa (-19)Closing with 65, he beat Maverick McNealy by a shot to pick up his first top 10 since June.
2020Stewart Cink (-21)Became the oldest winner at 47 while setting the tournament scoring record.
2019Cameron Champ (-17)Sacramento native held off Adam Hadwin to win by one.
2018Kevin Tway (-14)Posting the highest winning total, Tway needed a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.

Horses for Courses – Procore Championship

The FedExCup Fall harvest begins at Silverado Resort (North Course) in Napa Valley, launching the first of seven events of the back half of 2025. Returning to Silverado for the 12th consecutive season, the Par-72, stretched to 7,138 yards, welcomes a field of 144 players highlighted by defending champion Patton Kizzire (+30000) and 10 of the 12 players representing the USA at the Ryder Cup in two weeks at Bethpage Black in New York.

Winning by five shots in the fall of 2024, Kizzire set the tournament record for margin of victory in his third win on TOUR. Posting 20-under-par, he missed equaling the tournament record – matched by Sahith Theegala (+4000) in 2023 – by a shot. He led the field in SG: Putting and Scrambling, plus ranked fourth in SG: Tee to Green. Kizzire had previous success in Wine Country. He finished second on debut in the 2016 edition and will return for the ninth time. He is one of only two non-California champions since 2019.

Orange, California, native Sahith Theegala (+4000) returns to the site of his first victory on TOUR. Surrounded by friends and family, he matched the tournament scoring record of 21-under-par 265 in 2023 and added his third consecutive top-10 payday with T7 in defense last year. He cashed four T14 or better paydays from five weekend performances and owns a scoring average of 68.80.

The only two-time winner at the North Course to enter this week, Californian Max Homa (+4500), owns four top-10 results from nine attempts. The Southern California native, who attended school in the East Bay at Cal-Berkeley, won the event in 2021 and 2022 before a T7 payday in 2023 wiped out his attempt at a three-peat. He fell short of the weekend by one shot in 2024 but has made the cut in seven of nine visits. A victory would see him become the only three-time winner in event history.

2025 Ryder Cup Players

Players listed below are competing this week; Odds presented by FanDuel Sportsbook;

Keegan Bradley sends 10 of his 12 players to the first tee at Silverado.

PlayerRoundsTop 10AvgOdds
Scottie Scheffler (first appearance)000+210
Russell Henley8070.88+1600
Justin Thomas21469.19+1600
J.J. Spaun30170.53+2500
Collin Morikawa6170.00+2500
Harris English22170.95+2700
Ben Griffin2073.00+2500
Cameron Young2074.00+2000
Patrick Cantlay16070.44+1800
Sam Burns6169.50+2000

Sacramento native Cameron Champ (+10000) won the 2019 tournament after signing for T25 in 2018. He is one of four winners (six events) from the state of California in the previous 11 events. If he qualifies for the weekend in 2025, it would be his first shot at the final 36 holes in five years. He has missed the cut on his previous four visits.

Emiliano Grillo (+8000), the last player to win on debut at Silverado, lifted the trophy in 2015, and is one of two international champions. The Argentinian was playing in his first PGA TOUR event with a TOUR card and needed a playoff, one of only two in history, to win. His total of 15-under equals the highest winning score in 11 events. Teeing it up for the ninth time, he owns five paydays of T29 or better and enters for the first time since the 2023 event.

SG: Putting

RankPlayerOdds
1Sam Burns+2000
3Taylor Montgomery+17500
4Sam Ryder+17500
6Cameron Young+2000
7Nico Echavarria+10000
9Brandt Snedeker+50000
10Sami Valimaki+10000
11Andrew Putnam+12500
16Thorbjorn Olesen+8000
17Justin Thomas+1600
18Harris English+2700
20Scottie Scheffler+210

The North Course at Silverado Resort plays only 7,138 yards to Par-72 but has the toughest fairways to hit on TOUR. The 2024 event saw less than half, 46.81 percent, of drives find the short grass. The other major defense of the track, most recently renovated for the arrival of the TOUR in 2014, is the putting surfaces. The Bent/Poa annua greens flummox the best players on TOUR with their nuance and slope. Only Torrey Pines and Detroit Golf Club were more difficult to navigate inside 10 feet in 2024. The last two champions finished first and second in SG: Putting, while the last five winners ranked in the top 15. The course has played under-par in the 11 previous events, and the 36-hole cut has been two-under or BETTER the last six years.

