Rory McIlroy is the landlord here.

Uncle Phil lives just up the block.

If you don’t have either of those as choices, don’t worry, I have a few more to look at this week.

Oh, and there’s always this guy…

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Total Events: 25	Top 10s: 8	MC: 5	$5,067,989

Last week:

A week late and LOTSA dollars short.

Man, that stings.

The only saving grace was I drafted that team in my weekly game. So I have that going for me. Which is nice.

#RTR was rolled over and MC by a shot. After seeing only two birdies in best ball on Thursday, part of me was surprised they had a “chance” on Friday.  I don’t regret the pick or the pairing but part of me probably ignored the partner’s angle in regards to Horschel/Piercy. I went with the two more comfortable of the two choices.

My Choice: Bud Cauley — MC

Picks for Leaders: Billy Horschel — WIN, Wesley Bryan — MC, Sean O’Hair — T25

Picks for Chasers: Ryan Palmer — MC, Ryan Ruffels — T34, Chesson Hadley — T4

Picks for Dreamers: Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Byeong-Hun An — ALL MISSED THE CUT.

Picks for Noses: Scott Brown — T15, Pat Perez — 2nd, Rafael Cabrera-Bello — MC

Six Beers In: Aaron Wise — MC, Cameron Percy — T10, Chris Kirk — MC

Drop-Dead Pick: Bud Cauley. DEAD AF.

Learn from it and move on.

 

This week:

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.

 

My Choice: Bryson DeChambeau

Picks for Leaders: Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson, Webb Simpson

Picks for Chasers: Rory McIlroy, Chesson Hadley, Kevin Streelman

Picks for Dreamers: Ryan Moore, Francesco Molinari, Lucas Glover

Picks for Noses: Tiger Woods, Gary Woodland, Bill Haas

Six Beers In: Robert Streb, Harold Varner, III

Drop-Dead Pick: Rory McIlroy

 

Key Questions:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

Leaders are not FORCED to burn McIlroy this week, but by all means, go ahead. When you’re in the front, you make the OTHERS make such difficult decisions while you sup champagne and nibble on caviar.

There are eight BIG-BOY events left and one is next week. If you are chasing by a considerable margin, it’s time to think about releasing some of the major hounds to get back into this. There’s no point having 12 premium players for the WGC-BI, PGA Championship and four FedExCup Playoff events.

“Don’t take your time outs to heaven” as we say here in Indiana.

There are no prizes for having premium players sitting around at the end of the year.

It’s time to start thinning the herd.

Does course history matter this week?

James Hahn was the exception to many rules when he won here in 2016 and this was one of them. Derek Ernst upset a few trends with his win as well. The angle to the course history that matters is there are premium players who annually play well here. Choose one of them!

My Life

I’m trying to catch lightning in a bottle here. I’ve already burned Mickelson and had to talk myself off the ledge with McIlroy. Justin Thomas wasn’t easy to leave off either. I’ve dropped out of the running in my league and need to make a play so that’s what I’ve done here.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!