The Internationals have a streak of five straight.
Could this man be next?
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Orlando, Florida
| Bay Hill | |
| Yards (per official scorecard): | 7,466 |
| Par: | 72 (36-36) |
| Greens: | TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet. |
| Stimpmeter: | 12′. |
| Rough: | 419 Bermuda over-seeded with Rye at three inches. |
| Bunkers/Water Hazards | 84/8 (water in play on nine holes). |
| Architects: | Dick Wilson (1961); Arnold Palmer (2009; 2015). |
| Course Record (last): | 62; Adam Scott (2014). |
| Purse: | $9.3 million; $1.674 million and 550 FedExCup points (winner). |
Notes:
- Field of 123.
- Top 65 and ties play the weekend.
- Last playoff was 1999!
2020-2021 Season Winners
*- First-time winner
**- First-time winner AND rookie winner
| Event | Winner |
| Safeway Open | Stewart Cink |
| 120th United States Open | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Corales Punta Cana Championship | Hudson Swafford |
| Sanderson Farms Championship | Sergio Garcia |
| Shriners Hospitals for Children | Martin Laird (playoff) |
| CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK | Jason Kokrak* |
| ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Patrick Cantlay |
| Bermuda Championship | Brian Gay |
| Vivint Houston Open | Carlos Oritz* |
| 84th Masters Tournament | Dustin Johnson |
| The RSM Classic | Robert Streb |
| Mayakoba Golf Classic | Viktor Hovland |
| Sentry TOC | Harris English |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Kevin Na |
| The American Express | Si Woo Kim |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Patrick Reed |
| Waste Management Phoenix Open | Brooks Koepka |
| AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am | Daniel Berger |
| The Genesis Invitational | Max Homa |
| WGC – Championship at The Concession | Collin Morikawa |
Check out HORSES FOR COURSES for more details and angles for this week.
Previous Winners: *Playoff
| Year | Winner | Comment | |
| 2020 | Tyrrell Hatton | -4 | Ground it out in windy conditions to win by one over Marc Leishman for TOUR win No. 1. |
| 2019 | Francesco Molinari | -12 | Bogey free 64 ate up a five shot deficit as he beat Matthew Fitzpatrick by two. |
| 2018 | Rory McIlroy | -18 | Bogey free 64 made up his two shot deficit as he won by three over Bryson DeChambeau. |
| 2017 | Marc Leishman | -11 | Trailed by three, won by a shot over Charley Hoffman and Kevin Kisner. |
| 2016 | Jason Day | -17 | Only second wire-to-wire champ. |
| 2015 | Matt Every | -19 | Defended his title on the final edition before TifEagle on the greens. |
Facts and Figures:
| Lowest Rounds – Last Year | 65; Matt Every (Round 1). 66; Rory McIlroy (Round 1). |
| Defending Champion(s) Event: | Matt Every (2014-15). |
| Multiple Champion(s) Entered: | Every. |
| First Time – TOUR: | Every. |
| First Time – Event | None since 1990. |
| Odd Fact: | Five straight international winners. |
| Odd Fact II: | Bay Hill and Riviera ranked 1-2 in toughest greens to hit in 2020. |
Quick Thoughts
Bay Hill could have weather on the weekend so look that up after you read this to make sure you’re not left wondering on Sunday afternoon.
Big greens and big targets off the fairway come with big penalties, as it should be, for missing.
Forced carries from 3 inches of overseeded rough will mess with the brains of the best. Remember, these guys prefer NOT making decisions; see ball, find yardage, swing = happiness.
Par-5 holes provide relief but it’s the Par-3 holes that need mastering. Big and strong.
Water on half of the holes will factor. Plenty of examples last week at The Concession.
Big greens = SG: Putting matters. Proximity won’t hurt.
Average winner has played around 4 times before winning so it might not be the week for the newbies.
Internationals fare well here because they are usually guys who pound it off the tee and into the greens.
Speaking of greens, Rory McIlroy had his career best putting week here in 2018. #Vibes.
