Valspar Championship Betting Angles

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort

Copperhead Course

Palm Harbor, Florida

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Thoughts on Valspar

It’s difficult. Really difficult.

The flat tracks of PGA National, Bay Hill, and TPC Sawgrass have been replaced with oak-lined rolling hills and significant elevation changes.

The last four winners have all ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting and top 15 Greens in Regulation.

Par is a decent score again this week. Exactly five players have posted 10-under or better over the last three events.

Five.

This is not a hit-and-giggle or walk in the park after THE PLAYERS Championship. The cut during the last three editions was 2-over, even, and 1-over.

Survive and advance and enjoy the third-hardest three-hole closing stretch on TOUR, “The Snake Pit”.

NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseCopperhead Course
Yards (per official scorecard):7,352.
Par:71 (35-36).
Greens:Poa Trivialis overseed; TifEagle Bermuda; 5,822 square feet.
Stimpmeter:12-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass 3.75 inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play74/8/9.
Architect(s):Larry Packard (1971).
Defending Champion (event):Viktor Hovland (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None.
Course Record:61; Matt NeSmith (Round 2, 2022) & Padraig Harrington (Round 1, 2012). Neither player is in the field this week.
Tournament Scoring Record267 (-17); Sam Burns (not entered), 2022.
Fact of the Week:Since moving to March on the schedule in 2007, the winning margin has been two or fewer shots in every year save 2022.
Fact of the Week II:The course has five Par-3 holes and three Par-5 holes.

Notes:

  • Field of 135.
  • No significant course changes for 2026.
  • The top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • $9.1 million – $1.638 million – 500 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria
Arnold Palmer InvitationalAkshay Bhatia
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipCameron Young

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Valspar Championship

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Viktor Hovland (-11)Broke a three-way tie on 7-under after 54 holes with a final round 67 to defeat Justin Thomas by a shot.
2024Peter Malnati (-12)Shot a final round 67 to win for the second time on TOUR.
2023Taylor Moore (-10)The first of three consecutive champions to post 67 in the final round. Defeated Adam Schenk by one shot.
2022Sam Burns (-17)Defeated Davis Riley in a playoff to successfully defend his title. His tournament scoring record was one of many broken in PERFECT, windless weather.
2021Sam Burns (-17)The event finished in May and Burns won on TOUR for the first time.
2019Paul Casey (-8)The Englishman became the last winner in single digits.

One and Done – Spotter’s Game

LAST WEEK – THE PLAYERS Championship

MY CHOICE: Collin Morikawa – WD

I have no words.

Missing the cut is one thing. Quitting after one hole is another. Glad to see the online sportsbooks refund folks’ money. That was the right thing to do.

As for One and Done, if you tee it, you played. It sucks, but it’s the right call.

Nobody said you didn’t need a little luck in life, but I feel for the McIlroy/Morikawa contingent the last two weeks. Go buy a lottery ticket or two and see if Karma has returned.

Whatever.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816
Arnold Palmer InvitationalScottie SchefflerT24157,000
THE PLAYERSCollin MorikawaWD0

THIS WEEK – Valspar Championship

Xander Schauffele will be on my short list of TWO for the U.S. Open. Brooks Koepka is the defending champion at Shinnecock Hills.

Justin Thomas makes sense this week, but I am not taking my chances on a guy who has just returned from back surgery.

Corey Conners has two wins at Valero, so he stays in the stable.

The Hojgaards have never made a cut here.

Jordan Spieth – Colonial or Augusta.

MY CHOICE: Jacob Bridgeman

Proven in Florida, proven in California.

He played from the final group in 2025 and secured third.

His form is T18 or better in every event this year.

LFG.

Others to consider

Viktor Hovland, Sahith Theegala, Lucas Glover, Billy Horschel, Ryo Hisatsune

Recent Form at Valspar

202520242023
Viktor Hovland (-11)Peter Malnati (-12)Taylor Moore (-10)
wins by 1 (JT)wins by 2 (Cam Young)wins by 1 (Schenk)
Par 71 – 7,352 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 ydsPar 71 – 7,340 yds
156 players156 players144 players
   
02 Justin Thomas -10T3 Chancler Phillips -902 Adam Schenk -9
03 Jacob Bridgeman -9T3 Mackenzie HughesT3 Jordan Spieth -8
T4 Bud Cauley -8T5 Adam Hadwin -8T7 Webb Simpson -4
T4 Ryo HisatsuneT5 Xander SchauffeleT7 Matt Wallace
T4 Billy HorschelT9 C Bezuidenhout -7T10 Justin Thomas -3
07 Davis Riley -711 Lucas Glover -6T10 Nick Taylor
T8 Seamus Power -6T12 Billy Horschel -5T10 Patton Kizzire
T8 Lucas GloverT12 Taylor MooreT10 Zac Blair
T8 Corey ConnersT12 Kevin RoyT19 Davis Riley -1
T12 Eric Cole -5T17 Matt Wallace -4T19 Denny McCarthy
T12 Xander SchauffeleT17 Akshay BhatiaT27 Chad Ramey E
T12 Ricky CastilloT17 Ben GriffinT27 Alex Smalley
T16 Matt McCarty -4T17 Keith MitchellT27 Kevin Streelman
T22 R N P -3T17 Matti SchmidT27 Stephan Jaeger
T22 Emiliano GrilloT17 Andrew NovakT27 Andrew Novak
T22 Joe HighsmithT26 Seamus Power -3 
T22 Jeremy PaulT26 Lee Hodges 
 T26 Kevin Streelman 

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