2018-19 Player Forecast

Happy New Year!

As you know, this is a labor of love, nothing more, nothing less.

Please accept it for what it’s worth.

No fantasy player in his right mind should ever decide on a pick from where he’s ranked on a list.

Here’s the information. Do with it what you like.

Reach out mikeglasscott@gmail.com with any questions.

PART I is below!

2018-19 Fantasy FORECAST

Based on the 2018-19 Priority Rankings at PGATOUR.COM, I’ve listed my thoughts on each player for today and tomorrow.

You’ll probably curious who will qualify for the majors so bookmark this column as well.

The categories below are pretty self-explanatory in nature. Please use CTRL-F to find a specific guy or patiently wade thru the data.

The “rankings” below are NOT in any order outside the title of the category.

I don’t know what separates the 39th player from the 43rd so I’ve evaluated them all.

Last year (2018) the following players did NOT win on TOUR:

Tony Finau

Rickie Fowler

Jordan Spieth

Patrick Cantlay

Alex Noren

Tyrrell Hatton

Sergio Garcia

Louis Oosthuizen

Henrik Stenson

Cameron Smith

Hideki Matsuyama

Rafa Cabrera-Bello

And that is just from the top 30 players in the world rankings.

This isn’t easy, nor should it be!

Whatever questions I don’t answer, you are welcome to reach out to me at mikeglasscott@gmail.com with specific comments, questions or thoughts.

 

Top 125: Final FedExCup Points 2017-18

  • Fully exempt for 2018-19;
  • Order is by FEC regular season finish;
  • OWGR ranking from mid-December;

 

1      Dustin Johnson

  • Sagarin: 1
  • OWGR: 3

With 10 wins in his last 63 starts he’s a must-have in any weekly lineup and season-long game. In the last five years he’s never finished outside of the top 10 in scoring or Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green. 2018 saw his best year on the greens and if that continues to improve, look out! There might be a couple who will have a better year but there will not be many. He cashed for $7.8 million last year, his worst haul in the last three years, and still finished on top.

 

2      Justin Thomas      

  • Sagarin: 3
  • OWGR: 4

He’s picked up eight wins in his last 50 starts and won almost $19 million in that stretch. Almost half of those starts (22) have resulted in top-10 paydays and only eight have resulted in an early weekend checkout. The only downside of this massive run-of-form is he’ll probably continue to trim his events played again this year (30-28-25-23). He’s finished third in scoring the last two years and I’m not expecting any kind of regression this year.

 

3      Brooks Koepka             

  • Sagarin: 7
  • OWGR: 1

When the complaint is he doesn’t win enough REGULAR EVENTS, that should be a clue that this is a bad man. His two wins last year were majors and three of his five career victories are from that same category but he’s already picked up a “normal” win this year at the CJ Cup @ NINE BRIDGES. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 25 in scoring or Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green in the last five seasons. It’s natural to assume that he’s not going to win two majors again this season but I’d expect more week-to-week contending as he takes that next step.

 

4      Justin Rose   

  • Sagarin: 2
  • OWGR: 2

It was his best season money-wise ($8.1 million) since 2015 when he cashed almost $5.5 million. It was also his first multi-win season since 2010 so he showed no signs of slowing down at age 38. He hasn’t put up over 20 starts since 2011 but he throws up top-10 finishes worldwide for fun. He’s the perfect fantasy player: mature, settled, scheduled and a winner. Except he’s putting a brand-new set of CLUBS in his bag. That’s a major issue for me as I’ve seen too many premium players (Tiger, Rory, PXG dudes) need time to settle in. Caddie Mark Fulcher has been on Twitter saying the clubs are magnificent and sees no issue. Big decision in every year-long format.

 

5      Bubba Watson              

  • Sagarin: 39
  • OWGR: 17

The last two years were interesting to say the least. 2017 saw his worst haul since his rookie campaign while last season saw him explode for three wins. I believe somewhere in the middle is the answer so be careful. I remember when he was going to retire when he achieved 10 wins; he has 12. Motivation is always an interesting mistress in this relationship but at least gamers are aware of his favorite tracks. It didn’t hurt that he returned to Titleist either. I’m not overpaying in season-long formats but he’ll get run where he’s comfortable (Riviera, TPC Scottsdale, Augusta, TPC River Highlands).

 

6      Jason Day     

  • Sagarin: 13
  • OWGR: 14

Child No. 3 has arrived, his health is excellent and the Presidents Cup is returning to his native Australia. The stars have aligned and we’ll see if takes advantage entering his prime at age 31. He’s finished the regular season inside the top 10 in the FedExCup in four of the last five years.

 

7      Webb Simpson

  • Sagarin: 10
  • OWGR: 21

After welcoming daughter Eden in December he now has as many children (five) as victories on TOUR. I’ll be interested to see if Simpson can continue his excellence 2018 form in calendar 2019. The key to his success was his white-hot putter that checked in No. 7 in the Strokes-Gained category. He checked in at No. 5 in scoring, his first time inside the top 20 in five years. I think he makes an excellent shotgun rider as opposed to an anchor for the rest of 2019. He only has two wins since 2013.

 

8      Francesco Molinari              

  • Sagarin: 17
  • OWGR: 7

Great news for gamers over the holidays as it was reported that the Italian would be spending the majority of his time on TOUR this season. The jet-setting lifestyle didn’t seem to bother him much during his historic season last year but the absence of it in 2019 could make his game even sharper. Also, gamers might be rewarded with a couple more events if the travel overseas is reduced.  His career-year performance at 36 isn’t surprising but following it on with another banger would be.

 

9      Bryson DeChambeau          

  • Sagarin: 8
  • OWGR: 5

Psst: Come here.

No, come closer.

He won four times in 2018 to Molinari’s three. He won $8.1 million to Molinari’s $5.1 million. He’s already won (Shriners) in the new season and three times in his last six worldwide. He’s 25. Asking him to rack out another $6.5 million or so to match last year doesn’t sound ridiculous after his explosion last season. Love him or hate him, he’s figured out this level exceptionally quick. I don’t see any pyrite here.

 

10    Patrick Reed

  • Sagarin: 20
  • OWGR: 15

I’m down with the “me against the world” angle as it’s hardly anything new with Masters champion. He’s never been embraced and he’s fine with that and so am I. His worst season in five is $3 million and change but his real value is he plays a ton comparable to other premium players. Similar to Rose, he has no problem globetrotting and picking up results. He’ll play on the European Tour again this year but that’s nothing new.

11    Phil Mickelson

  • Sagarin: 26
  • OWGR: 32

He picked up his first win since the 2013 Open Championship at WGC-Mexico Championships and added five other top-10 paydays proving again he’s the exception, not the rule, for the player in his late 40’s. He’ll turn 49 at Pebble Beach and if his putter continues to fire, he’ll continue to cash. There are must-play events for weekly gamers but a season-long commitment will take patience and understanding. He has one victory in his last 109 TOUR events.

 

12    Tony Finau

  • Sagarin: 4
  • OWGR: 10

Inject him directly into my veins. Dude hit the top 10 at Augusta after dislocating his ankle! He doesn’t win enough for some but I’m more than happy to pile on now instead of trying to follow on a multi-win season that could happen this year. He’s a no-brainer again this season but it’s time to turn those seconds into firsts. Reminds me of Kisner from a few years ago, knock, knock, knock, BOOM.

 

13    Jon Rahm

  • Sagarin: 16
  • OWGR: 6

He’s collected 16 top-10 finishes in his last 44 TOUR starts and that includes two wins and a Hero Challenge title. He’s 24, violent tee-to-green and is a great value at just under $4 million. I’d expect a “bounce-back” and something similar to his 2017 where he bankrolled over $6 million.

 

14    Patrick Cantlay

  • Sagarin: 11
  • OWGR: 18

Up, up and away! When healthy, he’s demonstrated that he’s extremely comfortable at this level. He’s cashed in the top 10 a whopping 13 times in his last 39 TOUR starts. He has three podiums against two MC in that stretch as well. 2018 was the first time he’s played a full professional season (23 events) so I’d expect bigger and better things the second time around.

