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Read more: The American Express 2024 PreviewThe American Express
The Stadium Course at PGA West (Host)
Nicklaus Tournament Course
La Quinta Country Club
La Quinta, CA
Weekly Readers:
Odds Outlook – click here
Horses for Courses/Stats Suggest – click here
Expert Picks – click here
DFS Angles – click here
Bet365.com – click here
Golfbet articles from the entire crew – click here
Welcome to 2024 and the new season.
For those of you who are just arriving for the first time, here’s what’s going on:
Please read the stuff above for the total experience.
Information changes from Sunday to Wednesday morning. If there is anything new/exciting/pertinent, I’ll add it here.
This column is me. My thoughts, my humor, my fun, my opinions. I’m not here for grammar lessons, suggestions, or to charge you.
So shut up, keep up, and enjoy it.
If you have any questions, reach out.
Chalk (via Bet365.com)
My thoughts on the top players for betting purposes:
Scottie Scheffler (11/2): Go on, take the money, and run, goes the song. As Scheffler’s putter goes, his weekly paycheck increases. Nobody hits it better, but when 25-under or better is required, I’m not sure he has enough makes in the flat stick. Take the top 10 and carry on.
Patrick Cantlay (9/1): Don’t forget he used to dominate in the desert outside Las Vegas! The California desert hasn’t been as profitable, but the Californian has racked up three top-10 paydays, including solo second in 2021, in his last four starts. Owning the course record, 61, at the Stadium Course, he’s also produced 62 at La Quinta. He’s my first name on the team sheet this week.
Xander Schauffele (11/1): Returning for the first time since 2017, the Las Vegas resident closed with 62 at the Stadium Course last year to steal a spot on the podium at T3. The last time we saw him in the winner’s circle was in the summer of 2022 in Scotland before The Open Championship. Sitting in the top five in SG: Approach AND Putting, that’s an incredible streak without a win.
Sungjae Im (20/1): Setting the PGA TOUR record for most birdies in a tournament (34) and cashing T5 at Kapalua, the spotlight shines brightly on him this week. Never finishing better than T10 and never worse than T18, it’s not surprising he’s in the field for the sixth consecutive season. This week will be the first time in six seasons he’s not coming directly from Waialae. The Korean posted 20-under last year, his best total, yet it was only good enough for T18.
Tom Kim (20/1): Once Cantlay left the Las Vegas desert, Kim picked up the ball and ran with it. Winning the event the last two seasons, his first two times in the field, he’s proven he can fill it up in perfect scoring conditions. Cashing T6 here last January, the 21-year-old circled 26 birdies and an eagle, plus signed for 62 at the NT. With plenty of options from Korea in the field, he stands out.
Justin Thomas (22/1): Qualifying for Signature Events in 2024 is the carrot for the two-time major winner. Missing out on the playoffs last season, 2024 will require additional concentration, especially with the PGA Championship in his backyard of Louisville coming up in May. The last time he played The American Express was 2015 (T7). A fresh start to a fresh year. All aboard!
NOW PLAYING:
| Host Course | Stadium Course at PGA West |
| Yards (per official scorecard): | 7,187 |
| Par: | 72 (36-36). |
| Greens: | Overseeded Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average. |
| Stimpmeter: | 11 feet. |
| Rough: | Overseed at 1 inch. Dormant Tifgreen Bermuda at 2 inches. |
| Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play | Over 90 bunkers, seven holes with water in play. |
| Architect(s): | Pete Dye (1986). |
| Defending Champion (event): | Jon Rahm (-27; not entered). |
| Multiple Champion(s) Entered: | Bill Haas (not on this rotation). |
| Course Record (last): | 61; Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021). |
| 72 Hole Tournament Record (2016-current rotation): | 261 (-27); Jon Rahm (2023). |
| Fact of the Week: | Only six international winners from the previous 64 events. |
| Fact of the Week II: | Johnny Miller is the only player to defend the title (1975-76). |
Notes:
- Field of 156.
- First multi-course event of 2024 and first pro-am.
- The OWGR is represented by 21 of the top 50.
- Top 65 and ties will make the cut and play the weekend after 54 holes (play each course once).
- $8.4 million – $1.512 million – 500 FedExCup points – Sentry and Masters ticket punched.
