OAD — Farmers Insurance Open

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf.

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

2018 Thermometer:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
       
Total Events: 11 Top 10s: 5 Top 25: 6 $3,034,588

Well, well, well, LOOKY HERE at all of this false hope that will follow me on through the 2018 part of the schedule!

Last week:

Jason Dufner never got on track and couldn’t replicate the form he found here two years ago. I don’t take any solace in having Jon Rahm in the “close second” category as he was the best player in the field. Maybe I’m just angry that I didn’t pull the trigger on him in the easiest field he’ll face this year. Well, I’m not. Playing Jon Rahm from here on out won’t involve any field considerations. He’s that good.

My Choice: Jason Dufner – T36

Close Second: Webb Simpson – T36, Jon Rahm – WIN, Brendan Steele – T20

Outliers: Adam Hadwin – T3, Chez Reavie – T36

Gut Shot(s): Bud Cauley – T14

Rank Outsider(s): Austin Cook (54-hole leader) T14, J.J. Spaun – MC, Talor Gooch – T67

 

This week:

Rough.

Tight Fairways.

Firm, fast greens.

7,698 yards three times.

Whatever.

Check out The Confidence Factor  and My Preview for more details.

Par will be a decent score this week so saving them is a big deal. This track isn’t for the faint of heart  so find a guy who won’t be grinding to make them all week.

Pros who can get it down the fairway and find GIR should have the best of chances. There are PLENTY of guys I have already burned that would fit this week so I hope you’re better prepared than I am!

My Choice: Jon Rahm

Close Second: Gary Woodland, Kyle Stanley, Jhonattan Vegas

Outliers: Bud Cauley, Ollie Schniederjans

Gut Shot(s): Russell Knox

Rank Outsider(s): Robert Streb, Nick Watney, Lucas Glover

 

Key Questions this Week:

Fade or follow, I’m not worried either way!

Facts:

Tiger Woods has won eight tournaments on this course including the 2008 U.S. Open. He owns the course record (62) and shares the tournament scoring record (266), both set in 1999.

Go Big or Go Home?

I’d stick with go big off the tee! Everyone minus Charles Howell III (15-15) has their warts here. Patrick Rodgers was the 54-hole leader last year. In 2016, it was Scott Brown. I’m going to lean on a big hitter with course experience, as I’ve noted above. There are big-name players in the field that have as many great finishes as they do head-scratchers!

Following the Lead

This event used to be a course-form dream. I was shocked at home many youngsters popped in last year, including the winner, Rahm. I’m burning the Spaniard this week because I’m not going to use him in the majors or WGC events. I usually don’t use defending champs there is nothing usual about Rahm. I’m piling on and taking my chances.

Where have I been?

As most of you know, I’m now on board at PGATOUR.COM and will be handling The Confidence Factor every week plus post-round fantasy wrap-ups, The Emergency 9, Thursday through Sunday.

You should find some helpful hints in those pieces to navigate the waters of fantasy golf.

Don’t forget to check Rob Bolton’s Twitter feed and PGATOUR.COM/Fantasy for more info!

Argue? Disagree? Whatever is clever!

You do you.

I’ll do me.

We can learn from each other.

Thanks for reading!

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