Yep, he’s the man to beat this week and every week!
FedEx Cup Playoffs – Event No. 3
TOUR Championship
East Lake Golf Club
Atlanta, Georgia
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Thoughts on Chalk (odds via Bet365.com)
Scottie Scheffler (+162): He’s never been the medalist at this event. That’s all I got. That’s his new conquest.
Rory McIlroy (+700): Circled 17 birdies and an eagle last week, plenty. Squared eight bogeys and FOUR doubles, plenty in the wrong direction. Once again, he will be paired with Scheffler for the first round. LET’S GET READY TO RUMBLE.
Tommy Fleetwood (+1200): He’ll need to keep it close enough for one of his 63s on Sunday. We know he doesn’t hold the lead well.
Ludvig Aberg (+1600): With three top-10 paydays in his last four, all big events, I’d suggest he makes it four out of five in his second start at East Lake.
Russell Henley (+1800): On Bermuda. Yes.
Viktor Hovland (+2200): If it is all going to come together, this would be the week, and course, for it to happen.
Sam Burns (+2500): Only one of three players to hit 10-under the last two seasons (gross).
Cameron Young (+2800): No let down after his first win on TOUR at Wyndham. Next stop is solidifying a Captain’s Pick. When does the water get too deep?
Collin Morikawa (+2800): Posted 22-under to win the gross last year. Has not contended since Detroit.
Justin Thomas (+2800): Four straight outside T20. Loves it here. Keep reading.
Patrick Cantlay (+2800): Didn’t catch the spark at Caves Valley.
Others for Top 5 and Top 10 action are mentioned in Prop Bets (Odds Outlook) at PGATOUR.com
Seven players make their debut.
Six players have won the FedExCup Championship.
NOW PLAYING:
| Host Course | East Lake Golf Club |
| Yards (per official scorecard): | 7,440. |
| Par: | 70 (35-35). |
| Greens: | TifEagle Bermudagrass; 6,600 square feet. |
| Stimpmeter: | 12 feet and up. |
| Rough: | Tifway 419 Bermudagrass at 3.5 inches. |
| Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play | 78/5/8 |
| Architect(s): | Tom Bendelow (1904); Donald Ross (1913); George Cobb (1959); Rees Jones (multiple); Andrew Green (2023-24). |
| Tournament Record (2007-25) | 257; Tiger Woods (Bentgrass) 2007. |
| Course record (last): | 60; Zach Johnson (2007, Bentgrass); 61; Collin Morikawa (2023, Bermudagrass). |
| Defending Champion (net): | Scottie Scheffler (-30). |
| Defending “Champion” (gross): | Collin Morikawa (-22). |
| Multiple Champion(s) Entered: | Rory McIlroy (2016, 2019, 2022). |
| Facts of the Week: | East Lake returns to a Par-70 for 2025 and STARTING STROKES no longer exist. |
Recent Winners – TOUR Championship
Italics – not entered this week.
| Year | Winner | Notes |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler (-30) | Didn’t win the gross, but they handed out the trophy for net. Won by four shots over Morikawa. |
| 2023 | Viktor Hovland (-27) | Backed up his BMW Championship with a commanding five-shot victory. |
| 2022 | Rory McIlroy (-21) | Held off Scheffler by a shot to win for the third time. |
| 2021 | Patrick Cantlay (-21) | Lost the gross by four shots but won the war by one. |
2025 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| The Sentry | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Nick Taylor |
| The American Express | Sepp Straka |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Harris English |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Rory McIlroy |
| WM Phoenix Open | Thomas Detry (first time) |
| The Genesis Invitational | Ludvig Aberg |
| Mexico Open at VidantaWorld | Brian Campbell (first time) |
| Cognizant Classic | Joe Highsmith (first time) |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Russell Henley |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | Rory McIlroy (2) |
| Valspar Championship | Viktor Hovland |
| Texas Children’s Houston Open | Min Woo Lee (first time) |
| Valero Texas Open | Brian Harman |
| 89th Masters Tournament | Rory McIlroy (3) |
| RBC Heritage | Justin Thomas |
| Zurich Classic | Andrew Novak/Ben Griffin (first time for both) |
| THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson | Scottie Scheffler |
| Truist Championship | Sepp Straka (2) |
| ONEFLIGHT Myrtle Beach | Ryan Fox |
| 107th PGA Championship | Scottie Scheffler (2) |
| CS Challenge | Ben Griffin (2) |
| Memorial Tournament | Scottie Scheffler (3) |
| RBC Canadian Open | Ryan Fox (2) |
| 125th U.S. Open | J.J. Spaun |
| Travelers Championship | Keegan Bradley |
| Rocket Classic | Aldrich Potgieter (first time) |
| John Deere Classic | Brian Campbell (2) |
| Genesis Scottish Open | Chris Gotterup |