Season Winners
2023 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| Sentry Tournament of Champions | Jon Rahm |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Si Woo Kim |
| The AMERICAN EXPRESS | Jon Rahm (2) |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Max Homa (2) |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Justin Rose |
| WM Phoenix Open | Scottie Scheffler |
| The Genesis Invitational | Jon Rahm (3) |
| The Honda Classic | Chris Kirk |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win) |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | Scottie Scheffler (2) |
| Valspar Championship | Taylor Moore (first TOUR win) |
| Corales Puntacana | Matt Wallace (first TOUR win) |
| WGC – Dell Technologies MP | Sam Burns |
| Valero Texas Open | Corey Conners |
| Masters | Jon Rahm (4) |
| RBC Heritage | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| Zurich Classic of New Orleans | Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each) |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Tony Finau (2) |
| Wells Fargo Championship | Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win) |
| AT&T Byron Nelson | Jason Day |
| PGA Championship | Brooks Koepka |
| Charles Schwab Challenge | Emiliano Grillo |
| Memorial | Viktor Hovland |
| RBC Canadian Open | Nick Taylor |
| U.S. Open | Wyndham Clark (2) |
| Travelers Championship | Keegan Bradley (2) |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | Rickie Fowler |
| John Deere Classic | Sepp Straka |
| Genesis Scottish Open | Rory McIlroy (2) |
| The Open Championship | Brian Harman |
| 3M Open | Lee Hodges (first TOUR win) |
| Wyndham Championship | Lucas Glover |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | Lucas Glover (2) |
| BMW Championship | Viktor Hovland (2) |
| TOUR Championship | Viktor Hovland (3) |
| Fortinet Championship | Sahith Theegala |
| Sanderson Farms Championship | Luke List |
| Shriners Children’s Open | Tom Kim |
| ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Collin Morikawa |
| World Wide Technology | Erik van Rooyen |
| Butterfield Bermuda | Camilo Villegas |
| The RSM Classic | Ludvig Aberg |
2024 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| The Sentry | Chris Kirk |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Grayson Murray |
| The American Express | |
| Farmers Insurance Open |
Recent Winners – The American Express
Italics – not entered this week.
| Year | Winner | Notes |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm (-27) | Played the final group with Davis Thompson and beat him by a shot to win for the second time. |
| 2022 | Hudson Swafford (-23) | Defeated Tom Hoge by two shots to win for the second time. |
| 2021 | Si Woo Kim (-23) | Only made two bogeys for the week on the SC/NT rotation to win by one. |
| 2020 | Andrew Landry (-26) | Tied the tournament scoring record winning by two. |
| 2019 | Adam Long (-26) | Became the first rookie to win since Jhonattan Vegas (2011). |
| 2018 | Jon Rahm (-22) | Needed a playoff to knock off Andrew Landry. |
| 2017 | Hudson Swafford (-20) | Wet, windy weekend produced the highest winning total to date in the new rota. |
| 2016 | Jason Dufner (-25) | Saw off David Lingmerth in a playoff in the first iteration of Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and LQCC |
Angles
- The Nicklaus Tournament Course plays to Par-72 and 7,147 yards. Playing 7,000 square feet on average, the Overseeded Poa annua greens are the largest of the three courses. Dylan Wu (2023) and Will Zalatoris (2022) have posted 61 here.
- La Quinta Country Club is known for premium putting surfaces and usually plays the easiest of the trio. All three courses have minimal rough and green speeds that won’t broach 11 feet. Playing to Par-72 and 7,060 yards, it plays as one of the easiest on TOUR annually. Adam Hadwin posted 59 in Round 3 in 2017.
- All eight winners have posted 20-under or better to win and have ranked in the top 10 in Par-4 and Par-5 scoring.
- The HIGHEST cut in this rotation in the last three editions was 7-under. The 2021 edition used only the Stadium Course and NT and was a 36-hole chop.
- First tournament with Poa annua Greens.
Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action from Bet365.com:
JT Poston (30/1): Making his third start in three events to start the season, he posted T3 in Las Vegas in the fall, T5 at Sentry, and solo sixth last week. Circling 29 birdies in 2023, he cashed T6 here last season. When trends converge, I jump.
Taylor Montgomery (50/1): Solo fifth on debut last year included three rounds of 66 or better. This desert doesn’t have the distraction of his home tournament in Las Vegas.
Adam Hadwin (60/1): One of the course horses this week, he’s never missed in seven visits and owns four top-10 paydays. Running second to Kim at Shriners in the fall, a missed cut last week at Sony will not deter me.
