JT Poston delivered last year on Sunday to win for the second time on TOUR. He returns to defend the title at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.
John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run
Silvis, Illinois
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NOW PLAYING:
Since 2000 TPC Deere Run has provided the back drop for a summertime shootout. The highest winning total is 16-under, last set by Katie’s dad, Kenny Perry, in 2008. In the following seasons, the winning total never has been less than 18-under.
The fireworks from the Fourth of July will continue all week and into the weekend. This stop has been a haven for first-time winners, but not players winning in their first time at the event.
As I pointed out in the Betting Stat Pack above, 10-under par the last three years was good enough for a top 50 finish. Find fairways and greens and let the putter sing on the perfectly kept L93 Bentgrass greens.
Bogeys are fine this week because there’s a birdie around every corner. Those contending won’t have many more than one bogey per round. Rounds in the 70s need not apply unless followed up with something in the low 60s.
Go low. Make birdies. Have fun. God Bless America!
| Host Course | TPC Deere Run |
| Yards (per official scorecard): | 7,286 (since 2021). |
| Par: | 71 (35-36). |
| Greens: | L93 Bentgrass; 5,500 square feet |
| Stimpmeter: | 12 feet. |
| Rough: | Bluegrass mix at four inches. |
| Bunkers/Water Hazards/In-Play | 76/3/3; slow draining in case of weather. |
| Architect(s): | DA Weibring (1989). |
| Purse (2022): | $7.4 million; $1.332 million winner plus 500 FedExCup points. |
| Defending Champion (event): | JT Poston |
| Multiple Champion(s) Entered: | None. |
| Course Record (last): | 59; Paul Goydos (2010, Round 1). |
| 72 Hole Tournament Record: | 257 (-27); Michael Kim, 2018. |
| Oldest Winner (most recent): | 42; Lucas Glover, 2021. |
| Youngest Winner (event): | 19; Jordan Spieth, 2013. |
| Fact of the Week: | Only two players have won here on debut, Dylan Frittelli (2019) and Sean O’Hair (2005). |
| Fact of the Week II: | The cut the last four editions has been 3-under or 4-under. |
Notes:
- Field of 156 players contains nine of the top 50 OWGR.
- Top 65and ties will play the final 36 holes.
Season Winners
2022-2023 Season Winners
| Event | Winner |
| Fortinet Championship | Max Homa |
| Sanderson Farms Championship | Mackenzie Holmes |
| Shriners Children’s Open | Tom Kim |
| ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP | Keegan Bradley |
| CJ CUP at CONGAREE | Rory McIlroy |
| Butterfield Bermuda Championship | Seamus Power |
| Mayakoba Championship | Russell Henley |
| Cadence Bank Houston Open | Tony Finau |
| The RSM Classic | Adam Svensson (first TOUR win) |
| Sentry Tournament of Champions | Jon Rahm |
| Sony Open in Hawaii | Si Woo Kim |
| The AMERICAN EXPRESS | Jon Rahm (2) |
| Farmers Insurance Open | Max Homa (2) |
| AT&T Pebble Beach | Justin Rose |
| WM Phoenix Open | Scottie Scheffler |
| The Genesis Invitational | Jon Rahm (3) |
| The Honda Classic | Chris Kirk |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Kurt Kitayama (first TOUR win) |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | Scottie Scheffler (2) |
| Valspar Championship | Taylor Moore (first TOUR win) |
| Corales Puntacana | Matt Wallace (first TOUR win) |
| WGC – Dell Technologies MP | Sam Burns |
| Valero Texas Open | Corey Conners |
| Masters | Jon Rahm (4) |
| RBC Heritage | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| Zurich Classic of New Orleans | Davis Riley & Nick Hardy (first TOUR win for each) |
| Mexico Open at Vidanta | Tony Finau (2) |
| Wells Fargo Championship | Wyndham Clark (first TOUR win) |
| AT&T Byron Nelson | Jason Day |
| PGA Championship | Brooks Koepka |
| Charles Schwab Challenge | Emiliano Grillo |
| Memorial | Viktor Hovland |
| RBC Canadian Open | Nick Taylor |
| U.S. Open | Wyndham Clark (2) |
