Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

February 21, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Vidanta Vallarta (@PGATOUR on x)

Mexico Open at Vidanta

Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta

Vallarta, Mexico

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Quick Links:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks

Top of the Board (odds via Bet365)

Tony Finau (8/1) crushed a better field than this one last year. Posting 24-under to set the tournament scoring record, the highest-ranked player in the field is now 40-under aggregate in two visits. Only Jon Rahm (not entered) has beaten him here.

Nicolai Hojgaard (16/1) is one of many at the top of the board this week who ran well at Torrey Pines last month. Finishing second to Mathieu Pavon (not entered), the young Dane showed he wasn’t bothered by a big track hugging the Pacific Ocean. Cashed T33 here last year but was second to Matt Wallace (80/1) on Paspalum at Punta Cana last spring.

Speaking of Torrey Pines, Stephan Jaeger (22/1) led after 36 and 54 holes before cashing T3. Signing for 73-72 on the weekend, the German is still looking for his first win or second-place finish on TOUR. Making his third start at Vidanta Vallarta, he will look to add to his T18-T15 paydays.

Emiliano Grillo (25/1) has cashed in his first six events of 2024. Highlighted by T7 at Waialae, the Argentine has picked up five top-10 paydays worldwide since winning at Colonial last May. Oh, and he was T20 at Torrey Pines.

Flashing with T9 at The American Express and T17 at TPC Scottsdale, not many drive it better than Keith Mitchell (25/1) regardless of the field. Playing Mayakoba five times, he never finished better than T56. Careful.

Taylor Pendrith (25/1) played five events in the FedExCup Fall and registered three T15 or better paydays, including T3 and T8. In two starts in 2024, he’s cashed T9 (Torrey Pines!!) and T10 with MC sandwiched between. Big power off the tee is the foundation.

After missing the cut in his first try of 2024, Thomas Detry (25/1) rattled off T20 (Torrey Pines!!), T4, and T28 before not qualifying for last week. The Belgian cashed T8 and T15 in back-to-back years at Punta Cana and hit the top 25 in his final two visits to Mayakoba.

Winning four weeks ago in the UAE in his last outing, Thorbjorn Olesen (30/1) continues his run of fantastic play. Cashing 26^th or better in his last eight starts, his annual hot starts to the beginning of the calendar year continue.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

The last time the TOUR stopped in Mexico and played on Paspalum, Erik van Rooyen (33/1) posted three rounds of 64-66-63 to close at El Cardonal and win by two shots. Missing the cut in Phoenix was his first weekend off in 12 starts.

Doug Ghim (45/1) rolls in after cashing T13 (Torrey Pines!!) and T12 in Phoenix. Keep an eye on this ball-striker.

Maverick McNealy (50/1) popped with a season-best T6 at WM Phoenix open after a disappointing T39 in his boyhood backyard at Pebble Beach.

Cameron Champ (55/1) joins Finau, Brandon Wu (40/1), and Patrick Rodgers (33/1) as the only players to hit the top 10 in the first two editions.

Andrew Novak (110/1) grinds his way through big, windy, courses and isn’t bothered by Paspalum.

A winner at Mayakoba, Patton Kizzire (125/1) joins Finau and Charley Hoffman (70/1) as the only players this week to win on a Norman design in Mexico.

With wins at the Puerto Rico Open, Mazatlán Open, and El Bosque Mexico Championship, Martin Trainer (200/1) deserves a punt. Cashing T11 on debut here in 2022, he returns after T15 in Los Cabos last fall. Paspalum specialist and long shot.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Greg Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,456.
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Platinum Paspalum; 7,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Platinum Paspalum at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	106/14/12
Architect(s):	Greg Norman (2015).
Defending Champion (event):	Tony Finau (-24).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	N/A
Course Record:	61; Jon Rahm (Round 3, 2023).
72 Hole Tournament Record	260; Tony Finau (2023).
Fact of the Week:	First-year for the event to be held in February.
Fact of the Week II:	Paspalum for the first time since El Cardonal last fall.

The 64^th edition of the Mexico Open tees off at Greg Norman’s Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta.

The Australian’s coastal design, located just off the Pacific Ocean, opened in 2015. Playing 7,456 yards to Par 71, the track features tee-to-green Platinum Paspalum.

Previously contested in the last week of April and the first week of May, the 2024 edition takes up a new position on the calendar in late February.

To mitigate scoring, the rough has increased to 2.5 inches, up from 1.5 inches from the first two editions.

The resort course provides massive landing areas off the fairway to account for everyday players and the ocean breezes off the Pacific Ocean.

The Paspalum putting surfaces, 7,000 square feet on average, will be prepped to run at just 11 feet, down from 12 feet last year.

Errant tee balls and approaches will have to steer clear of over 100 bunkers and water hazards found on 12 of the 18 holes.

One of the biggest ballparks on TOUR, Vidanta Vallarta will have five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes.

Notes:

Field of 132.
The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
The OWGR is represented by four of the top 50.
$8.1 million – $1.458 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational	Hideki Matsuyama

Recent Winners – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Tony Finau (-24)	Rolled to a three-shot victory over Rahm; Wu was third two back.
2022	Jon Rahm (-17)	Held off Tony Finau and Brandon Wu by one shot.

Angles

The eighth event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season will be the first of two in Mexico this year. El Cardonal in Los Cabos will return in the fall to host for the second time.

The combination of a Greg Norman track and Mexico was in play at Mayakoba on the Yucatan Peninsula from 2007 through 2022.

Paspalum is a common playing surface in the resorts of the Caribbean and Mexico. PGA TOUR events played recently on Paspalum include El Cardonal, Puerto Rico Open, Corales Punta Cana, and Mayakoba. Korn Ferry Tour players have experienced this surface in two events in the Bahamas.

A field of 132, down from previous years due to the early season start and reduced February daylight, will be cut to the top 65 and ties after two rounds.

Defending champion Tony Finau highlights a field of just four players in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. At No. 24, he is the highest-ranked player teeing it up this week.

Set during his victory last year, Tony Finau owns the course record on 24-under. The course record of 61, set by Jon Rahm (not entered), was posted in Round 3 of 2023. The cut in the first two editions was 2-under par.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200
The Genesis Invitational	Max Homa	329,000

Total Winnings:		1,575,217

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – The Genesis Invitational

West Coast players have feasted here over the years. Only Joaquin Niemann, who is ineligible this week, sticks out like a sore thumb from the list of recent winners. All he did was set the 36-hole and 54-hole scoring record in perfect conditions.

The third of eight Signature Events requires a show of nerves. Either you’re picking an ultra-premium player or you’re hoping to continue to stretch of winners outside 60-1.

With only 40-odd events to choose from, there is absolutely no need to go fishing this week. Save that for next week in Mexico when the field will lighten significantly.

MY CHOICE: Max Homa – T16

It’s his major championship. It’s in his backyard. He’s won it and finished second in the last three editions. The streak of top-10 paydays is four.

The Cooler strikes again! Battling from the word go, the Californian put it together in Round 2 with 65 but couldn’t catch up. A bogey at the last cost 116k but who’s counting?

At least I put Matsuyama in the DFS column!

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: I will not talk you out of him this week. This is not a putting contest and that will help him between the ears from the word go. Damn, 51 guys made the cut. Scheffler was 51^st SG: Putting. Cashed T10.

Collin Morikawa: I’d probably run him out before Scheffler. I like the grass match. Barely hit 50% of GIR. Weird. T19.

Adam Scott: I don’t think I need to dip to 50-1 this week. Might pop in a field with less lumber down the road. T19 on a sponsor’s exemption.

Rory McIlroy: I’m good. See him in Florida or when the weather gets warmer. T24 after opening with 74. Good swerve.

Justin Thomas: T12 or better in every event over the last four months. I’m still holding out for Valhalla. Condolences to those who didn’t. MC.

Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele: If you’re not sold on Cantlay’s form, save him for Memorial. Schauffele is an auto play at any major, especially a U.S. Open. If your game uses The TOUR Championship, that works as well. T4 BOTH! Cantlay was the more disappointing of the two. Sunday scaries continued but it was reported he was sick most of the weekend. Ok.

Tiger Woods: Come on. Just no. He’s +320 to hit the top 20. Go there. Win there. Maybe. Played 24 holes and WD due to illness.

Longshots

Sahith Theegala – T37

Cameron Young – T16

Will Zalatoris – T2

Adam Schenk – MC

Emiliano Grillo – T44

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

The fields in this event during the first two editions have been less than comprehensive.

The argument that the two best players finished first-T2 or T2-first the last two years is difficult to argue.

The winners on TOUR this year suggest that favorite Tony Finau will struggle to defend his title and some 50/1 or worse longshot will steal the trophy on Sunday.

Whatever.

MY CHOICE: Tony Finau

With light wind in the forecast, it’s all systems go. Relax, smoke drivers, wedge it close, and continue to avoid bogeys just off the Pacific Ocean.

Those of you who do not believe a shootout is the best place to run him out, save the champion at Memorial Park in Houston for later in March. Defending his second title of the year, the tee to green requirements in Texas will play more to his set-up, but I would suggest a deeper field.

MUCH deeper.

Nobody said this was easy.

Other to Consider:

Thorbjorn Olesen: Won in the Middle East in his last outing. Former Ryder Cupper plays all four corners of the world, and his game follows.

Cameron Champ: Yep, that’s where we’re at this week. Hitting the top 10 twice in the first two years matches nicely.

Emiliano Grillo: Broke his drought at Colonial last spring. Safest pick on the board.

Thomas Detry: Too many top 25 paydays in thin fields and on Paspalum to ignore.