More than 50 percent of approach shots will come from the rough, and missing the greens will challenge the best of scramblers. Getting it close from bunkers, closely mown areas, and bluegrass/ryegrass around the greens isn’t cut and dry. Silverado ranked fifth-most difficult in approach around the greens in 2024.

Excellent wedge players and putters should thrive.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

Justin Thomas (+1600): No matter which stage of his career he was currently navigating, Thomas has flourished in Napa Valley. He missed the weekend in 2014 as an up-and-comer but returned in 2015 to hit the podium (T3), beginning a run of 15 of 16 rounds at par or better. Securing T8 in 2016, he did not return until the 2019 event. He added four rounds of 71 or better, including 64 in Round 2, and collected T4 money. After a four-year hiatus, he played in the final group in 2023 and hit the top five (solo fifth), his fourth top-10 result in six visits.

Matt Kuchar (+10000): The veteran has cashed in five of six, including his last four visits over the previous four seasons. Four of those paydays are T21 or better, including the last three years (T13-T7-T12). Making the cut in 2025 would run his streak to five straight at Silverado.

Tom Hoge (+25000): Although not in the best form currently, Hoge is on a run of four straight appearances and six of his last seven. Racking up T7 in 2024, followed by T12 in 2023, and 15 of his last 16 are par or better.

Justin Lower (+30000): Another longer shot, Lower collected T4 in 2022 and T7 in 2024 and is on a run of three straight.

Mark Hubbard (+8000): The former San Jose State player has not cracked the top 10 but has posted four of his last six paydays between T13 and T21.

Maverick McNealy (+2500): The runner-up to Homa in his first victory, he missed the cut the year before and the two events following. Careful.

September is Responsible Gaming Education Month. For more information on how to put together your sports betting game plan, visit haveagameplan.org/pgatour.

2025 TOUR Championship

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Yep, he’s the man to beat this week and every week!

FedEx Cup Playoffs – Event No. 3

TOUR Championship

East Lake Golf Club

Atlanta, Georgia

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Thoughts on Chalk (odds via Bet365.com)

Scottie Scheffler (+162): He’s never been the medalist at this event. That’s all I got. That’s his new conquest.

Rory McIlroy (+700): Circled 17 birdies and an eagle last week, plenty. Squared eight bogeys and FOUR doubles, plenty in the wrong direction. Once again, he will be paired with Scheffler for the first round. LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1200): He’ll need to keep it close enough for one of his 63s on Sunday. We know he doesn’t hold the lead well.

Ludvig Aberg (+1600): With three top-10 paydays in his last four, all big events, I’d suggest he makes it four out of five in his second start at East Lake.

Russell Henley (+1800): On Bermuda. Yes.

Viktor Hovland (+2200): If it is all going to come together, this would be the week, and course, for it to happen.

Sam Burns (+2500): Only one of three players to hit 10-under the last two seasons (gross).

Cameron Young (+2800): No let down after his first win on TOUR at Wyndham. Next stop is solidifying a Captain’s Pick. When does the water get too deep?

Collin Morikawa (+2800): Posted 22-under to win the gross last year. Has not contended since Detroit.

Justin Thomas (+2800): Four straight outside T20. Loves it here. Keep reading.

Patrick Cantlay (+2800): Didn’t catch the spark at Caves Valley.

Others for Top 5 and Top 10 action are mentioned in Prop Bets (Odds Outlook) at PGATOUR.com

Seven players make their debut.

Six players have won the FedExCup Championship.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseEast Lake Golf  Club
Yards (per official scorecard):7,440.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:TifEagle Bermudagrass; 6,600 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12 feet and up.
Rough:Tifway 419 Bermudagrass at 3.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play78/5/8
Architect(s):Tom Bendelow (1904); Donald Ross (1913); George Cobb (1959); Rees Jones (multiple); Andrew Green (2023-24).
Tournament Record (2007-25)257; Tiger Woods (Bentgrass) 2007.
Course record (last):60; Zach Johnson (2007, Bentgrass); 61; Collin Morikawa (2023, Bermudagrass).
Defending Champion (net):Scottie Scheffler (-30).
Defending “Champion” (gross):Collin Morikawa (-22).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Rory McIlroy (2016, 2019, 2022).
Facts of the Week:East Lake returns to a Par-70 for 2025 and STARTING STROKES no longer exist.

