Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Angles

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Orlando, Florida

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NOW PLAYING:

Host CourseBay Hill Club & Lodge
Yards (per official scorecard):7,466
Par:72 (36-36).
Greens:TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet.
Stimpmeter:13-plus feet.
Rough:Overseeded ryegrass at FOUR inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play84/8/9
Architect(s):Dick Wilson (1961); Arnold Palmer (2009; 2016).
Defending Champion (event):Russell Henley (-11).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Scheffler (2024, 2022).
Course Record:62; Adam Scott (2014, Bentgrass greens) is the only player to post this total since 1984.
72 Hole Tournament Record (post 2016 switch to TifEagle):270; Rory McIlroy (-18, 2018).
Fact of the Week:The last 10 winners have produced seven champions 30 or younger.
Fact of the Week II:The last five champions are from the USA.

Hot weather will make the ball go far this week, but Bay Hill has played over par for the last NINE seasons, regardless of the composition of the field.

The TifEagle Bermuda greens, which have not been overseeded, will be the best and fastest on TOUR yet. Big greens are surrounded by big penalty areas, so don’t be surprised to see balls, especially from the rough, finding the safest tiers on the putting surfaces. Lag putting will be a recipe for success this week.

Notes:

  • Field of 72.
  • The second of three Legacy Signature Events, the API cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 50 and ties play the weekend.
  • The OWGR is represented by 41 of the top 50, BUT 28 of the top 30.
  • $20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points.

Recent Winners

2026 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryNo Event
Sony Open in HawaiiChris Gotterup
The American ExpressScottie Scheffler
Farmers Insurance OpenJustin Rose
WM Phoenix OpenChris Gotterup (2)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmCollin Morikawa
Cognizant ClassicNico Echavarria

2025 Season Winners

EventWinner
The SentryHideki Matsuyama
Sony Open in HawaiiNick Taylor
The American ExpressSepp Straka
Farmers Insurance OpenHarris English
AT&T Pebble BeachRory McIlroy
WM Phoenix OpenThomas Detry (LIV)
The Genesis InvitationalLudvig Aberg
Mexico Open at VidantaBrian Campbell (first time)
Cognizant ClassicJoe Highsmith (first time)
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRussell Henley
Puerto Rico OpenKarl Vilips (first time)
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRory McIlroy
Valspar ChampionshipViktor Hovland
Texas Children’s Houston OpenMin Woo Lee (first time)
Valero Texas OpenBrian Harman
88th Masters TournamentRory McIlroy (career grand slam)
RBC HeritageJustin Thomas
Zurich ClassicBen Griffin & Andrew Novak (first time winners)
THE CJ CUP Byron NelsonScottie Scheffler
Truist ChampionshipSepp Straka (2)
Mrytle Beach One FlightRyan Fox
106th PGA ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (2)
Charles Schwab ChallengeBen Griffin (2)
The 50th Memorial TournamentScottie Scheffler (3)
RBC Canadian OpenRyan Fox (2)
124th United States OpenJ.J. Spaun
Travelers ChampionshipKeegan Bradley
Rocket Mortgage ClassicAldrich Potgieter (first time)
John Deere ClassicBrian Campbell (2)
Genesis Scottish OpenChris Gotterup
ISCO ChampionshipWilliam Mouw (first time)
152nd Open ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (4)
Barracuda ChampionshipRyan Gerard (first time)
3M OpenKurt Kitayama
Wyndham ChampionshipCameron Young (first time)
FedEx St. Jude ChampionshipJustin Rose
BMW ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (5)
The TOUR ChampionshipTommy Fleetwood (first time)
  
FedEx Cup Fall 
Procore ChampionshipScottie Scheffler (6)
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSteven Fisk (first time)
Black Desert ChampionshipMichael Brennan (first time)
Baycurrent ChampionshipXander Schauffele
World Wide Technology ChampBen Griffin (3)
Butterfield Bermuda ChampAdam Schenk (first time)
The RSM ClassicSami Valimaki (first time)

Recent Winners – Arnold Palmer Invitational

Italics – not entered this week.