Longshots

Brandon Wu: Testing the limits of Horses for Courses!

Patrick Rodgers: Same!

Mackenzie Hughes: Flashed for two rounds last week before fading on the weekend.

Charley Hoffman: Previous winner at Mayakoba, should feel right at home.

The Genesis Invitational

February 14, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Tiger Woods hosts the third of eight Signature Events on the 2024 calendar.

The first tee at Riviera 💯 pic.twitter.com/rzQruEmomP
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 14, 2024

The Genesis Invitational

The Riviera Country Club

Pacific Palisades, California

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Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – Expert Picks – Bet365.com Preview

Bet365: Top of the Board

Sitting No. 1 in the OWGR, Scottie Scheffler (7/1) will look to add his name to the winners at The Genesis Invitational who have also won the Masters. Cashing T12 and T7 the last two seasons suggests he’s closing in on joining that club. I don’t need to remind you about his numbers in the Strokes-Gained department from last year or last week. The only question that follows the Texan is WHEN he will return to the winner’s circle.

Making his eighth start in Tinsel Town, Rory McIlroy (10/1) attempts to return to the form he used to start 2024 (WIN-T2). Pebble Beach wasn’t the soft landing he anticipated, and T66 wasn’t the payday he expected to take home. Rested after skipping WM Phoenix Open last week, the Ulsterman will look to add to his bounty of T29 or better in six of seven starts, including three top-10 paydays in Southern California.

A slow start from Norwegian superstar Viktor Hovland (14/1) has turned heads for the wrong reasons. Unable to breach the top 20 in Maui and not firing during the Pro-Am at Pebble Beach (T58), he was a late withdraw before the WM Phoenix Open last week. Cashing a pair of top-five paydays from three starts in Los Angeles, the Santa Monica Canyon might provide the tonic needed to swing his game into gear. The last two winners were in their 20s, but none were from a decade before. I’ll wait.

Xander Schauffele (16/1) leads the California contingent this week, even though he’s only painted the top 10 once from six starts. Running in the red to start the season, the San Diego native ran into the wind and weather of Pebble Beach (T54) and withdrew just before the WM Phoenix Open. Cashing four of his last six T15 or better, I’d lean into the top 20 (-170) as insurance.

Justin Thomas (18/1) embraced the tough conditions at Pebble Beach (T6) and was not deterred by the weather delays at TPC Scottsdale (T12). Since missing the cut at the 3M Open last summer, the two-time major champion has produced T12 or better paydays in seven consecutive starts on TOUR. The “new” swing changes have been replaced with the old, familiar action, and the results have followed.

Long Beach native Patrick Cantlay (18/1) pushed onto the podium last year with solo third. In the early days of 2024, he struggled to put all four rounds together, especially on Sunday. Sitting T11 after three rounds at Pebble Beach, he did not have a chance to wash away the difficult fourth-round mojo that had been following him to start the year. Cashing T17 or better in five of his last six here, hitching to a top 20 or top 10 might be the prudent play.

If there’s a track that will play Max Homa (18/1) into winning shape, I would point to this week. The 2021 winner, runner-up last year, has peeled off four straight paydays inside the top 10 and has not missed a weekend in five years. Cashing T13 in his defense at Torrey Pines, the Burbank native, born 20 miles up the street, didn’t fire at Pebble Beach (T66) and missed the cut last week in Scottsdale. A home game is just what the doctor ordered! Remember, four of his six wins on TOUR have come in his home state.

Ludvig Aberg (20/1) continues to produce results on premium courses against premium fields. The elements of Pebble Beach, the wind, weather, and Pro-Am, could not slow him down as he cashed solo second. Playing almost 7,800 yards, Torrey Pines kept him at T9. Experience is a must-have for most, but the Swedish star has been writing his own rules since last June.

Collin Morikawa (20/1) is another local who will be making noise this week. Finishing T2 in 2022 and cashing T6 in 2023, the La Canada-Flintridge native enjoys most ball-striking challenges. Sitting second behind Scheffler in SG: Approach the Green and fourth in SG: Tee to Green, he embraces tough layouts. A disappointing missed cut at Torrey Pines might distract investors. Not me.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Adam Scott (30/1): The 2020 champ is the all-time leading money winner at the event and has produced top 20 or better results worldwide over the last three months. Lovely convergence.

Cameron Young (40/1): Backed up a solo third from the Middle East with his second top-10 in three starts with T8 last week in Phoenix. Tying for second on debut in 2022, he posted 62 in Round 2. Last year, he returned for T20.

Will Zalatoris (50/1): Riding into Hollywood on a sponsor’s exemption, just like Scott, he will look forward to repaying the faith shown in him by his host. Running fourth here last year, he closed with 64, his best round in four appearances.

Emiliano Grillo (110/1): Playing for the sixth time in seven weeks, the Argentine has produced T22 or better in his last four starts. The winner at Colonial, the other Hogan’s Alley, last spring can work it tee to green.

Tom Hoge (125/1): Making his seventh consecutive start to begin 2024, I’ll back the free roll. Hitting 28 of 36 GIR on the weekend in Phoenix, he cashed T17 for the second time in three starts on TOUR. The other payday was T6 at Pebble Beach.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	The Riviera Country Club
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,322
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Poa annua; 7,500 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet and up.
Rough:	Kikuyu grass at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	58/0/0
Architect(s):	George C. Thomas (1926).
Defending Champion (event):	Jon Rahm -17
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Adam Scott (2020, 2005).
Course Record:	61; Ted Tryba (1999).
72 Hole Tournament Record	264; Lanny Wadkins (1985).
Fact of the Week:	Before the last two editions, all of the winners from 2008 through 2021 were 30 or older.
Fact of the Week II:	Adam Scott was the last player to win on debut. His 36-hole victory in 2005 was unofficial.

One of the classic American golf courses, The Riviera Country Club, designed by George C. Thomas, opened for business in 1927.

Hosting the former Los Angeles Open for the 62^nd time, the Par-71 layout has stretched 7,322 yards since the 2016 edition.

The West Coast swing ends with another week on Poa annua greens. Running at 12.5 feet on the Stimpmeter, the large putting surfaces, averaging 7,500 square feet, rank in the top five largest on TOUR.

There’s no water on the course that runs through the Santa Monica Canyon. Kikuyu grass cut at two inches will provide nest-y, uneven lies off the fairways and around the greens. The bunkers, 58 of them, are penal. The Riviera Country Club ranks as one of the toughest tracks on the calendar when it comes to getting up and down out of the sand or, getting it close.

Taming Riviera requires a full array of shots, including a cooperative flat stick. Grinding out pars on the Par-4 holes, attacking the scorable Par-5 chances, and surviving the all-encompassing Par-3 holes will produce a worthy champion.

“Hogan’s Alley” has hosted the U.S. Open, won by Ben Hogan in 1948, plus two PGA Championships. The historical record includes a U.S. Senior Open and the U.S. Amateur, plus the 2026 U.S. Women’s Open and 2028 Summer Olympics yet to come.

Notes:

Field of 70.
The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead plays the weekend.
The OWGR is represented by 41 of the top 50.
$20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open	Nick Taylor
The Genesis Invitational

Recent Winners – The Genesis Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Jon Rahm (-17)	Held off 2021 winner Max Homa by two shots.
2022	Joaquin Niemann (-19)	Became just the fourth wire-to-wire winner in event history.
2021	Max Homa (-12)	Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2020	Adam Scott (-11)	Held off Matt Kuchar and two others by two shots.
2019	J.B. Holmes (-14)	Justin Thomas was 18-under with 17 holes to go. He finished 13-under and in second place.
2018	Bubba Watson (-12)	Won for the third time holding off Finau by two shots.

Angles

Since 2007, every winner was 30 years or older until the 2022 and 2023 editions, when the winners were 23 and 28.

Masters champions have won this event 11 times since the turn of the century.

The last eight winners needed four or more starts before raising the trophy.

The last player to win on debut was Adam Scott in 2005. The victory was unofficial as the event, canceled due to weather, was only 36 holes.

The trio of Par-5 holes are some of the friendliest on TOUR.

The Par-4 holes are not.

Gaining strokes off the tee and into the greens will go a long way to determining the winner.

Bunkers this week are penal. Getting it close is rare. Getting it up and down is a struggle.

The fifth consecutive week on Poa annua greens will require concentration from outside the leather again. Look for the speed on the green to be the quickest yet on TOUR this season.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125
WM Phoenix Open	Matt Fitzpatrick	156,200

Total Winnings:		1,246,217

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – WM Phoenix Open

Nick Taylor or Charley Hoffman was going to be a triple-digit long-shot winner.

Again.

Whatever.

MY CHOICE: Matt Fitzpatrick – T15 but 10 shots off the lead.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: If I am going to use him once and only once, thems the rules, I’m going down in an event with BIG BUCKS on the table. Wonderful attempt for a three-peat. T3 is great, except when you put it next to what T3 this week pays.

Justin Thomas: Current heat mixes nicely with course form. At this point, I can’t talk myself out of him at Valhalla. You do you. T12 after a quiet Saturday round of 70.

Hideki Matsuyama: Legit course horse. T22 adds another top-25 payday to his career total here.

Max Homa: No, thanks. Next week. MC

Wyndham Clark: Following up a round of 60 in victory seems a bit of a stretch. Tough ask. T41.

Byeong Hun An: The putter isn’t the answer, but he won’t miss many Fairways and GIR. Crowd got under his skin. T66.

