OAD — Waste Management Phoenix Open

Like the crowd at No. 16 this week, we have a fine selection to choose from in OAD.

Some will stand out like sore thumbs.

Some will try and blend in.

Choose wisely my friends!

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
       
Total Events: 12 Top 10s: 5 Top 25: 6 $3,078,460

Last week:

Wow, that sucked.

If you needed proof there are no guarantees or “shoulds” in fantasy golf, there’s your answer.

Jon Rahm was cruising along, singing a song, walking in a winter Rahmderland.

He was one off the lead after 36 holes.

And then the weekend hit.

And then it fell apart, 75-77.

I’ve played two, top-10 players in the world in 12 events and haven’t collected $100k combined from them.

What a stupid I am.

Everyone serves as an example in life even if it’s a bad example.

I hope you’re learning from my mistakes and minimizing your own.

My Choice: Jon Rahm – T29

Close Second: Gary Woodland – T12, Kyle Stanley – T51, Jhonattan Vegas – MC

Outliers: Bud Cauley – T-58, Ollie Schniederjans – MC

Gut Shot(s): Russell Knox – T29

Rank Outsider(s): Robert Streb – 66th, Nick Watney – T-58, Lucas Glover – T67

An absolute tire fire and that’s an insult to tire fires everywhere…

This week:

The biggest party on TOUR will require a fair bit of concentration and bogey avoidance. With only three, par-five holes in play, it will be one less chance to make up for dropped shots. The finishing holes bring out all the feels and a bit of experience conquering them will not hurt. There have been a few first-time winners here recently so course historians won’t have it all to themselves this week.

Check out The Confidence Factor and My Preview for more details.

With the average score riding at 15-under-par, that’s almost four-under per round so par is out the window this week.

Immaculate weather and course conditions will reward those who find the fairways and proper areas of the expanded greens.

Those greens will run perfectly and briskly which means average putters just have to get it on line and watch it go!

At 7,266 yards, it should open the door to all styles but those who give it  knock from tee-to-green should dominate.

My Choice: Alex Noren

Close Second: J.B. Holmes, Ryan Palmer, Webb Simpson

Outliers: Martin Laird, Zach Johnson, Austin Cook

Gut Shot(s): Rickie Fowler, Harris English

Rank Outsider(s): Michael Kim, Hunter Mahan, Beau Hossler

 Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Facts:

Did you read about the new rule that every TOUR event now requires a playoff? Just kidding but the last two years have seen Matsuyama come from three shots and four shots off the pace to force one each. He’s won both. Better find someone not afraid to get low on Sunday!

Following the Lead

Everyone and their alter-ego will be lining up Matsuyama this week and rightfully so. The major question for gamers will be to fade this move or play defense and go with the herd. As I pointed out last week, there are no guarantees in fantasy golf but there is strategy. The odds of winning three in a row are immensely against based on TOUR and event history. Remember, the game is called ONE, not won, and Done. He can still cash a fine check. Use him wisely!

Where have I been?

As most of you know, I’m now on board at PGATOUR.COM and will be handling The Confidence Factor every week plus post-round fantasy wrap-ups, The Emergency 9, Thursday through Sunday.

You should find some helpful hints in those pieces to navigate the waters of fantasy golf.

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed for all the PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

 

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!

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