Taylor Pendrith (80/1): I might add every Canadian to my ticket. In his last five events, he’s posted T15 in four of his last five, including three in the top 10. Buy all you can get.
Grayson Murray (125/1): In six visits he’s posted T14 or better three times. I’ll ride the bounce from last week.
Patton Kizzire (125/1): Second consecutive week as a sponsor’s exemption. Cashing T13 last week, he’ll look to add to T11 and T22 in his previous two visits to La Quinta.
Sam Ryder (150/1): T13 and T10 in his last two appearances during his streak of nine consecutive made cuts.
Chesson Hadley (200/1): Cashing his last eight on TOUR includes T7 twice in two of his last four, including one in Las Vegas. He’s missed the weekend here on his last three trips so something has to give!
Jacob Bridgeman/Adrian Dumont de Chassart (300/1): The kids are all right. After both missed the cut last week, it’s time to put their heads down and make a bunch of birdies, just like they did all last season on the KFT.
One and Done
I’ll be joining Spotter’s game again this season. Now, where did I put my checkbook…
35 events.
1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy gets kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).
1 use per year.
Add up the total money and Spotter is yer uncle!
| Event | Selection | Earnings |
| The Sentry | Collin Morikawa | 690,500 |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Corey Conners | 18,592 |
| The American Express | ||
| Farmers Insurance Open | ||
| Total Winnings: | 709,092 |
His game has more fun stuff to it so reach out @A340Spotter on Twitter or A340Spotter@frontier.com for more details and to join.
Back to the mainland and the West Coast swing. Poa annua (except for the North Course at Torrey) for this week, Farmers, and Pebble Beach.
Two major differences this week:
- Poa
- Three courses
The American Express has produced six different winners over eight editions. Sadly, for gamers and gamblers, the bingo card of conquerors in the desert is quite full.
As I wrote last week, winning $1.5 million this week is great, but that’s almost third place for a major, FedExCup Playoff event, THE PLAYERS or seven more Signature Events.
This is a week where I’m going to take a chance with an angle, consequences be damned!
Recapping Last Week – Sony Open in Hawaii
MY CHOICE: Corey Conners – T57
The Canadian finished the week T80 of 81 players in Putting, needing 126 of them. Right, there were just 72 holes, got it.
Considerations
Eric Cole: Tough laydown this week as his form and function have been firing for months. Just a matter of preference. T13.
Russell Henley: I won’t talk you out of him this week, but I prefer him on a tougher ball-striking layout. Hairs split. Closed with 63 for T4. Sigh.
J.T. Poston: It shouldn’t be a surprise that this is most of my lineup in Expert Picks. Closed with 61 for 6th. Sigh.
Matt Kuchar: Nobody in the field this week has done it better at Waialae. It’s here or Harbour Town if you’re gonna ride. #ShorterTheBetter. MC. Careful with 40-somethings…
Hideki Matsuyama: Dead last in putting last week. Needed the best putting numbers of his life to win this (his only top 10) two years ago. Careful. T30. If you didn’t use him this week he’s live for TPC Scottsdale or Memorial.
Will Zalatoris: Hard to saddle a guy after 81 and 79 in his last official outing. Be patient. 76-69. See you down the road.
Longshots
J.J. Spaun: I prefer him on Poa, but he’s been super consistent recently. MC
Chan Kim: Hawaiian native lit up the KFT late and has plenty of experience in the Pacific Rim. Ahhhhhhhhhhh, the ol’ 75-64…
This Week: The American Express
MY CHOICE: Adam Hadwin
Nobody is more comfortable on these three courses, and he has the scar tissues to prove it. The Canadian will look to make it eight from eight and add to his three finishes on the podium.
Others to Consider
Tom Kim: Tough laydown, especially after 66 to close at Kapalua to kick-start his 2024. His desert record is making me reconsider this pick until the first tee time on Thursday. Stay tuned.
Chris Kirk: T18-WIN in the last two weeks, plus he closed 63-64 here last year for T3.
J.T. Poston: Copied, pasted.
Justin Thomas: He’s not in any Signature Events until he qualifies. One leads to another. Saving him for the PGA Championship in his native state of Kentucky outside his birth city of Louisville is understood.
Patrick Cantlay: If you believe a big 2024 is brewing, I would not be surprised to see it start this week on these three tracks.
Longshots
Taylor Montgomery: When form meets course history…
Patton Kizzire: Probably not in THIS format. Probably everywhere else.
Glass Houses 