OAD — The Honda Classic 2018

Lions (no) and Tigers (yes) and Bears (yes), oh my (RIP Dick Enberg)

Throwing a curve ball this week.

Abandon ship at your leisure!

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
       
Total Events: 15 Top 10s: 6 Top 25: 9 $3,758,500

Last week:

There’s nothing WORSE than being on board when a dominant player doesn’t fire.

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

Dustin Johnson’s T16 at Riviera could have been worse, yes, I agree, but  being on board for his worst finish outside of his rookie year was rough.

It’s rough because he didn’t fire and it’s rough because there are 91309082082 other events I could have used him.

Rough.

These things happen. Once you pull the trigger, you’re in and you have to stand by your decision. Every year in this game you will have regrets but there are simply no guarantees in fantasy golf.

If that’s not bad enough, my second wave of players were dire as well.

Buckle up, strap in and do it again this week!

Last Week:

My Choice: Dustin Johnson T16.

Close Second: Paul Casey T49, Chez Reavie T73, Thomas Pieters T68.

Outliers: Jimmy Walker MC, Jason Kokrak T20, James Hahn T14.

Gut Shot(s): Adam Scott T53.

Rank Outsider(s): Sangmoon Bae T75, Martin Laird T9, K.J. Choi MC.

This week:

The Confidence Factor should give you plenty of clues and angles for the return to the Florida coast.

You’ll notice that the winners here have really just one thing in common: all but one are multiple winners on TOUR. This is a winners golf course because there isn’t much room for a tight, shirt collar or loose thoughts when the wind is blowing.  There’s too much water, sand traps and bad places to miss it when the pressure is on.

You’ll also notice there have not been multiple winners at this venue. The Champion Course is difficult and a full bag will need to be on the cards this week.

Check out The Confidence Factor for more details.

The Champion Course plays 7,140 to par 70 so I’m leaning on pro ball-strikers that can get the ball in the hole, suffer a couple tough holes and move on. There’s no time to dwell on the last shot with danger on just about every hole. As we’ve seen in the recent past, previous experience is not mandatory but making plenty of pars is!

My Choice: Graeme McDowell

Close Second: Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland

Outliers: Tyrell Hatton, Jason Dufner, Ian Poulter

Gut Shot(s): Tommy Fleetwood

Rank Outsider(s): Sung Kang, Luke List, Sean O’Hair

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Wait, WHAT???

I’m not sure I’ve found a trend I like this week so I’m going to take one for the team. If the wind is going to rustle and bustle all week, I’ll take a guy who flights it down and can scramble a bit. He’s played this course enough and lives in this part of the world to know what it takes to get the ball in the hole. He was T12 in GIR and scrambling last week at a difficult Riviera. His last 17 holes were a disaster but I’m hoping that’s lit the fire.

Foreign Legion

Of the last 11 winners, seven have been international players. There are a few big boys from the OWGR top 30 in the field this week that might not be in your plans down the road this season. If that’s the case, fire at will. Last year, first-timer Tyrell Hatton was T4 as was rookie Wesley Bryan. Past reps aren’t required here.

Wind

Texas fellas usually know a thing or two about knocking it around in the breeze as do the premium ball-strikers. Jason Dufner has never MC in nine tries and he doesn’t make his money with the putter. I don’t think a bit of mental steel this week will hurt either so the grinders should prosper.

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed for all the PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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