Longshots

Keith Mitchell – T17

Corey Conners – T28

Vincent Norrman – MC

Victor Perez – MC

This Week – The Genesis Invitational

The third of eight Signature Events requires a show of nerves. Either you’re picking an ultra-premium player or you’re hoping to continue to stretch of winners outside 60-1.

With only 40-odd events to choose from, there is absolutely no need to go fishing this week. Save that for next week in Mexico when the field will lighten significantly.

MY CHOICE: Max Homa

It’s his major championship. It’s in his backyard. He’s won it and finished second in the last three editions. The streak of top-10 paydays is four.

No more overthinking.

Some would suggest I don’t think at all!

Who’s arguing?!?!?

With four of his six wins in his home state of California, I expect a bounce back after missing the cut last week. He’s fresh and ready to go.

Happy Valentine’s Day, you filthy animals.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: I will not talk you out of him this week. This is not a putting contest and that will help him between the ears from the word go.

Collin Morikawa: I’d probably run him out before Scheffler. I like the grass match.

Adam Scott: I don’t think I need to dip to 50-1 this week. Might pop in a field with less lumber down the road.

Rory McIlroy: I’m good. See him in Florida or when the weather gets warmer.

Justin Thomas: T12 or better in every event over the last four months. I’m still holding out for Valhalla.

Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele: If you’re not sold on Cantlay’s form, save him for Memorial. Schauffele is an auto-play at any major, especially a U.S. Open. If your game uses The TOUR Championship, that works as well.

Tiger Woods: Come on. Just no. He’s +320 to hit the top 20. Go there. Win there. Maybe.

Longshots

Sahith Theegala

Cameron Young

Will Zalatoris

Adam Schenk

Emiliano Grillo

WM Phoenix Open Preview

February 7, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

WM Phoenix Open

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale

Scottsdale, Arizona

Head to Golfbet for all our content each week:

Odds Outlook – DFS Report – Horses for Courses/Stas Suggest – Expert Picks – Bet365.com Preview

For my picks this week, click on the Bet365.com Preview above.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,261.
Par:	71 (35-36).
Greens:	Poa annua; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye and Poa annua around two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	67/3/6
Architect(s):	Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (1986); Tom Weiskopf (2014 renovation).
Defending Champion (event):	Scottie Scheffler (-19)
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Scheffler (2023, 2022), Hideki Matsuyama (2017, 2016) and JB Holmes (2006, 2004).
Course Record:	61; Jordan Spieth (Round 3, 2021); Wyndham Clark (Round 1, 2020).
72 Hole Tournament Record (post-2014 renovation)	19-under; Scottie Scheffler (2023).
Fact of the Week:	Steve Stricker was the last player to win an event three consecutive years (John Deere Classic 2009-2011).
Fact of the Week II:	Only three internationals have won since 2000.

Notes:

Field of 132.
THE CUT returns this week. The top 65 and ties advance to the final two rounds.
The OWGR is represented by 27 of the top 50.
$8.8 million – $1.584 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open	Matthieu Pavon (rookie)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Wyndham Clark (54 holes – weather)
WM Phoenix Open

Recent Winners – WM Phoenix Open

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Scottie Scheffler (-19)	Tied the tournament scoring record defending his title. Won by two shots over Nick Taylor. Third place was five back.
2022	Scottie Scheffler (-16)	Defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2021	Brooks Koepka (-19)	Set the tournament scoring mark holding off KH Lee and Xander Schauffele by a shot.
2020	Webb Simpson (-17)	Defeated Tony Finau in a playoff.
2019	Rickie Fowler (-19)	Sat 20-under after 54 holes before eventually winning by two shots in cool, rainy, conditions.
2018	Gary Woodland (-18)	Defeated Chez Reavie in a playoff; Circled 26 birdies.
2017	Hideki Matsuyama (-17)	Successfully defended his title knocking out Simpson in a playoff.
2016	Hideki Matsuyama (-14)	Won in his third attempt defeating Fowler in a playoff.
2105	Brooks Koepka (-15)	Won on his debut and won for the first time on TOUR.

Angles

The People’s Open is the largest attended sporting event outside The Olympics.

Over 700,000 people will pack into TPC Scottsdale during the practice rounds and tournament play.

Players distracted by noise, crowds, or nightlife probably didn’t enter this week.

It’s the fourth consecutive week on Poa annua greens but the first in four weeks where only one course will be in play.

Desert golf usually means sunshine, light winds, and warm temperatures. Not this week. Take a look. Cold mornings and the lack of sunshine will make this a miserable slog. Thankfully, TPC Scottsdale drains nicely.

A wet golf course on Thursday will expand the fairways. Less roll equals more width and tighter angles can possibly be attacked. Will it matter if you can’t feel your hands???

The Par-71 has played 7,261 yards since the 2019 edition. Taking advantage of scoring conditions (read: not firm and fast greens) should resemble a dart board. The average winning score here in perfect conditions is around 17-under. Time to score again this week.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open	Jason Day	0
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Jordan Spieth	70,125

Total Winnings:		1,090,017

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The second of eight Signature Events, there is NO CUT this week. Toss in wind, rain, and amateurs, and it might be a week to stray from the biggest of names.

Or not.

My theory in this game is simple: You’re not missing out. If you don’t take Scheffler this week and he wins, it’s not one and done. He will play all of the majors, THE PLAYERS, most of the other six Signature Events and the first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs. He’s good enough to win again and possibly after that.

MY CHOICE: Jordan Spieth – T39

He embraces the format, can handle the weather, and has the results to back it up. If you’re saving him for the Masters, please re-read the above. I’m trying to catch him on the up on ANOTHER course he has figured out. I didn’t think he would fire at Kapalua, and I was wrong by miles (solo third). After back-to-back top six paydays, I’m going in.

Never in it from the jump, the Texan sat a mile off the lead when the tournament was, rightly, called after 54 holes. I took a chance. I didn’t hit.

Other to Consider:

Viktor Hovland: The 2018 U.S. Amateur winner here has plenty of reps at Pebble. He lives in Oklahoma where wind is just part of life. The only upside of choosing Spieth instead is saving Hovland for later. Cashing T58 and withdrawing from WM Phoenix Open this week wasn’t what I had in mind.

Rory McIlroy: To me, he makes absolutely no sense this week. Not with the events left on the schedule. Not with the tracks he’s crushed still to come. I’ll point out he’s on fire. Got it. Desert golf, with no wind and warm temperatures, is exactly the opposite of what he will face this week. Posted one round in the 60s for T66 out of 80 players.

Ludvig Aberg: There’s nothing left to be written about the Swedish star in the making. The next step for gamers is figuring out his sweet spot. If you’re on the fence this week about the weather/event/choice there are a ton of worse places to default to than this guy. Solo second.

Tommy Fleetwood: Can we get somebody to whisper in his ear that is U.S. Open week? Good job if you resisted! T31.

Jason Day: Because I had him last week. Closed with 63 for T6. Yep, THIS WEEK.

Longshots

Ben An – T31

Denny McCarthy – T26

Nick Taylor – T71

Seamus Power – T31

This Week – WM Phoenix Open

History suggests the BIG PARTY in the desert brings us a big champion (see the table above). Only Webb Simpson (not entered) has won this event BEFORE winning a major championship, but the point stands. TPC Scottsdale identifies big-time talent. The only champion on the list above who has not won a major, to the surprise of many, is Rickie Fowler.

The way 2024 has begun it is OBVIOUS the winner this week will be a Monday Qualifier or the last man into the field after a WD. All five winners have been just short of or above 100-1 to win this season. Wyndham Clark’s victory last week just added to that total as he was as long as 125-1 in places and 66-1 in others.

Whatever

MY CHOICE: Matt Fitzpatrick

It will be cold, and damp, and players will be either into this weather or mentally checked out. The Englishman should feel right at home.

Strong off the tee, this major winner isn’t going to lose any shots on or around the greens either. Making his third consecutive start (T29-T10), it’s obvious he’s not bothered by the raucous environment.

Other to Consider:

Scottie Scheffler: If I am going to use him once and only once, thems the rules, I’m going down in an event with BIG BUCKS on the table.

Justin Thomas: Current heat mixes nicely with course form. At this point, I can’t talk myself out of him at Valhalla. You do you.

Hideki Matsuyama: Legit course horse.

Max Homa: No, thanks. Next week.

Wyndham Clark: Following up a round of 60 in victory seems a bit of a stretch.

Byeong Hun An: The putter isn’t the answer, but he won’t miss many Fairways and GIR.

Longshots

Keith Mitchell

Corey Conners

Vincent Norrman

Victor Perez

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview

January 31, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Dialed in at my favorite place @attproam @ATT #ATTProAm #ATTAthlete pic.twitter.com/gE6m45iJ9G
— Jordan Spieth (@JordanSpieth) January 30, 2024

Continue reading →

Farmers Insurance Open 2024

January 23, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines Golf Club

South Course (Host)

North Course

San Diego, CA

THE TOURNAMENT STARTS TOMORROW – READ THE PREVIEW MATERIAL HERE

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Xander Schauffele (+900): If Torrey equates to a U.S. Open “lite” not many play the U.S. Open better than the native San Diegan.

Patrick Cantlay (+1000): The 76 on Sunday last week should have put him back in the lab quickly on Monday morning. Weird that he’s playing this week considering his lack of reps here.

Collin Morikawa (+1100): Couldn’t hit it any better than last year (No. 1 Fairways and No. 2 GIR). It’s always the putter to get him over the hump. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t in the top 20.

Max Homa (+1100): A champion who has defended before at Fortinet, he’s the only favorite to do the business here. Super player. Every week. Any week.

