04-12-17

Harbour Town Golf Links was one of Pete Dye’s first creations. Heck, he even had Jack Nicklaus help him out.

Arnold Palmer has won here.

So has Boo Weekley.

This will be the 49th edition on the same track so a bit of experience here won’t hurt.

One-and-done

Each week I painfully writhe and wretch trying to figure out the proper strategy to find a player that will hit the top 10. Wins are great but aren’t likely, so I’m satisfied with having a chance to hit the big money. Missed cuts are absolutely the death in this game, but even the surest of things don’t always happen in the reality world of fantasy golf. Remember, fade or follow, it’s up to you.

 

Gamers who are new to OAD must remember that the most lucrative purses, the majors, WGC events, THE PLAYERS and FedExCup Playoffs, are down the road and you’ll need to save some big boys for these events, all 12 of them.

 

 

Last Season: Il Disastro

Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

 

2016-17 season: Brand New Day

 

Season total: $2,142,813; 22 events

• Wins:
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds:
• Top 10s: 5
• Top 25s: 7
• MCs (4): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API).

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Safeway Open	Grayson Murray	MC	$0
CIMB Classic	Hideki Matsuyama	T-2	$756,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Martin Kaymer	T-40	$62,000
Sanderson Farms	Patton Kizzire	MC	$0
Shriners	Chris Kirk	T-61	$14,190
OHL Mayakoba	Emiliano Grillo	T-10	$175,000
RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T-10	$150,000
SBS TOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-14	$122,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell, III	T-8	$180,000
CB Challenge	Jamie Lovemark	MC	$0
Farmers Insurance	Jimmy Walker	MC	$0
WMPO	Brendan Steele	T-16	$90,952
AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	65th	$15,120
Genesis Open	Charl Schwartzel	MC	$0
Honda Classic	Russell Knox	MC	$0
WGC-MC	Justin Rose	T-38	$64,000
Valspar	Bill Haas	T-41	$21,451
Arnold Palmer	Henrik Stenson	MC	$0
Puerto Rico Open	Luke List	T-37	$12,900
WGC-Match Play	Rory McIlroy	T-30	$74,000
Shell Houston Open	Jon Rahm	T-10	$182,000
Masters	Jordan Spieth	T-11	$223,200

 

Thermometer:

 

Last week:

 

My Choice: Jordan Spieth (T-11)

Close Second: Rickie Fowler (T-11)

Outlier: Paul Casey (T-4), Phil Mickelson (T-22)

Gut Shot: Jason Day (T-22)

Rank Outsiders: Charley Hoffman (T-22), Jason Dufner (T-33), Tommy Fleetwood (MC)

It’s tough to stomach as Spieth began the final round in touching distance and never challenged for the lead. Thankfully Fowler went with him because I’ve had enough of my “Close Second” guys kicking “My Choice”‘s ass.

It would have been some story to see him recover from making NOYNE to contend but there’s a reason the winners at Augusta don’t have those on their cards at the end of the week.

It’s fitting that the first time I go with Spieth in this format at Augusta is his worst performance in four tries.

Maybe I should take two weeks off and then quit.

Whatever.

 

Keys this Week:

The lack of length will bring just as many into the fold as the doglegs and tiny greens will eliminate.

I’m leaning experience and class as only six of winners since 1983 have NOT played in the Masters and there’s probably a reason for that.

With the weather being tasty I’m going to lean on the crusty islanders who regularly throw out tasty numbers here. Prevailing winds will help as well as the course is designed with these in mind as opposed to having to fight it all week.

The recent rankings show this joint to be on the difficult side so it’s no wonder class, veteran players seem to do the business. The doglegs and TifEagle greens aren’t going be any easier just because the sun is out and the wind isn’t howling. Better know how to get it around and get it in the hole.

 

My Weekly Finalists:

I explain in more details in my preview what I’m looking for on the course.

Matt Kuchar: His final round at the Masters vaults him to the top this week. It’s amazing what a bit of momentum can do and toss in his win and two other top 10’s the last three years. With a field of just 132 and the usually tough lay out, this makes for an easy one this week.

Kevin Kisner: The last time the weather cooperated he fired 67-64 on the weekend to get into a playoff at 18-under. This will be his second week in a row in his part of the world but this time on his preferred Bermuda.

Charley Hoffman: Knock. Knock. Knock. He was live last week for 54 holes and he’s been in the mix twice on Sunday here in the last few years. Only a 78 kept him from his third top 10 in five starts. He’ll defend next week at Valero so he’s playing well into form.

Russell Henley: These dots aren’t hard to connect either as he won two weeks ago at SHO and was an impressive T-11 at Augusta.

Branden Grace: The defending champ won in just his second time around after T-7 in 2015. He’s 21-under-par in those two events and is a wonderful striker of the ball, like most South Africans.

 

My Choice: Matt Kuchar

Close Second: Charley Hoffman

Outlier: Luke Donald

Gut Shot: Russell Knox

Rank Outsiders: Scott Brown, Webb Simpson  

 

 

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK:

 

Where’s Snedeker, Haas, McGirt?

Each week somebody has to be left off, sadly.

Sneds has struggled recently for big finishes on non-Poa surfaces.

Haas has only recently moved from fade to follow at this event but should make the weekend.

McGirt has to break the South Carolina jinx here was well as no resident has ever won.

 

Should I burn…

Throw a dart.

Drop a pen.

Have your dog pick.

48 weeks. 48 guys. Plenty to choose from!

You wanna “burn” Kaymer THIS week? OK, he’s won the THE PLAYERS, U.S. Open and PGA but by all means, throw him in this week on a track he’s never played. He’ll probably win in his first trip here just like Boo Weekley did in 2007. Or finish T-7 like Grace did two years ago.

I try to play guys who fit form and function and I will NEVER stop you from playing your gut feeling.

My gut is bigger than your gut.

My gut will beat up your gut.

 

Good Luck!