 

15    Patton Kizzire

  • Sagarin: 169
  • OWGR: 101

The upside is he has two wins and two seconds over the last three seasons (84 events) on TOUR. The downside is he’s checked out early in 32 of those tries. His best scoring season in three is 86th so the devil is in the details. At 32 and exempt for the next three years I could see him enjoying the ride, rather than the grind. I don’t think he’ll win twice this season if that’s what you’re asking. Easy fade.

 

16    Paul Casey

  • Sagarin: 14
  • OWGR: 22

Four seasons running of $3.4 million or better includes his first win (Valspar) since 2009 suggests the 41-year old isn’t slowing down. He only played 20 times on TOUR last year as he was securing his place on Thomas Bjorn’s Ryder Cup squad with events in Europe. He’ll be back to normal and that should mean another season inside the top 16 in scoring and top 18 inside the FedExCup standings. His ball-striking is always the key and he hasn’t finished outside of the top 30 in Stokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green in the last five seasons. Fantastic top-tier support staff!

 

17    Rickie Fowler

  • Sagarin: 6
  • OWGR: 9

Hang on with both hands! The trend suggests the pendulum should swing back to career-high elevations as he’s been on the every-other-year plan. There are not many weaknesses in his bag and that’s the annual temptation here. He racks up plenty of top-10 paydays and doesn’t miss many cuts so make sure you back him with another premium player for season-long games.

 

18    Kyle Stanley

  • Sagarin: 44
  • OWGR: 33

An absolute machine tee-to-green, Stanley has put together two consecutive seasons of excellence. Of his last 55 starts, 25 have cashed inside the top 25 and he has only 12 MC. At 31 he’s comfortable in his own skin and doesn’t make any waves. Let’s not confuse boring with effective.

 

19    Kevin Na

  • Sagarin: 72
  • OWGR: 46

He’s played East Lake four of the last five seasons and added his name to the list of DROUGHT BREAKERS in calendar 2018. Na picked up his first win since 2011 at Greenbrier and racked out a career-best $3.5 million. Never long his premium short game makes up the difference and has kept him in the top 41 in scoring the last five seasons. I usually don’t like the follow-on after a career-best campaign but he always plays over 25 events a year and won’t have to grind on winning “again”. #Freedom.

 

20    Tiger Woods

  • Sagarin: 5
  • OWGR: 13

Shove them in.

All of them.

It will be interesting to see how he handles the two “new” WGC (Mexico, Memphis) events but his track record at Augusta, Pebble Beach and his other favorites won’t be any scrutiny.

 

21    Rory McIlroy

  • Sagarin: 15
  • OWGR: 8

Every year we say “this is the year”. One of these years we’re going to be “right”. He’s picked up a trophy in seven of the last nine seasons but hasn’t claimed a major since the 2014 PGA Championship. Royal Portrush will provide him a massive advantage for this summer’s Open Championship. He’s easily a top-10 selection regardless of format.

 

22    Marc Leishman

  • Sagarin: 23
  • OWGR: 20

He followed up a two-win season in 2017 with two seconds in 2018. 2019 started with a win at the soon-to-be defunct CIMB Classic and T2 at the ISPS World Cup representing Australia. I’m not jumping off now as it is clear to me that he has no problem running with the big dawgs.

 

23    Tommy Fleetwood

  • Sagarin: 9
  • OWGR: 12

It was ridiculous to watch him cash 16 top-25 checks in 19 starts in his first full season on TOUR. Toss in the pressure of the Ryder Cup, his amazing final round at Shinnecock Hills and amazing Ryder Cup performance and I’m having a problem finding the downside. Excellent through all 14 clubs as well.

 

24    Chesson Hadley

  • Sagarin: 102
  • OWGR: 66

This will be an interesting call for even the crustiest of gamers. Hadley had seven top-10 finishes entering last season before matching that total over 30 events. He didn’t win but cashed two podiums against only seven MC that suggests he learned his Web.com lesson from 2017. This will be full season No. 4 on TOUR and he should be in the top 75 come the FedExCup Playoffs.

 

 

25    Pat Perez

  • Sagarin: 88
  • OWGR: 62

With a win in each of the last two seasons the new (September) daddy is playing his best golf in his early 40’s. In four events in the new season he’s already picked up a pair of top-10 checks to keep his momentum going. Cashing 23 top 25’s in his last 53 starts doesn’t suggest he’s regressing!

 

26    Andrew Landry

  • Sagarin: 153
  • OWGR: 104

If you like #Winners, Landry has won a pro event in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018. He also lost in a playoff to Rahm last year in the desert. Now, let’s also remember that he was 116th in scoring over 18 events in 2016 and 125th last year over 27 events. I’d stick him with a couple of sure things and enjoy any gravy that comes with it. He’ll defend at Valero later this season.

 

27    Aaron Wise

  • Sagarin: 80
  • OWGR: 51

These young kids don’t seem to be affected by missing cuts so I’m not going to read into those numbers. I prefer the 10 top-25 paydays and the five top-10’s. I always find it interesting to see who wins on a brand-new track and he did just that, defeating Leishman heads-up at Trinity Forest. Similar to Landry, he’s a winner that’s won at every level over the last four years. #Winners.

 

28    Xander Schauffele

  • Sagarin: 33
  • OWGR: 11

He’s answered every question in two years for me. Seems to be on a different level mentally while possessing all of the physical tools. I’m done doubting. Move him up.

 

29    Luke List

  • Sagarin: 62
  • OWGR: 56

At 33 he should be able to continue his upward traj after the last two seasons. The big-hitter has no problem getting it out there or finding putting surfaces but he’ll have to sort out the putter to make the jump. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll play around 27 or more times either.

 

30    Brandt Snedeker

  • Sagarin: 83
  • OWGR: 50

Just when I think he’s turned the corner after his 59 and victory at Wyndham, his back flares up. Just when I think he’s back he didn’t convert a three-shot lead to open the new season at Safeway. There wasn’t an injury issue, so I guess that’s the good news. The bad news is the injury bug follows him around closely. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt as his nine wins trumps my nervousness.

31    Austin Cook

  • Sagarin: 64
  • OWGR: 112

His first season on TOUR saw him cash in 24 of 29 events and pick up his first win at The RSM Classic. It would be natural to fade him but making that many cuts is hardly a fluke. Neither is painting fairways and holing putts and those are his strengths. This is a bit turtle-and-hare this but I’ll take steady spaghetti.

 

32    Brian Harman       

  • Sagarin: 75
  • OWGR: 53

It wasn’t surprising that he didn’t back up his career-best (No. 11) in 2017 but finishing the regular season at No. 32 the following year is hardly rubbish. Harman reduced his events from 30 to 25 so that could be a factor in the reduced cash.

 

33    Gary Woodland

  • Sagarin: 21
  • OWGR: 31

Fantastic ball-striking will cash more when the putter makes more appearances. He’s never cashed less than 2.5 or made more than 3.1 over the last five years so there’s not much risk. Safe.

 

34    Ian Poulter

  • Sagarin: 37
  • OWGR: 39

Career-year at 42 included his first win since 2012 and it was hardly a surprise it was leading up to the Ryder Cup. He’s never missed more than four cuts in a season so I wouldn’t expect that to change and if he’s healthy, another top 75 finish should be attainable.

 

35    Andrew Putnam

  • Sagarin: 52
  • OWGR: 70

Different player than he was during his maiden voyage in 2015. Cashing in 21 of 28 starts plus his first win at Barracuda should fill him full of confidence for the new year. The evidence was shown as he collected T4 at his first WGC event in Shanghai. He was 65th in scoring and that should serve him well moving forward as that does not suggest smoke nor mirrors.

 

36    Chez Reavie

  • Sagarin: 108
  • OWGR: 64

Just completed his third season running on the up in both cash and FedExCup points. At 37 he continues to paint fairways (top 10 last three seasons) and play plenty of events (28, 28 and 27). He knows his way around TOUR and almost won twice last year.

 

37    Ryan Armour

  • Sagarin: 90
  • OWGR: 114

His win at the 2017 SFC gives him a ticket to ride this year and next so he’ll be under zero pressure. Similar to Reavie, he’s been first or second in fairways the last two years. Unlike Reavie, he hasn’t cracked the top 80 in scoring over that time frame. Gulp.