YearWinnerNotes
2025Russell Henley (-11)Followed T4 in 2024 with his fifth win on TOUR. Beat Morikawa by a shot in the final group.
2024Scottie Scheffler (-15)Second title in three years.  Won by five shots.
2023Kurt Kitayama (-9)First debut winner since 1990.
2022Scottie Scheffler (-5)One of four players broke par in the final round. Course played No. 1 most difficult on TOUR in 2022.
2021Bryson DeChambeau (-11)First of five straight USA-USA-USA winners.

Notables

  • Adam Scott is the only player since 1985 to post 62 (2014) and is one of four to share the course record.
  • Tiger Woods (not entered) has won this event eight times, the most in history. Scheffler is the only multiple winner in the 2026 field.
  • The fairways are 30 yards wide, two yards wider on average than last week at PGA National and overseeded.
  • None of the Par-5 holes plays longer than 590 yards.
  • Since 2016, only Scheffler in 2024 ranked OUTSIDE the top SIX in Par-3 scoring. All four Par-3 holes extend 199 yards or longer.
  • The last seven winners have ranked in the top 10 in Greens in Regulation.
  • After adding TifEagle greens for 2016, nine of 10 winners have ranked in the top 15 in SG: Putting, and all were T21 or better. No weaknesses allowed in the bag this week!

LAST WEEK – Cognizant Classic

MY CHOICE: Daniel Berger – T32

Opening with 67, I was encouraged. After two middle rounds of 71-71, I was DISCOURAGED.

After watching Lowry capitulate in the final three holes with a three-shot lead, T32 is easier to stomach than losing $1 million in 30 minutes.

EventSelectionPlaceEarnings
    
Sony Open in HawaiiRobert MacIntyreT4409,500
The American ExpressBen GriffinT2481,420
Farmers InsuranceJason DayT3841,760
WM Phoenix OpenSahith TheegalaT18122,720
AT&T Pebble BeachPatrick CantlayT14342,500
The Genesis InvitationalTommy FleetwoodT7603,200
Cognizant ClassicDaniel BergerT3254,816

THIS WEEK – Arnold Palmer Invitational

The third of eight Signature Events precedes the biggest payday in golf, THE PLAYERS Championship next week in Ponte Vedra Beach. This week and next will require a podium finish or victory to absorb the dog days of summer.

These are the events to release the hounds and shoot your shot with the biggest and the baddest available. Of the two events spread over the next two weeks, Bay Hill is the more “predictable” of the bunch. TPC Sawgrass, minus the recent McIlroy/Scheffler domination, has produced a cadre of winners, which appeared to be drawn out of a hat.

Also, there is a cut in both events, which SHOULD NOT bother the world’s best, but here we are.

Remember, LIV players, if that is your angle, return for the Masters, PGA Championship, and Open Championship.

MY CHOICE: Scottie Scheffler

Time to kick it into gear for the No. 1 player in the world.

No more farting around on Thursday.

No more Poa annua to piss him off.

The familiarity of Bermuda and two previous victories on a track he loves (nothing worse than T15 in five starts) is the recipe I am looking for this week.

I would not talk you out of playing McIlroy, but this comes down to preference, and I will ride the steadier of the two on a course where hazards do affect play.

I will also remind you that the Truist Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club in May. McIlroy has won that event, a Signature Event, approximately 49,390 times. See you in May, Rors!