Recent Winners – TOUR Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2024Scottie Scheffler (-30)Didn’t win the gross, but they handed out the trophy for net. Won by four shots over Morikawa.
2023Viktor Hovland (-27)Backed up his BMW Championship with a commanding five-shot victory.
2022Rory McIlroy (-21)Held off Scheffler by a shot to win for the third time.
2021Patrick Cantlay (-21)Lost the gross by four shots but won the war by one.

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (first time)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaWorldBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
89th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (3)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicAndrew Novak/Ben Griffin (first time for both)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
ONEFLIGHT Myrtle BeachRyan Fox
107th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
CS ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
125th U.S. OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
The Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose (oldest modern Euro)
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)

2024 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryChris Kirk
Sony Open in HawaiiGrayson Murray (Rest in Peace)
The American ExpressNick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance OpenMatthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble BeachWyndham Clark (54 holes)
WM Phoenix OpenNick Taylor
The Genesis InvitationalHideki Matsuyama
Mexico Open at VidantaJake Knapp (rookie)
Cognizant ClassicAustin Eckroat (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie Scheffler
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar ChampionshipPeter Malnati
Texas Children’s Houston OpenStephan Jaeger (first time)
Valero Texas OpenAkshay Bhatia
88th Masters TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC HeritageScottie Scheffler (4)
Zurich ClassicRory McIlroy & Shane Lowry
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonTaylor Pendrith (first time)
Wells Fargo ChampionshipRory McIlroy (2)
106th PGA ChampionshipXander Schauffele
Charles Schwab ChallengeDavis Riley
RBC Canadian OpenRobert MacIntyre (first time)
The 49th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (5)
124th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Travelers ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Rocket Mortgage ClassicCam Davis
John Deere ClassicDavis Thompson (first time)
Genesis Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyre (2)
152nd Open ChampionshipXander Schauffele (2)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
2024 Paris OlympicsScottie Scheffler (7)
3M OpenJhonattan Vegas
Wyndham ChampionshipAaron Rai (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama (2)
BMW ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
The TOUR ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (8)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipPatton Kizzire
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipKevin Yu (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMatt McCarty (first time)
Shriners Children’s OpenJT Poston
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPNico Echavarria
World Wide Technology ChampAustin Eckroat (2)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampRafa Campos (first time)
The RSM ClassicMaverick McNealy (first time)

Horses for Courses – TOUR Championship

All roads end at the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club outside Atlanta for the top 30 players in the FedExCup Playoffs. Since 2007, East Lake Golf Club has been the exclusive host to determine the winner of the most lucrative prize on the PGA TOUR.

For the fourth consecutive season, Scottie Scheffler (+150) arrives at the top of the FedExCup Playoffs points table. In 2024, the World No. 1 paid off his Starting Strokes lead of 10-under and won the FedExCup Championship for the first time in five tries. This year, Starting Strokes are no longer in use. The entire field will make a run at the reigning champion from even par. Scheffler owns four T6 or better paydays in five starts, including posting 20-under (264) in his 2024 victory.

YearTo Par (total)Gross FinishNet Finish
2024-20 (264)2ndWIN
2023-1 (279)T21T6
2022-10 (270)T13T2
2021-2 (278)T17T22
2020-12 (268)2ndT5

With a win this week, Scheffler would be the first player to win the event in consecutive seasons. It would also be the first time finishing with the lowest gross total.

Scheffler’s biggest rival this week is three-time champion Rory McIlroy (+850). Making his 12th start at East Lake, the host for the 19th consecutive season, the World No. 2 owns nine top-10 results, which include titles in 2022 (-17; 263), 2019 (-13; 267), and 2016 (-12; 268). In his last eight starts, he finished outside the top 10 once (T14, 2021) and is one of six previous winners in the field. In 44 career loops, he has posted a round in the 60s 33 times. Not bad.

