Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, Florida
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Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks
Bet365: Top of the Board
Scottie Scheffler (13/2): I’m not one to usually support favorites, but I’m making an exception this week. Cashing T4 in defense of his 2022 victory, he knows elite putting is not required this week. With 19 top-three-paydays to his name since the 2021-2022 season, place him where you feel most comfortable. He’s the first name on my ticket.
Rory McIlroy (9/1): In the last 10 days, he’s played Captial One’s The Match, four rounds at the Cognizant Classic (T21), and the Seminole Pro-Member. He wanted reps before Augusta. He’s getting reps before Augusta! A true course horse, the 2018 winner is a constant in the top 10 outside Orlando. The finish line is the Masters, not Bay Hill.
Sitting as third choice, Viktor Hovland (14/1) is still searching for his first top 10 of 2024. The Norwegian has been lurking the last two seasons at the top of the leaderboard outside Orlando. Playing in the final group last year, he shot 76 to drift to T10. The 36-hole leader in 2022 closed 75-74 for T2.
Xander Schauffele (16/1) has yet to find the key to success at Bay Hill. The West Coast wizard started hot, but he’s never cracked the code in Florida. Supporters this week will hope the third time is the first time inside the top 20.
Patrick Cantlay (16/1) adapted quickly on debut last season. Posting three rounds below par, he finished T4 after his first four loops. Cashing T4 at Riviera and T11 at Pebble Beach in his last two outings, taking that form to Florida will be necessary again.
Granted a sponsor’s exemption as an amateur as a college senior last spring, Ludvig Aberg (18/1) is now one of the favorites in a Signature Event in his first full season on TOUR. Posting nothing worse than 73, the amateur cashed T24 against one of the best fields in golf. Cashing his last three on TOUR inside the top 20, he will enjoy another ball-striking challenge this week.
Sharing fourth in his first two visits at Bay Hill, Jordan Spieth (20/1) makes his third visit in the last four years. Leading on the back nine on Sunday last year, the Texan ran out of gas at the finish line. Cashing T6 or better in his last three visits on Bermuda, his last victory was on the same surface at Harbour Town in 2022.
Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:
Max Homa (25/1): Wins at Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Riviera suggest 7,466 yards isn’t out of the question. Making his fifth start, he’s cashed T24 or better in the previous four. Invest.
Will Zalatoris (30/1): Making his fourth appearance, the former Wake Forest Deamon Deacon roars into Bay Hill after finishing second at The Genesis Challenge. The return to familiar grass should bring familiar results.
Jason Day (33/1): The red-hot Aussie bumps into my purview due to his previous history at Bay Hill. The 2016 champion, and former resident of Lake Nona ran T10 last year and rolls into town after back-to-back top-10 paydays on the West Coast Swing.
Adam Scott (50/1): Every lineup/card/ticket needs a safety dance. The Australian, a sponsor’s exemption this week, will not want to embarrass those who shoved him into the field. All aboard! Posting T20 or better in his last three on TOUR, he’s not a novelty act.
Corey Conners (55/1): Putting is not an afterthought this week, but I’ll side with the guys who will hit the most greens. Keeping it out of the water and bunkers will produce more scoring chances.
Keegan Bradley (55/1): Cashing in 11 straight at Arnold’s place, his last three here are T10-T11-T10.
Justin Rose (110/1): Formerly a resident, the Englishman has experienced plenty of reps around Bay Hill. Comfortably flying beneath the radar, let’s hope his allergies don’t get the best of him!
Taylor Moore (200/1): Defending in three weeks at Innisbrook, this is another track that requires concentration for each shot. Cashing in his last nine on TOUR, I’ll embrace this number for either a Top 20 or Top 40.
NOW PLAYING:
| Host Course | Bay Hill Club & Lodge |
| Yards (per official scorecard): | 7,466 |
| Par: | 72 (36-36). |
| Greens: | TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet. |
| Stimpmeter: | 12 feet. |
| Rough: | Overseeded Rye at three inches. |
| Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play | 85/8/9 |
| Architect(s): | Dick Wilson & Joe Lee; Arnold Palmer. |
| Defending Champion (event): | Kurt Kitayama (-9). |
| Multiple Champion(s) Entered: | None. |
| Course Record: | 64; Rory McIlroy and Keegan Bradley since the change to TifEagle in 2016. |
| 72 Hole Tournament Record | 270; Rory McIlroy 2018 after the change to TifEagle. |
| Fact of the Week: | Second of four weeks in Florida and TifEagle. |
| Fact of the Week II: | Fourth of eight Signature Events for 2024. |
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
The halfway point of the Florida Swing is also the halfway point of eight Signature Events on the 2024 calendar.
