OAD — Wells Fargo Championship

Rory McIlroy is the landlord here.

Uncle Phil lives just up the block.

If you don’t have either of those as choices, don’t worry, I have a few more to look at this week.

Oh, and there’s always this guy…

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Total Events: 25 Top 10s: 8 MC: 5 $5,067,989
       

Last week:

A week late and LOTSA dollars short.

Man, that stings.

The only saving grace was I drafted that team in my weekly game. So I have that going for me. Which is nice.

#RTR was rolled over and MC by a shot. After seeing only two birdies in best ball on Thursday, part of me was surprised they had a “chance” on Friday.  I don’t regret the pick or the pairing but part of me probably ignored the partner’s angle in regards to Horschel/Piercy. I went with the two more comfortable of the two choices.

My Choice: Bud Cauley — MC

Picks for Leaders: Billy HorschelWIN, Wesley Bryan — MC, Sean O’Hair — T25

Picks for Chasers: Ryan Palmer — MC, Ryan Ruffels — T34, Chesson HadleyT4

Picks for Dreamers: Sam Burns, Keith Mitchell, Byeong-Hun An — ALL MISSED THE CUT.

Picks for Noses: Scott Brown — T15, Pat Perez2nd, Rafael Cabrera-Bello — MC

Six Beers In: Aaron Wise — MC, Cameron PercyT10, Chris Kirk — MC

Drop-Dead Pick: Bud Cauley. DEAD AF.

Learn from it and move on.

 

This week:

If you need info on the course or deeper dives, head arrow down:

Check The Confidence Factor for all other details.

 

My Choice: Bryson DeChambeau

Picks for Leaders: Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson, Webb Simpson

Picks for Chasers: Rory McIlroy, Chesson Hadley, Kevin Streelman

Picks for Dreamers: Ryan Moore, Francesco Molinari, Lucas Glover

Picks for Noses: Tiger Woods, Gary Woodland, Bill Haas

Six Beers In: Robert Streb, Harold Varner, III

Drop-Dead Pick: Rory McIlroy

 

Key Questions:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Explain Yourself!?!?

Leaders are not FORCED to burn McIlroy this week, but by all means, go ahead. When you’re in the front, you make the OTHERS make such difficult decisions while you sup champagne and nibble on caviar.

There are eight BIG-BOY events left and one is next week. If you are chasing by a considerable margin, it’s time to think about releasing some of the major hounds to get back into this. There’s no point having 12 premium players for the WGC-BI, PGA Championship and four FedExCup Playoff events.

“Don’t take your time outs to heaven” as we say here in Indiana.

There are no prizes for having premium players sitting around at the end of the year.

It’s time to start thinning the herd.

Does course history matter this week?

James Hahn was the exception to many rules when he won here in 2016 and this was one of them. Derek Ernst upset a few trends with his win as well. The angle to the course history that matters is there are premium players who annually play well here. Choose one of them!

My Life

I’m trying to catch lightning in a bottle here. I’ve already burned Mickelson and had to talk myself off the ledge with McIlroy. Justin Thomas wasn’t easy to leave off either. I’ve dropped out of the running in my league and need to make a play so that’s what I’ve done here.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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