Paul Casey has WD from the Paul Casey Invitational this year so our stable will be one light. Plenty of others looking to move up that career money list ranking this week!
No breaks in this spring schedule as the Florida Swing wraps up at the difficult Copperhead Course at Innisbrook just outside of Tampa.
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I’d argue the stretch from Riviera thru Copperhead is the most difficult five weeks on TOUR when the schedule lines up the way it did this year. The Kikuyu and Poa of Los Angeles is replaced with TifEagle Bermuda, The Bear Trap, Florida wind and weather at Bay Hill, Pete Dye at TPC Sawgrass and closing the trip with a visit to The Snake Pit.
Larry Packard’s old school Florida design features five Par-3 holes and four Par-5 holes on the 7,340 yard layout. TifEagle Bermuda features for the fourth consecutive week on TOUR so that won’t be an issue. Finding GIR and scrambling for pars will be. After flat walks at Honda, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass, elevation changes return and so do oak trees protecting dog legs.
The 2021 edition was played in late April/early May and produced the lowest winning score since Halloween of 2004. Sam Burns and his 17-under was two shots better than the winter record of 15-under set by Gary Woodland in 2011 on his debut. It’s back to March and the event follows THE PLAYERS Championship just as it did in 2019. Unlike the event last week, the forecast for this week is beautiful and the west coast of Florida has been sunny and dry.
The field of 144 is playing for a prize pool of $7.8 million with the winner taking home $1.404 million plus 500 FedExCup points. The top 65 and ties will play the final two rounds.
Let’s find some horses for courses!
Horses for Courses
| Recent Winners entered this week (cuts made/events entered) | Top 10 | Top 25 | 2022 BET MGM ODDS Win, Top 10, Top 20 |
| 2021: Sam Burns (3/3) | 1 | 2 | +2000; +150; -125 |
| 2017: Adam Hadwin (3/6) | 1 | 2 | +5000; +400; +200 |
| 2016: Charl Schwartzel (4/6) | 2 | 3 | +30000; +2000; +600 |
| Veteran Presence entered this week (cuts made/events entered) | Top 10s | Top 25 | 2022 BET MGM ODDS Win, Top 10, Top 20 |
| Cameron Tringale (5/9) | 2 | 4 | +6600; +500; +250 |
| Vaughn Taylor (6/11) | 1 | 2 | +20000; +1200; +250 |
| Troy Merritt (2/8) | 2 | 2 | +15000; +1000; +400 |
| Louis Oosthuizen (5/8) | 3 | 5 | +2000; +150; -125 |
| Jason Kokrak (6/10) | 3 | 5 | +3500; +275; +135 |
| Bubba Watson (5/9) | 2 | 4 | +4000; +333; +175 |
| Luke Donald (11/12) | 5 | 7 | +35000; +2500; +1000 |
| Scott Stallings (5/10) | 2 | 2 | +15000; +1000; +400 |
| Branden Grace (3/5) | 1 | 1 | +20000; +1200; +450 |
| Webb Simpson (6/10) | 3 | 5 | +5000; +400; +200 |
| Jim Herman (1/5) | 1 | 1 | +30000; +2000; +600 |
| Henrik Stenson (5/6) | 2 | 4 | +25000; +1400; +500 |
| Johh Huh (3/8) | 1 | 2 | +20000; +1400; +500 |
| Bill Haas (8/11) | 1 | 4 | +30000; +2000; +600 |
| Gaining Traction entered this week (cuts made/events entered) | Top 10s | Top 25 | 2022 BET MGM ODDS Win, Top 10, Top 20 |
| Keegan Bradley (3/6) | 1 | 1 | +4000; +400; +200 |
| Viktor Hovland (1/1) | 1 | 1 | +1000; -120; -225 |
| Abraham Ancer (2/2) | 1 | 2 | +2800; +200; +110 |
| Dustin Johnson (2/4) | 1 | 1 | +1400; +120; -150 |
| Denny McCarthy (2/2) | 1 | 1 | +8000; +550; +275 |
| Trey Mullinax (2/3) | 1 | 1 | +30000; +2000; +600 |
| Wesley Bryan (1/2) | 1 | 1 | +40000; +2500; +1000 |
| Justin Thomas (3/4) | 1 | 3 | +1000; -125; -250 |
| Past Champions Entered this week | Top 10s | Top 25 | 2022 BET MGM ODDS Win, Top 10, Top 20 |
| Kevin Streelman (6/11) | 2 | 3 | +12500; +800; +350 |
| Gary Woodland (5/10) | 2 | 2 | +5000; +450; +225 |
| Sean O’Hair (7/15) | 3 | 4 | +35000; +1400; +500 |
Odds sourced on Tuesday, March 15 at 1 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.