Known as one of the most difficult tests on TOUR, the Par-72, stretching 7,466 yards, nothing comes easy this week.
Ranking in the top 10 most difficult tracks used on TOUR in six of the last seven seasons, Bay Hill has not played under par since the 2016 edition, the first with brand-new TifEagle Bermuda greens. The 2020 tournament played two shots over par; the most difficult venue used during that season.
Fairways and greens are challenging targets to acquire. Arnold Palmer’s design has ranked in the top five during the last five seasons in SG: Tee to Green. Errant tee shots and approaches could find three inches of overseeded (rye) Bermuda, 84 bunkers, or water penalty areas (nine holes).
Putting the TifEagle Bermuda greens, the fourth largest on TOUR at 7,500 square feet on average, challenge matching line and speed at 12 feet on the Stimpmeter.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Debuting as host in 1979, Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club has anchored the late winter/early spring schedule on TOUR.
2023 champion Kurt Kitayama joins 1990 winner Robert Gamez as the only player to win on debut.
After changing the greens from Bentgrass to TifEagle Bermuda after the 2015 edition, international players won the next five editions.
Attaining elevated status in 2021, American players have won the last three at Bay Hill.
Winning as a 21-year-old in 1990, Robert Gamez is the youngest champion by three years.
The last four winners ranged from 26 to 30 years old. Only two of the last eight have been older than 30.
The tournament scoring record, produced in perfect scoring conditions by Rory McIlroy during the 2018 edition, is 270 (-18).
McIlroy and Keegan Bradley have posted 64, the lowest single-round total since 2016.
The field of 69, including 44 of the Official World Golf Ranking Top 50, will be cut to the top 50 and ties, plus any player within 10 shots of the lead, after 36 holes.
On the line is a purse of $20 million, with the winner taking home $4 million plus 700 FedExCup points.
Season Winners
2023 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| Sentry Tournament of Champions | Jon Rahm |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Si Woo Kim |
| The AMERICAN EXPRESS | Jon Rahm (2) |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Max Homa (2) |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Justin Rose |
| WM Phoenix Open | Scottie Scheffler |
| The Genesis Invitational | Jon Rahm (3) |
| The Honda Classic | Chris Kirk |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win) |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | Scottie Scheffler (2) |
| Valspar Championship | Taylor Moore (first TOUR win) |
| Corales Puntacana | Matt Wallace (first TOUR win) |
| WGC – Dell Technologies MP | Sam Burns |
| Valero Texas Open | Corey Conners |
| Masters | Jon Rahm (4) |
| RBC Heritage | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| Zurich Classic of New Orleans | Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each) |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Tony Finau (2) |
| Wells Fargo Championship | Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win) |
| AT&T Byron Nelson | Jason Day |
| PGA Championship | Brooks Koepka |
| Charles Schwab Challenge | Emiliano Grillo |
| Memorial | Viktor Hovland |
| RBC Canadian Open | Nick Taylor |
| U.S. Open | Wyndham Clark (2) |
| Travelers Championship | Keegan Bradley (2) |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | Rickie Fowler |
| John Deere Classic | Sepp Straka |
| Genesis Scottish Open | Rory McIlroy (2) |
| The Open Championship | Brian Harman |
| 3M Open | Lee Hodges (first TOUR win) |
| Wyndham Championship | Lucas Glover |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | Lucas Glover (2) |
| BMW Championship | Viktor Hovland (2) |
| TOUR Championship | Viktor Hovland (3) |
| Fortinet Championship | Sahith Theegala |
| Sanderson Farms Championship | Luke List |
| Shriners Children’s Open | Tom Kim |
| ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Collin Morikawa |
| World Wide Technology | Erik van Rooyen |
| Butterfield Bermuda | Camilo Villegas |
| The RSM Classic | Ludvig Aberg |
2024 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| The Sentry | Chris Kirk |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Grayson Murray |
| The American Express | Nick Dunlap (a) |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Matthieu Pavon (rookie) |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather) |
| WM Phoenix Open | Nick Taylor |
| The Genesis Invitational | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Jake Knapp (rookie) |
| Cognizant Classic | Austin Eckroat |
Recent Winners – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Italics – not entered this week.
