Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, Florida
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Top of the Board (odds via Bet365)
The two top choices are perched here for a reason. If Bay Hill, as suggested in the golf media, is going to be a wrecking ball again this year, I can’t overlook the two best players on the planet. Now, Kurt Kitayama (not qualified) will remind us that tough conditions do not guarantee anything. I’ll point out the winners here since 2016 are proper players, grinders, and winners, with Kitayama being the exception. It might not be called a major championship, but it will play like one, again.
Justin Thomas and Ludvig Aberg fill in the next lines. Thomas’s run of form extends to late last fall and when Aberg has been healthy, he’s won and hit the top five.
Were we a week too early on Berger, Lowry, or Straka? J.J. Spaun has a pair of podium paydays this season.
Players to consider for Top 10, Top 20, or Top 40 action:
I’ll remind folks Lowry has been playing TGL and hasn’t had many days off recently. At some point, it breaks, just like his driver on Monday.
Akshay Bhatia makes his debut and should embrace the difficulty tee to green.
Red-hot Ben Griffin needed back-to-back T4 paydays just to qualify this week. He was T13 on debut in 2023.
I can’t fathom why Harris English is over 100-1 to win. I’ll gladly buy that down across the top 10, top 20, and top 40 action. Super around here.
Viktor Hovland might be the loftiest of risk-reward plays at +5000. Anything is possible currently!
Michael Kim is also tepid.
NOW PLAYING:
| Host Course | Bay Hill Club & Lodge |
| Yards (per official scorecard): | 7,466 |
| Par: | 72 (36-36). |
| Greens: | TifEagle Bermuda; 7,500 square feet. |
| Stimpmeter: | 13-plus feet. |
| Rough: | Overseeded ryegrass at FOUR inches. |
| Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play | 84/8/9 |
| Architect(s): | Dick Wilson (1961); Arnold Palmer (2009; 2016). |
| Defending Champion (event): | Scottie Scheffler (-15). |
| Multiple Champion(s) Entered: | Scheffler (2024, 2022). |
| Course Record: | 62; Adam Scott (2014) is the only player to post this total since 1984. |
| 72 Hole Tournament Record (post 2016): | 270; Rory McIlroy (-18, 2018). |
| Fact of the Week: | Only two of the last nine winners were older than 30. |
| Fact of the Week II: | The last four champions are from the USA. |
The wind is going to blow four different ways again this week. Unlike last week, the rough is four inches, and will be “pitch-out” in places, especially with water penalty areas protecting greens.
The last player to win back-to-back at Bay Hill was NOT Tiger Woods. It was Matt Every in 2014-15.
Notes:
- Field of 72.
- The cut will be made after 36 holes. The top 50 and ties play the weekend.
- The OWGR is represented by 46 of the top 50.
- $20 million – $4 million – 700 FedExCup points – Sentry, PLAYERS, and Masters ticket punched, plus THREE year exemption.
Recent Winners
- 2025 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| The Sentry | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Nick Taylor |
| The American Express | Sepp Straka |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Harris English |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Rory McIlroy |
| WM Phoenix Open | Thomas Detry (first time) |
| The Genesis Invitational | Ludvig Aberg |
| Mexico Open at VidantaWorld | Brian Campbell (first time) |
| Cognizant Classic | Joe Highsmith (first time) |
- 2024 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| The Sentry | Chris Kirk |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Grayson Murray (Rest in Peace) |
| The American Express | Nick Dunlap (a) |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Matthieu Pavon (rookie) |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Wyndham Clark (54 holes) |
| WM Phoenix Open | Nick Taylor |
| The Genesis Invitational | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Jake Knapp (rookie) |
| Cognizant Classic | Austin Eckroat (first time) |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Scottie Scheffler |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | Scottie Scheffler (2) |
| Valspar Championship | Peter Malnati |
| Texas Children’s Houston Open | Stephan Jaeger (first time) |
| Valero Texas Open | Akshay Bhatia |
| 88th Masters Tournament | Scottie Scheffler (3) |
| RBC Heritage | Scottie Scheffler (4) |
| Zurich Classic | Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry |
| THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson | Taylor Pendrith (first time) |
| Wells Fargo Championship | Rory McIlroy (2) |
| 106th PGA Championship | Xander Schauffele |
| Charles Schwab Challenge | Davis Riley |
| RBC Canadian Open | Robert MacIntyre (first time) |
| The 49th Memorial Tournament | Scottie Scheffler (5) |
| 124th United States Open | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Travelers Championship | Scottie Scheffler (6) |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | Cam Davis |
| John Deere Classic | Davis Thompson (first time) |
| Genesis Scottish Open | Robert MacIntyre (2) |
| 152nd Open Championship | Xander Schauffele (2) |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas |
| 2024 Paris Olympics | Scottie Scheffler (7) |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas |
| Wyndham Championship | Aaron Rai (first time) |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | Hideki Matsuyama (2) |
| BMW Championship | Keegan Bradley |
| The TOUR Championship | Scottie Scheffler (8) |
| FedEx Cup Fall | |
| Procore Championship | Patton Kizzire |
| Sanderson Farms Championship | Kevin Yu (first time) |
| Black Desert Championship | Matt McCarty (first time) |
| Shriners Children’s Open | JT Poston |
| ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Nico Echavarria |
| World Wide Technology Champ | Austin Eckroat (2) |
| Butterfield Bermuda Champ | Rafa Campos (first time) |
| The RSM Classic | Maverick McNealy (first time) |
Recent Winners – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Italics – not entered this week.
