Wordy, but accurate.

Time to put on your blue suede shoes and board the plane.

The field of 70 has one mission this week: Make the field of 50 next week. Having a big week will ensure that happens.

FedExCup St. Jude Championship

FedExCup Playoffs Event No. 1

TPC Southwind

Memphis, Tennessee

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This Week – FedEx St. Jude Championship

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

Wash. Rinse. Repeat. If Scottie Scheffler (6/1) is in the field, he’s on the top of the heap. Check the stats below for more proof. With solo fourteenth as his best result, this is hardly his happy hunting ground. With difficult driving conditions and small targets for approach shots, this layout SHOULD fit him perfectly. Well-rested after three weeks off, I’ll be interested to see how quickly he knocks off the rust. 

Runner-up at The Open Championship, Jon Rahm (8/1) has spent the last two weeks chasing his kids around. Posting top-10 paydays in two of his previous three visits, including T5 last year, he will have 72 holes to play himself back into shape. The stakes for the players at the top of the Bet365.com board are minimal. The studs have earned their place in the final at East Lake two weeks from now. 

Rory McIlroy (9/1) completes the “normal” troika atop the board in the most important events on TOUR. Like his fellow stars above, he’s never lifted the trophy at FedExCup Playoffs, WGC-FESJI, or FedEx St. Jude Classic played on this layout. Leading by one after 54 holes in 2019, McIlroy settled for T4 after closing with 71. It would be daft to suggest he cannot win this week, but his focus will be on winning the FedExCup Playoffs for the fourth time at East Lake, two weeks from Sunday.

Patrick Cantlay (16/1) has confounded gamers recently, but this is his time of year. The last two seasons he’s perked up on the East Coast, winning the BMW Championship in Delaware and Maryland. His success here has been limited to T12 on his debut, while his last three haven’t been inside T20. Saving a win ticket for next week in Chicago, on his preferred Bentgrass, will be my angle.

If there’s a limited-field, no-cut event, the first name that jumps off the page is Xander Schauffele (18/1). Winning at East Lake in his first attempt at the FedExCup Playoffs in 2017, he served notice. The following season he added two more wins in fields with fewer than 80 players. Sitting No. 16 in the FedExCup standings, he’s hit the top 25 in 10 of his last 11 worldwide starts.

Viktor Hovland (18/1) ripped late spring to shreds with top-10 paydays at the first two major championships of the season before finally breaking through at the Memorial Tournament. Navigating a Jack Nicklaus design where the winning total was eight-under-par, the Norwegian won in a playoff to pick up his first win in the continental United States. His last four starts have collected T29 or better, with the best paycheck cashing T13. Making his fourth start in Memphis, his T20 payday was the best of his three visits. 

Top 10/Top 20/Top 40

Sam Burns (30/1): The Louisiana native just needs to follow the river upstream to find another track where he’s played well. With five wins to his name, four have come on Bermudagrass greens, including his WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club earlier this year. Heat, humidity, and slick Bermuda should have his full attention this week. After losing a playoff in 2021 and cashing T20 last year, I know it has mine. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (35/1): The Englishman has gone off the boil recently. With three top-10 paydays from four starts in the home of the blues, I’m hoping the tight fairways and small greens perk him back to life. One of only two players who entered this week with three top-10 results, I’ll back him to add to his total.

Byeong Hun An (55/1): Hitting the podium in two of his last three events, the Korean will look to add to the list of first-time winners on this track. Playing from the final group in 2020, his final round 73 dropped him back to T12. Matching his current form with a taste of blood makes for a more than decent chance this week.

Longer Shots

Use ’em wherever you see fit!

JT Poston (50/1): I believe in the heat. Top-10 paydays in four of his last five and is a fairway finder.

Andrew Putnam (125/1): A pair of top-10 finishes include a Sunday playing from the final group. Cashed seven straight entering this week.

Cam Davis (80/1): I love momentum. The Aussie needed a T7-T10 regular season finish to qualify. No reason to pack up and go home now!

