The Confidence Factor: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

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Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

TPC Summerlin

Las Vegas

 

TPC Summerlin Cheat Sheet

Yards (per official scorecard): 7,255
Par: 71 (35-36)
Greens: Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 11.5′
Rough: Bermudagrass
Bunkers/Water Hazards 99/4
Architects: Bobby Weed & Fuzzy Zoelller (1991)
Purse: $7 million; $1.26 million, 500 FedExCup points (winner).
Defending Champion: Patrick Cantlay (-9; 275)
Fact of the Week: Of the last 10 winners, six are first-timers.
Fact of the Week II: Last year’s winning total was the worst winning score by SEVEN shots. #GoLow.

 

Notes:

  • 132 players
  • Became Par-71 in 2009
  • Became exclusive host in 2008

 

 

2017-18 Winners

Looking back to look forward as you’ll notice no Spieth, Fowler, Scott, McIlroy, Matsuyama, Fleetwood, Finau, Stenson or Garcia.

*First-time winner

**First-time winner AND rookie winner

Event Winner
   
Safeway Open Brendan Steele
CIMB Classic Pat Perez
WGC-HSBC Champions Justin Rose
Sanderson Farms Ryan Armour*
Shriners Hospitals for Children Patrick Cantlay*
OHL Mayakoba Patton Kizzire*
The RSM Classic Austin Cook**
Sentry TOC Dustin Johnson
Sony Open Patton Kizzire (2)
CB Challenge Jon Rahm
Farmers Insurance Open Jason Day
WMPO Gary Woodland
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Ted Potter, Jr.
Genesis Open Bubba Watson
Honda Classic Justin Thomas
WGC-Mexico Championship Phil Mickelson
Valspar Championship Paul Casey
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy
WGC-Match Play Bubba Watson (2)
Corales Puntacana Resorts Brice Garnett*
Houston Open Ian Poulter
Masters Patrick Reed
RBC Heritage Satoshi Kodaira*
Valero Texas Open Andrew Landry*
Zurich Classic of New Orleans Billy Horschel & Scott Piercy
Wells Fargo Championship Jason Day (2)
THE PLAYERS Championship Webb Simpson
AT&T Byron Nelson Aaron Wise**
Fort Worth Invitational Justin Rose (2)
Memorial Bryson DeChambeau
FESJC Dustin Johnson (2)
U.S. Open Brooks Koepka
Travelers Championship Bubba Watson (3)
Quicken Loans National Francesco Molinari
A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier Kevin Na
John Deere Classic Michael Kim*
The Open Championship Francesco Molinari (2)
RBC Canadian Open Dustin Johnson (3)
Barracuda Championship Andrew Putnam*
WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Justin Thomas (3)
PGA Championship Brooks Koepka (2)
Wyndham Championship Brandt Snedeker
THE NORTHERN TRUST FEC I Bryson DeChambeau (2)
Dell Technologies FEC II Bryson DeChambeau (3)
BMW Championship FEC III Keegan Bradley
TOUR Championship Tiger Woods

 

The Confidence Factor is the weekly column I write for PGATOUR.COM. I’ve included the link here for you. Please read as I’m not going to write it all out here.

 

Facts and Figures:

Tournament Record: 260 (-24); Webb Simpson (2013), Ryan Moore (2012).
Course Record: 60; Rod Pampling (2017), J.J. Henry (2014).
Recent Defending Champion(s): Jim Furyk, last century.
Multiple Winners (event or course): Furyk, last century.
First TOUR Win (last): Cantlay
First-time Event: Cantlay, Kaufman; two of the last three.
Low Round 2017: 63; Alex Cejka (Round 4).
Odd Fact: Smylie Kaufman is the only winner to have his driving DISTANCE outrank his driving ACCURACY.

 

Quick Thoughts

Anything goes in Vegas and the storylines from this event have followed. Kaufman closed with 61. Pampling was the oldest winner by SIX YEARS. Cantlay won a playoff in a gale.

This week should be wide open again and par-breakers and low scores will return. As noted above, nobody was won this event multiple times or defended (obviously) this century. It’s not hard to see as a shootout will involve more players than an event where par is a good score.