 

38    Brendan Steele

  • Sagarin: 147
  • OWGR: 108

After beginning last season defending his Safeway Open title, it’s easy street for the Californian for the next three years. Last year was the first in five where he fell out of the top 85 in scoring. You can do the math.

 

39    Alex Noren

  • Sagarin: 19
  • OWGR: 19

See: Fleetwood, Tommy.

 

40    Kevin Kisner

  • Sagarin: 112
  • OWGR: 37

Super putter and lover of Bermuda, Kisner is coming off his worst season in four even with two runner-up finishes. His top 10 and top 25 counts were at the lowest while his MC were the most over that stretch. Only 34, the turnaround shouldn’t be a ridiculous expectation. Gamers will hope the lure of a Presidents Cup place will help get him back on track.

 

41    Billy Horschel

  • Sagarin: 42
  • OWGR: 36

Tremendously bullish on Billy moving forward as his personal life has settled down and the results followed last year. The bounce-back finish after the dire start was noticed. His FedExCup Playoff performance showed me that a full season is no longer the exception but the rule. Nobody has ever wondered about his talent.

 

42    Beau Hossler

  • Sagarin: 47
  • OWGR: 88

In 28 starts he cashed 24 times in his first full season on TOUR. He should have had his first win in Houston but Poulter put him to the sword in a playoff. Hossler made a habit of lingering thru the weekend but running out of gas on Sundays. I’d expect a big jump this year as his closing improves. Surely a win as well as his pedigree would suggest. He’s an elite putter and that never hurts.

 

43    Jordan Spieth

  • Sagarin: 34
  • OWGR: 16

Bachelor life is over. Wedding planning is over. Wedding is over. Now, it’s back to golf. Last season was his worst as a professional (18th in scoring) as his best finishes were third, twice, in consecutive starts in Houston and Augusta. He’s automatic in any season-long salary cap game for my money as he and his putter should return to “normal”. His worst season as a pro saw him finish 18th in scoring. Read that again.

 

44    Byeong-Hun An (Ben An)

  • Sagarin: 22
  • OWGR: 52

Year three on TOUR should see him kick down the doors that have been keeping him out. He jumped from 90th to 29th in scoring last year because his tee-to-green game is beyond solid and he wasn’t playing courses for the first time. Don’t expect every putt to go in as that’s not his strength and don’t expect him to miss too many weekends either.

 

45    Emiliano Grillo

  • Sagarin: 18
  • OWGR: 48

Nice bounce-back season for the Argentine in season three as he bagged 22 of 25 paydays for the second time in three years. He set a career high with six top-10 paydays and tied his most top-25 finishes with 10. As gamers know, getting into those positions more often usually lead to more chances winning down the road. His putting numbers jumped from No. 139 to No. 12 last year so I’m interested to see if that continues.

 

46    Si Woo Kim

  • Sagarin: 77
  • OWGR: 60

THE PLAYERS champ will be exempt for the foreseeable future so good luck jumping on the week were he goes nuts and wins. Or gets beat in a playoff. The good news is you’ll get 30 or more chances to have your heart broken or to cash a monster. Loyal readers will know I have no idea which week this will or will not happen. Shut up. I do know he’s never cashed less than $2 million in any of his three full seasons.

 

47    Charles Howell III

  • Sagarin: 29
  • OWGR: 59

Any doubt about the coming season went out the window with his win at The RSM Classic to close out the 2018 portion of the schedule. The good news for gamers is he’s also a threat at Sony, Torrey Pines, Riviera and just about everywhere before June 1. Gamers who believe will keep their fingers crossed that he keeps his usual busy schedule (25 or more starts in four of the last five years). They’ll also hope that the dam has broken and more wins follow!

 

48    Brian Gay

  • Sagarin: 56
  • OWGR: 142

The good news for the 47-year old is that he racked out a whopping THIRTY starts last season so injuries surely aren’t a concern. He also had his first $2 million season since 2009 and did so with only one podium (solo third). The pros will point out that guys this late in their careers usually don’t keep up such a pace but there is a place for straight knockers and great putters.

 

49    Keegan Bradley

  • Sagarin: 24
  • OWGR: 30

When in doubt, I’d ride with a major champion who absolutely pounds it tee-to-green. Young guys are great, but Bradley has come full circle at 32 after his win in the FedExCup Playoffs. Now with a win under his belt, I’m excited to see if he can crank it up another level. I’m betting he does.

 

50    Henrik Stenson

  • Sagarin: 12
  • OWGR: 25

The good news is his ball-striking annually is in the top five on TOUR and that leads to plenty of opportunities to cash nice checks. The downside is he’ll only play around 15 times and he’s been nagged by injuries the last few years. He’s the perfect compliment as a No. 2 or 3 behind a proper lead dog in season-long formats.

51    J.J. Spaun

  • Sagarin: 92
  • OWGR: 111

The SoCal resident thrives from tee-to-green as he has been in the top 50 in both fairways and greens the last two seasons, his first two, on TOUR. Gamers will hope he grows into his chipping and putting as he grows into life on TOUR. He’ll miss a few cuts (19 of 62 as a pro) but he’s also cashed nine top-10 checks over that span. He’s a previous winner in Canada (2015) and Web.com (2016) so we’re not having to break any new ground here.

 

52    Zach Johnson

  • Sagarin: 30
  • OWGR: 65

He didn’t part ways with Damon Green because he was happy with his results over the last few years. Brett Waldman moves to his bag as the 42-year old Johnson looks to return to the winner’s circle for the first time since the 2015 Open Championship at St. Andrews. We’ll see if his magic at Bay Hill, Colonial and TPC Deere Run returns! If I’m forced to choose, I’m going to sit this out as these two get acquainted.

 

53    Cameron Smith

  • Sagarin: 50
  • OWGR: 28

The young Aussie made the leap last year and did so without a win. He doubled his top-25’s and bested his top-10’s from four to seven while only suffering six MC. He’s now cashed 12 top 10’s in his last 53 starts and that’s solid. His bread is buttered on and around the greens and that usually travels.

 

54    Scott Piercy

  • Sagarin: 104
  • OWGR: 151

Made a huge jump in fairways and greens last year while his putting continued to deteriorate. Gamers will point out he won last year with Billy Horschel at Zurich. I’ll point out he had ONE other top 10 in 25 other starts. The upside is he closed out 2018 with T5, T10 and T6 in five events so he’s figured something out. I’d expect another top 75 finish this season easy with this head-start.

 

55    Ryan Moore

  • Sagarin: 54
  • OWGR: 80

Doesn’t find much trouble off the tee and that annually translates into steady returns.. Gamers will hope his T2 in the season opener isn’t the zenith for 2018-19. It’s just his second podium in his last 51 starts. The upside is he has not finished outside the top 60 in the last five seasons and never cashed for less than a million in a decade. That’s value for some.

 

56    Rafa Cabrera Bello

  • Sagarin: 36
  • OWGR: 29

His top-10’s outpace his missed cuts (13 to 9) over his last 52 starts on TOUR but he’s never cashed a win or a second. I have a feeling that’s going to change this season regardless of his jet-setting schedule.

 

57    Whee Kim

  • Sagarin: 237
  • OWGR: 132

Wonderfully all-or-nothing, the excellent putter has never cracked the top 100 in scoring. Checking his tee-to-green numbers will provide the answer to that question. I’ll use him as support staff in deep, season-long leagues and be very patient or not at all.

 

58    Stewart  Cink

  • Sagarin: 86
  • OWGR: 86

His best finishes were recorded between June 1 and August 10 with not much else of note surrounding. Two of those events, FESJC (T4, T10 last two years) and QLN (T23) are no longer on the regular schedule while Bellerive (T4) won’t host the PGA Championship again. Not much to buy here.

 

59    Chris Kirk

  • Sagarin: 43
  • OWGR: 164

This is season No. 9 for the 32-year old and will be the second without PXG clubs. His numbers were moving in the proper direction after returning to more familiar arrows in his quiver. His worst haul in the last eight seasons is $1.2 million so I’d expect another bump towards $3 million. His first events of the new season haven’t backed that assumption but he enjoys Waialae.