Lee Hodges (90/1): Life changed with his dominant victory two weeks ago at the 3M Open in Minnesota. Playing his first FedExCup Playoffs last season, he opened and closed with 65 in Memphis and shared 13th place.

A few tidbits jumped off the page this week. 

The last two winners on this property won for the first time on TOUR. Nobody has ever won on their first FedExCup Playoff event before Will Zalatoris (not entered; injured) did it last year. Camilo Villegas won the final two events in 2007, but not the first one. While Zalatoris defeated the top 124 players from the FedExCup Playoffs last year, Abraham Ancer (not entered) knocked out the 65 eligible players in the WGC-FESJI in 2021. The champions from 2014 through 2022 are not eligible or playing this week. 

The last two events on the property have resulted in playoffs. Last year a total of 15-under was necessary to play extra holes. It took 16-under to win the 2021 edition. Par is a solid score, but the last three editions have produced 30 players posting 10-under or better.

Not surprisingly, the scoring average has remained sub-70 since the field was reduced to WGC status followed by the top 125 in the FedExCup last season. The elite players, and fewer of them, will not produce scores which, will inflate the scoring average. With the pressure and prestige of cashing in a FedExCup event or WGC opportunity, each shot will be more measured, especially with the prize pools and status awaiting the top finishers.

The bubble entering FedExCup Playoffs Event 1:

45. JT Poston

46. Tom Hoge

47. Mackenzie Hughes

48. Cameron Young

49. Lucas Glover

50. Nick Hardy

51. Alex Smalley

52. Thomas Detry

53. Taylor Montgomery

54. Davis Riley

55. Brandon Wu

The winner takes home $3.6 million of the $20 million purse, plus 2,000 FedExCup points.

NOW PLAYING:

Beginning last September in Wine Country, the PGA TOUR season concluded last week on Tobacco Road. Only the top 70 players from the season-long-FedExCup standings, who survived the previous 44 events, were presented with a ticket to win the FedExCup Championship.

For the second consecutive season, the FedExCup Playoffs will begin at TPC Southwind in Memphis. The design from Ron Prichard has hosted an event since its inception on the PGA TOUR in 1989. The club has hosted three World Golf Championship events and the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs in the last four seasons.

Playing to Par-70, the design has never stretched over 7,300 yards. Tipping at 7,243 yards, TPC Southwind has 11 water penalty areas and 419 Bermudagrass rough off the tee to provide the defense. Into the greens, some of the smallest on TOUR at 4,200 square feet on average, Champion Bermuda provides the perfect surfaces to hole birdie putts and save pars from off the green. This year, there isn’t a pesky 36-hole cut to worry about. Everyone will have four rounds to attempt to advance to the BMW Championship next week in Chicago at Olympia Fields (North Course).

Good luck.

Notes:

• Field of 70.
• The OWGR is represented by 40 of the top 50 players.
• No-cut event.
• At the conclusion of play, the top 50 players in the FedExCup Rankings advance to the BMW Championship next week in Chicago.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

Recent Winners – TPC Southwind

Italics – not entered this week.

Last Week – Wyndham Championship

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

Hideki Matsuyama (18/1) is the co-favorite this week though he hasn’t produced a top-10 payday since THE PLAYERS Championship in May. Currently No. 56 in the FedExCup standings, he’s signed for three top-15 paydays from seven tries in Greensboro. The highlights include T3 in 2016 and T11 in 2018. Not. Even. Close. Bud. MC 71-74.

The 2016 winner, Si Woo Kim (18/1), joins Matsuyama at the top of the board. The Korean held a two-shot lead after 54 holes in 2021 before he was left behind for T3 by Jim Herman on Sunday. The 28-year-old Korean, who has posted rounds of 60 and 62 in his four top-five finishes here, has already won a shoot-out this season at the Sony Open in Hawaii and posted 22-under to share second at the AT&T Byron Nelson in May. T33.

Sungjae Im (20/1) resides in this column weekly outside of the major championships. Sadly, for bettors, his recent run of form should scare off any takers again this week.

BUT.