Ludvig Aberg (+1800): If you pick him every week, you will be right again eventually. Too many trends working against him. You do you.

Sungjae Im (+2200): Doesn’t miss here (5-5) and the last two are in the top six. One of his two winds was a grinder at PGA National so he won’t mind tough conditions. Again.

Min Woo Lee (+2500): Like Aberg, there’s a learning curve here. The list of recent winners here, sans Rahm, needed five or more reps. Wonderful talent.

Tony Finau (+2500): I’d make a joke here about putting, but he should know every inch of these greens by now.

Jason Day (+2500): Yep. Let’s go. All of the shots, all of the experience, and all of the confidence. Day-Finau exacta.

Keegan Bradley (+2800): Loves the West Coast as well. Cashing six straight, half have paid in the top five, including solo second last year. Tough lay down.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	South Course
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,765
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	13 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye on Kikuyu at four inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	82/1/1
Architect(s):	William P. Bell & William F. Bell (1957).
Defending Champion (event):	Max Homa (-15).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Jason Day (2018, 2015) and Brandt Snedeker (2016, 2012).
Course Record (last):	62; South Course – Tiger Woods (1999). 61; North Course – Brandt Snedeker (2007).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last)	266 (-22); Tiger Woods (1999).
Fact of the Week:	Since 1990, three players have made FIO their first win on TOUR.
Fact of the Week II:	Since 1990, two players have won on debut.

	North Course
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,258
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Tyee 007 Bentgrass; 6,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12 feet.
Rough:	Overseeded Rye on Kikuyu at four inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	42/0/1
Architect(s):	William P. Bell & William F. Bell (1957). Tom Weiskopf (2017).
Course Record (last):	61; North Course – Brandt Snedeker (2007).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last)	266 (-22); Tiger Woods (1999).
Fact of the Week:	Only Woods and Mickelson have won this event more than twice. Neither are entered this week.
Fact of the Week II:	Four of the last five winners started on the NORTH Course.

Notes:

Field of 156.
18 holes on each course and then cut to the top 65 and ties.
South Course hosts Rounds 3 and 4.
The OWGR is represented by 20 of the top 50.
Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 54 holes (play each course once).
$9 million – $1.62 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
Last chance to get into the Aon Swing 5 for Pebble Beach next week.

Current Aon Swing 5 (*entered this week)

Grayson Murray

Christiaan Bezuidenhout*

Justin Thomas

Kevin Yu*

Carl Yuan*

Next 5

Michael Kim*

Matthieu Pavon*

Keith Mitchell*

Ryo Hisatsune*

Taylor Pendrith*

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express	Nick Dunlap (a)
Farmers Insurance Open
AT&T Pebble Beach

Recent Winners – Farmers Insurance Open

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Max Homa (-13)	Closed with 66, co-round of the day, to come from five shots. Won by two over Keegan Bradley.
2022	Luke List (-15)	Defeated Will Zalatoris on the first playoff hole to become the second player to break his maiden at this event since 1990.
2021	Patrick Reed (-14)	Ran away to win by five shots over Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and others.
2020	Marc Leishman (-15)	Became the fourth consecutive international winner in his 12^th attempt.
2019	Justin Rose (-21)	Won by two shots in his 9^th attempt.
2018	Jason Day (-10)	Won a three-man playoff to win for the second time.
2017	Jon Rahm (-13)	Won on debut by three shots.
2016	Brandt Snedeker (-6)	Didn’t hit a shot on the Monday finish after incredible weather rocked the event.

Angles

Better score on the North! Playing three shots easier and 500 yards shorter, making up shots on those 18 holes is required.

The South Course is really hard annually. Check the scorecard. There are 10 Par-4 holes and eight stretch over 450 yards. Half of the Par-5 challenges are 600-yards-plus.

Rough! Wet, overseeded Kikuyugrass (with Rye) will not shorten the longest track on TOUR from 2023.

Poa annua greens prepped to run 13 feet will be more of a challenge than the two stops in Hawaii and the pro-am from last week.

Fairways are hard to hit (less than 55 percent). Greens are hard to hit (less than 66 percent). Getting it close from around the green is hard. Holing putts outside three feet is hard.

The profile of the winner this week will be a big-time player with a full bag. The South Course could be used for a U.S. Open tomorrow. The 7,765 yards will eventually expose flaws. It’s not surprising that the winners here have had multiple chances or generational talent.

Pick better golfers!

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Sepp Straka (+4000): The bigger the park, the better his chances. The Austrian thrives on approach and should be rewarded again this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6600): The new baby arrived late last year and he’s plowing along like a proud papa. Last time he was in California he ran T6 at Fortinet. The last time he was on Poa he won $1.512 million.

Patrick Rodgers (+7000): The Quail Hollow angle is real. Ask Max Homa. Now, I know Rodgers hasn’t WON at QHC…

Keith Mitchell (+7500): All you can get. Thrives in this part of the world and will at Pebble and Riviera.

Taylor Pendrith (+9000): Because I was on him LAST WEEK. That’s just how this goes sometimes.

Taylor Moore (+11000): Won a difficult Copperhead Course last year that mimics Torrey Pines. T29 or better in five of his last six, all cashed.

Peter Malnati (+35000): Three straight T25 or better; includes T10 2021.

Chandler Phillips (+50000): Welcome to the big leagues. Let’s see if he can make it three on the trot.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express	Adam Hadwin	310,800
Farmers Insurance Open

Total Winnings:		1,019,892

His game has more fun stuff to it. Reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Recapping Last Week – The American Express

MY CHOICE: Adam Hadwin – T6

Nobody is more comfortable on these three courses, and he has the scar tissues to prove it. The Canadian will look to make it eight from eight and add to his three finishes on the podium. In an event that’s almost impossible to handicap (see: Dunlap, Nick) AND NOW HAS AN AMATEUR CHAMPION added to its history, I’ll take the money and run.

Other to Consider:

Tom Kim: Tough laydown, especially after 66 to close at Kapalua to kick-start his 2024. His desert record is making me reconsider this pick until the first tee time on Thursday. Stay tuned. 2024 has been a damp fart for his investors. Missing the cut in a desert shootout was the last spot I thought I would fill on the bingo card this week.

Chris Kirk: T18-WIN in the last two weeks plus he closed 63-64 here last year for T3. Pulled a CANTLAY on Sunday and watched the entire field lap his 73. T47.

J.T. Poston: Copied, pasted. Baby is on the way! Go look at his results in the last six months. Absolutely flying. T11.

Justin Thomas: He’s not in any Signature Events until he qualifies. One leads to another. Saving him for the PGA Championship in his native state of Kentucky outside his birth city of Louisville is understood. T3. Look who’s in the Aon Swing 5! He’s not even in the field this week! Confident!

Patrick Cantlay: If you believe he is going to have a big 2024, I would not be surprised to see it start this week on these three tracks. Sat T10 entering Sunday on 19-under on a course where he holds the scoring record. Shot 76. Cashed T52. Golf. Bloody hell.

Longshots

Taylor Montgomery: When form meets course history…Beat six players.

Patton Kizzire: Probably not in THIS format. Probably everywhere else. The streak ended. There was no format for him this week.

This Week – Farmers Insurance Open

MY CHOICE: Jason Day

It was this week or next! You know this means he’ll win NEXT week, right? NO! THIS WEEK! Cashing T34 last week and T10 in Maui produced eight rounds of 69 or better. Now that the rust is off, time to go join Woods (8) and Mickelson (3) at the top of the food chain in La Jolla.

Other to Consider:

Tony Finau: Making his 10^th visit, he’s T24 or better in eight of nine. Over his last four, he’s hit the top 10 three times and MC once. For those of you playing safe or can’t decide, I’d start here. He will also defend next month in Mexico.

Max Homa: I’m going to save him for Riviera, but he’s defended once in California already at Fortinet (2021, 2022). The last player to successfully defend was Woods from 2005-2008 #FourPeat.

Keegan Bradley: Another proven player in big ballparks, he ran second to Homa last year, also closing with 66. Making his 13^th start, he will have a plan.

Sungjae Im: Looking to make it six-from-six, he will look to make it three straight in the top 10.

Longshots

Harris English

Patrick Rodgers

Taylor Moore

The American Express 2024 Preview

January 17, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Never leave home without it!

The American Express

The Stadium Course at PGA West (Host)

Nicklaus Tournament Course

La Quinta Country Club

La Quinta, CA

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

DFS Angles – click here

Bet365.com – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

Please read the stuff above for the total experience.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll add it here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

If you have any questions, reach out.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (11/2): Go on, take the money, and run, goes the song. As Scheffler’s putter goes, his weekly paycheck increases. Nobody hits it better, but when 25-under or better is required, I’m not sure he has enough makes in the flat stick. Take the top 10 and carry on.

Patrick Cantlay (9/1): Don’t forget he used to dominate in the desert outside Las Vegas! The California desert hasn’t been as profitable, but the Californian has racked up three top-10 paydays, including solo second in 2021, in his last four starts. Owning the course record, 61, at the Stadium Course, he’s also produced 62 at La Quinta. He’s my first name on the team sheet this week.

Xander Schauffele (11/1): Returning for the first time since 2017, the Las Vegas resident closed with 62 at the Stadium Course last year to steal a spot on the podium at T3. The last time we saw him in the winner’s circle was in the summer of 2022 in Scotland before The Open Championship. Sitting in the top five in SG: Approach AND Putting, that’s an incredible streak without a win.

