AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview 2023

Relax, it’s February.

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Torrey Pines Golf Club

South Course (host)

La Jolla, CA

Weekly Readers:

Horses for Courses – click here

Statistically Speaking – click here – has now been rebranded to “Betting Stat Pack” but contains the same information. Change is good!

Expert Picks – click here

By now should be in your bookmarks or in your history so it just pops up. All of our stuff is there so if you haven’t, do it.

I always read Rob Bolton’s stuff after I post and suggest you do the same. For those of you who don’t have Twitter (which is why I’m guessing you’re here to some degree), I’ll start posting Bolton’s Twitter ONLY stuff to help you.

It’s the least I can do after collecting your annual fees.


Back to the hit and giggles of the multi-course Pro-Am!

The good news it is the last one of the season. The better news it is the last multi-course event of the year as well!

The field plays all three courses (listed below) once and the top 60 return to host course Pebble Beach for Sunday’s shootout.

Host CoursePebble Beach Golf Links
Yards (per official scorecard):6,972
Par:72 (36-36)
Greens:Poa annua; 3,500 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:Pushing 12 feet.
Rough:Rye/Poa annua at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards/In Play116/1 (Pacific Ocean).
Architect(s):Douglas Grant & Jack Neville (1919); Jack Nicklaus (1991).
Purse:$9 million ($1.62 winner) plus 500 FedExCup points.
Defending Champion:Tom Hoge (-19).
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:None
72 Hole Tournament Record: Current Rotation265; Brandt Snedeker (2015; not entered).
Course Record:62; Mathias Schwab 2022 (last).
Fact of the Week:Only three first time TOUR winners this century including the defending champion.
Fact of the Week II:Smallest greens on TOUR.
Spyglass Hill 
Yards (per official scorecard):7,041
Par:72 (36-36)
Greens:Poa annua; 5,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:Pushing 12 feet.
Rough:Perennial Rye/Poa annua at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards:62/4/4
Architect(s):Robert Trent Jones, Sr., (1966)
Course Record: (last)62; Luke Donald (2006)
Monterey Peninsula CCShore Course
Yards (per official scorecard):6,934
Par:71 (34-37)
Greens:Poa annua; 6,000 square feet on average.
Stimpmeter:Pushing 12 feet.
Rough:Perennial Rye/Poa annua at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards:130/5/5
Architect(s):Robert Baldock (1960); Mike Stranz (2003).
Course Record: (last)60; Sung Kang (2016)


  • Field of 156
  • Cut to Top 60 and ties after one round on each course
  • Top 60 and ties play the final round at Pebble Beach.

Back to normal Thursday-Saturday this week! My man on the ground at the tournament thinks the weather will be Friday and Sunday. He also warns me that it can change quite quickly this time of the year as well!

Season Winners

2022-2023 Season Winners

Fortinet ChampionshipMax Homa
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipMackenzie Holmes
Shriners Children’s OpenTom Kim
Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipSeamus Power
Mayakoba ChampionshipRussell Henley
Cadence Bank Houston OpenTony Finau
The RSM ClassicAdam Svensson (first TOUR win)
Sentry Tournament of ChampionsJon Rahm
Sony Open in HawaiiSi Woo Kim
Farmers Insurance OpenMax Homa (2)

Recent Event Winners

Italics – not entered this week

2022Tom Hoge (-19)Won for the first time on TOUR, holding off Spieth by two shots.
2021Daniel Berger (-18)Picked up his third top 10 in four starts on the season as he held off local Maverick McNealy by two.
2020Nick Taylor (-19)Became only the 4th international winner as he rolled the field by four shots.
2019Phil Mickelson (-19)Won for the FIFTH time, tying Mark O’Meara for the most victories.
2018Ted Potter, Jr., (-18)Cruised to win by three.
2017Jordan Spieth (-19)Four shot win in his fifth appearance.

This Week – AT&T Pebble Beach

The frolicking on the Monterey Peninsula will include Celebrity Day on Saturday so be warned hard-core golf fans! Plenty of shanks by the captains of industry, entertainment and the sporting world to take up your afternoon!

With the Pro-Am set up and chances of weather on the Carmel Bay, the speed of the greens won’t be off the charts and the rough won’t be challenging.

No wonder the winning score flirts around 20-under!

If the wind/weather is up, Pebble Beach drifts to the most difficult with Spyglass Hill trailing right behind. The relief is usually Monterey Peninsula Country Club (MPCC) as it plays 34-37 with five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes.