Recent Event Winner Stats
| Stats | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
| Winner | Sam Burns | No Event | Paul Casey | Paul Casey |
| Score | 17-under | Covid- 19 | 8-under | 10-under |
| MOV | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cut | 1-under | 1-over | 3-over | |
| Age | 24 | 41 | 40 | |
| Weather Issues | None | None | 60s early, 70s weekend | |
| Pretournament Odds | +6000 | +2000 | +2000 | |
| All Drives | T17 | 16 | 22 | |
| Accuracy | T14 | 9 | T68 | |
| GIR | T35 | T5 | T30 | |
| Ball-Striking | T14 | 1 | 38 | |
| Proximity | 10 | 65 | T22 | |
| Putting: Birdie or Better % | 2 | 2 | 14 | |
| SG: Off-the-Tee | 16 | 6 | 50 | |
| SG: Approach-the-Green | 14 | 7 | 7 | |
| SG: Around-the-Green | 23 | 9 | 3 | |
| SG: Putting | 3 | 43 | 15 | |
| SG: Tee-to-Green | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Scrambling | T30 | 47 | 3 | |
| Bogey Avoidance | T14 | T31 | T1 | |
| Par-3 Scoring | T27 | T24 | T5 | |
| Par-4 Scoring | T6 | T55 | T12 | |
| Par-5 Scoring | 1 | 1 | T5 |
Extra Credit (players entered this week only)
2021
Winner Sam Burns became the third winner in six to lead the field in Par-5 scoring (-15) just as he did in 2019 (T30); posted 63 in Round 2 for the lowest of the week. … Keegan Bradley (2nd) opened with 64 to lead and played in the last group in the final two rounds. … Debutant Viktor Hovland (T3) closed with 65 and led the field with 22 birdies. … Cameron Tringale (T3) led the field in Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance with just four squares on the card. … Abraham Ancer (5th) led the field in Fairways and Strokes-Gained: Putting on his second visit. … Veteran Vaughn Taylor (T6) backed up his T18 from 2019 on his last visit as he needed just 98 putts for the week. … Troy Merritt (T8) finished sixth in 2015 and has MC in all of the rest of his visits. … Louis Oosthuizen (T8) picks up his third top 10 in his last four starts and T20 is his WORST finish ever from eight starts. … Justin Thomas (T13) led the field in Eagles (3), Strokes-Gained: Off the Tee, Tee to Green and Approach the Green. … Defending champion Paul Casey (T21; not entered) couldn’t match Steve Stricker as the last player to win the same TOUR event three times running. … Only Jordan Spieth is a younger winner (21) than Burns (24). … Burns and Bradley matched the 36 hole scoring record (-12). … 109 hole outs on the week, a tournament record. … 25 bogey-free rounds but just four on the weekend. … First time scoring was under par for the week since 2012.
2020
Tournament was cancelled after one round because of COVID-19.
2019
Winner Paul Casey (not entered) defended his 2018 title and became the first to do so in tournament history. He’s also the first multiple winner during the winter/spring editions. Like Burns, Casey also led the field in Par-5 scoring (-15). … Jason Kokrak (T2) trailed only Casey in the Ball-Striking department and backed up his T8 from 2018. … Louis Oosthuizen (T2) closed 66-69, led the field in Strokes-Gained: Around the Green and took only 99 putts. … Bubba Watson (T4) led the field in Bogey Avoidance and was in the top three of Scrambling (2nd) and Strokes-Gained: Off the Tee (3rd); T13 in 2021. … Dustin Johnson (T6) played in the final group with Casey and posted 74. … 2012 champion Luke Donald (T9) picked up his fifth top 10. … Denny McCarthy (T9) picked up a top 10 paycheck on his first appearance. … Scott Stallings (T9) led the field in Birdies (19) and sat one off the 36 hole lead; cashed four straight here thru 2021. … Joel Dahmen (T30) opened with 66 to share the first round lead. … The 2019 edition followed THE PLAYERS Championship. … Just five bogey free rounds all week and none on Sunday. … Course played 71.981 for the week. …
Notes:
• Fourth week running on TifEagle Bermuda on the greens.
• Paul Casey is the only multiple winner in the field.
• Last first time winner was Adam Hadwin (2017).
• Padraig Harrington holds the course record of 61 (Round 1, 2012).
• Last playoff: Charl Schwartzel defeated Bill Haas (2016).
• KJ Choi is the only wire-to-wire winner (2002).
• Oldest winner: Mark Calcavecchia (2007).
• Youngest winner: Jordan Spieth (2015).
• Last six winners have won in their 3rd, 5th, 3rd, 2nd and 3rd attempts.
• Matt Kuchar has cashed 10 of 11 but his last visit was 2018.
• Charley Hoffman signed for T18 in the last two editions.
• Russell Knox has a streak of three straight T25 or better.
• Jimmy Walker has posted four straight of T30 or better.
• Bill Haas is on five straight with T13 in 2019 his last visit.
Key stat leaders
Top golfers in each statistic on the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR are listed only if they are scheduled to compete this week; Select players with top 10 finishes since 2017.
| Par-5 Scoring | |
| Rank | Player |
| 3 | Xander Schauffele |
| 6 | Webb Simpson |
| 7 | Brooks Koepka |
| 11 | Sam Burns |
| 13 | Brian Harman |
| 13 | Viktor Hovland |
| 13 | Louis Oosthuizen |
| 21 | Jason Kokrak |
| 21 | Collin Morikawa |
| 21 | Carlos Ortiz |
| 28 | Hank Lebioda |
| 28 | Justin Thomas |
| 30 | Keegan Bradley |
| 30 | Patton Kizzire |
| Scrambling | |
| Rank | Player |
| 5 | Webb Simpson |
| 6 | Abraham Ancer |
| 7 | Hank Lebioda |
| 8 | Cameron Tringale |
| 13 | Louis Oosthuizen |
| 14 | Brian Harman |
| 16 | Pat Perez |
| 24 | Scott Stallings |
| 25 | Brice Garnett |
| 26 | Bill Haas |
| 27 | Vaughn Taylor |
| 29 | Sean O’Hair |
| Strokes-Gained: Approach | |
| Rank | Player |
| 1 | Collin Morikawa |
| 3 | Justin Thomas |
| 4 | Keegan Bradley |
| 9 | Cam Percy |
| 11 | Matthew NeSmith |
| 12 | Emiliano Grillo |
| 13 | Tyrrell Hatton |
| 14 | Xander Schauffele |
| 15 | Viktor Hovland |
| 16 | Charley Hoffman |
| 18 | Kyle Stanley |
| 19 | Shane Lowry |
| 20 | Russell Knox |
Glass Houses 