WGC-Bridgestone Invitational OAD

08-02-17

The final WGC event of the 2016-17 season returns to its normal place on the calendar and to the same course for the 18th time in 19 years.

Big-boy event with a 76-player field plus some weather issues doesn’t change my theory this week: a premium player will win.

One-and-done

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

Season total: $3,954,879; 38 events

  • Wins:
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds:
  • Top 10s: 10
  • Top 25s: 17
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Event Golfer Place Money
       
Safeway Open Grayson Murray MC $0
CIMB Classic Hideki Matsuyama T-2 $756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions Martin Kaymer T-40 $62,000
Sanderson Farms Patton Kizzire MC $0
Shriners Chris Kirk T-61 $14,190
OHL Mayakoba  Emiliano Grillo T-10 $175,000
RSM Classic Russell Henley T-10 $150,000
SBS TOC Brandt Snedeker T-14 $122,000
Sony Open Charles Howell, III T-8 $180,000
CB Challenge Jamie Lovemark MC $0
Farmers Insurance Jimmy Walker MC $0
WMPO Brendan Steele T-16 $90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson 65th $15,120
Genesis Open Charl Schwartzel MC $0
Honda Classic Russell Knox MC $0
WGC-MC Justin Rose T-38 $64,000
Valspar Bill Haas T-41 $21,451
Arnold Palmer Henrik Stenson MC $0
Puerto Rico Open Luke List T-37 $12,900
WGC-Match Play Rory McIlroy T-30 $74,000
Shell Houston Open Jon Rahm T-10 $182,000
Masters Jordan Spieth T-11 $223,200
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar T-11 $114,045
Valero Texas Open Charley Hoffman T-40 $21,727
Zurich Classic Thomas Pieters MC $0
Wells Fargo Kevin Kisner MC $0
THE PLAYERS Sergio Garcia T-30 $65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson Brooks Koepka T-50 $18,090
DEAN & DELUCA Bud Cauley T-41 $24,050
Memorial Dustin Johnson MC $0
FedEx St. Jude Classic Billy Horschel T-4 $252,000
U.S. Open Rickie Fowler T-4 $420,334
Travelers Paul Casey T-5 $248,200
Quicken Loans Patrick Reed T-17 $99,400
Greenbrier Tony Finau T-7 $228,975
John Deere Classic Daniel Berger T-5 $189,840
The Open Adam Scott T-22 $88,000
RBC Canadian Bubba Watson T-42 $42,200

 

Thermometer:

I’m putting the tortoise and hare fable to the ultimate test this year.

#IWantWinners

Frankly, I haven’t been close on a Sunday since Daniel Berger slipped to T-5 at JDC. Without many examples it’s easy to remember the one…

Sigh.

Last week:

Bubba Watson started off on MAYJAH FIYAH with 66 before slowly fading to T-42. He hasn’t fired on any courses this season where he has collected big checks in the past.

Pink/Green/Yellow/Orange balls.

No-sugar diet.

Greenbrier Ambassador.

He’s 110th in SG: Total.

He was 15th last year.

Woof.

Let’s take a look back at my suggestions from RBC Canadian Open:

My Choice: Bubba Watson — T-42

Close Second: Patrick Cantlay — T-48

Outliers: Danny Lee — T-32, Ian Poulter — 3rd, Scott Stallings — T-62

Gut Shot(s): Seamus Power — T-10

Rank Outsiders: Jim Furyk — 75th, Chad Campbell — T-32, Harold Varner, III — T-23

A couple nice ones in there but nothing spectacular.

 

Keys this Week:

It was announced Tuesday that Thursday tee times were already adjusted earlier to avoid weather. Today, they have moved up Friday’s times as well. If this 7,400 par 70 test takes on significant rain this week, it could become even nastier.

Interestingly enough, that’s hardly a big deal this week as the world’s best are assembled for a chance to pocket almost $1.7 million from a prize fund of $9 million and change.

Translation: Big boy golf on a big boy golf produces big boy winners. Dustin Johnson has won three of the last five WGC events. The other two winners were Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day. Do the math. #Ballers.

For you stat guys, DJ went ape last year across the board as he was top 10 in all of the major metrics reinforcing that it takes a full bag to pick up the big check at Firestone South.

With big greens, the putters who can handle super-slick Bent/Poa will feel they have as much of a chance as the flushers who can hit the proper tiers.

With only two par fives that essentially cancel each other out (check my preview here), lean on guys who avoid bogeys and can score on par threes and especially fours.

Last of the Mohicans:

With only seven events (including this week) left, it’s time to release the hounds. With six of those events with monster prize pools, it makes it even easier. Here’s who I have left (OWGR ranking) and thoughts on each:

Jason Day (7) — Yeah, anywhere is fine but his lack of form allows me to keep him dry longer. That’s fine as he has enjoyed East Lake over the years.

Alex Noren (9) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs.

Justin Thomas (14) — He’s in the worst slump of his short career with three MC’s on the bounce but with NO CUT this week, it might be exactly what he needs to be freed up.

Tommy Fleetwood (15) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs. Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (16) — Gamers, he is a member this year and currently checks in at No. 61 in the FEC rankings. He’s eligible, as of today, for the first three FEC Playoff events, if he chooses to play them. There’s no guarantee he will unless he wins this week…

Francesco Molinari (20) — Gamers, he is a member this year and currently checks in at No. 41 in the FEC rankings. He’s eligible, as of today, for the first three FEC Playoff events, if he chooses to play them. There’s no guarantee he will unless he wins this week… Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.

Tyrell Hatton (22) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs. Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.

Louis Oosthuizen (23) — The classic utility man is healthy and makes a great option moving forward. He sits No. 44 on the FEC ranking and will be used for sure (TPC Boston).

Brian Harman (26) — Sitting at No. 9 guarantees his trip to East Lake for The Tour Championship. Georgia native at East Lake doesn’t sound all that ridiculous. Stay tuned.

Marc Leishman (28) — Another Swiss Army Knife that translates on most tracks, the Aussie is No. 13 in the FEC rankings.

Kevin Chappell (29) — His world ranking matches his FEC ranking so he’ll need another decent effort to book his ticket to East Lake again. He lost in an playoff to Rory McIlroy at The Tour Championship last year.

Jason Dufner (30) — He won last time in Ohio at Memorial and has a pair of top 10’s in four tries at Firestone South. He’s also No. 21 in the FEC standings so he should be good for all four Playoff events.

My Weekly Finalists:

My Favorites: You can see the entire list at mikeglasscott.com

My Choice: Branden Grace

Close Second: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Tommy Fleetwood

Outliers:  Marc Leishman, Gary Woodland

Gut Shot(s): Ross Fisher, Chris Wood

Rank Outsiders: Mackenzie Hughes, Kyle Stanley, Jimmy Walker

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them.

No Kuchar, DJ or Spieht????

Right.

All burned.

Read the preview if you need hairs split for THIS event.

The winner this week will be…

A stud who can navigate the first two days of weather delays and puts it together once the weather turns on the weekend. I don’t think more than 10 guys have a chance of winning this week as the cream usually rises to the top.

Should I burn…

Yes.

Leaders, since you don’t have a cut to worry about, you’ll be collecting $$ this week regardless.

Those of you who are chasing, like I am, can’t pick in reverse order like the leaders. It doesn’t matter who you have left at East Lake if you’re not in touching distance.

Get to touching distance first.

Good Luck!

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