Others to consider

Jake Knapp, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood

Longshots

Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Ryan Fox

Horses for Courses

PlayersTopTopScrBay Hill HFC Finishes/Notes
(cuts made/starts)1025Avg 
     
Scottie Scheffler (5/5)3570.60T15 is his worst payday; Only 2x winner playing.
Rory McIlroy (11/11)61070.508 rounds of 66 or better; 2018 winner.
Tommy Fleetwood (7/9)3571.91T11 2025; T3 2019
Justin Rose (13/20)6971.70T8 2025 followed 4 -> MC
Collin Morikawa (3/5)2272.132nd 2025 after 2-> MC; T9 2020
     
Chris Gotterup   First Appearance
Russell Henley (6/9)2371.872025 winner followed T4; 5 –>
Robert MacIntyre (2/2)0171.75T11, T36 L2Y
Xander Schauffele (4/4)0272.63Best payday T24 2020
JJ Spaun (4/5)0073.11T31 2025 best
     
Ben Griffin (2/2)0172.13T45-T14 L2Y
Hideki Matsuyama (10/11)1671.86Only top 10 2016 (T6); T22-T12 L2Y
Sepp Straka (2/6)1173.69T5 2025 with 1st Rd  77!!!
Justin Thomas (4/4)0271.56T12 2024 best; T36 2025
Harris English (9/13)2572.306–> busted 2025; T2 2023, T9 2020
Alex Noren (4/5)0072.72T36 best; First visit since 2023 (T61)
Viktor Hovland (6/7)2272.356–> busted 2025; T10 2023, T2 2022
Keegan Bradley (13/14)5671.50T11 or better 4 of last 5; cashed 13 straight
Jacob Bridgeman (1/1)0171.25Closed 69-68 for T15 on debut 2025
Cameron Young (3/4)1272.50T10 2023; 82-71 MC 2025
Matt Fitzpatrick (8/11)4771.71T27 worst; 2nd 2019 first of 4 straight T10
Ludvig Aberg (3/3)0371.83T22-T25-T24 (a) L3Y
Maverick McNealy (3/5)0073.7573-80 MC 2025; T46 (a) 2016 best
Ryan Gerard   First Appearance
Si Woo Kim (6/10)0173.19T19 2025 best; 4–>
Sam Burns (6/8)1172.93T9 2022; T48, T30 L2Y
Kurt Kitayama (1/2)1171.67MC-WIN; Nobody defends well first time anywhere
Patrick Cantlay (3/3)1171.67T31, T36, and T4 L3Y
Shane Lowry (3/7)2272.207th 2025, 3rd 2024; AWFUL before!
Min Woo Lee (1/4)0075.3073 or WORSE in 9 of 10 rounds
Jason Day (10/12)3771.302016 winner; T8 2025, T10 2023
PlayersTopTopScrBay Hill HFC Finishes/Notes
(cuts made/starts)1025Avg 
Corey Conners (5/7)2571.463rd ’25, 3rd ’21; T21 > last 5
Akshay Bhatia (0/1)   79-73 MC
Matt McCarty   First Appearance
Ryan Fox (1/1)0171.0071-67 to close T14
Andrew Novak (1/1)0072.50T34 debut 2025 included 65 Saturday
Jake Knapp (1/1)0075.00T57 2025 debut
Sam Stevens (1/1)0073.00T40 2025 debut
Pierceson Coody (1/1)0171.00T14 2023 debut; 66 Saturday
Michael Kim (2/3)1271.204th 2025; T17 2017 (a)
Michael Thorbjornsen   First Appearance
Adam Scott (11/15)2471.813rd 2014; T36-MC last 2
Brian Harman  (6/12)0472.58T40-T12 L2Y; T12 best
Nicolai Hojgaard (0/2)0074.003 of 4 rounds > 71
Nick Taylor (5/8)0172.69T31-T12 last 2 best 2
Harry Hall   First Appearance
Daniel Berger (2/3)0271.20T15 2025; T13 2015
Taylor Pendrith (1/3)0074.75T42 2022 debut best
Ryo Hisatsune   First Appearance
JT Poston (3/5)0074.38T50-T55 last 2 best 2
Rickie Fowler (12/13)1472.12Only top 10 2013; T31 best in last 4
Sungjae Im (7/7)2771.46T21 or better in all 7; 2 podiums

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