 

60    Ted Potter, Jr.

  • Sagarin: 144
  • OWGR: 120

Yeah, no as he has more cuts missed than made. Probably needs a look at Harbour Town and Pebble but probably not many others. His other TOUR win is at Greenbrier, which is not on the schedule this year.

 

61    Jimmy Walker

  • Sagarin: 63
  • OWGR: 87

After two seasons of learning how to deal and live with Lyme’s disease, Walker showed even more improvement last time out. I doubt we’ll see another rash of MCs on the West Coast Swing unless he has a medical setback. He’s never hid from his love for the early part of the TOUR season and his affinity for Texas is also a bonus. I’m moving him up.

 

62    Jason Kokrak

  • Sagarin: 98
  • OWGR: 128

I always keep an eye on the guys that Steve Elkington is working with as they keep popping up on leaderboards. Kokrak has never finished outside the top 100 nor cracked the top 60 as No. 62, his finish last year, was his best-ever result. He’s played 28 or more events the last four years and isn’t afraid of the grind. Green light.

 

63    C.T. Pan

  • Sagarin: 68
  • OWGR: 99

Every dollar in every format. He had a sniff last year at Wyndham late and did so with his wife on the bag. If that doesn’t show balance and inner peace, I’m not sure what other proof is needed. He was 13th in fairways and ninth in GIR so I’ll take any uptick in his putting numbers. He’ll give you plenty of chances after 30 starts last year and 29 in 2017.

 

64    Matt Kuchar

  • Sagarin: 35
  • OWGR: 34

I’m glad I didn’t write this before October. I’d would have recommended not overpaying for him but that he’s clearly more valuable than what he showed last season. And he won. Now comes the fun part for gamers: Does his win push him on or is it the exception to the rule? He’ll have to rely on his short game if his tee-to-green game continues to struggle.

 

65    Joel Dahmen 

  • Sagarin: 100
  • OWGR: 206

Top 50 ball-striking numbers will keep him around leaderboards but the tradeoff is his putting numbers in the 160’s. His first full season saw him cash 11 top-25 checks from 28 starts. He’s 31 and that should help as well for another top 75 finish.

 

66    Michael Kim

  • Sagarin: 450
  • OWGR: 282

His win at JDC, his only top 10, will overshadow his 17 MC from 27 starts. Those 17 MC were one more than he had in 57 starts the two previous seasons. His win last summer didn’t kick him on as his best result after was T35.

 

67    Kevin Streelman

  • Sagarin: 137
  • OWGR: 186

Monster stat season last year as he checked inside the top 50 in plenty of categories, including scoring. He improved in every major category with the exception of putting. If I was impressed with Pan’s numbers I need to point out Streelman’s fairways and GIR were BETTER (12 and 4, respectively).I’d expect another top 75 finish status for the fifth time in six seasons. Safe, solid and steady isn’t terrible in fantasy land.

 

68    Keith Mitchell

  • Sagarin: 85
  • OWGR: 150

I’ll point out he’s never won on any TOUR but that doesn’t discount cashing 21 times from 29 starts as a rookie. His four top-10’s were at Houston (not on the schedule), Corrales Puntacana (opposite field), Trinity Forest (brand-new event) and John Deere Classic (week before The Open). He’s a monster off the tee but he was 108th in scoring. Chicks dig the long ball and so do most gamers. Be prepared for the lows that come with No. 185 in Strokes-Gained: Putting.

 

69    J.B. Holmes

  • Sagarin: 69
  • OWGR: 97

I’ve never been a fan as he’s impossible to read week-to-week. Disciplined gamers will embrace the roller coaster ride and point out that he’s not finished worse than No. 82 in the FedExCup regular season the last five years.

 

70    Adam Hadwin

  • Sagarin: 32
  • OWGR: 69

After racking out $3.5 million and making the Presidents Cup team, it’s hardly a surprise the Canadian regressed last season. His regression was measured in cash as he didn’t have a win or runner-up finish as he did the year before.  He’s played four times in the new season and has two top-10’s after only have three last year. Back inside the top 50 for me.

71    Brice Garnett

  • Sagarin: 138
  • OWGR: 127

Playing with house money this year and next after his win in the Dominican Republic last March. He was No. 116 in scoring over 30 events last seaon.

 

72    Kelly Kraft     

  • Sagarin: 300
  • OWGR: 209

There’s not much in between his annual big finish! His last two years on TOUR he’s checked in at No. 155 (2017) and No. 148 (2018) in scoring but ended the year No. 58 (2017) and No. 72 (2018) in the FedExCup standings. He’s MC 27 in his last 58 entering the new season. #Magician.

 

73    Adam Scott

  • Sagarin: 31
  • OWGR: 41

I saw all I needed to see at the PGA Championship. I don’t care who his caddy is or will be. This is free money if using 2018 salary as “value”.

 

74    Louis Oosthuizen

  • Sagarin: 25
  • OWGR: 26

As usual he finished his calendar year by raking in free cash in his native South Africa. He’ll arrive in 2019 with four top-seven finishes in his last five worldwide. He’s 31st or better in scoring the last four years and his pedigree should end any other discussions.

 

 

75    Troy Merritt

  • Sagarin: 101
  • OWGR: 187

He begins year No. 8 on TOUR and already has picked up a top-10 payday at Safeway. His two wins were on brand-new tracks so he’ll be in the mix in Detroit, Minneapolis, Hamilton (Ontario) and if he decides to play Trinity Forest (his first time). He’s exempt for next year already after winning at Keene Trace last July. Last five years outside the top 100 in scoring plus double-digit MC every full season.

 

76    Hideki Matsuyama

  • Sagarin:46
  • OWGR: 27

He should be healthy in 2019. He shouldn’t ever finish outside of the top 30 unless his arms fall off. The only question for me is health but I’m not letting that get in the way of missing only four cuts the last two years. #Machine.

 

77    Satoshi Kodaira

  • Sagarin: 283
  • OWGR: 47

It’s amazing what one victory can do. The 29-year old missed 10 of 18 cuts in his debut season and only added one additional top-25 result. He knows he has two years to acclimate to TOUR life and life in the states in general. His last top 10 after his upset, playoff victory over Si Woo Kim at Harbour Town was in the middle of December at the JT Cup. Of course he also won that event. Outside of his driver, he was ranked 180 or better in every other category. It will take a leap of faith here.

78    Kevin Chappell

  • Sagarin: 96
  • OWGR: 72

A back injury that caught up with him at Match Play and a new coach halfway through the season points to the reasons why Chappell had his worst season in three. Back injuries always linger for fantasy owners the same way they do for the player so if you’re splitting hairs, that’s one. The reason guys change coaches is for a reaction and improvement. That’s another hair to split.

 

79    James Hahn

  • Sagarin: 130
  • OWGR: 154

The most surprising part of writing this was learning that Hahn is 37. The other surprising part was he visited the top 10 only once with a solo second at Sony 50 weeks ago. His last top 25 was at Riviera last February, a tournament where he knocked out Dustin Johnson and Paul Casey in a playoff in 2015. He also tied a career low with just three top-25 finishes.

 

80    Tom Hoge

  • Sagarin: 218
  • OWGR: 103

First time he kept his card in four tries. Similarly to Hahn, his only top 10 of last season was at Sony (third). If he continues to play 31 or so times he will give gamers a few extra chances to cash. He’s already played six times in the new season so arrows point to yes. The only time he finished inside the top 110 in scoring was his first year on TOUR.

 

81    Peter Uihlein

  • Sagarin: 110
  • OWGR: 81

He went the “Koepka Route” to begin his professional career and now has earned his full status on TOUR. His first full season provided a glimpse at what many already knew: he can play. He cashed in 16 of 26 starts last year and saw half of those go for top-25 checks. Half of that half were top-10’s. He’s already cashed in four of five to start the new year. Move ’em up!