Scoring Average – TOUR Championship

Select players listed below are competing this week; Odds presented by FanDuel Sportsbook; Minimum eight rounds played.

There are seven players in the field of 30 on debut this week.

RankPlayerRoundsAvgOdds
1Viktor Hovland2067.40+2700
2Justin Thomas3267.81+2500
3Scottie Scheffler2067.95+150
T4Russell Henley1668.00+2000
T4Collin Morikawa2068.00+3000
6Rory McIlroy4468.11+850
7Sepp Straka1268.42+3500
8Sam Burns1668.69+3000
9Tommy Fleetwood1668.94+1400
10Justin Rose4069.05+5500

Viktor Hovland (+2700) pulverized the previous Par-70 in the 2023 edition. The Norwegian posted 19-under (261), which included rounds of 64 and a closing round of 63, to win the FedExCup TOUR Championship for the first time. Making his sixth consecutive start, he has signed for 20 rounds all at par or better (see above). He also shared fifth place in 2021.

Justin Thomas (+2500) broke his streak of seven consecutive top-10 paydays at East Lake when he failed to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs in 2023. Returning in 2024, he posted 14-under but cashed outside the top 10 for the first time (T14). Thomas does have another current streak to protect. Over his last four visits to East Lake, he produced a gross total in double-digits under par. He is second in the field this week in Scoring Average at East Lake.

Collin Morikawa (+3000) set the Bermudagrass greens tournament scoring record of 22-under-par in 2024, missing tying Tiger Woods’ 2007 record (Bentgrass greens) by a shot. He “beat” Scheffler by two shots but finished second due to Starting Strokes. In the 2023 edition, he opened with 61 to set the Bermudagrass COURSE record. He followed with 64 to set the 36-hole tournament scoring record before fading with 73-72 on the weekend (T4, gross). Making his sixth start, he owns three top-seven gross finishes.

SG: Tee to Green

RankPlayerOdds
1Scottie Scheffler+150
2Tommy Fleetwood+1400
3Collin Morikawa+3000
6J.J. Spaun+2700
7Russell Henley+2000
8Keegan Bradley+4000
10Sepp Straka+3500
11Shane Lowry+7000
12Rory McIlroy+850
14Viktor Hovland+2700

The 2025 scorecard reduction from Par-71 to Par-70 includes shrinking hole No. 14 from 580 yards to 530 yards. The Par-5 now plays to a Par-4. The renovations before the 2024 event opened sightlines and increased the size of the greens, among other things. The new grass on the greens should be settled and conditions should play firmer and faster than in 2024. A putting contest is not going to decide who wins the first-place payday of $10 million from the $40 million prize purse. Load up on the players who find fairways and greens.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

Patrick Cantlay (+2500): The Californian failed to qualify for the 2020 edition but returned in style to win the 2021 event, but did not produce the lowest gross total. After failing to break par over 72 holes in each of his first three visits, his victory in 2021 kicked off a run of three straight seasons at eight-under-par or better, all resulting in top-10 paychecks. His seven-under gross total in 2024 paid T17 money.

Russell Henley (+2000): After cashing T3 in the 2017 edition, the Georgia native did not return until the 2023 event. A fantastic player on all strains of Bermudagrass, he opened with 65 and closed with 66 to post 6-under for the week, good for a top-half finish of T14. Last year, he stormed home on Sunday with 62, one off the course record, and posted 17-under-par 267 for the fourth-best gross total.

Sam Burns (+3000): The Louisiana native, making his fifth consecutive appearance, does not mind hot and humid conditions this time of the year! He joins Hovland and Morikawa as the only players entered to post double-digits under-par in the last two events at East Lake (T12, T9).

Hideki Matsuyama (+4000): Finishing tied for ninth in 2024, the Japanese star continued his wonderful all-or-nothing paydays at East Lake. In his last six starts, half resulted in paydays inside the top 10 while the other three were T11 or worse. His best results are T4 in 2018 and fifth in 2016.

