07-27-16

 

With a swing and a miss last week north of the border I’m leaving nothing to chance this week at the PGA Championship at Baltusrol.

Well, maybe a slight chance…

With the biggest, nastiest field in golf teeing it up this week, time to revisit who I have left to burn from the OWGR current top 40:

 

3.) Jordan Spieth

11.) Justin Rose

12.) Branden Grace

20.) Zach Johnson

22.) Jim Furyk

23.) Charl Schwartzel

24.) Chris Wood

25.) Scott Piercy

26.) Russell Knox

27.) Rafael Cabrera Bello

30.) Ben-An

32.) Bill Haas

34.) Kevin Na

35.) Andy Sullivan

37.) Emiliano Grillo

39.) Lee Westwood

40.) Justin Thomas

The good news is I have these players remaining.

The bad news is I have these players remaining.

 

Event	Golfer	Place	Money
Frys.com	Brooks Koepka	T-41	$21,000
Shriners	Scott Piercy	T-25	$44,832
CIMB	Anirban Lahiri	T-21	$78,400
WGC-HSBC Champions	Adam Scott	T-70	$42,000
Sanderson Farms	Patrick Rodgers	T-20	$41,356
OHL Mayakoba	Patton Kizzire	T-58	$13,764
RSM	Brendon de Jonge	T-33	$27,049
HTOC	Brandt Snedeker	T-3	$381,000
Sony	Kevin Kisner	T-5	$220,400
CB Challenge	Ryan Palmer	T-17	$75,897
Farmers	Phil Mickelson	MC	$0
Waste Management	Hideki Matsuyama	WIN	$1,170,000
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jimmy Walker	T-11	$143,500
NTO	Dustin Johnson	4th	$326,400
Honda	Luke Donald	T-61	$13,115
WGC-Cadillac Champ	Henrik Stenson	T-28	$79,428
Valspar	Danny Willett	T-22	$52,959
Arnold Palmer	Scott Brown	T-27	$41,934
WGC-Dell Match Play	Rickie Fowler	T-53	$63,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graham DeLaet	T-11	$66,000
Shell Houston Open	Louis Oosthuizen	MC	$0
Masters	Bubba Watson	T-37	$50,250
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	T-9	$147,500
Valero Texas Open	Charley Hoffman	WIN	$1,116,000
Zurich Classic	Daniel Berger	T-20	$64,909
Wells Fargo	J.B. Holmes	T-53	$16,589
THE PLAYERS	Rory McIlroy	T-12	212,625
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Dufner	T-24	54,020
Colonial	Kevin Chappell	MC	$0
Memorial	Paul Casey	MC	$0
FESJC	Gary Woodland	MC	$0
U.S. Open	Jason Day	T-8	$247,806
Quicken Loans	Patrick Reed	T-39	$28,290
Barracuda	Jon Rahm	MDF	$6,420
WGC-BI	Shane Lowry	T-36	$73,500
Barbasol	Kyle Reifers	T-35	$15,808
The Open	Sergio Garcia	T-5	$310,797
RBC Canadian Open	David Hearn	MC	$0
PGA Championship

 

Thoughts on Baltusrol

I’ve read and retweeted multiple angles on the course this week but I’m going to stick to one common thought: It ain’t 2005 and nobody has a course horse “advantage” this week other than maybe Phil Mickelson due to his relationship with the folks at Baltusrol.

Some have said the scoring conditions will be easier than Oakmont. Well then, that’s hardly news as Oakmont is one of the toughest courses on the PLANET.

Some have said the traps and rough won’t be as penal off the fairway. With almost 7,500 yards in play and only par 70, it’s not exactly PGA West either.

Some have suggested that the greens will be difficult to read because of nooks and crannies plus humps and bumps that players won’t be used to or see. Since nobody has racked up tons of rounds here the greens should wipe out the great putters as their advantage will be muted.

I’ll suggest this: There’s no faking it around almost 7,500 yards, five inches of rough, greens running at almost 14 and over $10 million of prize money on the table.

As with all great golf courses, and this joint surely and easily qualifies, most games should be able to compete.

When in doubt I prefer players who are powerful off the tee and peg GIR. The more GIR hit, the more birdie chances and two-putt pars.

With only TWO par fives in play, par will be a friendly score this week unless they move the tees up and allow the greens to slow. It’s a major at a proud, historic club so I doubt that’s going to happen.

2016 Season 

$5,216,358; 38 events

• Wins: 2
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 8
• Top 25s: 16
• MC: 6 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian)

 

Last week: Whoa, Canada.

David Hearn, MC ($0)

 

Thermometer:

What’s absolute zero on the metric system scale then?

 

Keys this Week:

• This is why you “saved” them all year
• Grinders
• Experienced ball-strikers

 

My Five Finalists:

1.) Rory McIlroy*

2.) Dustin Johnson*

3.) Sergio Garcia*

4.) Justin Rose

5.) Branden Grace

*burned

 

My Choice: Branden Grace

Close Second: Justin Rose

Long Shot Special: Andy Sullivan

Analysis: Based on what I have remaining, I’m going to play a power player who’s been in recent form on courses just like this one (Oakmont, Firestone South). My plan is working on paper but that’s not helping me in the standings. It was difficult to leave Sullivan out this week but it came down to, for me at this stage of the game, who has the better chance of winning the tournament.

Stratagem: For the leaders in the OAD leagues, it’s business as usual. Split the hairs to pick your best shot to hold your lead into the final three weeks of the regular season. Most big-time players have their strategy already mapped out for the run in and Playoffs so this week shouldn’t be “confusing” but rather smartly executed. Make those behind you make the difficult decision of trying to chase down your lead.

As for those of you just off the pace, I’d recommend a class player that’s not going to be bothered by a big course, big field and big pressure on Sunday. I understand that the three major champs this season are first-timers but Willett, DJ and Stenson are hardly chopped liver in fantasy land. This is NOT Curtis, Micheel and Weir from 2003 by any means. With five big money events left, it’s not time, in my opinion, to be discussing the merits of David Lingmerth or Justin Thomas this week. That’s not a knock.

Go big.

Go bigger than that.

 

QUESTION OF THE WEEK: What about ________ (add premium, top 10 player in the world here) this week?

 ANSWER(S) OF THE WEEK:

Yes. Fire at will. It’s a major. It’s major money.

 

• I’m leaving Spieth out this week because I know once he hits his stride again he can rake at DBC or East Lake.
• I’m leaning ball-striker/power this week and Grace more than fits that description.
• For the Playoffs I’ll have Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel and Justin Thomas, just to name a few.
• Remember, there are only four Playoff events so the time for “saving” players is long gone.

Your selection this week should reflect the gravitas of the tournament.

Good luck!