Chalk – Betting favorites and my opinions on them
Rory McIlroy (+800): See above. Plus he made 26 birdies last week on a track he’s never played before. Catch him on the trend.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1200): Opened 77-64 last week. 2nd here in 2018 to McIlroy. Wild with water doesn’t help but he’s a super putter. Conflicted, again.
Viktor Hovland (+1200): Go read Rob Bolton on the Norwegian. First timers don’t do well here either. No value, pass.
Tyrrell Hatton (+1600): If Matt Every can go back-to-back, why not? Busted the rust off last week at The Concession with T22. Stick him in the top 10 and take your chances.
Sungjae Im (+2000): His last top 10 was on massive greens with windy conditions on Kapalua. He’s proven that a quality back, regardless of age, can get the job done here with 3rd and T3 in two appearances. Top 10 again.
Patrick Reed (+2000): In form and went close last week. Still working on the fade but needs no work on or around the greens. Big targets this week again should help him. So will grinding out pars. Top 5/Top 10.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2200): Yep, that’s him knocking. On TOUR. At the event. All of the above. Hits it too straight to get into much trouble and is an excellent putter. Win ticket/Top 5/Top 10. Read HFC for more.
Paul Casey (+2500): Enters on four straight T12 or better, which includes a win in Dubai. First appearance here since 2017 I find odd. Form is legit though. Top 20 just in case.
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500): Plays here annually and only has one top 10 to show for his troubles from six tries. Last four T33 or worse. Pass.
Jordan Spieth (+2800): We’ve seen the reclamation project fare well when there isn’t much water abound. That changes this week. First time at the event at this price doesn’t entice.
Francesco Molinari (+2800): Rocks here and has painted the top 10 in three of his last four on TOUR. Course horse with form? Yes, please. Top 10/Top 20.
My Long Shots and Others 33-1 or worse
Billy Horschel (+3300): My gut play for the week. He’s put in the time and his game is right there. Win ticket.
Jason Day (+3300): Part of me believes all the changes are for Augusta, not Bay Hill. Only top 10 here is a win. Pass.
Louis Oosthuizen (+3300): Play the trend (T29-T11-T6) for another top 10.
Tommy Fleetwood (+3500): Quick, name his last top 10 in the States! 12 months ago at Honda (3rd). Followed it up with MC here. Nah.
Jason Kokrak (+4000): Doesn’t mind a tough week or a tough track. Top 10/Top 20.
Will Zalatoris (+4000): T15 at Riviera suggests not much bothers him. Top 20 and enjoy. 4th SG: T2G last week.
Sam Burns (+4000): Four straight on TOUR with solo third at Genesis as the highlight. He’s 3 for 3 at Bay Hill but T39 is the best. Top 20.
Marc Leishman (+4500): Horse for course with a win, second and third here in 11 starts. Proper wind player who has been driving me crazy. I’m in. Again. Top 10/Top 20. Skinny win ticket.
Max Homa (+5000): Seven straight, six in the top 25, a win… T24 on debut last year in tough conditions. Sign me up for another top 20.
Rickie Fowler (+7000): Moving in the right direction and quietly doing so. Good combo for him. Spiritual home here as he was tight with AP and the family. Last skinny win ticket but top 20 heavy.
Lanto Griffin (+8000): Three straight T26 or better. Top 20.
Branden Grace (+8000): Handled the win last week but can he handle the emotional weight this week? I don’t think so.
Matthew NeSmith (+10000): You’ll find him in here almost every week. Tee to green and Bermuda. Top 20.
Matt Jones (+11000): 10 straight including T8 at Riviera and T4 in Bermuda. Top 10/Top 20.
JT Poston (+12500): 2 of last 3 top 25. Doesn’t mind a knock and is a super putter. Top 20.
Henrik Norlander (+12500): Tee to green feaster. Of his last five, four have cashed T26 or better including T2 at Big Torrey Pines. Top 20.
Richy Werenski (+25000): Should make the cut.
Bo Hoag (+30000): Should make the cut.
Last Week’s Recap
Was cancelled due to technical difficulties.
Seriously.
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out through Twitter (@mikeglasscott) or email me: mikeglasscott@gmail.com.
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