| The Open Championship | Scottie Scheffler (4) |
| 3M Open | Kurt Kitayama |
| Wyndham Championship | Cameron Young (first time) |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | Justin Rose (oldest modern Euro) |
| BMW Championship | Scottie Scheffler (5) |
2024 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| The Sentry | Chris Kirk |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Grayson Murray (Rest in Peace) |
| The American Express | Nick Dunlap (a) |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Matthieu Pavon (rookie) |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Wyndham Clark (54 holes) |
| WM Phoenix Open | Nick Taylor |
| The Genesis Invitational | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Jake Knapp (rookie) |
| Cognizant Classic | Austin Eckroat (first time) |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Scottie Scheffler |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | Scottie Scheffler (2) |
| Valspar Championship | Peter Malnati |
| Texas Children’s Houston Open | Stephan Jaeger (first time) |
| Valero Texas Open | Akshay Bhatia |
| 88th Masters Tournament | Scottie Scheffler (3) |
| RBC Heritage | Scottie Scheffler (4) |
| Zurich Classic | Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry |
| THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson | Taylor Pendrith (first time) |
| Wells Fargo Championship | Rory McIlroy (2) |
| 106th PGA Championship | Xander Schauffele |
| Charles Schwab Challenge | Davis Riley |
| RBC Canadian Open | Robert MacIntyre (first time) |
| The 49th Memorial Tournament | Scottie Scheffler (5) |
| 124th United States Open | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Travelers Championship | Scottie Scheffler (6) |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | Cam Davis |
| John Deere Classic | Davis Thompson (first time) |
| Genesis Scottish Open | Robert MacIntyre (2) |
| 152nd Open Championship | Xander Schauffele (2) |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas |
| 2024 Paris Olympics | Scottie Scheffler (7) |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas |
| Wyndham Championship | Aaron Rai (first time) |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | Hideki Matsuyama (2) |
| BMW Championship | Keegan Bradley |
| The TOUR Championship | Scottie Scheffler (8) |
| FedEx Cup Fall | |
| Procore Championship | Patton Kizzire |
| Sanderson Farms Championship | Kevin Yu (first time) |
| Black Desert Championship | Matt McCarty (first time) |
| Shriners Children’s Open | JT Poston |
| ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Nico Echavarria |
| World Wide Technology Champ | Austin Eckroat (2) |
| Butterfield Bermuda Champ | Rafa Campos (first time) |
| The RSM Classic | Maverick McNealy (first time) |
Horses for Courses – TOUR Championship
All roads end at the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club outside Atlanta for the top 30 players in the FedExCup Playoffs. Since 2007, East Lake Golf Club has been the exclusive host to determine the winner of the most lucrative prize on the PGA TOUR.
For the fourth consecutive season, Scottie Scheffler (+150) arrives at the top of the FedExCup Playoffs points table. In 2024, the World No. 1 paid off his Starting Strokes lead of 10-under and won the FedExCup Championship for the first time in five tries. This year, Starting Strokes are no longer in use. The entire field will make a run at the reigning champion from even par. Scheffler owns four T6 or better paydays in five starts, including posting 20-under (264) in his 2024 victory.
| Year | To Par (total) | Gross Finish | Net Finish |
| 2024 | -20 (264) | 2nd | WIN |
| 2023 | -1 (279) | T21 | T6 |
| 2022 | -10 (270) | T13 | T2 |
| 2021 | -2 (278) | T17 | T22 |
| 2020 | -12 (268) | 2nd | T5 |
With a win this week, Scheffler would be the first player to win the event in consecutive seasons. It would also be the first time finishing with the lowest gross total.
Scheffler’s biggest rival this week is three-time champion Rory McIlroy (+850). Making his 12th start at East Lake, the host for the 19th consecutive season, the World No. 2 owns nine top-10 results, which include titles in 2022 (-17; 263), 2019 (-13; 267), and 2016 (-12; 268). In his last eight starts, he finished outside the top 10 once (T14, 2021) and is one of six previous winners in the field. In 44 career loops, he has posted a round in the 60s 33 times. Not bad.
Scoring Average – TOUR Championship
Select players listed below are competing this week; Odds presented by FanDuel Sportsbook; Minimum eight rounds played.