| Travelers Championship | Keegan Bradley (2) |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | Rickie Fowler |
Recent Winners – John Deere Classic
Italics – not entered this week
| Year | Winner | Notes |
| 2022 | JT Poston (-22) | Opened with 62 and became just the third wire-to-wire winner in history. |
| 2021 | Lucas Glover (-19) | First 40-something to win since Steve Stricker completed his three-peat in 2011. |
| 2020 | No event | |
| 2019 | Dylan Frittelli (-21) | Closed with 64 to pick up his first win at the event and first victory on TOUR. |
| 2018 | Michael Kim (-27) | Set the tournament scoring record and tournament margin of victory record. First win on TOUR. |
| 2017 | Bryson DeChambeau (-18) | Closed with 65 from four back to win for the first time on TOUR. |
| 2016 | Ryan Moore (-22) | Only MC at this event from 13 tries is his defense in 2017! |
This Week – John Deere Classic
Chalk (via Bet365.com)
Denny McCarthy (14/1) is perched at the top this week even though he’s yet to win on TOUR in his career. He stood toe-to-toe with Viktor Hovland at the Memorial before falling in a playoff. Never daunted, he signed for T20 at the U.S. Open before racking up another top-10 finish (T7) at the Travelers Championship. A super putter, holing out on the perfect Bentgrass surfaces this week should be right up his alley. Scoring is required this week and he will remind you he opened with 60 in his last event at TPC River Highlands. Last year he posted 16-under thru 54 holes and played from the penultimate group on Sunday before cashing T6.
Russell Henley (16/1) has already proven his ability to go low at TPC Deere Run with his 61 to close in 2019. Claiming solo second that season, he returned in 2021 and missed another top-10 payoff by just one shot, cashing T11. Henley is no stranger to making tons of birdies, one of the few requirements this week. Rolling into town on the back of four consecutive finishes of T19 or better, his only 2023 top 10 was T4 on Bentgrass at the Masters.
This time last season Cameron Young (18/1) was a regular feature on the podium. Flash forward to this season, and he’s grinding to find a way back into the top 10. The last time we saw him in the top 10 was T7 at the Masters. I like that he’s giving TPC Deere Run a shot as his ball-striking prowess should create tons of scoring opportunities. Who doesn’t like having to circle a ton of birdies?
After turning pro in early June, former world No. 1 amateur Ludvig Aberg (25/1) hasn’t been bothered by the direct deposits after the conclusion of play each week he was entered. The Swede has played five events, two as an amateur and three as a pro, and has been around on Sunday for all five. After turning pro in early June, he’s cashed T25 at RBC Canadian Open, T24 at the Travelers Championship, and T40 last week in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The clues are in there, folks, as he’s posted 67 or better in five of his last eight rounds. He would join Dylan Frittelli in 2019 and Sean O’Hair in 2005 to win on their first visit to the event.
Canadian Adam Hadwin (28/1) looks to join his four fellow countrymen in the winner’s circle this season. Losing in a playoff last week after posting 24-under suggests he’s ready to take the next step.
After a solid West Coast Swing with paydays of T22, T4, and solo fifth, Keith Mitchell (28/1) finally returned to the top 25 in his last event, the U.S. Open, on the West Coast! If risk/reward off the tee this week is in play, I’ll remind you he’s ranked second in Total Driving and fifth in SG: Off the Tee. Making his third visit, he cashed T7 in 2018 while MC in 2021.
Taylor Moore (28/1) will look to add his second title of the season this week after winning the Valspar Championship, his first on TOUR, in March. His game was sharp last week in Detroit as he pocketed T4 money after opening with 64, the best round on his own ball this season. The key to his victory at Valspar was holing 64 putts from 64 chances inside of seven feet.