After missing the cut in four of his last eight appearances on TOUR, the return to Bermudagrass is my angle this week. Last spring, he rattled off T6 at THE PLAYERS, T7 at RBC Heritage, solo sixth at TPC Louisiana, and T8 at Wells Fargo, all on Bermudagrass. His previous four visits to Sedgefield have included three top-10 paydays, including T2 last year. Putting him in play this week makes sense. Nope, still no top-10 payday since May. T14.

Russell Henley (20/1) should have won this event in 2021. He led by three entering the final round, but a closing 71 saw him miss the six-man playoff by a shot. Missing a putt for par on the final hole saw him miss out on the six-man playoff. With three consecutive trips inside the top 10 at Sedgefield, the Georgia native has proven his worth in Greensboro. The last time he played in this part of the world, he cashed T4 at Augusta National and followed it up with T19 at RBC Heritage. His only missed cuts in the last three months are the PGA Championship and The Open Championship. I’m not sure he makes enough birdies to contend, but his recent results at this event tell a different story. T2

Sam Burns (25/1) has produced just one top-10 paycheck since winning in March at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. The Louisiana native has won on Bermudagrass in four of his five wins on TOUR. Changing grass may sound mundane, but players who grew up on Bermudagrass simply prefer Bermudagrass. In his only appearance in 2020, he closed 65-65 for T13 and posted all four rounds in the 60s. His return this season tells me all I need to know. Sitting No. 19^th in the FEC standings, it’s obvious he doesn’t need the points. Heavy lean. T14.

Denny McCarthy (25/1) is a better putter, statistically, than Burns, but doesn’t have the four wins, or any wins, to match. Knocking on the door with T11 or better payoffs in five of his last nine on TOUR, he posted 60 at the Travelers and posted 18-under. Before missing the cut at The Open, he signed for more birdies posting 16-under at the John Deere Classic. Bouncing back to Bermuda won’t bother him! Nice 25/1 exacta with these last two. Didn’t see that MC coming down the tracks!

Top 10/Top 20/Top 40

JT Poston (28/1), the 2019 winner, will look to become the only two-time winner at Sedgefield since 2008. He was inches away from making the 3M Open more interesting than expected last Sunday before finishing T2. His response after the tournament was great. He’s playing to win and doesn’t care about anything else standing in the middle of the fairway late on Sunday. T7 pays at this window.

Alex Smalley (35/1) is no stranger to this part of the world. The Duke alum has not missed in his two previous starts the last two seasons and has cashed twice in the top 30.MC

Byeong Hun An (40/1) hit the podium here in 2019 and has been playing well recently. Made a hole-in-one yesterday! T2. Boom.

Eric Cole (66/1) or Ben Griffin (70/1) could fit in this spot. Both are excellent putters, but Griffin was solo fourth last year closing 64-64. Nobody has more rounds in the 60s than Cole this season as he can really roll the rock as well. Cole did, T14. Griffin, MC, did not, but will enter the playoffs at No. 70. Whew.

Andrew Putnam (70/1) – T27

Garrick Higgo (75/1) – MC

Longer Shots

Use ’em wherever you see fit!

If Webb Simpson (80/1) is going to factor, this is the week. I’m not headlining my card with him, but his record here (2011 win; 9 top 10s) from 12 weekends in 14 starts is ridiculous. Sprinkles on the top 10, top 20, and top 40 markets, just in case. T5 and a nice payday!

Brandt Snedeker (175/1) flashed just enough signs of life last week at TPC Twin Cities for me to take a nibble this week. Playing himself back into tournament shape after sternum surgery, finishing his season on a familiar track should have his full attention. T45.

Chesson Hadley (100/1) is from Raleigh and has produced his best two paychecks (T8, T15) in his last two visits. Picking up his first top-10 payday of the season two weeks ago at Barracuda, I’m not worried about his current form. Cashing T27 last week at the 3M Open will not hurt his confidence.T33.

OAD – 2023 Spotter’s Game

This Week – FedEx St. Jude Championship

Sam Burns

Just missed: Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Jason Day

Last Week – Wyndham Championship

Denny McCarthy – MC

Just missed: Russell Henley – T2, Si Woo Kim – T33, Eric Cole – T14