| Year | Winner | Notes |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler (-15) | Second title in three years. Won by five shots. |
| 2023 | Kurt Kitayama (-9) | Held off McIlroy, Scheffler and everyone else to win on debut. |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler (-5) | One of four players to break par in the final round. Course played No. 1 most difficult on TOUR in 2022. |
| 2021 | Bryson DeChambeau (-11) | First of four straight USA-USA-USA winners. |
Notables
- Adam Scott (+8000) is the only player since 1985 to post 62 (2014) and is one of four to share the course record.
- Tiger Woods (not entered) has won this event eight times, the most in history. Scheffler is the only multiple champion in the field.
- The fairways are 30 yards wide, two yards wider on average than last week at PGA National, and overseeded.
- TifEagle Bermudagrass greens average 7,500 square feet and will run 13 feet and up on the Stimpmeter.
- 84 bunkers, four inches of rough, and nine holes with water penalty areas.
- None of the Par-5 holes play longer than 590 yards.
- Since 2016, only Scheffler in 2024 ranked OUTSIDE the top SIX in Par-3 scoring. All four Par-3 holes extend 199 yards or longer.
- The last six winners have ranked in the top 10 in Greens in Regulation.
- After adding TifEagle greens for 2016, six of the last nine winners have ranked in the top six in SG: Putting and all were T21 or better. No weaknesses allowed in the bag this week!
One and Done – Spotter’s Game
1 player per event (plus a backup pick if your guy get kidnapped on Wednesday night and doesn’t make it to the first tee Thursday).
1 use per year.
| Event | Selection | Place | Earnings |
| The Sentry | Sungjae Im | 3rd | $1,360,000 |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Russell Henley | T10 | 195,025 |
| The American Express | Adam Hadwin | MC | |
| Farmers Insurance | Jason Day | T32 | 52,080 |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Ludvig Aberg | WD | |
| WM Phoenix Open | Rasmus Hojgaard | T12 | 195,500 |
| Genesis Invitational | Will Zalatoris | T24 | 168,857 |
| Mexico Open | Patrick Rodgers | T25 | 59,350 |
| Cognizant Classic | Daniel Berger | T25 | 73,721 |
LAST WEEK – Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches
MY CHOICE: Daniel Berger T25
No prizes, I’m told, for hitting T24 or T25 in three consecutive weeks!
Four shots off the 54-hole lead without many big names in front of him, it was disappointing to see the local lad post a round of 72, one of only four players on Sunday to sign for a total over par inside the top 25.
ARE WE HAVING FUN YET???
In my weekly local fantasy game, I drafted Joe Highsmith and Jacob Bridgeman last week in Mexico.
It never ends. At least I will have Lowry for Zurich!
Just Missed
Shane Lowry – T11, Russell Henley – T6, Cameron Young – MC, Luke Clanton – T18
THIS Week – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Last year, I said f#ck it, and stuck Scheffler in. I mean, nobody has ever gone back-to-back at THE PLAYERS, so this naturally made sense.
WRONG AGAIN.
I LOST money on picking Scheffler one week early, $500K to be exact.
I didn’t matter in the long run, but still.
THE CHOICE: Keegan Bradley
Course horse, check. Need to get on it before the Ryder Cup Captain needs to focus more on captaining than golf. Hope I haven’t missed my window.
Others to consider:
I’d lean on the elite of the elite this week. Outsiders include Fleetwood, English, and the red-hot Bhatia.
Glass Houses 