06.07.17

After going close last week at Memorial, Rickie Fowler should make gamers grind on whether or not to use him this week.

One-and-done

 

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

 

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

 

Season total: $2,385,930; 30 events

• Wins:
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds:
• Top 10s: 5
• Top 25s: 7
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Safeway Open	Grayson Murray	MC	$0
CIMB Classic	Hideki Matsuyama	T-2	$756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Martin Kaymer	T-40	$62,000
Sanderson Farms	Patton Kizzire	MC	$0
Shriners	Chris Kirk	T-61	$14,190
OHL Mayakoba	Emiliano Grillo	T-10	$175,000
RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T-10	$150,000
SBS TOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-14	$122,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell, III	T-8	$180,000
CB Challenge	Jamie Lovemark	MC	$0
Farmers Insurance	Jimmy Walker	MC	$0
WMPO	Brendan Steele	T-16	$90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	65th	$15,120
Genesis Open	Charl Schwartzel	MC	$0
Honda Classic	Russell Knox	MC	$0
WGC-MC	Justin Rose	T-38	$64,000
Valspar	Bill Haas	T-41	$21,451
Arnold Palmer	Henrik Stenson	MC	$0
Puerto Rico Open	Luke List	T-37	$12,900
WGC-Match Play	Rory McIlroy	T-30	$74,000
Shell Houston Open	Jon Rahm	T-10	$182,000
Masters	Jordan Spieth	T-11	$223,200
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-11	$114,045
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	T-40	$21,727
Zurich Classic	Thomas Pieters	MC	$0
Wells Fargo	Kevin Kisner	MC	$0
THE PLAYERS	Sergio Garcia	T-30	$65,205
AT&T Byron Nelson	Brooks Koepka	T-50	$18,090
DEAN & DELUCA	Bud Cauley	T-41	$24,050
Memorial	Dustin Johnson	MC	$0

 

Thermometer:

I went with Dustin Johnson last week and he MC.

Yes, that Dustin Johnson.

So much for throwing caution to the wind, taking chances and getting back into the fight.

With three majors, four FEC events and a WGC event, I’ll need to be perfect to save my season.

What’s left of it.

Whatever.

 

Last week:

My Choice: Dustin Johnson — MC

Close Second: Tony Finau — T-40

Outlier: Emiliano Grillo — T-40

Gut Shot: Sean O’Hair — T-52

Rank Outsiders: Patrick Cantlay — T-35, Morgan Hoffmann — MC, Jamie Lovemark — T-10, Scott Piercy — MC.

 

Keys this Week:

For the second week in a row we see that a difficult course can produce first-time winners.

Last week firm and fast conditions saw only three players find double digits under par.

There have been nine players double digits under par in this event since 2012.

#NOYNE

With only two par fives this week, one being the easiest hole on the course, par four scoring and making pars should be the angle.

And of course, guys who play well when par is a decent score.

We’ll see the return of the birdie makers at TPC River Highlands in two weeks.

 

My Weekly Finalists:

I explain in more details in my preview what I’m looking for on the course.

 

My Favorites:

Rickie Fowler: He’s the best player in the field for my money. I’m inclined to “save him” for Erin Hills but he was close last week on a course which has eaten his lunch (MC X 3) the last three years.

Phil Mickelson: It’s hard to believe that he hasn’t won since Muirfield in 2013 and I won’t blame you if you’re going to holster him for Royal Birkdale next month. With podium finishes here the last three years I can’t look away.

Brooks Koepka: The only finish outside the top 16 in his last two months is when he was my OAD at AT&T Byron Nelson. The curse is very real. You know what else is real? Koepka loves it here with T-19, T-3 and T-2 last year in his only three visits.

Francesco Molinari: No Italian has ever won on the PGA Tour but I’m not scared. I maybe STOOPID but I’m not scared as too many first-timers have won here and not many have been more consistent recently.

Billy Horschel: He didn’t show up last year after three consecutive finishes inside the top 10. He returns this year and does so with a W under his belt three weeks ago.

 

My Choice: Billy Horschel

Close Second: Francesco Molinari

Outlier: Brian Gay

Gut Shot: Ian Poulter

Rank Outsiders: J.T. Poston, Ben Crane, Peter Uihlein, Harold Varner, III.

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

Remember, if you don’t see a guy in my choices, it’s more than likely that I have already selected them.

It has to be Koepka or Mickelson this week, right?

No.

They make the most SENSE, no doubt, but I don’t think we can classify either one of them as playing lights-out and the obvious choice. Course historians are drooling this week to say the least while the form guys are still scratching their heads.

Why have you left Adam Scott off the list?

Not a terrible question but there is better fits once summer hits including all three majors, WGC-BI and the FEC Playoffs.

Should I burn…

Throw a dart.

Drop a pen.

Have your dog pick.

48 weeks. 48 guys. Plenty to choose from!

I always believe this is a tough week in this format because of the U.S. Open looming right around the corner. The safety-first picks are Mickelson and Koepka and if I was leading (ahahahahahahahahahaha) I wouldn’t think twice about loading up.

If you’re chasing like I am, taking a chance on the flier is great but we’re running out of season quicker than you think. I’d take a scroll through the OWGR.com or FEC standings to start mapping out who is left. You don’t want to get to the PGA Championship and find out you have 12 premium players left for six events!

 

Good Luck!