There are seven players in the field of 30 on debut this week.
| Rank | Player | Rounds | Avg | Odds |
| 1 | Viktor Hovland | 20 | 67.40 | +2700 |
| 2 | Justin Thomas | 32 | 67.81 | +2500 |
| 3 | Scottie Scheffler | 20 | 67.95 | +150 |
| T4 | Russell Henley | 16 | 68.00 | +2000 |
| T4 | Collin Morikawa | 20 | 68.00 | +3000 |
| 6 | Rory McIlroy | 44 | 68.11 | +850 |
| 7 | Sepp Straka | 12 | 68.42 | +3500 |
| 8 | Sam Burns | 16 | 68.69 | +3000 |
| 9 | Tommy Fleetwood | 16 | 68.94 | +1400 |
| 10 | Justin Rose | 40 | 69.05 | +5500 |
Viktor Hovland (+2700) pulverized the previous Par-70 in the 2023 edition. The Norwegian posted 19-under (261), which included rounds of 64 and a closing round of 63, to win the FedExCup TOUR Championship for the first time. Making his sixth consecutive start, he has signed for 20 rounds all at par or better (see above). He also shared fifth place in 2021.
Justin Thomas (+2500) broke his streak of seven consecutive top-10 paydays at East Lake when he failed to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs in 2023. Returning in 2024, he posted 14-under but cashed outside the top 10 for the first time (T14). Thomas does have another current streak to protect. Over his last four visits to East Lake, he produced a gross total in double-digits under par. He is second in the field this week in Scoring Average at East Lake.
Collin Morikawa (+3000) set the Bermudagrass greens tournament scoring record of 22-under-par in 2024, missing tying Tiger Woods’ 2007 record (Bentgrass greens) by a shot. He “beat” Scheffler by two shots but finished second due to Starting Strokes. In the 2023 edition, he opened with 61 to set the Bermudagrass COURSE record. He followed with 64 to set the 36-hole tournament scoring record before fading with 73-72 on the weekend (T4, gross). Making his sixth start, he owns three top-seven gross finishes.
SG: Tee to Green
| Rank | Player | Odds |
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | +150 |
| 2 | Tommy Fleetwood | +1400 |
| 3 | Collin Morikawa | +3000 |
| 6 | J.J. Spaun | +2700 |
| 7 | Russell Henley | +2000 |
| 8 | Keegan Bradley | +4000 |
| 10 | Sepp Straka | +3500 |
| 11 | Shane Lowry | +7000 |
| 12 | Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| 14 | Viktor Hovland | +2700 |
The 2025 scorecard reduction from Par-71 to Par-70 includes shrinking hole No. 14 from 580 yards to 530 yards. The Par-5 now plays to a Par-4. The renovations before the 2024 event opened sightlines and increased the size of the greens, among other things. The new grass on the greens should be settled and conditions should play firmer and faster than in 2024. A putting contest is not going to decide who wins the first-place payday of $10 million from the $40 million prize purse. Load up on the players who find fairways and greens.
Oddsmaker’s Extras
Patrick Cantlay (+2500): The Californian failed to qualify for the 2020 edition but returned in style to win the 2021 event, but did not produce the lowest gross total. After failing to break par over 72 holes in each of his first three visits, his victory in 2021 kicked off a run of three straight seasons at eight-under-par or better, all resulting in top-10 paychecks. His seven-under gross total in 2024 paid T17 money.
Russell Henley (+2000): After cashing T3 in the 2017 edition, the Georgia native did not return until the 2023 event. A fantastic player on all strains of Bermudagrass, he opened with 65 and closed with 66 to post 6-under for the week, good for a top-half finish of T14. Last year, he stormed home on Sunday with 62, one off the course record, and posted 17-under-par 267 for the fourth-best gross total.
Sam Burns (+3000): The Louisiana native, making his fifth consecutive appearance, does not mind hot and humid conditions this time of the year! He joins Hovland and Morikawa as the only players entered to post double-digits under-par in the last two events at East Lake (T12, T9).
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000): Finishing tied for ninth in 2024, the Japanese star continued his wonderful all-or-nothing paydays at East Lake. In his last six starts, half resulted in paydays inside the top 10 while the other three were T11 or worse. His best results are T4 in 2018 and fifth in 2016.
Justin Rose (+5500): Like Matsuyama, the Englishman’s best days were in the 2010s, including six consecutive top-10 results over six events spanning 2012-2018. Rose returns to East Lake for the first time since 2019.
One and Done – Spotter’s Game
1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).