It’s survival of the fittest in the Las Vegas desert and it will not be for the faint of heart come the weekend, on or off the course.

Cantlay? California.

Pampling? Dallas.

Kaufmann? Jupiter.

Spot a trend yet?

Yeah, there isn’t one.

Nobody has won more than one.

Nobody repeats.

Low scores on a short-ish track opens all doors!

 

Recent Event Winners:

Year Player Notes
2017 Patrick Cantlay (-9) Trailed by four and shot 67 in the wind in the final round.
2016 Rod Pampling (-20) Open with 60 and closed with 65. It’s his last top 10 on TOUR.
2015 Smylie Kaufman (-16) Closed with 61 to win in his fifth TOUR event EVER.
2014 Ben Martin (-20) Won by two as he hit a ton of GIR and made a ton of putts.
2013 Webb Simpson (-24) Made 28 birdies against four bogeys and won by six.

 

Must-Haves

Tony Finau: The 54-hole leader last week in Shanghai couldn’t close the deal but picked up his sixth top-10 check in his last eight starts. He played in the final group here last year before a closing-round 72 knocked him to T16. In a perfect world I’d love him to have a week off after his jaunt to Asia but the Utah native should have plenty of energy in the gallery this week to get him over the hump.

Gary Woodland: Here’s his last six starts on TOUR:

T48 (FECI)

T24 (FECII)

T12 (FECIII)

T11 (FECIV)

T5  (CIMB)

2    (CJ CUP)

You don’t need a magnifying class or fingerprints…

Webb Simpson: A super-soft landing spot to get his season kicked off, the 2014 champ and co-tournament record holder enjoys a bit of desert golf (check his Scottsdale money). This will be his sixth consecutive trip to TPC Summerlin and he rolls in with three top-six finishes in his last five on TOUR.

Rickie Fowler: Remember when he had an oblique problem and took a month off after the PGA Championship? His only two FedExCup Playoff appearances were T8 (BMW) and T7 (TOUR Championship). I’d say he’s healthy and well-rested. He’s 39-under in three trips but hasn’t played since 2016.

Bryson DeChambeau: This is will be his third consecutive trip to the desert so it’s obvious he enjoys this layout. He’s currently No. 6 in the OWGR so he’s making his own schedule! Check the stats in The Confidence Factor if you need a push.

Ryan Moore: UNLV alum and TPC Summerlin member has the other piece of the tournament record and also signed for 61 during that winning campaign. He’s already went close with T2 at Safeway and was T6 at Wyndham late last year, two of his other favorite happy hunting grounds.

Patrick Cantlay: Everyone loves the defending champ! Everyone loves the defending champ even more when he collects T7 the week before he defends! I’ll point out that he has posted five of his eight rounds this season at 70 or worse. I’ll point out that he’s defending for the first time, which is never easy with the additional commitments. I’ll point out his lowest total on TOUR last season was 14-under (solo fourth, Memorial). I’m going to be more interested when Par is an excellent score but he sure does PROJECT this week.

Aaron Wise: The area resident and 2018 Rookie of the Year has already proven his worth in a shootout as he won the AT&T Byron Nelson on 23-under last May. He eats off the tee and makes plenty of birdies and that combo will not hurt this week.

 

Insurance

Austin Cook: Cut his teeth here last year with BIG WIND and now will get a chance to make 25 or more birdies. He’s top 25 in fairways and birdies made.

Scott Piercy: Nobody has made more birdies, resident or otherwise, since 2010 as Piercy has collected 147 circles. The interesting side note is he’s hasn’t cashed inside the top 20 in his last three tries. The great news is he’s never been worse than T32 eight weekends from nine events. His T5 at the CJ Cup shouldn’t scare anyone off either!

Kevin Na: UNLV alum and local resident has burned extremely HOT (2011 win, 2016 T2) but is coming off three straight in Asia. I like him more than not this week because when guys get home and relax, their games can free up. He knows the course, will sleep in his own bed and should have nothing but fun.

Ryan Palmer: Bentgrass birdie maker should be riding high after T3 at the CJ Cup his last time out. That’s his second top-five finish in his last five events so there’s something brewing for the Texan.

