I love LA

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Total Events: 14	Top 10s: 6	Top 25: 8	$3,646,900

Last week:

Good news, bad news, great news and then OK news.

Ahhhhhhhh, the tournament to chase Phil Mickelson!

I’m being hard on him here but T2 is fantastic. With a par-5 finishing hole that was the easiest of the day, I was dreaming of NOT splitting the check FOUR WAYS for second place.

I had no chance of T2 until he birdied Nos. 14, 16 and 17 so I can’t have it both ways! Mickelson was making birdies when nobody else was on Sunday; he just didn’t make one more. Not bad for a guy who hasn’t won since 2013 at The Open Championship.

The best part of last week? I don’t have to ride the PhilCoaster until 2018!

Survived.

Advanced.

Bing Crosby saved me, as requested!

Last Week:

My Choice: Phil Mickelson T2

Close Second: Brandt Snedeker T20, Dustin Johnson T2, Jason Day T2

Outliers: Chesson Hadley T35, J.B. Holmes MC, Nick Watney T47

Gut Shot(s): Patrick Cantlay T35

Rank Outsider(s): Matt Jones MC, James Hahn T26, Brandon Harkins T15

This week:

The Confidence Factor should give you plenty of clues and angles for one of the great classic courses.

Riviera Country Club has crowned a couple of champions from off the radar since 2013 with John Merrick and James Hahn. They are only two of four winners this century who picked up their first TOUR win at this event.

There are some big-boy, heavy-hitters in this field and a few knocked off the rust last week at Pebble Beach.

Dustin Johnson is the landlord here this week as he’s flushed SEVEN top-10 finishes from 10 career starts and defends. He’ll look to join Phil Mickelson as the last player to do so (2008-09). Johnson was off the pace last week and yet, only ONE guy beat him. I would have been SUPER MAD if I played him in this format last week. I know that pain as I did play him when James Hahn beat him in a playoff in 2015.

Sigh.

Check out The Confidence Factor for more details.

No pro-am this week but over 7,300 yards of canyon, elevation changes, barranca, kikuyu grass, doglegs, tough fairways and smallish greens.

As Rob Bolton pointed out, the average winner here needs five tries prior to his first victory.

Or as I would say: Experience is a factor this week.

My Choice: Dustin Johnson

Close Second: Paul Casey, Chez Reavie, Thomas Pieters

Outliers: Jimmy Walker, Jason Kokrak, James Hahn

Gut Shot(s): Adam Scott

Rank Outsider(s): Sangmoon Bae, Martin Laird, K.J. Choi

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Which Californian do I burn this week?

Good question. When you’re not sure, go safe and stayhyper-local for an excellent compromise. Those of you who didn’t fire Mickelson last week will have some history to overcome but he’s playing well enough to overcome that.

Find Ball-Strikers

Nobody makes a ton of putts on Poa annua so find guys who will have the most chances to make easy pars. With smallish greens, those who hit the most of them should occupy the upper reaches of the leaderboard. The par-3 holes are no picnic either this week!

Why DJ?

I’m using the same theory that I used last week for Mickelson. He is absolutely dominant here and it’s not a field as deep as a major. There is also zero pressure on him to perform and I’m guessing he’ll be a bit geeked up after not winning last week. It’s a home game and he has all the tools in the tool box to defend. I have zero concerns about the final round (minus his amateur partner, father-in-law Wayne Gretzky who WD last minute Sunday) and think he’ll do this business again this week.

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed for all the PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!