The hardest part of this event is showing up. The guys who are here have already told you they embrace the six hour rounds and don’t mind Poa annua.

The hit and giggle will get serious if and when the team game comes into play or the pro gets moving. The lack of length on these three courses suggests any and all will have a chance this week.


Matt Fitzpatrick (+900):T6 last year in his third visit.  No European has ever won this event so I’ll remind everyone he’s from the UK. T12 here in the 2019 US Open.

Jordan Spieth (+1000): 2017 winner went second last year and T3 the year before that. Never missed in 10 tries. Putting together four rounds has been the recent challenge. I’ll point out his last win was on the second smallest greens on TOUR, Harbour Town last spring.

Viktor Hovland (+1000): Doesn’t appear much bothers him! Won the US Amateur here and broke Jack Nicklaus’ amateur US Open scoring record here the following summer.

Maverick McNealy (+2000): Trying to join Tom Hoge and three others since 1994 to win for the first time on TOUR at this event. Grew up on the peninsula and has plenty of reps here and on Poa annua.

Seamus Power (+2000): Blistering close to 2022 with three consecutive top 10s. Added T20 in the Middle East after opening T25 at Kapalua. Former winner at Bermuda on small greens and blustery conditions. T9 last year after leading by FIVE after 36 holes.

Tom Hoge (+2000): Defending for the first time comes with responsibilities unlike normal tournament weeks. Only Dustin Johnson (2009-10) and Mark O’Meara (1989-90) have repeated here since 1980. T12 in 2021 suggests he’s getting more comfortable each time.

Andrew Putnam (+2500): Streak is nine worldwide including T2 on the tiny greens at ZOZO. Already with another top five (T4, Sony) in the New Year and was off last week. One of three 54-hole leaders here last year (T6).

Top 10

Justin Rose

Joel Dahmen

Nick Taylor

SH Kim

Russell Knox

Kevin Streelman

Mark Hubbard


I’m back for another year of punishment, longing and second guessing.

Oh, and I’m in Spotter’s One and Done league again!

Each week I’ll throw five names in here who should or SHOULD NOT be looked upon when making your weekly suggestion.

With only 30-odd events in 2023 it will streamline our decision making quite a bit. Not going to want to roll into the final week with 3 or 4 premium players sitting on the bench!

Jordan Spieth: The track record isn’t the issue. MC last time out 64-75 suggests perhaps the cake isn’t ready to come out of the oven just yet. Gamers who are impatient will point out that waiting for Max Homa last week didn’t work out for me. That’s true until he doesn’t. I can’t go with Spieth this week and then bring him back for the Masters or Colonial. That’s not how it works.

Matt Fitzpatrick: Only win in the States is the US Open. Ha. Save him for a bigger purse at Bay Hill where he’s on a streak of four straight top 10s.

Viktor Hovland: Yep.

Maverick McNealy: Too much event history against for winning but plenty of course knowledge for a top finish.

Kevin Streelman: If he gets hot with Larry Fitz…Not sure we need to dig that deep with only 30-odd events left.

Just missed: Nick Taylor, Joel Dahmen, Justin Suh, Nate Lashley, Troy Merritt

Long Shots

Aaron Baddeley

Peter Malnati

Andrew Novak

Brandon Wu

Scott Brown

Last Week – Farmers Insurance Open

Chalk ran riot as only Will Zalatoris failed to meet expectations. No surprise on a course of this magnitude.

Chalk (via BetMGM)

Jon Rahm (+450): Nothing lasts forever. T7

Tony Finau (+1200): Easy second choice as his form has been steady and he’s no longer a liability when it comes to win tickets. Massive course horse but did MC last year. Won’t have to worry about Ball-Striking! T9

Xander Schauffele (+1200):  Only concern this week will be how his back adjusts to hacking balls out of the bushy Kikuyu/Rye rough. Oh, and it will be chilly in the morning! Local hasn’t had much success here with only one top 20 finish (five back T2 in 2021) and MC in four of seven trips. Too many moving parts for me. T13

Collin Morikawa (+1400): Still baffled he didn’t win Sentry but that won’t bother him. He didn’t close out Sentry because of his Ball-Striking so I’m not worried. West Coast dude on Poa should be a lovely landing spot. 3rd