Kevin Streelman: Another who loves a bit of desert golf, Streelman hasn’t missed in eight tries here and has put just three of 32 rounds in the black. The downside is those three rounds have come in his last five at the event but the history wins out for me.

Martin Laird: Feasts on golf in Nevada and in the desert as his record at Montreux and TPC Scottsdale affirms. Picked up his first win here in 2009 and lost in a playoff the following year to Jonathan Byrd’s hole-in-one. Yep.

Russell Henley: Absolutely ZERO form to hang your hat on but if birdies are required, this might be the perfect tonic to get him going. He gets a nudge as he’s 25-under (10th, T24) in his last two here.

J.J. Spaun: He’s banged out nine paydays running and the best of the bunch was T10 last time out. The 36-hole leader from last year went into the final round tied with Hossler before cashing T10. He opened 66-65 last year.

Beau Hossler: Cut just twice in his last 19, he also has unfinished business at TPC Summerlin as he and Spaun began the final round three shots ahead of third and four in front of Cantlay. He was fourth on TOUR last season in SG: Putting and should make a few more this week.

Adam Schenk: I mean I don’t know what else to tell you. In his last five his worst finish across both Tours is T14. He’s cashed T35 or better in seven of his last nine.

 

Longer Odds

Anders Albertson: With three top 10’s in his last four, you’ll do worse in the long-shot department.

Bronson Burgoon: Career-best T2 at CIMB where he posted 21-under. He’d take that this week in a heartbeat.

Chesson Hadley: I can make the case after T2 at CIMB. I can add he has a pair of top-five paydays here as well. I can also point out of his 14 rounds at TPC Summerlin six are par or worse and his top 10 was backed up by T73 in a 78-man field. Lovely risk-reward play but I’m not setting my lineup around him.

Danny Lee: After summer DQ at JDC has found a nice rhythm. Beware he’s 0-4 here with exactly one round in the 60’s. Worth a pop in DFS for me because of the expected light usage. His last two top-10 checks both on bentgrass.

Denny McCarthy: Solid bounce-back performance (T7) at SFC after MC to open up at Safeway. He’s never broke par here in four rounds but his very solid play (Web.com Tour Championship winner) suggests his form should supersede any history concerns.

Jason Kokrak: Knocking. Big stick, plenty of GIR and birdies and will be playing for the seventh time.

Cameron Davis: Because he was my OAD last week and MC.

Anyone Named Alex: Cejka is a resident has cashed four straight here at T27 or better and has a pair of runner-up finishes to boot. #HisMajor. Prugh has racked up nine of his last 10 on both Tours at T39 or better.

Anyone Named Sam: Ryder or Burns. Go stick an exacta on them. Can’t lose.

Anyone Named Taylor (last name only): Vaughn and Nick have made a buncha cuts but nothing inside the top 20.

Nick Watney: Las Vegas angle. Last three rounds here should get you a nicer price than the streak of T16 or better in five of six before it. T19 at the CIMB Classic

Doug Ghim: Anyone who survives a 6-for-1 playoff works for me. He’s made enough cuts (6 of 7) as a pro to chuck in as a flier.

Dylan Meyer: Shhhhh.

 

Insert More Coins

Jordan Spieth: He only makes sense in the PGA TOUR game because he won’t use all three starts in this segment. Heading to Mexico as well next week but one top 10 since the Masters hardly inspires.

Matt Kuchar: Used to count on him as an automatic top-25 guy and cut-maker. Last summer suggested that won’t be the case for me anymore. There is NO NEED to jump on Kuchar until he flashes because he has PLENTY of spots for use down the road. Quick! Name his last top 10! Yep, Carnoustie, just like Spieth. It was weird to see that course break some guys out of some nasty funks.

Cameron Champ: I’ll point out the driving distance vs. driving accuracy stat above. He made 28 birdies last week and his life changed forever. I’ll      let him enjoy it. If he’s as good as advertised, we’ll have a use for him again down the road.

Chris Kirk: Never better than T36 in four tries here.

Rory Sabbatini: Picked up ONE paycheck in his last eight here.

 

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out through Twitter or email me mikeglasscott@gmail.com.

 

 

 

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