08-02-17

The final WGC event of the 2016-17 season returns to its normal place on the calendar and to the same course for the 18th time in 19 years.

Big-boy event with a 76-player field plus some weather issues doesn’t change my theory this week: a premium player will win.

One-and-done

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

Season total: $3,954,879; 38 events

• Wins:
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds:
• Top 10s: 10
• Top 25s: 17
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Safeway Open	Grayson Murray	MC	$0
CIMB Classic	Hideki Matsuyama	T-2	$756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Martin Kaymer	T-40	$62,000
Sanderson Farms	Patton Kizzire	MC	$0
Shriners	Chris Kirk	T-61	$14,190
OHL Mayakoba	Emiliano Grillo	T-10	$175,000
RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T-10	$150,000
SBS TOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-14	$122,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell, III	T-8	$180,000
CB Challenge	Jamie Lovemark	MC	$0
Farmers Insurance	Jimmy Walker	MC	$0
WMPO	Brendan Steele	T-16	$90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	65th	$15,120
Genesis Open	Charl Schwartzel	MC	$0
Honda Classic	Russell Knox	MC	$0
WGC-MC	Justin Rose	T-38	$64,000
Valspar	Bill Haas	T-41	$21,451
Arnold Palmer	Henrik Stenson	MC	$0
Puerto Rico Open	Luke List	T-37	$12,900
WGC-Match Play	Rory McIlroy	T-30	$74,000
Shell Houston Open	Jon Rahm	T-10	$182,000
Masters	Jordan Spieth	T-11	$223,200
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-11	$114,045
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	T-40	$21,727
Zurich Classic	Thomas Pieters	MC	$0
Wells Fargo	Kevin Kisner	MC	$0
THE PLAYERS	Sergio Garcia	T-30	$65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson	Brooks Koepka	T-50	$18,090
DEAN & DELUCA	Bud Cauley	T-41	$24,050
Memorial	Dustin Johnson	MC	$0
FedEx St. Jude Classic	Billy Horschel	T-4	$252,000
U.S. Open	Rickie Fowler	T-4	$420,334
Travelers	Paul Casey	T-5	$248,200
Quicken Loans	Patrick Reed	T-17	$99,400
Greenbrier	Tony Finau	T-7	$228,975
John Deere Classic	Daniel Berger	T-5	$189,840
The Open	Adam Scott	T-22	$88,000
RBC Canadian	Bubba Watson	T-42	$42,200

 

Thermometer:

I’m putting the tortoise and hare fable to the ultimate test this year.

#IWantWinners

Frankly, I haven’t been close on a Sunday since Daniel Berger slipped to T-5 at JDC. Without many examples it’s easy to remember the one…

Sigh.

Last week:

Bubba Watson started off on MAYJAH FIYAH with 66 before slowly fading to T-42. He hasn’t fired on any courses this season where he has collected big checks in the past.

Pink/Green/Yellow/Orange balls.

No-sugar diet.

Greenbrier Ambassador.

He’s 110th in SG: Total.

He was 15th last year.

Woof.

Let’s take a look back at my suggestions from RBC Canadian Open:

My Choice: Bubba Watson — T-42

Close Second: Patrick Cantlay — T-48

Outliers: Danny Lee — T-32, Ian Poulter — 3rd, Scott Stallings — T-62

Gut Shot(s): Seamus Power — T-10

Rank Outsiders: Jim Furyk — 75th, Chad Campbell — T-32, Harold Varner, III — T-23

A couple nice ones in there but nothing spectacular.

 

Keys this Week:

It was announced Tuesday that Thursday tee times were already adjusted earlier to avoid weather. Today, they have moved up Friday’s times as well. If this 7,400 par 70 test takes on significant rain this week, it could become even nastier.

Interestingly enough, that’s hardly a big deal this week as the world’s best are assembled for a chance to pocket almost $1.7 million from a prize fund of $9 million and change.

Translation: Big boy golf on a big boy golf produces big boy winners. Dustin Johnson has won three of the last five WGC events. The other two winners were Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day. Do the math. #Ballers.

For you stat guys, DJ went ape last year across the board as he was top 10 in all of the major metrics reinforcing that it takes a full bag to pick up the big check at Firestone South.

With big greens, the putters who can handle super-slick Bent/Poa will feel they have as much of a chance as the flushers who can hit the proper tiers.

With only two par fives that essentially cancel each other out (check my preview here), lean on guys who avoid bogeys and can score on par threes and especially fours.

Last of the Mohicans:

With only seven events (including this week) left, it’s time to release the hounds. With six of those events with monster prize pools, it makes it even easier. Here’s who I have left (OWGR ranking) and thoughts on each:

Jason Day (7) — Yeah, anywhere is fine but his lack of form allows me to keep him dry longer. That’s fine as he has enjoyed East Lake over the years.

Alex Noren (9) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs.

Justin Thomas (14) — He’s in the worst slump of his short career with three MC’s on the bounce but with NO CUT this week, it might be exactly what he needs to be freed up.

Tommy Fleetwood (15) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs. Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello (16) — Gamers, he is a member this year and currently checks in at No. 61 in the FEC rankings. He’s eligible, as of today, for the first three FEC Playoff events, if he chooses to play them. There’s no guarantee he will unless he wins this week…

Francesco Molinari (20) — Gamers, he is a member this year and currently checks in at No. 41 in the FEC rankings. He’s eligible, as of today, for the first three FEC Playoff events, if he chooses to play them. There’s no guarantee he will unless he wins this week… Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.

Tyrell Hatton (22) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs. Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.

Louis Oosthuizen (23) — The classic utility man is healthy and makes a great option moving forward. He sits No. 44 on the FEC ranking and will be used for sure (TPC Boston).

Brian Harman (26) — Sitting at No. 9 guarantees his trip to East Lake for The Tour Championship. Georgia native at East Lake doesn’t sound all that ridiculous. Stay tuned.

Marc Leishman (28) — Another Swiss Army Knife that translates on most tracks, the Aussie is No. 13 in the FEC rankings.

Kevin Chappell (29) — His world ranking matches his FEC ranking so he’ll need another decent effort to book his ticket to East Lake again. He lost in an playoff to Rory McIlroy at The Tour Championship last year.

Jason Dufner (30) — He won last time in Ohio at Memorial and has a pair of top 10’s in four tries at Firestone South. He’s also No. 21 in the FEC standings so he should be good for all four Playoff events.

My Weekly Finalists:

My Favorites: You can see the entire list at mikeglasscott.com

My Choice: Branden Grace

Close Second: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Tommy Fleetwood

Outliers:  Marc Leishman, Gary Woodland

Gut Shot(s): Ross Fisher, Chris Wood

Rank Outsiders: Mackenzie Hughes, Kyle Stanley, Jimmy Walker

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them.

No Kuchar, DJ or Spieht????

Right.

All burned.

Read the preview if you need hairs split for THIS event.

The winner this week will be…

A stud who can navigate the first two days of weather delays and puts it together once the weather turns on the weekend. I don’t think more than 10 guys have a chance of winning this week as the cream usually rises to the top.

Should I burn…

Yes.

Leaders, since you don’t have a cut to worry about, you’ll be collecting $$ this week regardless.

Those of you who are chasing, like I am, can’t pick in reverse order like the leaders. It doesn’t matter who you have left at East Lake if you’re not in touching distance.

Get to touching distance first.

Good Luck!