 

82    Branden Grace

  • Sagarin: 38
  • OWGR: 49

He had a tendon tear in his shoulder late in the summer but returned to a normal schedule after five weeks off. He wouldn’t have been playing if it was bothering him says I.  New baby didn’t seem to bother him and neither does jet-setting like all of his fellow South Africans. He’ll play no more than 20 events like his countrymen as well but he’s in the top 25 in almost half of his events played.

 

83    Abraham Ancer

  • Sagarin: 60
  • OWGR: 57

In his last 13 worldwide starts he’s painted the top seven six times including winning the Emirates Australian Open to close his 2018 campaign. He played 30 events last season at checked in at No. 70 in scoring so there’s more than some quality here. At 27 he’s finding his footing QUICKLY and I’m going to move up a few spots to ride this wave.

 

84    Russell Knox

  • Sagarin: 87
  • OWGR: 68

After a two-win season, including a WGC event, in 2016, the Scotsman has regressed the last two seasons. 2018 was the first season in four where he didn’t hit the podium and his $1.4 million was his quietest haul since 2013. He’s annually in the top 30 in fairways and greens and have never fallen outside of the top 70 in scoring in the last five years. MAKE A PUTT, SON!

 

85    Kevin Tway

  • Sagarin: 48
  • OWGR: 90

Kicked off the new season with his first victory on TOUR so his confidence should be at an all-time high. Knowing that he’s made for the rest of this season and two more, Tway should free-wheel and enjoy a burden-free season. I don’t think he goes off-the-rails here as the family support won’t hurt. Gamers will hope he hits 27 or more starts just in case!

 

86    Jamie Lovemark

  • Sagarin: 70
  • OWGR: 156

That sound you hear is me banging my head against the wall. I’m not getting off this horse until it dies. He’s gone the wrong way the last two years so maybe I should. NO. I will not be swayed as annually a third of his starts result in top-25 paydays. Time to covert a few more.

 

87    Ollie Schniederjans

  • Sagarin: 175
  • OWGR: 179

He’s added veteran looper Damon Green in mid-December to his team and that should help tremendously. His talent has never been questioned but getting into contention and getting over the finish line has proven more difficult. The experience of Green on the greens and in big spots should push him over the top. I get that Ollie still hits the shots but this should be nothing but positive for the youngster. He’ll make the jump even quicker when he starts finding more fairways (No. 189) and greens (No. 168). Patience.

 

88    Russell Henley

  • Sagarin: 125
  • OWGR: 91

Burst onto the scene with a win in his first two seasons on TOUR but just one in his last four. He regressed in every major category last year with exception of fairways so there’s room to improve. His last win was at the Shell Houston Open which isn’t on the schedule this season. His other favorite happy hunting ground, Greenbrier, also isn’t on the list this year. Gulp.

 

89    Daniel Berger

  • Sagarin: 40
  • OWGR: 58

Wrist surgery was the end result of a 2018 season that never took off. He still cashed in 18 of 23 starts but was a major let-down for gamers thinking he was going to make “The Leap” to elite status. This will be a high-risk play near the top of draft boards but a no-brainer in the bottom halves.

 

90    Jason Dufner

  • Sagarin: 194
  • OWGR: 115

Half of his top-10 checks over the last two seasons are a win and a second so it’s a bit all-or-nothing. MC went up and top-25’s went down and I’m struggling to find some positives. I’d point out he was No. 145 in scoring and that was just the beginning of the bad stats from last year.

 

91    Anirban Lahiri

  • Sagarin: 173
  • OWGR: 147

Dufner finished above Lahiri in the season-long standings yet the Indian was No. 71 in scoring. The FedExCup points are real and spectacular but I believe scoring average paints a more consistent picture. This will be his fourth full season on TOUR so the comfort level should be tangible. He’s three-from-three in keeping his card and I don’t see why this year would be any different.

 

92    Tyrrell Hatton

  • Sagarin: 27
  • OWGR: 24

He’s racked out nine top-10 finishes in 40 TOUR starts. I’m going to stop writing now.

 

93    Patrick Rodgers

  • Sagarin: 97
  • OWGR: 146

Three seasons ago Rodgers was No. 133 in Strokes-Gained: Putting and No. 16 in GIR. In 2018 Rodgers finished 10th in Strokes-Gained: Putting and No. 116 in GIR. He made $1.3 million in 2016, 2017 and 2018. He won 11 times at Stanford, the same as Woods, but it hasn’t translated at this level, yet. Yet. Lovely outsider.

 

94    Brandon Harkins

  • Sagarin: 126
  • OWGR: 272

He knocked out 21 cuts from 30 starts in his first year on TOUR so that caught a few eyes. The Californian has worked his way up the ladder over multiple tours but he’s never cashed the biggest check any step of the way.

 

95    Trey Mullinax

  • Sagarin: 295
  • OWGR: 257

Lovely trajectory as his top-10 checks went up and his MC went down in his second season on TOUR. His quiet summer and fall might chase a few away but he did rack up three top-10’s in the first six months of the year.

 

96    Charl Schwartzel

  • Sagarin: 170
  • OWGR: 77

He racked up his most MC in a decade in calendar 2018 but he’s still eligible for the Masters, PLAYERS and Open Championship. Too much class yet wildly inconsistent gives me a headache.

 

97    Rory Sabbatini

  • Sagarin: 65
  • OWGR: 203

He’s now a citizen of Slovakia and has his eyes on the Olympics? Of course he is. He’s hit the top 10 just twice in his last 73 starts but he’ll find his way into the top 25 more often. A steady, veteran presence in off-week events never hurts salary-cap gamers.

 

98    Charley Hoffman  

  • Sagarin: 66
  • OWGR: 54

He’ll have a new bagman this season as Brett Waldman has moved on to Zach Johnson. Now 42, he’s coming off his worst season since 2012 as he didn’t find the top 10 once in 2018. Without a secured card for next year, a fresh voice on the bag should provoke a response. Should.

 

99    Alex Cejka

  • Sagarin: 171
  • OWGR: 341

He’s 48. I’m an ageist. Sue me. Pass.

 

100  Ryan Palmer

  • Sagarin: 79
  • OWGR: 127

He’s already eased concerns for the new season with back-to-back top-10 finishes that included a final-round 62 and a pair of 65’s. He’s currently 22nd in the FedExCup standings and should be on cruise control. He’s won the 13th-most money at Sony so I wouldn’t be surprised if the heat check continued to kick off 2019.

101  Richy Werenski

  • Sagarin:148
  • OWGR: 167

He’s kept his card twice and both times finished outside No. 125 in scoring. That’s amazing. He’s parlayed full playing privileges into a 5-5 start in the new season with a T3 in Mexico and two other top-25 paydays to sit No. 21 in the FedExCup standings.

 

102  Nick Watney

  • Sagarin: 45
  • OWGR: 138

He decided against back surgery a few years ago and has only picked up a pair of top-10’s in 54 starts since that decision.

 

103  Danny Lee

  • Sagarin: 114
  • OWGR: 94

With 28 or more starts the last five years there are multiple times to saddle up. I’ll point out last season was his worst in five in scoring and it wasn’t close. He’s a new dad as of late October and #NappyFactor saw him pocket a solo second at Mayakoba after T41 the previous week in Las Vegas. With his card for 2019-2020 secured I’m interested to see if he is more dad or more golfer.

 

104  Sung Kang

  • Sagarin: 348
  • OWGR: 198

It’s hard for me to attach my wagon to all-or-nothing and that’s what’s going on here. His only two top-10 finishes were podiums but there wasn’t much between. He was No. 178 in scoring last year and has never won professionally.

 

105 John Huh

  • Sagarin: 230
  • OWGR: 333

He hasn’t cashed over $1.1. million in the last five season. He hasn’t finished better than No. 97 in the FedExCup regular season. He’s never played less than 28 events. I’m not sure what the upside is.

 

106  Harold Varner III

  • Sagarin: 103
  • OWGR: 158

There’s something here. With four top-25 finishes in five of six starts in the new season I’m bullish. I’ll point out he’s never won on either TOUR but he did win the Australian PGA in 2016. Top 90 SG: TTG the last three years.

