2019 JDC Preview and HFC

The Midwest Swing wraps up in the Quad Cities with the John Deere Classic.

Remember, Kentucky is NOT the Midwest so don’t bring that up in here. They’re in the South.

And, Deere = construction equipment while John Deere = farm equipment.

The more you know, ok?

John Deere Classic

TPC Deere Run

Silvis, Illinois

Yards (per official scorecard): 7,268
Par: 71 (35-36)
Greens: 5,500 square feet; L-93 Bentgrass.
Stimpmeter: 12 feet.
Rough:  Kentucky Bluegrass, fescue starting at 3.5 inches.
Bunkers: 78
Water Hazards: 3
Architect(s): D.A. Weibring (1998).
Purse: $6 million.

500 FedExCup Points. $1.080 million (winner).

Defending Champion: Michael Kim (257).
Notes: Best player inside of the top five (already not qualified) will take the final spot in The Open Championship.

Previous Winners:

Year Winner   Comment
       
2018 Michael Kim 257 30 birdies, 3 bogeys, won by eight; tournament record score; first TOUR win.
2017 B. DeChambeau 266 Highest winning score this decade (-18); first TOUR win as he came from four back.
2016 Ryan Moore 262 Only made two bogeys over four rounds.
2015 Jordan Spieth 264 Won for the second time in a playoff, defeating Tom Gillis.
2014 Brian Harman 262 First lefty since 1973 to win this event; first TOUR win.
2013 Jordan Spieth 265 At 19 became the youngest winner on TOUR in forever.
2012 Zach Johnson 264 One of six podiums at this event but his only victory.
2011 Steve Stricker 262 Held off Kyle Stanley by a shot to win his third consecutive JDC.
2010 Steve Stricker 258 Paul Goydos opened with 59 but Stricker won by two for his second straight title.

2018-19 Winners

Event Winner
   
Safeway Open Kevin Tway**
CIMB Classic Marc Leishman
CJ CUP @ NINE BRIDGES Brooks Koepka
Sanderson Farms Championship Cameron Champ**
WGC-HSBC Champions Xander Schauffele
Shriners Hospitals for Children Bryson DeChambeau
Mayakoba Golf Classic Matt Kuchar
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III
Hero World Challenge* Jon Rahm
Sentry TOC Xander Schauffele (2)
Sony Open in Hawaii Matt Kuchar (2)
60th Desert Classic Adam Long**
Farmers Insurance Open Justin Rose
Waste Management Rickie Fowler
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Phil Mickelson
Genesis Open J.B. Holmes
WGC-Mexico Championship Dustin Johnson
The Honda Classic Keith Mitchell**
Arnold Palmer Invitational Francesco Molinari
THE PLAYERS Rory McIlroy
Valspar Championship Paul Casey
WGC-Match Play Kevin Kisner
Corales Punta Cana Graeme McDowell
Valero Texas Open Corey Conners**
83rd Masters Tournament Tiger Woods
RBC Heritage C.T. Pan**
Zurich Classic of New Orleans Ryan Palmer & Jon Rahm (2)
Wells Fargo Championship Max Homa**
AT&T Byron Nelson Sung Kang**
PGA Championship Brooks Koepka (2)
Charles Schwab Challenge Kevin Na
Memorial Patrick Cantlay
RBC Canadian Open Rory McIlroy (2)
United States Open Gary Woodland
Travelers Championship Chez Reavie
Rocket Mortgage Classic Nate Lashley**
3M Open Matt Wolff**

(* unofficial event; **First-time winner)

 

Facts and Figures:

Tournament Record: 257; Michael Kim, 2018.
Course Record: 59; Paul Goydos, Round 1, 2010.
Defending Champions (entered): John Senden (2006), Jonathan Byrd (2007), Zach Johnson (2012), Brian Harman (2014), Ryan Moore (2016) and Michael Kim (2018).
Multiple Winners (entered) None.
First TOUR win: Four of the last six.
First Appearance (last): Sean O’Hair (2005).
Odd Fact: Goydos shot 59 here and didn’t win.
Odd Fact II: Michael Kim hasn’t made a cut in 2019 in a full-field event.
Odd Fact III: Stricker is playing the Senior Players this week instead.

The Confidence Factor was the weekly column I wrote for PGATOUR.COM. It has evolved into Horses for Courses. I’ve included the link here for you.

Thoughts

Interesting to see that the past few winners were all highly decorated college players/amateurs. Matthew Wolff stole the show last week playing the same card so it’s not ridiculous to think history will repeat.

BUT.

(There’s always a but, no?)

None of these hotshots have rolled into Silvis bumping to the Quad City DJs and WON in their first appearance. They’ve all had a chance to acclimate and figure out some of Weibring’s quirks. Also, with proven TOUR players like Johnson and Stricker lingering around, there’s not much room for error.

As was suggested last weekend, Wolff and Collin Morikawa are the real deal, and I’m not here to argue differently. But I do believe that being paired in the final group relieved a ton of stress as opposed to playing with a proven TOUR pro.

Since we as gamers cannot predict such nuances, I’m going right back with the kids this week but will absolutely NOT be surprised if a few “vets” push up the board as well.

All breaks and no gas worked last week on a track where hardly anyone had played before. While easy, this place does have some nuance that will cause more problems than TPC Twin Cities.

The Midwest has been soaked all summer and TPC Deere Run is notorious for not draining well. It should be soft and lush as temperatures into the 90s arrive and the wind is a non-factor. Bentgrass greens will be perfect, again, and will help scores remain low again this year!