Emiliano Grillo (28/1) shared second place last year on his tournament debut, leading the field in GIR. This year he rolls in with a playoff victory at Colonial to snap a winless drought that stretched back to 2015 and his first start on TOUR with full playing privileges. His current streak is five of eight T23 or better, with three inside the top 10.
Top 10/Top 20/Top 40
Adam Schenk (30/1) has gone close twice this season, losing in a playoff at Colonial to Grillo and being outlasted by only Moore at Valspar. Bouncing back with T7 at Memorial after the playoff loss showed me what I needed to know. Last week he was one of seven players to produce 20-under or better in Detroit so he’s ready for another shootout this week.
Eric Cole (33/1) hasn’t been bothered by any success he’s found in his first year on TOUR. The only paycheck he’s collected outside the top 25 in his last nine starts was T39 at the U.S. Open. The highlight of seven paydays from his last nine starts was T5 in Mexico. His putter is top 20 and he’s top 25 SG: Total.
Cashing in his last eight and 12 of 13 pronouncing Stephan Jaeger (33/1) to be on a HEATER is quite obvious. The best of the bunch was T9 last week in Detroit, a perfect warm-up for this week. Ranking 16th in GIR, nobody on TOUR has made more birdies this season. Asking him to circle a few more this week should excite him.
Former champions Lucas Glover (66/1) and Michael Kim (70/1) are in-form and know their way around this place.
Longer Shots
Use ’em wherever you see fit! All players listed are +20000 or worse and are for a reason or two!
Kevin Streelman (100/1): Grew up in the Chicago suburbs and has posted half of his six paydays in the top 10.
Zach Johnson (125/1): If the magic is going to happen, it’s going to be this week at his most cherished non-major event. Made the cut in his last 14 visits.
Patton Kizzire (150/1): Never missed the weekend from four chances, all T30 or better, but nothing in the top 10.
William Mouw (225/1): Plenty of up-and-comers populate this field annually. The Pepperdine grad turned pro in early June and has played four events on the Korn Ferry Tour. He’s 57-under and has posted 14 of 16 rounds in the 60s. His worst round is 70, twice. His best finish was T17 last week in Kansas City. No chance he’s intimidated by having to make a bunch of birdies. That’s life on the KFT.
Last Week – Rocket Mortgage Classic
Chalk (via BetMGM)
Tony Finau (+1200): Just go over your scorecard from last year if you need any confidence/reminder! 1 bogey, bombs away, eating Par-5s, perfect recipe for a repeat. Missing the cut wasn’t in that recipe!
Rickie Fowler (+1200): Time to put all four rounds together and complete the comeback. As the great John Rathouz pointed out last night, caddie Ricky Romano was on the bag for Nate Lashley’s win here in 2019. Stars aligning and all that. Stars aligned! First win since 2019 WM Phoenix Open. Easiest one of the season, right?
Collin Morikawa (+1600): Bent/Poa. 63 last Friday. Top five Fairways and GIR. You’re buying the putter for four days. Did everything but beat Fowler. P2.
Justin Thomas (+1600): When the floodgates fully open, it won’t be for only one week. Played his final 54 holes last week in 17-under. I’m encouraged he’s in the field this week, knowing that he needs 20-odd under to contend. Sat at home complaining about TV coverage on Sunday like the rest of us. MC.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1800): Playing three straight events suggests he’s healthy. If he’s healthy, he’s going to contend. Smooth 75 to open at event where mid-20s is usually the winning score. MC.
Max Homa (+1800): Blind stat play this week. Last time he MC in two straight he rebounded with a top 10. Like everyone on this list above him minus Finau, he’s looking for his first top 10 payday here. Posted four rounds in the 60s for 15-under. That was good enough for T21. Go LOWER.
Sungjae Im (+1800): Faces Morikawa in a playoff, surely. Trying to figure out how T29 in his last five is the best of the bunch. Trying to figure out how he’s MC in three of those five. Weird. Well, shit. I was CLOSE. Had the Morikawa in the playoff part correct! Two rounds of 70 equals T24.