Justin Thomas (+1600): Maybe the wedding was the distraction? That’s over as of last weekend so congratulations to the newlyweds! Now, back to golf. Only making his fourth start here but did post 63 (T20) on the North Course last year. No point shoving square pegs into round holes. T25

Will Zalatoris (+1600): Should feel like this place owes him one after not being able to close it out from the final group last year. Now with a win under his belt he won’t have that to worry about if he’s in the same spot again. Seems like the bigger and more difficult the course, the more his skill set shines. MC

Max Homa (+2200): Plays well everywhere these days! His part of the world, new dad, full bag, all the signs point this direction. Except that he’s 2-6 here and MC last time around. T9 2020, T18 2021 and missed by just a shot last year suggests he’s figured it out. I would suggest the code is cracked! WINNER.

Sungjae Im (+2200): Good news is he’s back to playing every week after getting married in December. Never missed her in four starts and the best of the bunch was last year by nine shots. T4

Jason Day (+2500): If he’s healthy, which I don’t have any evidence to the contrary, this week should set up perfectly for him. He has the formula around here and his game is trending as well. No surprise if he’s in the mix again. T7

Taylor Montgomery (+2500): No more free lunch! Of his last nine starts eight have cashed T15 or better including solo fifth last week. Power? Yep. Putting? OOOOOOHBABY. T11 here last year on debut with 64 on the North and all three rounds on the South par or better. What’s not to like? T31

Top 10

JJ Spaun (+350): Local lad playing some of his best golf with T25 or better in six of his last seven. MC

Justin Rose (+350): Fits like a glove here. Top 10 in four of his last five visits including a win. T18

Patrick Rodgers (+650): Bit all or nothing here but can give it poke and excels in big ballparks. MC

Ryan Palmer (+650): Won’t mind a bit of wind and has gone close here before. Smooooooooth 82 on Sunday dropped him from T15 to T62. Sad!

Robby Shelton (+750): T23 or better in four of his last seven but T6-MC-T10 in the last three. Never MC in two trips. T67

Danny Lee (+1400): The broomstick has brought life back to his game. Never was a problem tee to green. Won’t have to make as many this week to keep up. MC

First Round Leader

I said wait until Torrey Pines last week.

Well, here we are!

Easy formula comes with reduced odds as FRL is split between the two courses.

JJ Spaun on the North (+3000) 70 LOSS

Austin Smotherman on the South (+6600) 75 LOSS


I’m back for another year of punishment, longing and second guessing.

Oh, and I’m in Spotter’s One and Done league again!

Each week I’ll throw five names in here who should or SHOULD NOT be looked upon when making your weekly suggestion.

With only 30-odd events in 2023 it will streamline our decision making quite a bit. Not going to want to roll into the final week with 3 or 4 premium players sitting on the bench!

This week isn’t a DESGINATED event so there’s that.

Jon Rahm is also in the field, so there’s that as well.

Those who already rode him to victory at Sentry cashed a big prize. Those of you who had him last week received about half. There’s no guarantee he’s going to win on his favorite course this week but that’s one way to play this game.

Here’s my theory:

He’s beyond good enough to win this week and THEN WIN AGAIN. I never read or see anything that suggests he’s ever satisfied so I can wait for a bigger prize pool. IF he wins this week he’s not going to roll into Augusta or Oak Hill and put his feet up and mail it in. I can easily see him winning five or six times so I’m not going to panic on his heat.

Tony Finau will carry the freight for me this week. Comfortably in the shadows of Rahm’s scorched earth policy, the big hitter can and will go about his business on a track he also enjoys, minus a victory.

Will Zalatoris should be in the conversation but he’s also proven he cannot be ignored in the majors when healthy. This was a tough lay down for me so I’ll congratulate Will on his victory now. Only made three bogeys here last year.

Jason Day can also be used at Pebble Beach next week (if he enters) as his short game magic works there as well.

Max Homa/Collin Morikawa should run well but with Riviera  around the corner and the US Open at LACC I’m going to bide my time.

Taylor Montgomery has done nothing to be knocked off this list and needs to be considered.

Just missed: Justin Rose, Ryan Palmer, Hayden Buckley, Luke List (tough to defend the first one),

Long Shots

Sahith Theegala (+5000) T4

Beau Hossler (+12500) MC

Nick Hardy (+12500) T44

Joseph Bramlett (+25000) T13

Lanto Griffin (+25000) T37

Caleb Surratt (+50000) MC

Kelly Kraft (+50000) MC


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s