Sungjae Im (20/1): Setting the PGA TOUR record for most birdies in a tournament (34) and cashing T5 at Kapalua, the spotlight shines brightly on him this week. Never finishing better than T10 and never worse than T18, it’s not surprising he’s in the field for the sixth consecutive season. This week will be the first time in six seasons he’s not coming directly from Waialae. The Korean posted 20-under last year, his best total, yet it was only good enough for T18.

Tom Kim (20/1): Once Cantlay left the Las Vegas desert, Kim picked up the ball and ran with it. Winning the event the last two seasons, his first two times in the field, he’s proven he can fill it up in perfect scoring conditions. Cashing T6 here last January, the 21-year-old circled 26 birdies and an eagle, plus signed for 62 at the NT. With plenty of options from Korea in the field, he stands out.

Justin Thomas (22/1): Qualifying for Signature Events in 2024 is the carrot for the two-time major winner. Missing out on the playoffs last season, 2024 will require additional concentration, especially with the PGA Championship in his backyard of Louisville coming up in May. The last time he played The American Express was 2015 (T7). A fresh start to a fresh year. All aboard!

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Stadium Course at PGA West
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,187
Par:	72 (36-36).
Greens:	Overseeded Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Overseed at 1 inch. Dormant Tifgreen Bermuda at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	Over 90 bunkers, seven holes with water in play.
Architect(s):	Pete Dye (1986).
Defending Champion (event):	Jon Rahm (-27; not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Bill Haas (not on this rotation).
Course Record (last):	61; Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021).
72 Hole Tournament Record (2016-current rotation):	261 (-27); Jon Rahm (2023).
Fact of the Week:	Only six international winners from the previous 64 events.
Fact of the Week II:	Johnny Miller is the only player to defend the title (1975-76).

Notes:

Field of 156.
First multi-course event of 2024 and first pro-am.
The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 50.
Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 54 holes (play each course once).
$8.4 million – $1.512 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii	Grayson Murray
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

Recent Winners – The American Express

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Jon Rahm (-27)	Played the final group with Davis Thompson and beat him by a shot to win for the second time.
2022	Hudson Swafford (-23)	Defeated Tom Hoge by two shots to win for the second time.
2021	Si Woo Kim (-23)	Only made two bogeys for the week on the SC/NT rotation to win by one.
2020	Andrew Landry (-26)	Tied the tournament scoring record winning by two.
2019	Adam Long (-26)	Became the first rookie to win since Jhonattan Vegas (2011).
2018	Jon Rahm (-22)	Needed a playoff to knock off Andrew Landry.
2017	Hudson Swafford (-20)	Wet, windy weekend produced the highest winning total to date in the new rota.
2016	Jason Dufner (-25)	Saw off David Lingmerth in a playoff in the first iteration of Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and LQCC

Angles

The Nicklaus Tournament Course plays to Par-72 and 7,147 yards. Playing 7,000 square feet on average, the Overseeded Poa annua greens are the largest of the three courses. Dylan Wu (2023) and Will Zalatoris (2022) have posted 61 here.

La Quinta Country Club is known for premium putting surfaces and usually plays the easiest of the trio. All three courses have minimal rough and green speeds that won’t broach 11 feet. Playing to Par-72 and 7,060 yards, it plays as one of the easiest on TOUR annually. Adam Hadwin posted 59 in Round 3 in 2017.

All eight winners have posted 20-under or better to win and have ranked in the top 10 in Par-4 and Par-5 scoring.

The HIGHEST cut in this rotation in the last three editions was 7-under. The 2021 edition used only the Stadium Course and NT and was a 36-hole chop.

First tournament with Poa annua Greens.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action from Bet365.com:

JT Poston (30/1): Making his third start in three events to start the season, he posted T3 in Las Vegas in the fall, T5 at Sentry, and solo sixth last week. Circling 29 birdies in 2023, he cashed T6 here last season. When trends converge, I jump.

Taylor Montgomery (50/1): Solo fifth on debut last year included three rounds of 66 or better. This desert doesn’t have the distraction of his home tournament in Las Vegas.

Adam Hadwin (60/1): One of the course horses this week, he’s never missed in seven visits and owns four top-10 paydays. Running second to Kim at Shriners in the fall, a missed cut last week at Sony will not deter me.

Taylor Pendrith (80/1): I might add every Canadian to my ticket. In his last five events, he’s posted T15 in four of his last five, including three in the top 10. Buy all you can get.

Grayson Murray (125/1): In six visits he’s posted T14 or better three times. I’ll ride the bounce from last week.

Patton Kizzire (125/1): Second consecutive week as a sponsor’s exemption. Cashing T13 last week, he’ll look to add to T11 and T22 in his previous two visits to La Quinta.

Sam Ryder (150/1): T13 and T10 in his last two appearances during his streak of nine consecutive made cuts.

Chesson Hadley (200/1): Cashing his last eight on TOUR includes T7 twice in two of his last four, including one in Las Vegas. He’s missed the weekend here on his last three trips so something has to give!

Jacob Bridgeman/Adrian Dumont de Chassart (300/1): The kids are all right. After both missed the cut last week, it’s time to put their heads down and make a bunch of birdies, just like they did all last season on the KFT.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii	Corey Conners	18,592
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

Total Winnings:		709,092

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

Back to the mainland and the West Coast swing. Poa annua (except for the North Course at Torrey) for this week, Farmers, and Pebble Beach.

Two major differences this week:

Poa
Three courses

The American Express has produced six different winners over eight editions. Sadly, for gamers and gamblers, the bingo card of conquerors in the desert is quite full.

As I wrote last week, winning $1.5 million this week is great, but that’s almost third place for a major, FedExCup Playoff event, THE PLAYERS or seven more Signature Events.

This is a week where I’m going to take a chance with an angle, consequences be damned!

Recapping Last Week – Sony Open in Hawaii

MY CHOICE: Corey Conners – T57

The Canadian finished the week T80 of 81 players in Putting, needing 126 of them. Right, there were just 72 holes, got it.

Considerations

Eric Cole: Tough laydown this week as his form and function have been firing for months. Just a matter of preference. T13.

Russell Henley: I won’t talk you out of him this week, but I prefer him on a tougher ball-striking layout. Hairs split. Closed with 63 for T4. Sigh.

J.T. Poston: It shouldn’t be a surprise that this is most of my lineup in Expert Picks. Closed with 61 for 6^th. Sigh.

Matt Kuchar: Nobody in the field this week has done it better at Waialae. It’s here or Harbour Town if you’re gonna ride. #ShorterTheBetter. MC. Careful with 40-somethings…

Hideki Matsuyama: Dead last in putting last week. Needed the best putting numbers of his life to win this (his only top 10) two years ago. Careful. T30. If you didn’t use him this week he’s live for TPC Scottsdale or Memorial.

Will Zalatoris: Hard to saddle a guy after 81 and 79 in his last official outing. Be patient. 76-69. See you down the road.

Longshots

J.J. Spaun: I prefer him on Poa, but he’s been super consistent recently. MC

Chan Kim: Hawaiian native lit up the KFT late and has plenty of experience in the Pacific Rim. Ahhhhhhhhhhh, the ol’ 75-64…

This Week: The American Express

MY CHOICE: Adam Hadwin

Nobody is more comfortable on these three courses, and he has the scar tissues to prove it. The Canadian will look to make it eight from eight and add to his three finishes on the podium.

Others to Consider

Tom Kim: Tough laydown, especially after 66 to close at Kapalua to kick-start his 2024. His desert record is making me reconsider this pick until the first tee time on Thursday. Stay tuned.

Chris Kirk: T18-WIN in the last two weeks, plus he closed 63-64 here last year for T3.

J.T. Poston: Copied, pasted.

Justin Thomas: He’s not in any Signature Events until he qualifies. One leads to another. Saving him for the PGA Championship in his native state of Kentucky outside his birth city of Louisville is understood.

Patrick Cantlay: If you believe a big 2024 is brewing, I would not be surprised to see it start this week on these three tracks.

Longshots

Taylor Montgomery: When form meets course history…

Patton Kizzire: Probably not in THIS format. Probably everywhere else.

Sony Open in Hawaii 2024 Preview

January 10, 2024January 11, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

A full field in paradise!

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae Country Club

Honolulu, Oahu, Hawaii

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

DFS Angles – click here

My Venmo – @Mike-Glasscott

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

Please read the stuff above for the total experience.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll add it in here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

If you have any questions, reach out.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Ludvig Aberg (+1600): Started the week as the favorite, wasn’t the favorite Tuesday night, is the favorite again Wednesday morning. Posting 29-under at The RSM Classic is still ridiculous to type. Struggled in all phases last week but that won’t follow him to this flat walk. Get on him in live action after a bogey or two and get better odds!

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800): Navigated a demanding Harbour Town last spring and won on the links of Scotland last fall. Like Aberg and Hatton, first-time participant at the event. No European or English or Brexit or or or has ever won this event.

Tyrrell Hatton (+1800): Same T14 as Fitzpatrick last week but did so with 62 (-11) in Round 2. Didn’t seemed pleased with much of anything so he’s in mid-season form. The argument for splitting the British duo can be made in his favor from the SG department. The counter would be he hasn’t won in three years anywhere in the world. Gambling!

Russell Henley (+2000): Winner 2013, P2 2022, and six of his 11 appearances are T32 or better.

Brian Harman (+2000): T5 last week in one of the biggest ballparks on TOUR. Weirdly, he’s posted only one top-10 result in 12 previous starts here (T4 2018).

JT Poston (+2500): Proven quantity in shootouts on either Bermuda or Bent. The fairway finder will be his key this week because the putter doesn’t take weeks off.

Chris Kirk (+2500): I’m not sure if he’s in the Ernie Els/Justin Thomas category. He will get a chance to prove me wrong. I’d chuck a tenner on him for a top 10 just in case.