 

107  Scott Stallings

  • Sagarin: 182
  • OWGR: 212

I wouldn’t arm wrestle him for spot in the Masters as he’s gone the SUPER FIT route. The last three years he’s been inside the top 75 in SG: TTG but hasn’t picked up more than two top-10 checks. He’s going to play every week and has won three times on TOUR in his career. There are worse fillers in deep drafts.

 

108  Tyler Duncan

  • Sagarin: 297
  • OWGR: 384

The rookie teed it up 31 times last season and played the weekend 17 times. Keeping that up should keep his card but he’ll need to crash the top-10 and top-25 parties more often. It was impressive to watch him rattle off 12 straight paydays from May thru August. He finished in the top 30 in BOTH fairways and GIR. I can totally live with that. Now, about that putter…

 

109  William McGirt

  • Sagarin: 201
  • OWGR: 275

CAUTION. DANGER. https://www.pgatour.com/news/2018/08/05/william-mcgirt-reveals-he-could-miss-year-with-hip-surgery.html

 

110  J.T. Poston

  • Sagarin: 167
  • OWGR: 344

He finished No. 132 after 28 starts in his rookie campaign. He finished No. 110 after 22 starts playing out of the Nos. 126-150 category the second time around. Having a full schedule this season will add value for me. I’d expect him to retain his card if his ball-striking numbers continue to be solid.

 

111  Bronson Burgoon 

  • Sagarin: 197
  • OWGR: 108

Closed out 2018 in the top 85 in the major statistical categories besides SG: Around-the-Green. I’m going to get stuck in here as he’s now healthy and has almost won twice in the last five months. He’s 31 and this is tour of duty No. 3 so he should have most of it figured out by now.

 

112 Vaughan Taylor

  • Sagarin: 129
  • OWGR: 305

Wiley veteran has finished No. 124 and No. 112 the last two years and made 39 of 56 cuts. His two-year freebie from winning Pebble Beach in 2016 is over so no more free-wheeling! I’m more interested in certain venues than a season-long commitment.

 

113  Martin Laird

  • Sagarin: 124
  • OWGR: 208

He’s hit the top 10 three times a season for the last four years and already has one in 2018-19. The three-time winner is in his 12th consecutive year on TOUR. That counts in my book.

 

114  Sam Ryder

  • Sagarin: 89
  • OWGR: 149

He’s won on PGATOUR Canada and the Web.com and you know how much I like guys who have won. Guys who hit the second most GIR in their rookie season on TOUR can’t possibly be faking it! He was also No. 21 in fairways so how did he finish No. 114? One guess! Heavy MC (11 in 26 starts) didn’t help either. He’s 29 so the growing pains should be gone. He’s already secured T4 and solo third in five early starts and that will help his confidence.

 

115  Grayson Murray

  • Sagarin: 143
  • OWGR: 248

There’s plenty of talent here but also plenty of questions as a mid-June shoulder injury hasn’t completely cleared up. I’m in wait-and-see mode if anything. Bad shoulders don’t make for good golfers.

 

116  Ryan Blaum

  • Sagarin: 150
  • OWGR: 265

35-year old backed up his No. 105 with No. 116 the last two years on TOUR. His MC almost doubled last year but his T4 at The RSM to close 2018 will give some hope. He only had four top-10 finishes in his previous 61 starts.

 

117  Scott Brown

  • Sagarin: 319
  • OWGR: 336

Veteran grinder that has cashed $1 million plus every year but his rookie season. That’s six on the bounce if you’re scoring at home. The Augusta native plays an ton and that never hurts.

 

118  Brian Stuard

  • Sagarin: 301
  • OWGR: 316

He plays from the middle of the fairway but it hasn’t always translated. He MC in 32 of his last 70 starts. No, thanks.

 

119  Nick Taylor

  • Sagarin: 217
  • OWGR: 307

He’s found himself inside the top 125 in scoring ONCE in the last four years. His win at SFC in 2015 feels like 100 years ago.

 

120  Sam Saunders

  • Sagarin: 191
  • OWGR: 241

Kept his card for the first time ever as he’s never been better than No. 120 and never worse than No. 148. Classic “4A” player that blows wonderfully hot and woefully cold, I don’t think there is one golf fan who doesn’t want him to do well. Sentimental pick.

 

121  Sean O’Hair

  • Sagarin: 271
  • OWGR: 196

If he’s racked up a second-place finish every year for the last four, what’s he doing down here?? That should be the question that enters your mind. The last victory of four was 2011 but it’s obvious he’s still sniffing around.

 

122  Bud Cauley

  • Sagarin: 97
  • OWGR: 217

There’s no doubt about his talent but there is some doubt about his luck. A car wreck at Memorial slowed the rest of his 2018 but  he still hit the top 125 from only 17 events. Back and healthy he’s already cashed in three of four in the new season with a T10. Choo. Choo. All. Aboard.

 

123  Jhonattan Vegas

  • Sagarin: 118
  • OWGR: 123

Pretty unspectacular if you throw out the two victories at the RBC Canadian Open. He’s under zero pressure as he’s covered this year and the next two. One top 10 last season doesn’t inspire.

 

124  Harris English

  • Sagarin: 229
  • OWGR: 332

After cashing around $2 million annually from 2013-16, English has confounded gamers. An equipment switch didn’t help and a switch back hasn’t ignited his play. Before the new season where he hasn’t MC in five tries, he MC in 32 of his previous 58. I’ll point out none of his five paychecks this season have been T25 or better. Maybe this year is the year. I’ll let you find out.

 

125  Seamus Power

  • Sagarin: 262
  • OWGR: 359

Makes too many putts (14th SG: Putting last year; 64th in 2017) but if they’re all for par, does it really matter Eddie? All of his best paydays are “other” tier events.

 

Major Medical Extension

 

Lucas Glover

  • Sagarin: 41
  • OWGR: 136

Whatever was bothering him in the 2018 season is no longer bothering him in the 2019 season. He’s banged out four top-25’s in four starts including all four T17 or better. His ball-striking is beyond solid and don’t forget he almost cashed for $2 million in 2017.

Web.com Tour Reorder 

 

Robert Streb

  • Sagarin: 352
  • OWGR: 185

He missed 19 cuts in 29 events and was No. 178 on the final FedExCup points list. He won the first event in the Web.com finals to claim his card and kept up the warm play with T4 at Shriners in the new season. He’s matched his top-10 output from last season already. The pattern has been every-other-year and this should be the “good” other. This will be his seventh-consecutive season on TOUR.

 

Chase Wright

  • Sagarin: 279
  • OWGR: 227

The rookie broke through with a win on PGATOUR Canada in 2017 and on the Web.com Tour last year. In his first five starts with a card on TOUR, he’s already pocketed T10 and T7. The learning curve is never easy and the field expansion (rated players) should temper expectations. He’s in the form of his life.

Anders Albertson

  • Sagarin: 74
  • OWGR: 229

Third time was a charm on the Web.com as he led the Tour in birdie average and scoring plus cashed 14 times in the top 25 (win, second) to pick up his card. The former Georgia Tech player played on the Palmer Cup in 2015 so there’s some pedigree to look at as well.

Adam Schenk

  • Sagarin: 161
  • OWGR: 273

He’s matched his top-10 and top-25 finishes from 28 events in 2018 in five events in 2019. The second time around on TOUR is usually easier than the first. His experience could be a tiebreaker if you’re splitting hairs.

Sam Burns

  • Sagarin: 177
  • OWGR: 126

Broke onto the scene at The Honda Classic last March (T8) when he played the final round with Woods and beat him by two shots (68-70). His next TOUR event was T12 at Valspar before he cooled off and drifted back to the Web.com. He would have been the story if not for Im as he collected a win, a second and two thirds in just 17 starts. He led the Web.com in putting average and also hits it a mile.

Carlos Ortiz

  • Sagarin: 157
  • OWGR: 387

Welcome back! Old-school gamers will remember this man torching the Web.com for three wins and two thirds in 19 events in 2014. Ortiz went on to MC in 29 of 59 starts the next two years on TOUR before popping back up at 27 for 2018-19. He was ninth in the all-around last season but I’m going to need more proof moving forward.