Justin Rose (+5500): Like Matsuyama, the Englishman’s best days were in the 2010s, including six consecutive top-10 results over six events spanning 2012-2018. Rose returns to East Lake for the first time since 2019.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
The SentrySungjae Im3rd$1,360,000
Sony Open in HawaiiRussell HenleyT10195,025
The American ExpressAdam HadwinMC 
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3252,080
AT&T Pebble BeachLudvig AbergWD 
WM Phoenix OpenRasmus HojgaardT12195,500
Genesis InvitationalWill ZalatorisT24168,857
Mexico OpenPatrick RodgersT2559,350
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT2573,721
Arnold PalmerKeegan BradleyT5800,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaT10656,250
Valspar ChampionshipSepp StrakaT2855,844
Houston OpenAaron RaiMC 
Valero Texas OpenCorey ConnersT18113,050
89th MastersRory McIlroyWIN4,200,000
RBC HeritageScottie SchefflerT8540,000
Zurich ClassicKurt KitayamaMC 
Byron NelsonSi Woo KimT15136,719
Truist ChampionshipTommy FleetwoodT4826,667
107th PGA ChampionshipBryson DeChambeauT21,418,667
CS ChallengeJordan SpiethT3642,344
MemorialHideki Matsuyama38th94,000
RBC Canadian OpenTaylor PendrithT2764,353
United States OpenJon RahmT7615,786
TravelersBrian Harman8th620,000
Rocket ClassicCam YoungT4627,091
John Deere ClassicDenny McCarthyT11174,300
Scottish OpenRobert MacIntyreT6519,800
The Open ChampionshipShane LowryT4068,340
3M OpenWyndham ClarkT12186,900
Wyndham ChampBen GriffinT11198,850
FedEx St. Jude ChampXander SchauffeleT22186,666
BMW ChampionshipJustin ThomasT33119,666

LAST WEEK – BMW Championship

THE CHOICE: Justin Thomas – T33

I could have used Viktor Hovland or Patrick Cantlay here, both event champions over the last five years. Instead, I’m running out the biggest winner in the pile who won this event in Chicago in 2019. Chasing with Chris Gotterup or J.J. Spaun is desperate, but I like it.

Well, gang, Hovland would have been the better choice!

I finished the season in 22nd place and took home REAL MONEY!

Individual Standings

FINAL RESULTS

PlacePWCTeamOwnerEarningsScorecard
1stArrowup 10Brandon Smith Gold TrophyBrandon Smith$18,552,543Season
2ndArrowdown 1Scotties Cellmates Silver MedalScott Reese$18,214,045Season
3rdArrowdown 1Long Shank Champion Bronze MedalRed MGary McGee$17,454,748Season
4th—Far From ParNick Luisi$17,375,704Season
5thArrowdown 2Josh VeithJosh Veith$16,976,992Season
6thArrowdown 1Jesper ParnepicksJamie Larner$16,965,779Season
7thArrowdown 1FairwaysNGreensSteve Duperrieu$16,868,533Season
8thArrowdown 1Dave’s Super HeroesDavid Lawlor$16,741,371Season
9thArrowdown 1HKleinHowie Klein$15,961,935Season
10th—MyersMike Myers$15,507,933Season
11thArrowup 3Strikes And GuttersRob Carpenter$15,315,402Season
12thArrowdown 3HarmonatorsGearoid Harmon$15,193,031Season
13thArrowup 3Sandy’s Surf Shack Green Circle With MinusSanford Moore$15,009,166Season
14thArrowup 1DcharnsDon Charnley$14,998,476Season
15thArrowdown 3Out Of Bounds/BallsMick McDonnell$14,986,687Season
16thArrowdown 3Avid 3 PuttersTyler Boyd$14,986,456Season
17th—KODKevin O’Dea$14,370,779Season
18thArrowup 3Where Eagles DareIan Kevan$13,995,447Season
19thArrowdown 1Swingers ClubMatt Needham$13,959,271Season
20th—D Dot SaccoDan Sacco$13,656,466Season
21stArrowdown 2Eye Off The TigerPatrick Kelly$13,619,556Season
22nd—GlassholesMike Glasscott$13,298,800Season
23rdArrowup 1Bellerive BulldogMichael Kaiser$13,242,928Season
24thArrowup 1Lokeness MonstersJoshua Lokey$13,099,780Season
25thArrowup 3A Gusta WindCraig Lambert$12,784,134Season

I hope you beat me!

Thanks for reading!