The final WGC event of the 2016-17 season returns to its normal place on the calendar and to the same course for the 18th time in 19 years.
Big-boy event with a 76-player field plus some weather issues doesn’t change my theory this week: a premium player will win.
Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.
Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.
Last Season: Il Disastro
Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events
- Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
- Seconds: 0
- Thirds: 1
- Top 10s: 9
- Top 25s: 18
- MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)
2016-17 season: Brand New Day
Season total: $3,954,879; 38 events
- Seconds: 1
- Top 10s: 10
- Top 25s: 17
- MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).
|Safeway Open||Grayson Murray||MC||$0|
|CIMB Classic||Hideki Matsuyama||T-2||$756,000|
|WGC-HSBC Champions||Martin Kaymer||T-40||$62,000|
|Sanderson Farms||Patton Kizzire||MC||$0|
|OHL Mayakoba||Emiliano Grillo||T-10||$175,000|
|RSM Classic||Russell Henley||T-10||$150,000|
|SBS TOC||Brandt Snedeker||T-14||$122,000|
|Sony Open||Charles Howell, III||T-8||$180,000|
|CB Challenge||Jamie Lovemark||MC||$0|
|Farmers Insurance||Jimmy Walker||MC||$0|
|AT&T Pebble Beach||Phil Mickelson||65th||$15,120|
|Genesis Open||Charl Schwartzel||MC||$0|
|Honda Classic||Russell Knox||MC||$0|
|Arnold Palmer||Henrik Stenson||MC||$0|
|Puerto Rico Open||Luke List||T-37||$12,900|
|WGC-Match Play||Rory McIlroy||T-30||$74,000|
|Shell Houston Open||Jon Rahm||T-10||$182,000|
|RBC Heritage||Matt Kuchar||T-11||$114,045|
|Valero Texas Open||Charley Hoffman||T-40||$21,727|
|Zurich Classic||Thomas Pieters||MC||$0|
|Wells Fargo||Kevin Kisner||MC||$0|
|THE PLAYERS||Sergio Garcia||T-30||$65,205|
|AT&T Byron Nelson||Brooks Koepka||T-50||$18,090|
|DEAN & DELUCA||Bud Cauley||T-41||$24,050|
|FedEx St. Jude Classic||Billy Horschel||T-4||$252,000|
|U.S. Open||Rickie Fowler||T-4||$420,334|
|Quicken Loans||Patrick Reed||T-17||$99,400|
|John Deere Classic||Daniel Berger||T-5||$189,840|
|The Open||Adam Scott||T-22||$88,000|
|RBC Canadian||Bubba Watson||T-42||$42,200|
I’m putting the tortoise and hare fable to the ultimate test this year.
Frankly, I haven’t been close on a Sunday since Daniel Berger slipped to T-5 at JDC. Without many examples it’s easy to remember the one…
Bubba Watson started off on MAYJAH FIYAH with 66 before slowly fading to T-42. He hasn’t fired on any courses this season where he has collected big checks in the past.
He’s 110th in SG: Total.
He was 15th last year.
Let’s take a look back at my suggestions from RBC Canadian Open:
My Choice: Bubba Watson — T-42
Close Second: Patrick Cantlay — T-48
Outliers: Danny Lee — T-32, Ian Poulter — 3rd, Scott Stallings — T-62
Gut Shot(s): Seamus Power — T-10
Rank Outsiders: Jim Furyk — 75th, Chad Campbell — T-32, Harold Varner, III — T-23
A couple nice ones in there but nothing spectacular.
Keys this Week:
It was announced Tuesday that Thursday tee times were already adjusted earlier to avoid weather. Today, they have moved up Friday’s times as well. If this 7,400 par 70 test takes on significant rain this week, it could become even nastier.
Interestingly enough, that’s hardly a big deal this week as the world’s best are assembled for a chance to pocket almost $1.7 million from a prize fund of $9 million and change.
Translation: Big boy golf on a big boy golf produces big boy winners. Dustin Johnson has won three of the last five WGC events. The other two winners were Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day. Do the math. #Ballers.
For you stat guys, DJ went ape last year across the board as he was top 10 in all of the major metrics reinforcing that it takes a full bag to pick up the big check at Firestone South.
With big greens, the putters who can handle super-slick Bent/Poa will feel they have as much of a chance as the flushers who can hit the proper tiers.
With only two par fives that essentially cancel each other out (check my preview here), lean on guys who avoid bogeys and can score on par threes and especially fours.
Last of the Mohicans:
With only seven events (including this week) left, it’s time to release the hounds. With six of those events with monster prize pools, it makes it even easier. Here’s who I have left (OWGR ranking) and thoughts on each:
Jason Day (7) — Yeah, anywhere is fine but his lack of form allows me to keep him dry longer. That’s fine as he has enjoyed East Lake over the years.
Alex Noren (9) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs.
Justin Thomas (14) — He’s in the worst slump of his short career with three MC’s on the bounce but with NO CUT this week, it might be exactly what he needs to be freed up.
Tommy Fleetwood (15) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs. Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello (16) — Gamers, he is a member this year and currently checks in at No. 61 in the FEC rankings. He’s eligible, as of today, for the first three FEC Playoff events, if he chooses to play them. There’s no guarantee he will unless he wins this week…
Francesco Molinari (20) — Gamers, he is a member this year and currently checks in at No. 41 in the FEC rankings. He’s eligible, as of today, for the first three FEC Playoff events, if he chooses to play them. There’s no guarantee he will unless he wins this week… Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.
Tyrell Hatton (22) — This week or next gamers! He’s not a member THIS YEAR so he’s not eligible for the FEC Playoffs. Ctrl-C; Ctrl-V.
Louis Oosthuizen (23) — The classic utility man is healthy and makes a great option moving forward. He sits No. 44 on the FEC ranking and will be used for sure (TPC Boston).
Brian Harman (26) — Sitting at No. 9 guarantees his trip to East Lake for The Tour Championship. Georgia native at East Lake doesn’t sound all that ridiculous. Stay tuned.
Marc Leishman (28) — Another Swiss Army Knife that translates on most tracks, the Aussie is No. 13 in the FEC rankings.
Kevin Chappell (29) — His world ranking matches his FEC ranking so he’ll need another decent effort to book his ticket to East Lake again. He lost in an playoff to Rory McIlroy at The Tour Championship last year.
Jason Dufner (30) — He won last time in Ohio at Memorial and has a pair of top 10’s in four tries at Firestone South. He’s also No. 21 in the FEC standings so he should be good for all four Playoff events.
My Weekly Finalists:
My Favorites: You can see the entire list at mikeglasscott.com
My Choice: Branden Grace
Close Second: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Tommy Fleetwood
Outliers: Marc Leishman, Gary Woodland
Gut Shot(s): Ross Fisher, Chris Wood
Rank Outsiders: Mackenzie Hughes, Kyle Stanley, Jimmy Walker
QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:
Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them.
No Kuchar, DJ or Spieht????
Read the preview if you need hairs split for THIS event.
The winner this week will be…
A stud who can navigate the first two days of weather delays and puts it together once the weather turns on the weekend. I don’t think more than 10 guys have a chance of winning this week as the cream usually rises to the top.
Should I burn…
Leaders, since you don’t have a cut to worry about, you’ll be collecting $$ this week regardless.
Those of you who are chasing, like I am, can’t pick in reverse order like the leaders. It doesn’t matter who you have left at East Lake if you’re not in touching distance.
Get to touching distance first.