As with wide-open birdie-fests, good luck. The top OWGR player is Charles Howell III (No. 55) and the top Sagarin player is No. 42 Lucas Glover.

The Chalk

Matthew Wolff: To the victor go the spoils. Any questions about his class were answered in the final round last week. This week we’ll learn about his ambition. Don’t be surprised.

Joaquin Niemann: He’s 41-under in his last three events on TOUR (T23, T5 and T5) and that includes a two-over 73 to start last week in Minnesota. The Chilean dropped four rounds in the 60s here last year, including a closing-round 65, to cash T23.

Sungjae Im: He’s 21 but you’d think he’s been on TOUR for a decade when scanning his results. He leads the TOUR in rounds in the 60s and makes birdies for breakfast.

Collin Morikawa: Yep, sounds ridiculous but other than Niemann, who’s coming next, nobody else in the field his week has been hotter. His 20-under last week was one short of a playoff so he’s not going to have to switch gears this week as that number or better will be required.

Brian Harman: Only missed cut in a run of six was 70-70 (-4) in Detroit after T8 at Travelers. Bookend rounds of 65 last week for T7 at TPC Twin Cities should have him focused in this week on a track he’s mastered prior. Six of his last 14 rounds on TOUR are 66 or better.

Wyndham Clark: Well, he survived last Sunday! His final round had more swings where the club left his hand as opposed to birdies made. He’s 39-under the last three weeks with nothing outside of T17 so he’s developing calluses that will come in handy this week.

Viktor Hovland: Notice a theme here? He closed with 64 in Detroit and 65 last week for a pair of T13 paydays. Everything is new to these young guys but not much inside the ropes has bothered them yet.

Lucas Glover: The veteran ball-striker blossomed last week as he closed 67-62 to power into the top 10 (T7). I’ll ride a hot hand on a course where putts go in!

Daniel Berger: Our friend’s course form and current form have intersected again! We tried this at Travelers but Berger didn’t see the weekend. This week, he’s coming off his best finish of the season (T15, -14) as he returns to an event where he played in the final group in 2017 before fading to T5.

Troy Merritt: The Minnesota native played like it was his U.S. Open a week after I was all over him in Detroit (MC). He closed last week 64-66-68 so I’m gamely back on board.

Mystery Men

Zach Johnson: It’s his fifth major. He’s on the board here. You should know all of this. Can he just “flip the switch” for the week? I think he can. Or rather, I think he needs to. He sits No. 141 in the FedExCup standings as of today. The desperate will play him. The pragmatic might just pass. I’m not sure he has FOUR rounds of quality to unleash. Remember 10-under gets you T35 or so this week.

Charles Howell III: Another course historian here but his summer record over the years has been dismal. He’ll make the cut but expecting anything inside the top 25 and you’re on your own.

Next Tier

Mackenzie Hughes: Trending in the right direction and played his final three rounds last year 15-under.

Martin Laird: Rolled out 8 of 10 and closed with 65 last week.

Cameron Tringale: Once the expectations start, the play usually regresses. Last week is a perfect example of this. With a previous top-10 here, I’m back on board as he is playing well and this track is familiar.

J.T. Poston: Got a taste of the final group in Detroit as he was 18-under after 54 holes. He’ll need something similar this week and will learn from his final round 73 that knocked him back to T11.

Kevin Streelman: His all-or-nothing-ness here is great. His form is better with T35 or better in seven of nine.

Kevin Tway: What a difference a year makes. In 2017 he was T12 on -13. Last year -9 was only good for T50. His string of seven straight was busted in Detroit where his 70-70 (-4) wasn’t “good” enough. Not all MC are created equal.

Vaughn Taylor: Cashed in his last six with three going for T17 or better. That’s gold this week.

Scott Brown: All six of his paydays here are inside the top 25. He has no problems making birdies and posting rounds in the 60s. Finding a round to ruin in the entire week cannot be dismissed either.

Peter Malnati: Making cuts for fun, enjoying the game again but just hasn’t turned it into a massive payday yet.

Kyle Stanley: It’s always a question of when the putter will heat up. Last three are T65, T36 and T21 so do the math.

Denny McCarthy: No. 1 putter on TOUR is 26-under the last two weeks, both resulting in top-25 checks.

Nick Taylor: Nothing better than T27 from his last five but they’ve all paid out. I’ll default to cut-makers.

Functioning Form/Long Shots/DFS/Etc.

Josh Teater: 4/5 on TOUR and the event.

Seamus Power: Posted 25-under the last two trips for T16 and T25.

Bronson Burgoon: T2 last year should catch eyes, just like his ball-striking. Posted 64 in two of his last three starts on TOUR.

Scott Langley: Every DFS lineup as this is his home event. Cashing four straight T40 or better here doesn’t hurt either.

Hank Lebioda: Metrics maven. Lashley-ian.

Talor Gooch: DFS last man.

Brice Garnett: T23 and T17 in his last two on TOUR.

Joey Garber: T29 and T7 the last two.

Bud Cauley: Yeah, I saw, 67-68-66 to close last week. He’s T12 and T8 his last two trips here.

Doc Redman: Now he should be refocused.

Tom Hoge: Ride that streak in long-shot formats.

Johnson Wagner: Flashed a 64 last week and has three top 10s in his last six here.

Roger Sloan: Yep, back for more.

Richy Werenski: 24-under from two visits (T25, T23).

Shawn Stefani: Leaping T71 to T35 to T13.

Gut Shots

Both Jones

Curtis Luck

Chase Wright

Andres Romero

Dominic Bozzelli

 

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out on Twitter (@MikeGlasscott) or email me mikeglasscott@gmail.com.

 

 

 

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