Hunter Mahan

  • Sagarin: 151
  • OWGR: 371

A broken clock is accurate twice a day, right? THIS is gonna be the year, eh? Ok. Sure. He’s MC in 27 of his last 52 on TOUR but he’ll break out of it eventually. One top 10 in his last 74 events doesn’t make me optimistic.

Roberto Castro

  • Sagarin: 55
  • OWGR: 308

Pros have already been burned here before so move ahead with caution. Castro played 29 times in 2013 and racked out $2.15 million with four top-10’s and 13 top-25’s. In 2014 he MC 16 times and finished No. 135 in the FedExCup standings. In 2016 he bounced back from $179k the previous season to pocket a second, a third and make 22 of 27 cuts for $2.5 million. The next year he MC 15 of 25 events and finished No. 172. The range of possibilities this season is ENDLESS!

Stephan Jaeger

  • Sagarin: 302
  • OWGR: 264

Jaeger Meister? Mister Jaeger? Might wanna grab a bottle with both hands. He’s obviously overqualified for the Web.com (four wins in the last three seasons) but it hasn’t translated on TOUR in 31 events just yet. It’s obvious he knows what it takes to close a deal. That should help someday.

Peter Malnati

  • Sagarin: 146
  • OWGR: 304

This will be season No. 4 running on TOUR for the 2016 SFC champ. He hasn’t been close the last two seasons to keeping his card (No. 167, No. 161) during his exempt years as his MC rate hovered around 50%.

Cameron Davis

  • Sagarin: 183
  • OWGR: 105

He’s 23 and hits it a mile plus he’s Australian. His stat pack from the Web.com last year suggests he knows what he’s doing. He finished second in birdie average, third in putting average, seventh in GIR and eighth in driving distance. All the tools are here.  I’ll patiently wait.

Seth Reeves

  • Sagarin: 187
  • OWGR: 460

Another Yellow Jacket, this one is 6’3″ and is a rookie on TOUR. He’s never won as a pro on any TOUR and cashed in just 24 of 49 Web starts the last two years. He hits it a mile and makes birdies but who doesn’t on that circuit? The savvy gamer will point out he hasn’t missed in his first five starts on TOUR. Somewhere in the middle is the answer.

Jim Knous

  • Sagarin: 212
  • OWGR: 585

kah NOWSE. Start there and work back. His Twitter handle will remind you as well (brilliant)! Another rookie who doesn’t have much history to rely upon took his chance as he cashed T10 in his first start with a TOUR card. He’s MC in the other two but finds himself in the proper half of the reshuffle from his humble beginnings.

Kramer Hickok

  • Sagarin: 214
  • OWGR: 162

Yep, let’s go. Blitzed the Mackenzie Tour (two wins, three seconds) in 2017. Blitzed the Web.com last summer (playoff win, second, third plus three more top-10’s). The jump to the highest level is never easy but his arc seems to be pointing in the proper direction. I’m getting on board now.

Scott Langley

  • Sagarin: 185
  • OWGR: 318

Just signed a new deal with PXG so we’ll see how that translates as he returns to TOUR for the first time since 22 starts in 2016. The lefty had a monster season last year to reclaim his status and posted back-to-back top-30’s to close 2018. His best year (2014) was because of his short game.

Julian Etulain

  • Sagarin: 416
  • OWGR: 357

I can’t believe he’s 30 as he turned pro in 2008 but here we are. A big 2016 on the Web.com gave him 22 chances in the big leagues in 2017 but he only racked up enough points for No. 161. His win on the Web last year in March secured his place for another rodeo. Not much jumps out unless you count all the times he’s won in Argentina. I’m not.

Michael Thompson

  • Sagarin: 184
  • OWGR: 310

Sometimes I dive deep. Sometimes I just trust the simple stuff. Since his win in 2013 (Honda) he’s placed No. 106, No. 146, No. 145, No. 148 and No. 142 in the FedExCup standings.

Shawn Stefani

  • Sagarin: 235
  • OWGR: 338

The 37-year old hasn’t posted more than one top-10 payday per season since 2015 but he already has one in five starts this year. Since 2015 he’s finished the year No. 123, No. 165 and No. 147 in the FedExCup.

Kyoung-hoon Lee

  • Sagarin: 269
  • OWGR: 348

The 27-year old rookie turned pro in 2010 and has made 206 starts worldwide so he’s plenty weathered. He’s more than doubled his money on the Web.com the last two years and three seconds in 2018 earned him promotion. He won twice on the Japan Tour (2012, 2015) and also won the 2015 Kolon Korea Open, which usually has a more than decent field.

Kyle Jones

  • Sagarin: 368
  • OWGR: 306

His first run at the Web.com in 2016 ended with 10 MC in 20 starts and $33k. His next run in 2018 included two seconds, three additional top 10’s and 16 of 27 cuts made for $233k. Hmmmmmmm.

Dylan Frittelli

  • Sagarin: 76
  • OWGR: 76

The South African played collegiately at Texas and has picked up four wins worldwide since 2013. All you need to know about him is that he was T7 last year and T4 the year before at the DP World Tour Championship. He’s only played 15 events on TOUR but his record speaks for itself. A steal in leagues where folks aren’t paying attention and might have the most class in the reshuffle.

Alex Prugh

  • Sagarin: 164
  • OWGR: 440

He’s 34 and will be playing in the bigs for the fourth time in his career. Las Vegas resident grew up in Washington state and was last on TOUR for a full season in 2015 (No. 133). His best year is still his rookie season of 2010 (No. 81). His only pro win was in 2009 on the Web.com.

Wyndham Clark

  • Sagarin: 374
  • OWGR: 368

There’s plenty of talent here but be aware of the growing pains. Decorated college golfer has been on the radar for a while but this is only his second season of professional golf. He made 12 and missed 12 in 24 starts last year on the Web but the upside is too great for me to pass on.

Hank Lebioda

  • Sagarin: 315
  • OWGR: 495

After turning pro in 2016 he’s worked his way up through the Mackenzie Tour – Canada, PGATOUR Latinoamerica and the Web. He’s moved up from each level so he gets the process. I like that he made 18 of 26 cuts last year as that shows consistency.

Adam Svensson

  • Sagarin: 350
  • OWGR: 442

The 25-year old is in his fourth season as a pro and is a proper grinder. He improved each year and finally broke thru with a win on the Web.com last year to claim his card. The adjustment period will be difficult, as it is for most on this list.

Sebastian Munoz

  • Sagarin: 193
  • OWGR: 300

He’s put 17 starts under his belt from his first tour on TOUR in 2017. He MC in nine of those starts and not even a solo third at Greenbrier could save him. Better have more than one if it’s not a big one (win or second)! He’ll be better prepared this time around.

Ben Silverman

  • Sagarin: 236
  • OWGR: 290

Rookie season on TOUR last year saw him collect in 17 of 28 starts to finish No. 136. He then picked up T3 at the Web.com Tour Championship to move into the reshuffle. He’s 31 and knows how to find fairways and hole putts. I’d move him up.

Jose de Jesus Rodriguez

  • Sagarin: 344
  • OWGR: 326

I never get excited about 37-year old TOUR rookies in fantasy land and I’m not changing my mind today.

Wes Roach

  • Sagarin: 134
  • OWGR: 423

The 31-year old makes his third journey on TOUR. His MC rate is 50% in his career but he did cash in 21 of 25 events on the Web.com last season. His putting numbers made a huge jump and I’m not sure that will translate. Careful.

Nicholas Lindheim

  • Sagarin: 186
  • OWGR: 363

He’s won four times in the last five years across three Tours minus the big one. It’s clear he has too much game for the level below. At 34 he should be comfortable in his skin and with his game. This is his third year in a row on TOUR.

Cameron Tringale

  • Sagarin: 575
  • OWGR: 579

Fantasy gamers have been here and done this. The litany of evidence is there. You gotta do you but I’ve been burned enough that I’ve learned my lesson.

Josh Teater

  • Sagarin: 285
  • OWGR: 420

Another former TOUR player back in the bigs, not much is going to bother the Kentuckian this time around. He’ll find plenty of GIR and that will push him into more weekends than not.

