Nowhere to run to baby

Nowhere to hide

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T53	14,610
CIMB Classic	Ryan Moore	T66	12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Gary Woodland	2nd	1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Ian Poulter	21st	93,500
Sanderson Farms	Cameron Davis	MC	0
Shriners	Aaron Wise	T15	101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
The RSM Classic	J.J. Spaun	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Jon Rahm	T8	191,000
Sony Open	Marc Leishman	T3	307,200
60th Desert Classic	Andrew Putnam	T34	29,975
Farmers Insurance	Patrick Cantlay	MC	0
WMPO	Hideki Matsuyama	T15	113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jason Day	T4	334,400
Genesis Open	Justin Thomas	2nd	799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ	Xander Schauffele	T14	128,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graeme McDowell	T42	10,500
The Honda Classic	Adam Scott	MC	0
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Rickie Fowler	T40	35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship	Sergio Garcia	T22	125,000
Valspar Championship	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Corales Punta Cana	Trey Mullinax	T61	6,450
WGC-Match Play	Paul Casey	T9	167,000
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	MC	0
Masters	Rory McIlroy	T21	107,956
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	2nd	745,200
Zurich Classic	Ryan Palmer	WIN	1,051,200
Wells Fargo Championship	Phil Mickelson	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Keith Mitchell	T59	17,301
Total Events: 29	Top 10s: 8	MC: 8	$5,417,997

Last Time: AT&T Byron Nelson

Another week of dodgy weather and massively low scoring is going to make this event one for the “don’t care” pile in this format next year.

As with most shootouts that open the door for just about everyone, Trinity Forest is WORSE because the greens can’t get hot due to the probability of wind. There’s no rough and not many ways to make bogey if the wind doesn’t blow. Can’t have one questionable round here!

My Choice: Keith Mitchell – T59

Opened with 66 and added another 66 on Saturday but Friday and Sunday added up to 3-over. That’s hardly any good when 20-something under is the winning score.

Safety Dancing: In Order

Marc Leishman: WD with a bulging disc in his back according to his social media. Nothing safe about that pick!

Ryan Palmer: Four rounds at par or better (-9) was good for exactly T43 this week. The top 42 players were 10-under or lower. This will be an impossible event to handicap moving forward.

Branden Grace: T63 as his 2019 pushes farther and farther away from solo second at TPC Scottsdale.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Sungjae Im: DFL MDF 83rd.

Rafa Cabrera Bello: T53 with all four rounds under par.

Scott Piercy: T2 as he closed 63-64 for his best finish since winning the Zurich Classic with Billy Horschel. That’s top 10 No. 6 on the year as well.

Thomas Pieters: T23 for those who needed a limb to go out on.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Aaron Wise: T43 as the first-time defending champion rule was followed.

Scott Scheffler: Probably thought he was back on the Web.com as his 10-under was good for T35. More guys on this TOUR than that Tour that can post numbers.

Henrik Stenson: A very solid T20 but when selecting Stenson, that’s not the aim.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Brooks Koepka: Solo fourth because 20-under wasn’t enough.

Six Beers In: 

Brian Harman – MC, Wyndham Clark – MC, Seamus Power – T79

Might have to hit the Colorado Magic Mushrooms as the beer isn’t doing it recently!

 

This Week

If you like to read about trends, stats and the players I have rated, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

Bethpage Black is a bad dude.

Add in the less-than-optimal weather conditions, plus wet rough and almost 7,500 yards at Par-70, and we’ve got a test on our hands.

I don’t think so.

I think this is one of the easier majors to handicap because there’s no way to fake it tee-to-green here for four days.

None.

The rough is just nasty enough.

The bunkers are YUUUGE, deep and perfectly placed.

The greens are where the stress ends but not finding them in regulation isn’t going to help.

Power players who can find GIR will have more opportunities to make par and move on.

Nothing wrong with surviving and advancing!

My Choice: Brooks Koepka

He’s not concerned with any history so I won’t be either. He believes the majors are the easiest to win according to his presser earlier in the week so I’m not concerned about his mindset. He’s won or finished second in three of the last four majors. This isn’t hard.

Safety Dancing:

Tiger Woods: If the U.S. Open wasn’t at Pebble Beach, a course he knows better than Bethpage Black, the roles would have been reversed at the top. Woods hasn’t played since the Masters and should be fresh and ready to go. He’s not 20-something, rather 40-something, and asking him to win back-to-back is something that I don’t have the stones to do.

Dustin Johnson: If your angle is Pebble Beach, Royal Portrush or the FedExCup Playoffs, I’m not stopping you either.

Justin Rose: All the tricks in the bag plus his MC at the Masters should have him more than hungry for another chance.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Francesco Molinari: It wasn’t surprising to me that he crashed out at RBC Heritage after THAT happened at Augusta. Time to pick up the pieces and move on. His last three majors he’s cashed T5 at Augusta, T6 at Bellerive and first place at The Open playing with Woods on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy: Quick: Name the last time he won a major! Time’s up! 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla. It’s not Par-72 so if you’re saving him, save him for The Open, his home game, in an event where he’s rattled off Win, T5, T4 and T2 in his last four.

Xander Schauffele: He’s knocking on the door of greatness and all that is missing is the door opening on a Sunday of a major championship. He’s played in eight of these and made seven cuts. Four have gone for top-10 paydays including T2, T2 and T6 in three of the last four.

Rickie Fowler: The redemption for 2016 is built-in and an easy narrative to embrace. Winning a FedExCup event probably doesn’t come with the pressure of closing out major No. 1. Fowler should be embraced by the crowd, unless it’s Tiger down the stretch, and has been in this spot before.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Gary Woodland: Winning the first one is tough but he had a front-row seat last August to watch Woods on Sunday.

Paul Casey: Another 40-something that knows how to get the ball from tee-to-green, the Englishman won’t have to rely on making a ton of putts this week.

Hideki Matsuyama: Stick another prototype putter in the bag! Hell, use your umbrella! Make a putt! Wonderful ball-striker should be looking at plenty of GIR this week.

Patrick Cantlay: I like the Poa angle and he’s relentless tee-to-green.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Phil Mickelson: I get that NYC loves him but he’s a bit out to sea for me right now. He plays great at TPC Southwind and most of you won’t remember that.

Jordan Spieth: I think a top 25 is very possible but I’ll take my chances at Royal Portrush or down the road when he’s playing more consistently. Oh, and he’s playing for the career grand slam.

Six Beers In: 

Scott Piercy, Jim Furyk, Jhonattan Vegas

 

History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
Ft. Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Dell Technologies	Marc Leishman	T21	100,800
BMW Championship	Gary Woodland	T12	189,000
TOUR Championship	Justin Thomas	T7	279,900
Total Events: 47	Top 10s: 15	MC: 7	$10,967,909

 

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!