Corey Conners (+2500): Ticks too many of the boxes for me this week. Win ticket.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Waialae Country Club.
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,044.
Par:	70 (35-35)
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 7,100 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Celebration Bermuda at almost three inches inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	83/4/5.
Architect(s):	Seth Raynor (1927).
Defending Champion (event):	Si Woo Kim (-18).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	None.
Course Record (last):	59; Justin Thomas (Round 1, 2017).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):	253 (-27); Justin Thomas (2017).
Fact of the Week:	Waialae CC has hosted every event played since 1965 (no event 1970 anywhere).
Fact of the Week II:	Only two of the last 10 winners did NOT play at Kapalua the previous week.

Notes:

Field of 144.
Welcome to 13 of the 30 KFT graduates (10 others are alternates) and five of the 10 DP World Tour players who are eligible.
The OWGR is represented by 22 of the top 50.
Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend.
$8.3 million – $1.494 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Italics – not entered

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

2024 Season Winners

Italics – not entered

Event	Winner
The Sentry	Chris Kirk
Sony Open in Hawaii
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

Recent Winners – Sony Open in Hawaii

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Si Woo Kim (-18)	Shot 64 on Sunday to make up a three-shot deficit and knock out 54-hole leader Hayden Buckley by a shot.
2022	Hideki Matsuyama (-23)	Won a playoff over 54-hole leader and 2013 winner Russell Henley.
2021	Kevin Na (-21)	Shot 61 in Round 3 and held on to beat Chris Kirk by one.
2020	Cameron Smith (-11)	Matched the second highest winning score since 2000. Rain and windy conditions all weekend.
2019	Matt Kuchar (-22)	Won comfortably by four over Andrew Putnam.
2018	Patton Kizzire (-17)	Needed a playoff to win in just his second visit.

Angles

Waialae Country Club stretches to just 7,044 yards, one of the shortest courses on TOUR, and plays to Par-70.

The last ten victors have produced winning scores of 17-under or better nine times.

Of the last 10 winners, eight played the week prior at Kapalua.

Bermudagrass fairways, rough, and greens are in play again this week.

With greens averaging 7,100 square feet, Waialae ranks near the top of the largest putting surfaces on TOUR.

Bermuda rough is approaching three inches this week after a deluge on Monday.

Experienced players flourished in this event from 1997 through 2019. All but three winners were under the age of 30. Over the last four years, only one winner has eclipsed that mark. If you’re good enough, you’re old enough.

The course record, 59, was set in 2017 by Justin Thomas (not entered), in Round 1. He would go on to win and smash the tournament scoring record by three shots as he posted 253 (-27).

The last four champions have represented the International team in the Presidents Cup.

The last five winners have needed four or more previous attempts.

The field of 144 contains 22 of the top 50 OWGR.

Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:

Eric Cole: Doesn’t gain many strokes off the tee but sits 19^th in SG: Approach and 13^th in SG: Putting.

Matt Kuchar: The 2019 champ sits fourth on the all-time money list and was T7 the last two years.

J.J. Spaun: Making 10 consecutive cuts, he’s producedT13 or better in three of his last five on TOUR.

Nick Taylor: I’m always looking to ride the trend, and the Canadian has cashed T32, T11, and T7 in 2023 in his last three here.

Taylor Montgomery: T8 last time out at The RSM Classic and T12 on debut here last year.

Austin Eckroat: The 54-hole leader last year finished second after T12 on debut in 2022.

Takumi Kanaya: Posting top-10 paydays in four of his last five on the Japan Tour, he will get another chance as a sponsor’s exemption this week.

Kevin Kisner: The television announcer try-out has ended. He returns to an event where he’s cashed T4-T32-T3 in his last three visits.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money, and Spotter is yer uncle!

Event	Selection	Earnings
The Sentry	Collin Morikawa	$690,500
Sony Open in Hawaii
The American Express
Farmers Insurance Open

His game has more fun stuff to it, so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@comcast.com for more details and to join.

The second stop on The Opening Drive in Hawaii takes the TOUR to a familiar stop. Waialae has followed Kapalua in every edition since 1999.

Two major differences this week:

No Cut
Field of 144 players

This is not the time to fall in love, but if you had a big week last week (Theegala, Spieth, or a top-five selection) you absolutely can gamble.

The game has completely changed with the additional money added this year.

Winning $1.5 million this week is great, but that’s almost third place for a major, FedExCup Playoff event, THE PLAYERS, or seven more Signature Events.

If you’re one of those folks who plan out all your plays before the season, fantastic.

My approach is more art than science. There’s an old saying that guys peak for six to eight weeks annually. I’m trying to use that angle. I’m also a student of history. I will take in past victories, top finishes, trends, and even flippings of coins.

Last Week – The Sentry

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa – T5

One bogey gang. Not enough. #PickBetterGolfers

Others to consider/fade

Max Homa – Too many events in SoCal for me to use this week. He will defend at Torrey Pines, and Riviera is his personal open. I won’t talk YOU out of him, though. Posting four rounds in the 60s for 22-under didn’t even garner a top 10 (T14).

Xander Schauffele – Should interest the course historians at Kapalua, but the rust bothers ME. You gotta do you. I’ll save him for the U.S. Open or East Lake (if your game uses that event). Considering he played once in the fall, T10 (-24) was a decent haul.

Patrick Cantlay – Another quirk of mine is playing guys where they have won before. Memorial is his jam. Didn’t sign for anything worse than 5-under 68. That also wasn’t good enough to secure a top-10 payday (T12). Amazing.

Jordan Spieth – New folks, it’s either Augusta or Colonial for me. Maybe Pebble. Made a double on his third hole of the week. His next bogey came on his third to last hole. Making 435 feet of putts to lead the field didn’t hurt! T3.

Remember, not playing a guy is OK. There are 14 more chances to use them in BIG EVENTS this season. Of the top 25 OWGR, 21 are in this week. It should be difficult. It will be difficult all season.

Longshots

Sungjae Im – The best of three starts was his debut. He has gone in the wrong direction since. That direction included another top 10 plus solo 12^th. Coming off his first season in five without a podium finish doesn’t inspire, but he knows his way around tee to green. The Korean set the PGA TOUR record for birdies in an event with 34. Sadly, he also shot 73 in Round 3. T5 with 73 is amazing. Bravo! He made more birdies than Pars (30). Hahahahahahaha.

Sahith Theegala – Free roll. Winner at Fortinet in September. ELITE putter who finished 33^rd of 38 last year on these greens. He won’t do that again, promise! I guess I should have used one of these two LONG SHOTS, eh? Solo Second and $2.16 million.

This Week – Sony Open in Hawaii

MY CHOICE: Corey Conners

The last four winners have been his teammates on the Presidents Cup team. The last four winners have needed four previous attempts before hoisting the trophy. Hitting it great last week on approach, he was first or second Strokes-Gained in an elite field. Make a couple more putts this week, and we’re good.

Considerations

Eric Cole: Tough lay down this week. His form and function have been firing for months. Just a matter of preference.

Russell Henley: I won’t talk you out of him this week, but I prefer him on a tough ball-striking layout. Hairs split.

J.T. Poston: It shouldn’t be surprising that this is most of my lineup in Expert Picks.

Matt Kuchar: Nobody in the field this week has done it better at Waialae. It’s here or Harbour Town if you’re gonna ride. #ShorterTheBetter. If Conners is a WD, Kuchar goes in.

Hideki Matsuyama: Dead last in putting last week. Needed the best-putting numbers of his life to win this (his only top 10) two years ago. Careful.

Will Zalatoris: Hard to saddle a guy after 81 and 79 in his last official outing. Be patient.

Longshots

J.J. Spaun: I prefer him on Poa, but he’s been super consistent recently.

Chan Kim: Hawaiian native lit up the KFT late and has plenty of experience in the Pacific Rim.

Welcome Back! The Sentry 2024

January 3, 2024 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Good morning, Kapalua 💚#TheSentry pic.twitter.com/zDZLg8CLak
— The Sentry (@TheSentry) January 2, 2024

The Sentry

The Plantation Course at Kapalua

Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii

Weekly Readers:

Odds Outlook – click here

Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here

Opening Grid – click here

Welcome to 2024 and the new season.

For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:

I write all of the stuff above. I’m not going to necessarily repeat everything in this column. Life is a do-it-yourself job so click and read.

Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll try to add it here.

This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you any hard-earned money for reading.

So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.

I know there are only a few of you so thanks for reading.

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:

Scottie Scheffler (+500): The last three winners here have led the field in SG: Putting. Nobody hits it better but can he it THAT WELL against a field of this class and get away with a cold-putting week? No, says I. Enjoy the free money on the top 10 bets, though.

Viktor Hovland (+800): Maybe the fourth time will be the charm? Form has never been a concern. The last two years he’s arrived after winning the Hero World Challenge in December against an elite field. His best finish is T18. What’s the hang-up? Chipping and putting on Bermuda. Well, he’s appeared to have fixed those issues. I’ll let you wade in at 8-1 to see him put it all together this week.

Collin Morikawa (+1100): Odds have already dropped from 12s to 11s since Monday morning. Not hard to figure out why. He was 35-under in his previous four rounds from 2022 thru Round 3 of 2023. His final round 72 last year saw his six-shot lead evaporate. Fading to T2 he picked up his fourth consecutive T7 or better from four starts. Family on the island. A winner at ZOZO in October. Two-time major champion. Only concern, as usual, could be the flat stick. I’ll start writing win tickets and his name is first on the list.