Tom Kim (+2000): Loves Donald Ross. Closed here last year with 63, tying the course record. Won for the first time at Sedgefield last year, another Ross course, closing with 61. 73-69 MC. Kids, eh?
Keegan Bradley (+2800): Noble to honor his commitment. Doesn’t mean he had to slow the victory party down, either! Pass! T21 with four rounds in the 60s and a hangover. Bravo!
Top 10/Top 20/Top 40
Ludvig Aberg (+4000): Youngsters have no problem making a bucket’s worth of birdies. Not many penalty areas here to avoid. Not much thinking besides smash it and find it. Free. Opened 65-67 and it was on! Closed 73-72 and it was off.
Austin Eckroat (+4500): Quietly rolling along. Free money. Every time I say it’s free money, it’s a MC. Please recalibrate.
Aaron Rai (+5500): T24, T3, and T12 in three of his last four on TOUR. Add T9 and enjoy playing him in Scotland and The Open Championship as well.
Doug Ghim (+6600): T15, T12, T19 and T27 in his last four. Ride the heat in summer! T33 continues an excellent run. Illinois native in the field this week, too!
JJ Spaun (+6600): One of the few with extended course form here.T33 adds to it.
Davis Riley (+8000): Keep reading…Couldn’t carry the momentum from Travelers to Detroit. T33 isn’t the end of the world, unless you sent him to play OAD.
Longer Shots
Use ’em wherever you see fit! All players listed are +20000 or worse and are for a reason or two!
Greyson Sigg (+15000): Turned it around his last two weeks. Closing with 72 for T56 is no bueno.
Matt Wallace (+15000): Happy hunting ground, T10 and T12 from two visits. T78 before flying home and qualifying for The Open Championship on Monday.
Davis Thompson (+20000): Shares the course record. T24 suggests he likes Michigan in the summertime.
Peter Kuest (+35000): Another qualification on Monday. Damn near won the tournament. T4. Bang.
OAD – 2023 Spotter’s Game
| Already Burned |
| Sungjae Im – Maui |
| Tom Kim – Sony |
| Tom Hoge – AMEX |
| Viktor Hovland – Pebble |
| Xander Schauffele – WMPO |
| Max Homa – Riviera |
| Shane Lowry – Honda |
| Tyrrell Hatton – API |
| Akshay Bhatia – PRO |
| Jason Day – THE PLAYERS |
| Justin Rose – Valspar |
| Cam Percy – Corales |
| Scottie Scheffler – WGC MP |
| Rickie Fowler – Valero |
| Jordan Spieth – Masters |
| Collin Morikawa – RBC Heritage |
| Billy Horschel – Zurich |
| Nicolai Hojgaard – Mexico |
| Rory McIlroy – WFC |
| Adam Scott – ATTBN |
| Brooks Koepka – PGA Championship |
| Chris Kirk – Colonial |
| Patrick Cantlay – Memorial |
| Matt Fitzpatrick – RBC CO |
| Jon Rahm – US Open |
| Harris English – Travelers |
| Davis Riley – RMC |
This Week – John Deere Classic
Adam Schenk
Midwest dude. New baby. Course form. Recent form.
It’s a simple formula again for me this week.
Just missed: Denny McCarthy, Emiliano Grillo, Nick Taylor, Patrick Rodgers
Last Week – Rocket Mortgage Classic
Davis Riley – T33
Time to have some fun. With The Open and two FedExCup Playoff events to come, I’ve got some rationing to do with the big boys. Laying down Justin Thomas this week will no doubt come back to haunt me, but whatever. Thankfully this was not accurate. Even better, I’ll have him in Memphis.
I tried to catch a Rickie in a bottle before the Masters. Hindsight suggests that was a bad idea. Don’t be like me. Hindsight has been proven correct. Congrats to all of you who took the Koepka angle and ran with it. Sometimes that’s the best way to play, if you have the player available! See: Smith, Cameron at The Open Championship.
Just missed: Austin Eckroat, Doug Ghim, Carson Young, Ludvig Aberg
Glass Houses 