| Year | Winner | Notes |
| 2023 | Kurt Kitayama (-9) | Overcame a triple bogey in the final round to hold off McIlroy, English, Spieth, and Scheffler. |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler (-5) | Trailing by eight after 36 holes, he won in his second appearance. |
| 2021 | Bryson DeChambeau (-11) | Held off Lee Westwood by a shot. |
| 2020 | Tyrrell Hatton (-4) | Brutal conditions. Only four players broke par. |
| 2019 | Francesco Molinari (-12) | Closed with 64 to beat Matt Fitzpatrick by two. |
| 2018 | Rory McIlroy (-18) | Closed 67-64 in perfect conditions to win by three. |
| 2017 | Marc Leishman (-11) | Won by a shot. |
| 2016 | Jason Day (-17) | First winner after the change to TifEagle greens. Soft conditions. |
One and Done
I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…
35 events.
1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).
1 use per year.
Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!
| Event | Selection | Earnings |
| The Sentry | Collin Morikawa | 690,500 |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Corey Conners | 18,592 |
| The American Express | Adam Hadwin | 310,800 |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Jason Day | 0 |
| AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am | Jordan Spieth | 70,125 |
| WM Phoenix Open | Matt Fitzpatrick | 156,200 |
| The Genesis Invitational | Max Homa | 329,000 |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Tony Finau | 145,125 |
| Cognizant Classic | Russell Henley | 32,850 |
| Total Winnings: | 1,753,192 |
Recapping Last Week – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
Another week, another choice nobody had on the radar.
We slog on.
MY CHOICE: Russell Henley – T41
Super 65 on Saturday set up a chance to move into the top five and pick up some real cash. Instead, he shot 72 and joined about a dozen players who couldn’t break par in ideal scoring conditions and dropped 30 spots.
Other to Consider:
Stephan Jaeger: Knock. Knock. Knock. T14 here last year. MC.
Eric Cole: Sure, he plays just about every week, but he didn’t last week! The Florida native can’t be outside the top three choices. Never take another week off. MC.
Shane Lowry: Never missed in six tries. T5-2nd last two years. T4. Brutal ride on Monday. Roller coaster town.
Sepp Straka: Streak is four straight. T5-WIN last two years. MC.
Keith Mitchell: If you don’t catch him this week, don’t worry, his big, bad driver might work even better at the big, bad Bay Hill layout. T9 but didn’t qualify for Bay Hill.
Rory McIlroy: You gotta do you. The angle this year is to play more to ramp it up and peak at the Masters. The Ulsterman gets many chances to get it right. We get ONE. T21.
Longshots
Daniel Berger: Making just his third start from injury, the local will have plenty of folks in his corner again if he’s in the mix on Sunday. Missed the cut.
Byeong Hun An: Not sure he’s “graduated” to the OAD level, but this field makes more sense than others. T21.
Sam Ryder: Native with two top-10 paydays in his last two visits here. Not for the faint of heart. T21.
Luke List: JT got him in a playoff back in 2018, but he’s found his way since. MC.
This Week – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kurt Kitayama showed steel nerves last year down the stretch and kickstarted the last 12 months of “Wow, that guy won?”. No offense to any of these great players, but how many of you had Clark at the U.S. Open? How about Harman at The Open? What about Glover in Memphis? Kirk at Sentry? Clark again at Pebble Beach.
Sigh.
MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler
I don’t like Pinehurst for him, not with those greens. Nobody defends at THE PLAYERS. Masters field will be intense. I’m going in this week. He knows this place well enough and he’s been in Top-10 mode recently.
Let’s go.
Others to Consider:
Rory McIlroy: I posted the stat on Twitter yesterday that showed the most top-10 paydays since 2016. He’s six from nine here. His form puts me off.
Viktor Hovland: Another who is not firing on all cylinders, the Norwegian led after 36 holes in 2022 and played in the final group last year.
Ludvig Aberg: Phased by absolutely nothing. T24 on debut last year as an amateur.
Tommy Fleetwood: The tougher, the better, and his three top-10 paydays provide the evidence.
Jason Day: Enters on back-to-back top-10s and has won here.
Sam Burns: Tough to ignore four straight in the top 10 on TOUR.
Longshots
Chris Kirk – Corey Conners – Justin Rose
Glass Houses 