Ludvig Aberg (+1400): Looking to go back-to-back on TOUR in his 15^th start anywhere as a pro. Wow. Fantastic player will be attacking history from that angle plus the Chopra Angle (keep reading). Too much for me to swallow at that price. Terribly curious to see how he follows up closing 64-61-61 from his win at The RSM though.

Xander Schauffele (+1400): One of the three former champs in the field, his last two years here have been disappointing. After his win, followed by P2 and T5, he cashed 12^th and was a WD (back/neck) last year after opening with 70. Recent winners at Kapalua have produced results in the fall and ridden that momentum to Maui. He’s played once since the Ryde Cup, T38 at ZOZO, and did not hit the Hero. Hasn’t won since July 2022.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400): In the even years, he plays great, solo fourth in 2020 and 2022. In the odd years, he hasn’t cracked the top 12. Is it the Ryder Cup? He hasn’t played since Rome, nor did he play in the weeks leading up after The TOUR Championship. He did get married! Hooking on to a guy who hasn’t played his own ball since early September isn’t for the faint of heart.

Max Homa (+1400): This Californian checks the boxes for me as my No. 2 this week. After winning in South Africa in November, he knocked the rust off in The Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge. I can’t point to a recent full-field event where he wasn’t in the top 25. He finished T3 here last year and will be making his fourth start. Super on the greens as well, I’d expect a big week from him again.

Jordan Spieth (+1800): Nobody loves Horses for Courses more than I do and the Texan qualifies. The 2016 champ hit the podium in his first three, and the top 10 in his first four, but has been quiet since. Tied with Schauffele and Matsuyama more the most starts in the field (7 this week), he knows his way around. With the expanded family, a new baby arrived in September, and a jumpy putter, this number feels like a stretch. He’ll hope for tougher, breezy conditions to allow his creativity and short game to flourish.

Tom Kim (+2200): Debuting last year, he racked up T5 and wondered what all the fuss was about. The birdie machine would be higher on my list if the conditions were benign. I haven’t seen enough of him in the breeze to run him to the front, especially in a field of this strength. Form won’t be a concern as a busy fall worldwide included defending his title in the weather-less Las Vegas desert.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	The Plantation Course at Kapalua
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,596
Par:	73 (36-37)
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 8,722 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	11 feet.
Rough:	Celebration Bermuda at 2.5 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	93/0/0.
Architect(s):	Coore and Crenshaw (1999).
Defending Champion (event):	Jon Rahm (-27; not entered; no longer holds TOUR status).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	None.
Course Record (last):	61; set three times in 2022 (Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Matt Jones, none entered this week).
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):	258 (-34); Cam Smith 2022 (no longer a member on TOUR).
Fact of the Week:	72 holes, no cut.
Fact of the Week II:	There are 18 players making their debut this week. The only player to win on the first attempt at Kapalua was Daniel Chopra in 2008.

Notes:

Field of 59.
Winners in the calendar year 2023 or qualifiers for the BMW Championship are eligible.
The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 25.
First of eight SIGNATURE EVENTS of 2024.
$20 million – $3.6 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2023 Season Winners

Italics – not entered

Event	Winner
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas
The RSM Classic	Ludvig Aberg

Recent Winners – The Sentry

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2023	Jon Rahm (-25)	Won by two, no longer a member on TOUR.
2022	Cam Smith (-34)	Set the tournament scoring record, no longer a member on TOUR.
2021	Harris English (-25)	Won in a playoff on his second visit.
2020	Justin Thomas (-14)	Won a three-man playoff over Schauffele and Reed in breezy conditions.
2019	Xander Schauffele (-23)	Closed with 62, tying the course record, to win on his second try.
2018	Dustin Johnson (-24)	Tied the Plantation course margin of victory, winning by eight shots.

Angles

The Plantation Course tips at 7,596 yards, the third longest course used in 2023, and plays to Par-73.

The Plantation Course has ranked as the easiest course on TOUR the last three seasons, playing more than three shots under par per round annually. Weather is the only deterrent to scoring.

The resort course features generous fairways and the largest greens complexes on TOUR.

Elevation changes and uneven lies will challenge players on second shots.

TifEagle Bermuda greens running at 11 feet will allow players to be aggressive on the short grass.

The last eight winners have produced seven champions who finished first or second in SG: Putting.

The last eight winners have ranked in the top eight in SG: Off the tee.

The last 10 winners of this event have been household names. The best players have no problem going low.

Stretching

Players for the top 10 and top 20 action

Australian Cam Davis (66/1) will try to continue the proud Australian tradition at this event. The last wire-to-wire winner and champion to defend was Geoff Ogilvy (2009-2010). Stuart Appleby rattled off three straight wins from 2004-2006. Cameron Smith set the tournament scoring record in 2022. Making his second start, he quietly picked off a T10 on debut in 2022 with four rounds in the 60s for 23-under.

The top 10 finishers of 2023 included debutants Tom Hoge (150/1) at T3, Tom Kim (22/1) at T5, and Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1) at T7. This year, 18 players are making their maiden voyages at the Plantation Course. While Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark will get most of the looks, Floridian Eric Cole (66/1) makes for a lovely outsider. The 34-year-old rookie ran T3 to Aberg at The RSM Classic to wrap up a fruitful debut season on TOUR. He’s the best putter in the field, loves Bermudagrass, and won’t be bothered by the big names or big ballpark.

Akshay Bhatia (110/1) thrives in coastal settings and when conditions get breezy.

Mackenzie Hughes (150/1) quietly closed 2023 with a runner-up finish to Aberg at The RSM Classic two weeks after cashing T7 at El Cardonal in Mexico. The Canadian opened with 66 and closed with 65 here last year for T21, his best result from three visits.

One and Done

I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…

35 events.

1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee on Thursday).

1 use per year.

Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!

His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.

With EIGHT Signature Events spread out throughout the season, player management becomes a major issue. These events do NOT include the four majors or THE PLAYERS Championship. These events do NOT include the FedExCup Playoffs.

My theory for this game is quite simple: Use the biggest and best for the events with the biggest and best prize pools. Also, if your second guy wins this week, what’s to say he won’t win again in 2024??? Relax, it’s week 1.

This is a bonus week as there is NO CUT. You will cash. Or crash and burn.

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa

Others to consider/fade

Max Homa – Too many events in SoCal for me to use this week. He will defend at Torrey Pines and Riviera is his personal open. I won’t talk YOU out of him, though.

Xander Schauffele – This should interest the course historians at Kapalua but the rust bothers ME. You gotta do you. I’ll save him for the U.S. Open or East Lake (if your game uses that event).

Patrick Cantlay – Another quirk of mine is playing guys where they have won before. Memorial is his jam.

Jordan Spieth – New folks, it’s either Augusta or Colonial for me. Maybe Pebble.

Remember, not playing a guy you will still have 14 more chances to use them in BIG EVENTS this season. Of the top 25 OWGR, 21 are in this week. It should be difficult. It will be difficult all season.

Longshots

Sungjae Im – The best of three starts was his debut and he has gone in the wrong direction since. That direction included another top 10 plus solo 12^th. Coming off his first season in five without a podium finish doesn’t inspire but he knows his way around tee to green.

Sahith Theegala – Free roll. Winner at Fortinet in September. ELITE putter who finished 33^rd of 38 last year on these greens. He won’t do that again, promise!

LAST CALL – RSM CLASSIC

November 15, 2023 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Time to fire back that final shot, pay your tab, and GET INTO THE TOP 125 or THE NEXT 10!

RSM Classic

Sea Island Golf Club

Seaside (host) course

St. Simons Island, Georgia

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Betting Stat Pack – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Odds Outlook – click here

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top 10 players

Ludvig Aberg (11/1): Listing him as the favorite in a field with 11 of the top 50 in the OWGR tells you what the book thinks! This is an event where first-time winners have flourished over the last 13 years.

Russell Henley (14/1): I’m never crazy about backing a guy who hasn’t played in almost three months in a shootout. One quiet round this week to knock the rust off might be too much to overcome. With the wind in play in Round 1, he might find the perfect storm.

Brian Harman (20/1): No current resident has ever won.

Cameron Young (22/1): With the way he hits it, he would prefer windy conditions all four days.

Corey Conners (25/1): Looking to become the third Canadian winner, he’s never cashed better than T10 in four trips.

Eric Cole (25/1): It’s time. Hop on. Bermuda expert.

J.T. Poston (28/1): Already a winner twice in shootouts, his red-hot form is hard to ignore.

Si Woo Kim (33/1): Hasn’t posted a top 10 since June and has MC in his last three visits here. Hits it great tee-to-green so I better throw a top 10 ticket on here just in case!

Denny McCarthy (33/1): Almost three months to the day since his last competitive round. Not many roll it better on the greens.

Adam Svensson (35/1): Reigning champion defends for the first time. Yeah, I’m out.

Alex Noren (35/1): White hot form. Once I back him, you shouldn’t. I’ll give you an early Xmas present by fading him.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Seaside
Yards (per official scorecard):	7,006.
Par:	70 (35-35).
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 7,200 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	12.5.
Rough:	Ryegrass overseed at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	47/14/13
Architect(s):	Colt & Alison (1929); Tom Fazio (1999).
Defending Champion (event):	Adam Svensson (-19).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	Robert Streb (2014, 2020).
Course Record (last):	60; Set twice in 2021 (both not entered); Tommy Gainey 2012, Round 4.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):	260 (-22); Talor Gooch (2022); Kevin Kisner (2015).
Fact of the Week:	Oldest TifEagle Greens on TOUR.
Fact of the Week II:	19-under or better is the winning score over the last SIX editions.

