Betting Angles – 126th United States Open

126th United States Open

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club

Southampton, Long Island, New York

PGATOUR.com Links

Mike Glassscott’s Odds Outlook

Mike Glasscott’s DraftKings Prop Bets

Expert Picks

Rob Bolton’s Power Rankings

Rob Bolton’s Sleepers

Rob Bolton’s Fantasy Insider

Thoughts on Chalk:

Scottie Scheffler (+600): I don’t think it’s a surprise that he’s drifting away from his opening number. With the career Grand Slam front and center for the first time, plus his admitted lack of reps in environments like Southampton, I’d wade into the top 10 market but there’s no value. Live betting is probably the only angle here.

Rory McIlroy (+1100): 80-70 in 2018, his third consecutive MC at a U.S. Open. His streak of six straight top 10s was busted last year with T19. I won’t and can’t fade him.

Jon Rahm (+1200): He’s my Fantasy Captain and has the game for the most difficult conditions.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800): The tougher, the better, and already a proven winner on a U.S. Open setup.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1800): He won’t have the same crowd support as he will at Royal Birkdale. It might not matter.

Xander Schauffele (+1800): His track record at this event and in major championships is stellar. All aboard.

Cameron Young (+2200): Like Fleetwood, yet to win a major, but has all the tools. His best finish in a major championship was second place in 2022 at The Open Championship.

Ludvig Aberg (+2200): I don’t have enough evidence of his success in windy conditions. Superb young player and ball-striker.

Sam Burns (+3000): Make or break this week. Super putting doesn’t wipe out average scrambling and approach play.

Longer shots who deserve notice: English, Matsuyama, Koepka (if healthy), Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, and Gary Woodland.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseShinnecock Hills
Yards (per official scorecard):7,440 yards.
Par:70 (35-35).
Greens:Poa annua; 8,800 square feet.
Stimpmeter:Championship Speed.
Rough:Chewings fescue; 5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play155/1/1
Architect(s):William Flynn (1931); Coore & Crenshaw (2016).
Defending Champion (event):Brooks Koepka (+1) successfully defended his 2017 title here in 2018.
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Koepka (2017-18); Bryson DeChambeau (2020; 2024).
Course Record (latest):63; Tommy Fleetwood (Round 4, 2018).
72 Hole Tournament Record (course):276 (-4); Retief Goosen (2004).
Fact of the Week:In four U.S. Opens since 1986, only four players have broken par over 72 holes.

Notes:

  • Field of 156 players.
  • 49 of the top 50 OWGR.
  • Top 60 and ties play the weekend.
  • $22 million – $4.5 million – 750 FedExCup Points

Recent Winners – U.S. Open

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025J.J. SpaunDefeated Robert MacIntyre at Oakmont by two shots to win his first major championship
2024Bryson DeChambeauHeld off Rory McIlroy at Pinehurst No. 2 by one shot to win his second U.S. Open in five years.
2023Wyndham ClarkEarned his first major championship at LACC. Defeated McIlroy by a shot
2022Matt FitzpatrickEarned his first major championship at The Country Club; Defeated Scheffler by a shot.
2021Jon RahmBirdied the final hole at Torrey Pines to win his first major championship.
2020Bryson DeChambeauDismantled the field at Winged Foot and won by six. Only six players were within 9 shots of his final total of 6-under.
2019Gary WoodlandThe winner at Pebble Beach is the last champion to post all four rounds in the 60s.
2018Brooks KoepkaOutlasted a 63 on Sunday by one shot to knock off Tommy Fleetwood at Shinnecock Hills

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young
Valspar ChampionshipMatt Fitzpatrick
Houston OpenGary Woodland
Valero Texas OpenJ.J. Spaun
Masters TournamentRory McIlroy
RBC HeritageMatt Fitzpatrick (2)
Zurich ClassicMatt Fitzpatrick (3); Alex Fitzpatrick
Cadillac ChampionshipCameron Young (2)
Truist ChampionshipKristoffer Reitan (first-time winner)
108th PGA ChampionshipAaron Rai
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonWyndham Clark
Charles Schwab ChallengeRussell Henley
Memorial TournamentJT Poston
RBC Canadian OpenBud Cauley (first-time winner)

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first-time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSShane Lowrymc0
Valspar ChampionshipJacob BridgemanT14161,525
Houston OpenChris GotterupT6322,987
Valero Texas OpenSudarshan YellamarajuT14159,250
MastersJon RahmT38101,250
RBC HeritageRussell HenleyT30142,750
Zurich ClassicAlex FitzpatrickWIN1,375,000
Cadillac ChampionshipGary WoodlandT3872,182
Truist ChampionshipRory McIlroyT19242,100
108th PGA ChampionshipBryson DeChambeauMC0
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonSi Woo Kim2nd1,122,700
Charles SchwabJ.J. SpaunT3322,987
Memorial TournamentJordan SpiethMC0
RBC Canadian OpenZach BauchouMC0

Last WEEK – RBC Canadian Open

Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, or Nick Taylor.

Flip a three-headed Canadian coin to find your answer.

I would hate to endorse one and ruin your chances!

THE CHOICE: Zach Bauchou – MC

There, you’re welcome!

Everyone I listed last week was disappointing.

I surrender.

This Week – U.S. Open

The Choice: Xander Schauffele

I’ve been on the record for a while that he was going in this week.

You can always save him for next week or East Lake if you’re not down with his T9-T7 majors record from 2026.

Or his 9-9 at the U.S. Open.

Whatever. This is one of SIX remaining events with a $20 million or better prize pool, and THREE do not have a cut. I think you need to work backwards from The TOUR Championship. Also, this is the penultimate event for the LIV guys (The Open). I would hate to realize Rahm, Hatton, or Reed was left on the bench.

You do you.

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