Sepp Straka

  • Sagarin: 400
  • OWGR: 422

For those gamers who blindly believe in the Georgia Bulldog college pipeline, here’s another to add to the list. With only three top-10 paychecks in 51 Web.com starts, I’ll take a wait-and-see attitude.

Roger Sloan

  • Sagarin: 305
  • OWGR: 474

Very steady Web.com performer over the last three seasons but only two podiums from his 11 top-10’s. He played 20 events on TOUR in 2016 but MC 13 times.

Matt Jones

  • Sagarin: 227
  • OWGR: 279

269 starts on TOUR and almost $11 million in earnings could suggest this as a no-brainer selection. I’ll point out he hasn’t hit the top 125 in the last three seasons and hasn’t had a top-10 cash since 2015.

John Chin

  • Sagarin: 468
  • OWGR: 491

At 31 I haven’t seen enough evidence that it’s going to happen THIS YEAR. The OWGR is a two-year cycle and barely being in the top 500 should be a clue for gamers.

Chris Thompson

  • Sagarin:274
  • OWGR: 373

Kyle. Curtis. Lexi. Chris. Michael. Can someone do a white board on these family trees please? If wasn’t enamored with 37-year old rookie above and I can’t possibly endorse this 42-year old.

 Brady Schnell

  • Sagarin: 452
  • OWGR: 386

He won twice on PGATOUR Latinoamerica in 2017 and once on the Web.com last season. If I’m going super-long shot, it’s with a guy who has won recently.

Curtis Luck

  • Sagarin: 362
  • OWGR: 485

There’s nowhere to hide when you’re the No. 1-ranked amateur after winning the U.S. Amateur and Asia-Pacific Amateur and that’s where Luck stood before turning pro after the 2017 Masters. The results haven’t flowed in for the 22-year old Aussie but his pedigree shouldn’t be dismissed.

J.J. Henry

  • Sagarin: 339
  • OWGR: 612

A new one-time exemption for “Players who have 300 PGA TOUR Career Cuts Made” lands him here. That should be self-explanatory but he’s played every course on TOUR a billion times and is a perfect last-man if you don’t find a youngster instead.

Martin Trainer

  • Sagarin: 638
  • OWGR: 295

All base no treble? Hits it a mile and has been a bit of all-or-nothing. He won twice on the Web.com but only had one other top-10/top-25 cash. Missing 12 cuts in 21 events won’t push him over the edge but he also won in 2016 on PGATOUR Latinoamerica. #Winners.

Max Homa

  • Sagarin: 448
  • OWGR: 848

He’s MC in 19 of his last 22 on TOUR. It’s 34 of 49 if you stretch it out. He won on the Web.com in 2014 and 2016 but has MC 32 times in 73 tries on that circuit as well.

Roberto Diaz

  • Sagarin: 294
  • OWGR: 744

Played 25 events last season on TOUR and had had one top-25 to his name. Ripped off four top-25 paydays in the Web.com Playoffs to return. Can’t be worse, right?!?

Adam Long

  • Sagarin: 312
  • OWGR: 412

His next TOUR start will be his fifth.

Chad Collins

  • Sagarin: 492
  • OWGR: 729

Teed it up three times in 2018.

Joey Garber

  • Sagarin: 611
  • OWGR: 439

After winning on the first Sunday of June, Garber MC in seven of 11 starts to finish the Web.com season. His next start on TOUR will be his 10th.

Nate Lashley

  • Sagarin: 135
  • OWGR: 476

He’s played 20 TOUR events and has cashed four times in the top 25, including twice in three tries this year. He won three times in 2016 on PGATOUR Latinoamerica and won on the 2017 Web.com (Corales Punta Cana). Hmmmmmm.

 

Nos. 126-150 Category

Corey Conners

  • Sagarin: 181
  • OWGR: 270

The Canadian cleared 20 checks in 28 starts as a rookie last year and that should provide a nice foundation moving forward. His ball-striking numbers are all top 50 and he was 83rd in scoring. Those are too many clues for gamers. He’s already matched his top-10 paydays (one) from last year in five starts in the new season.

Aaron Baddeley

  • Sagarin: 154
  • OWGR: 285

He’s on his own this season as his two-year exemption ran out last season. He’s not finished inside the top 125 in three of the last four years. His only finish inside the top 100 in the last six years came in 2016, the same season he won. He’s MC in 23 of his last 50 starts.

Bill Haas

  • Sagarin: 174
  • OWGR: 200

Gamers who don’t know the story from Riviera last season should look it up before they decide one way or another on Haas. I’m expecting a return to normalcy this season that could provide value on a salary of just $638k.

Jim Furyk

  • Sagarin: 116
  • OWGR: 225

For every Mayakoba Golf Classic (T6) there is a Shriners (MC) and an RSM Classic (MC). He’s 48 and has accomplished almost everything in the game. I’m going to use him on tracks where keeping the golf ball in play is paramount and par is a good score.

Graeme McDowell

  • Sagarin: 128
  • OWGR: 236

With one top-10 finish in his last 41 starts on TOUR, even the most optimistic folks will have a hard time making a case for 2010 U.S. Open Champion. He’ll have a chance to defend at Pebble Beach in June but there have been only two wins on TOUR since.

David Hearn

  • Sagarin: 278
  • OWGR: 481

The Canadian peaked at $1.8 million in 2015 but the last three years have all been going the wrong direction. At 39 with limited starts, I’m looking elsewhere.

Johnson Wagner

  • Sagarin: 99
  • OWGR: 432

He’s cashed in 12 of his last 13 stretching back to the partner’s game at Zurich last season. In 2017 he MC 17 times in 26 starts. This is the second season running playing out of this category.

 

Talor Gooch

  • Sagarin: 286
  • OWGR: 334

His victory on the Web.com in 2017 earned him 27 starts as a rookie last year. He only made 12 cuts and his best payday was T13 at Quail Hollow.

Martin Piller

  • Sagarin: 475
  • OWGR: 372

“Mr. Unlucky” last year finished at No. 126 reinforcing that every shot counts on TOUR. This season will be his fourth so there shouldn’t be much he hasn’t experienced. His first child was born in May but the #NappyFactor stork didn’t find his house. Posting just one top 25 the rest of the season he also MC in eight of his last 10 events. His T32 at RSM to close calendar 2018 was his best finish in six months.

Robert Garrigus

  • Sagarin: 243
  • OWGR: 355

Now 41, the big hitter had a very quiet season last year as he regressed across the board. He’s only kept full playing privileges in two of the last four seasons as Father Time marches on.

Tom Lovelady

  • Sagarin: 309
  • OWGR: 345

Only 25, the former ‘Bama player doesn’t have any professional wins but he did get 28 starts last season. He’ll need to find more than 15 paychecks this season because he probably won’t get that many starts from this category. Both of his top finishes last year were opposite field events but that’s why they’re there.

Ben Crane

  • Sagarin: 158
  • OWGR: 397

He’s 42 and hasn’t won since 2014 and hasn’t had multiple top-10 finishes since that same season. His last four years on the FedExCup points list should answer most of your questions.

Derek Fathauer

  • Sagarin: 411
  • OWGR: 450

His best FedExCup finish is No. 111 in five previous tries.

Tyrone van Aswegen

  • Sagarin: 307
  • OWGR: 480

Over the last three seasons he’s been paid 64 times in his last 97 events and averages 31.5 starts.

Chad Campbell

  • Sagarin: 404
  • OWGR: 288

Over the last few years he’s been finding his money in off-week events so if you need a player, remember him. He’s 44 and finished outside of the top 51 in scoring for the first time in five years last year. The bad news was he was No. 171. That’s a big drop.

Shane Lowry

  • Sagarin: 71
  • OWGR: 75

The worries with “dual citizenship” is how much travel is too much and how many events over the minimum will be entered. The other interesting angle is he’s currently only eligible for the PGA Championship. At No. 75 in the OWGR an early season big finish or two will start knocking over those dominoes for the rest of the year. #Gambling.

David Lingmerth

  • Sagarin: 301
  • OWGR: 331

2018 was his worst year on TOUR, ever. The angle here is that he can’t possibly repeat that feat but like most on this list he’s also playing without a net this season.

 

 

 

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