Notes:

Field of 156.
The OWGR is represented by 11 of the top 50.
FINAL EVENT of the FedExCup Fall.
$8.4 million – $1.512 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Fortinet Championship	Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship	Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE	Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship	Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship	Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open	Tony Finau
The RSM Classic	Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen
Butterfield Bermuda	Camilo Villegas

Recent Winners – RSM Classic

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2022	Adam Svensson (-19)	Wins by two for first victory on TOUR.
2021	Talor Gooch (-22)	Matched tournament scoring record; wins by three for first victory on TOUR.
2020	Robert Streb (-19)	Defeated Kisner in a playoff to become the only two-time champion.
2019	Tyler Duncan (-19)	Defeated Webb Simpson in a playoff to win for the first time on TOUR.
2018	Charles Howell III (-19)	Defeated Patrick Rodgers in a playoff for his first win since 2007.

Angles

The Seaside course, covering 7,005 yards and Par-70, will be used in three of the four rounds.

The Plantation course, stretching to just 7,060 yards and playing to Par-72, will be used once before the 36-hole cut.

Both courses are tee-to-green Bermuda grass and TifEagle Bermuda greens.

Svensson is the only winner to sign for a round over 70 on the scorecard. He opened with 73 last year.

Winners here annually rank in the top 10 GIR, SG: Putting, and Scrambling.

Kevin Kisner is the only player in the field this week to post 22-under as a winning total, equaling the tournament scoring record.

The last six winning totals have been 19-under or better. Go low!

The field of 156 contains 11 of the top 50 OWGR.

Stretching

Justin Suh (40/1) will enjoy the generous landing areas and inviting Seaside greens as targets. A super putter, he rolls into town after T10 and a career-best solo fourth in Mexico in his last two starts.

Sea Island resident Davis Thompson (55/1) has been watching this event for as long as his father, Todd, has been running it. Making his fifth appearance, he should be ready to contend on the weekend.

Chesson Hadley (55/1) has cashed T7 in his last two starts on TOUR on resort courses in Las Vegas and Mexico. No point overthinking it.

Sleepers

Will Gordon (100/1), T15 and T21 in his last two on TOUR, is top 10 GIR, and that plays this week. … 2017 winner Austin Cook (150/1) has cashed T10 and T13 in his last two starts on TOUR. … If Kevin Kisner (175/1) is going to figure it out, it’s going to be this week.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

November 8, 2023November 8, 2023 / mikeglasscott / Leave a comment

Aruba, Jamaica, ooooo I wanna take ya

Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Port Royal Golf Course

Southampton, Bermuda

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Betting Stat Pack – click here

Expert Picks – click here

Odds Outlook – click here

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

My thoughts on the top 10 players

Adam Scott (16-1): Sitting on top of the heap this week in a very muted field at Port Royal, he will put the “class v form” argument to the test. The winner of the 2013 Grand Slam of Golf on this track posted T41-MC in Japan in his last two starts. The optimist will point out he’s cashed T7 twice in his last five worldwide.

Alex Noren (18-1): Never a winner on TOUR, it’s hard for me to jump on this number.

Brendon Todd (18-1) owns the tournament scoring record and has posted three top-10 paydays from his last six on TOUR.

Akshay Bhatia (18-1) has the most recent win from this point on the list and up. Superior wind player.

Lucas Glover (20-1) busted his rust with T59 last week after ten weeks on the sidelines. He’ll be hoping the wind blows all weekend!

Thomas Detry (20-1): Making cuts for fun, his streak has reached nine worldwide. Runner up here last year, he also cashed T8 in March in the Dominican Republic. Interesting, yet I’m not sure there’s any value here for a guy who hasn’t won anywhere in the world since 2016.

Alex Smalley (20-1): Cashing in the top 10 twice this summer with T9 at TPC River Highlands and TPC Deere Run, he also produced T11 and T12 the last two years.

Lucas Herbert (22-1): Champion from 2021, the Australian did so in blustery conditions. Hell, I might just stack an all-Aussie card this week just to have some fun in this moribund field.

Taylor Pendrith (22-1): All gamers are looking for an angle. Double-dip here with the “revenge factor” and solid, current form (T15-T3).

Ben Griffin (22-1): Cashing T25 or better in five of his last nine worldwide, he also has unfinished business on the island. Playing from the final group, he was 23-under with seven holes to play. He played the next five holes SIX-OVER PAR (four bogeys, one double) and settled for T3. I wouldn’t have come back.

NOW PLAYING:

Host Course	Port Royal Golf Course.
Yards (per official scorecard):	6,828.
Par:	71 (36-35).
Greens:	TifEagle Bermuda; 8,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:	10.5 feet.
Rough:	419 Bermudagrass at 2 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play	87/4/7.
Architect(s):	Robert Trent Jones (1971); Roger Rulewich (2008).
Defending Champion (event):	Seamus Power (not entered).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:	N/A.
Course Record (last):	61; Taylor Pendrith, Round 2, 2021.
72 Hole Tournament Record (last):	260 (-24); Brendon Todd, 2019.
Fact of the Week:	Shortest course on TOUR.
Fact of the Week II:	Par-71, 6,828 yards for the fifth consecutive event.

Notes:

Field of 132
The OWGR is represented by 2 of the top 50.
Sixth of seven events of the FedExCup Fall
$6.5 million – $1.170 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

Event	Winner
Fortinet Championship	Max Homa
Sanderson Farms Championship	Mackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Keegan Bradley
CJ CUP at CONGAREE	Rory McIlroy
Butterfield Bermuda Championship	Seamus Power
Mayakoba Championship	Russell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston Open	Tony Finau
The RSM Classic	Adam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of Champions	Jon Rahm
Sony Open in Hawaii	Si Woo Kim
The AMERICAN EXPRESS	Jon Rahm (2)
Farmers Insurance Open	Max Homa (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach	Justin Rose
WM Phoenix Open	Scottie Scheffler
The Genesis Invitational	Jon Rahm (3)
The Honda Classic	Chris Kirk
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win)
THE PLAYERS Championship	Scottie Scheffler (2)
Valspar Championship	Taylor Moore (first TOUR win)
Corales Puntacana	Matt Wallace (first TOUR win)
WGC – Dell Technologies MP	Sam Burns
Valero Texas Open	Corey Conners
Masters	Jon Rahm (4)
RBC Heritage	Matt Fitzpatrick
Zurich Classic of New Orleans	Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each)
Mexico Open at Vidanta	Tony Finau (2)
Wells Fargo Championship	Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win)
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jason Day
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka
Charles Schwab Challenge	Emiliano Grillo
Memorial	Viktor Hovland
RBC Canadian Open	Nick Taylor
U.S. Open	Wyndham Clark (2)
Travelers Championship	Keegan Bradley (2)
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Rickie Fowler
John Deere Classic	Sepp Straka
Genesis Scottish Open	Rory McIlroy (2)
The Open Championship	Brian Harman
3M Open	Lee Hodges (first TOUR win)
Wyndham Championship	Lucas Glover
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Lucas Glover (2)
BMW Championship	Viktor Hovland (2)
TOUR Championship	Viktor Hovland (3)
Fortinet Championship	Sahith Theegala
Sanderson Farms Championship	Luke List
Shriners Children’s Open	Tom Kim
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Collin Morikawa
World Wide Technology	Erik van Rooyen

Recent Winners – Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

Year	Winner	Notes
2022	Seamus Power (-19)	Set the tournament record circling TWENTY EIGHT* birdies. Won by one over Thomas Detry.*
2021	Lucas Herbert (-15)	Matched the highest-winning score. Won by a shot for his first TOUR victory in just his 20^th start.
2020	Brian Gay (-15)	Defeated Wyndham Clark in a playoff after closing with 64.
2019	Brendon Todd (-24)	Posted rounds of 63 in Round 2 and closed with 62 to win by four.

Longer Shots, Longest Shots, Others

After a shootout last week in Mexico on Tiger’s track, Mother Nature is probably going to have her say this week. Tight fairways are pinched only by two inches of rough, but awkward, uneven lies will require concentration. Big Bermuda greens, exposed to the elements, will only run around 10 feet.

The winners here have ranged from 20-1, red-hot Seamus Power last year to 200-1 veteran Brian Gay. Wide open would be an understatement.

I can’t look away from Luke List (25-1) this week. With nothing to play for, he’s making the trip. Is it a trip or a trap? … It’s great to see kids Nick Dunlap (50-1) and Peter Kuest (55-1) live, but I’ll take a veteran on the upswing, Lanto Griffin (55-1) at a similar number and take my chances. … Russell Knox (90-1) won’t win but he’ll be playing the weekend. … Kramer Hickok (60-1) will be making his fifth appearance and has posted three previous in the top 30. … Kelly Kraft (110-1) has cashed five in a row and plays ocean courses well. … Satoshi Kodaira (175-1) for a top 40.

Good luck!

Glass Houses

Fantasy Golf Only

#DFS

Mexico Open at Vidanta Preview

Mexico Open at Vidanta

One and Done

This Week – Mexico Open at Vidanta

The Genesis Invitational

WM Phoenix Open Preview

WM Phoenix Open

One and Done

AT&T Pebble Beach Preview

Farmers Insurance Open 2024

The American Express 2024 Preview

One and Done

This Week: The American Express

Sony Open in Hawaii 2024 Preview

Sony Open in Hawaii

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

One and Done

Welcome Back! The Sentry 2024

The Sentry

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

One and Done

LAST CALL – RSM CLASSIC

RSM Classic

Chalk (via Bet365.com)

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Chalk (via Bet365.com)