1 use per year.
| Event | Selection | Place | Earnings |
| The Sentry | Sungjae Im | 3rd | $1,360,000 |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Russell Henley | T10 | 195,025 |
| The American Express | Adam Hadwin | MC | |
| Farmers Insurance | Jason Day | T32 | 52,080 |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Ludvig Aberg | WD | |
| WM Phoenix Open | Rasmus Hojgaard | T12 | 195,500 |
| Genesis Invitational | Will Zalatoris | T24 | 168,857 |
| Mexico Open | Patrick Rodgers | T25 | 59,350 |
| Cognizant Classic | Daniel Berger | T25 | 73,721 |
| Arnold Palmer | Keegan Bradley | T5 | 800,000 |
| THE PLAYERS | Collin Morikawa | T10 | 656,250 |
| Valspar Championship | Sepp Straka | T28 | 55,844 |
| Houston Open | Aaron Rai | MC | |
| Valero Texas Open | Corey Conners | T18 | 113,050 |
| 89th Masters | Rory McIlroy | WIN | 4,200,000 |
| RBC Heritage | Scottie Scheffler | T8 | 540,000 |
| Zurich Classic | Kurt Kitayama | MC | |
| Byron Nelson | Si Woo Kim | T15 | 136,719 |
| Truist Championship | Tommy Fleetwood | T4 | 826,667 |
| 107th PGA Championship | Bryson DeChambeau | T2 | 1,418,667 |
| CS Challenge | Jordan Spieth | T36 | 42,344 |
| Memorial | Hideki Matsuyama | 38th | 94,000 |
| RBC Canadian Open | Taylor Pendrith | T27 | 64,353 |
| United States Open | Jon Rahm | T7 | 615,786 |
| Travelers | Brian Harman | 8th | 620,000 |
| Rocket Classic | Cam Young | T46 | 27,091 |
| John Deere Classic | Denny McCarthy | T11 | 174,300 |
| Scottish Open | Robert MacIntyre | T65 | 19,800 |
| The Open Championship | Shane Lowry | T40 | 68,340 |
| 3M Open | Wyndham Clark | T12 | 186,900 |
| Wyndham Champ | Ben Griffin | T11 | 198,850 |
| FedEx St. Jude Champ | Xander Schauffele | T22 | 186,666 |
| BMW Championship | Justin Thomas | T33 | 119,666 |
LAST WEEK – BMW Championship
THE CHOICE: Justin Thomas – T33
I could have used Viktor Hovland or Patrick Cantlay here, both event champions over the last five years. Instead, I’m running out the biggest winner in the pile who won this event in Chicago in 2019. Chasing with Chris Gotterup or J.J. Spaun is desperate, but I like it.
Well, gang, Hovland would have been the better choice!
I finished the season in 22nd place and took home REAL MONEY!
Individual Standings
FINAL RESULTS
| Place | PWC | Team | Owner | Earnings | Scorecard |
| 1st |  10 | Brandon Smith  | Brandon Smith | $18,552,543 | Season |
| 2nd |  1 | Scotties Cellmates  | Scott Reese | $18,214,045 | Season |
| 3rd |  1 | Long Shank Champion   | Gary McGee | $17,454,748 | Season |
| 4th | — | Far From Par | Nick Luisi | $17,375,704 | Season |
| 5th |  2 | Josh Veith | Josh Veith | $16,976,992 | Season |
| 6th |  1 | Jesper Parnepicks | Jamie Larner | $16,965,779 | Season |
| 7th |  1 | FairwaysNGreens | Steve Duperrieu | $16,868,533 | Season |
| 8th |  1 | Dave’s Super Heroes | David Lawlor | $16,741,371 | Season |
| 9th |  1 | HKlein | Howie Klein | $15,961,935 | Season |
| 10th | — | Myers | Mike Myers | $15,507,933 | Season |
| 11th |  3 | Strikes And Gutters | Rob Carpenter | $15,315,402 | Season |
| 12th |  3 | Harmonators | Gearoid Harmon | $15,193,031 | Season |
| 13th |  3 | Sandy’s Surf Shack  | Sanford Moore | $15,009,166 | Season |
| 14th |  1 | Dcharns | Don Charnley | $14,998,476 | Season |
| 15th |  3 | Out Of Bounds/Balls | Mick McDonnell | $14,986,687 | Season |
| 16th |  3 | Avid 3 Putters | Tyler Boyd | $14,986,456 | Season |
| 17th | — | KOD | Kevin O’Dea | $14,370,779 | Season |
| 18th |  3 | Where Eagles Dare | Ian Kevan | $13,995,447 | Season |
| 19th |  1 | Swingers Club | Matt Needham | $13,959,271 | Season |
| 20th | — | D Dot Sacco | Dan Sacco | $13,656,466 | Season |
| 21st |  2 | Eye Off The Tiger | Patrick Kelly | $13,619,556 | Season |
| 22nd | — | Glassholes | Mike Glasscott | $13,298,800 | Season |
| 23rd |  1 | Bellerive Bulldog | Michael Kaiser | $13,242,928 | Season |
| 24th |  1 | Lokeness Monsters | Joshua Lokey | $13,099,780 | Season |
| 25th |  3 | A Gusta Wind | Craig Lambert | $12,784,134 | Season |
I hope you beat me!
Thanks for reading!
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