OAD: 50th John Deere Classic

The choices this week will be top heavy but the trend of winners here recently suggests that should NOT be the case.

Leaders get the week off while those who are chasing need a home run.

2020-2021 OAD

50 events, the most since the mid-70s, will give us plenty of time for strategy, strength and disaster.

Remember, if you don’t like it, you get DOUBLE YOUR MONEY BACK!

2020-2021 EventsGolfersPlaceTotal $$
    
Safeway OpenBrendan SteeleT2941,391
120th United States OpenJon RahmT23101,797
Corales Punta CanaPat PerezT2139,000
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipDoc RedmanT2846,200
Shriners Hospitals for ChildrenPatrick CantlayT8190,750
CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEKMatthew Wolff73rd16,575
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPTyrrell HattonT2850,137
Bermuda ChampionshipWill ZalatorisT1661,000
Vivint Houston OpenTony FinauT2458,450
84th Masters TournamentJustin Thomas4th552,000
The RSM ClassicRussell HenleyT3039,552
Mayakoba Golf ClassicAbraham AncerT12147,600
Sentry TOCCameron SmithT2463,200
Sony Open in HawaiiDaniel BergerT7200,475
The American ExpressScottie SchefflerMC0
Farmers Insurance OpenMarc LeishmanT1880,761
Waste Management WMPOHideki MatsuyamaT4223,852
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJason DayT7228,930
The Genesis InvitationalAdam ScottT3840,455
WGC- Championship (Concession)Xander SchauffeleT3955,000
Puerto Rico OpenEmiliano GrilloT1172,750
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRory McIlroyT10195,300
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipTommy FleetwoodMC0
The Honda ClassicJoaquin NiemannT2554,950
WGC- Dell Technologies Match PlayJason KokrakT4247,571
Corales PuntacanaThomas PietersT1355,350
Valero Texas OpenCharley Hoffman2nd839,300
85th Masters TournamentJordan SpiethT3667,000
RBC HeritageKevin KisnerMC0
Valspar ChampionshipPatrick ReedMC0
Wells Fargo ChampionshipCorey ConnersT4325,069
AT&T Byron NelsonRyan PalmerT4720,958
PGA ChampionshipViktor HovlandT3059,750
Charles Schwab ChallengeBrian HarmanT8198,875
Memorial TournamentCollin MorikawaP21,013,700
Palmetto ChampionshipMatt FitzpatrickT10177,025
121st United States OpenBrooks KoepkaT4498,176
Travelers ChampionshipPaul CaseyT3630,743
Rocket Mortgage ClassicSungjae ImT8211,875
    
Total Events: 39Top 10: 12MC: 3$6,205,517

Last Week – Rocket Mortgage Classic

The only surprise was the winning score wasn’t lower! Congrats to Cam Davis for a.) Officially shortening his name – less typing for me and b.) Winning for the first time on TOUR. I nearly had the winner for you in here!

THE CHOICE: Sungjae Im – T8

He’s MC in half of his last six and nothing is better than T17 so IT’S TIME.

At least he’s cashed in his two previous visits here but nothing inside the top 20.

I’m going with a Top 40 Fairway, GIR, Birdies, OWGR, Scoring Average after a week off.

I didn’t know he was allowed to take a week off.

I’ve tried to talk myself into this.

Maybe, like last week, I’m doing you a favor and you’ll know who to AVOID!

Hit the top 10 for the fifth time in six weeks but not having a winner this year is suboptimal.

He was four back heading into Sunday but his closing 67 was essentially par in the final round. Go lower next time.

Safety Dance:

Players in here will appear obvious until I explain why they might not be. Remember “one” means ONCE, not again down the road or don’t perhaps “fit” to this event.

Hideki Matsuyama: He’s 28-under over two events here so it’s obvious he’s comfortable. Hit it closer, fam. COVID-19 WD. Bit unlucky that.

Kevin Kisner: When course form smashes directly into current form it’s hard not to fall in love. A pair of 63s last week and a solo third here last year. What could go wrong? T8 with all four rounds in the 60s.

Brian Stuard: It’s his Open. It’s his home state. I know he shouldn’t be in here but this field and this time of year brings us to this point. Of his eight rounds, SIX of them are 68 or better. MC 2-under.

Doc Redman: 32-under over two events cashing second and T21. He’s rattled off five straight on TOUR and that includes T2 at Congaree and T9 at ATT Byron Nelson, another birdie fest. MC and wasn’t close.

Spicy:

Maverick McNealy: Cashing T30 or better on greens this size and smaller. T21 as 72 on Saturday lost almost 1.5 strokes to the field.

Mito Pereira: Holy hell he’s hot! Like Africa hot. Perfect, soft landing knowing he’ll have to be aggressive to contend. 72-71 MC.

Rickie Fowler: Main reason I have him listed is to point out he’s never made the cut in two tries here. Yes, he’s announced he’s going to be a dad so we’ll test that theory as well. T32 with 2 rounds in the 70s.

Sepp Straka: T8 and T11 in his previous two starts here and T10 last week after a run of MC. That’s as spicy as it gets! MC. Extinguished as quickly as it caught fire.

Matthew Wolff: Nobody makes 31 Par-Breakers on accident, folks. Grip and rip. 7-under after 36. 6-under after 72. T58. Just 13 par breakers this year.

Cameron Champ: Absolutely nothing happening but this is a perfect track to turn it around. One off the 36-hole lead in 2019 and T12 last year suggests he’ll overpower this place again. Not even a bit of a happy hunting ground could get him back on track. 71-77 MC. Woof.

3 AM at the Blackjack Table:

Seamus Power – T8, Beau Hossler – T25, Mark Hubbard – MC, Troy Merritt – Lost playoff

This Week – John Deere Classic

Read more in Horses for Courses

Trends are:

1.) 20-something

2.) First-time TOUR winner

3.) Steve Stricker or Zach Johnson

THE CHOICE: Zach Johnson

For my money, if you’re leading it’s him or Stricker. Make the chase pack pick hit the home run. The prize pool ($6.2 million) isn’t going to pay much off the podium so no point in over-thinking this.

If you’re chasing, good luck again this week as rounds in the 70s need not apply. The course record is 59 and the tournament scoring record is 27-under. The highest winning score in the last decade is 18-under.

Safety Dance:

Players in here will appear obvious until I explain why they might not be. Remember “one” means ONCE, not again down the road or don’t perhaps “fit” to this event.

Brian Harman: Yes, he’s appeared in here almost weekly because he’s been that solid. If you haven’t, you should. 2014 winner.

Daniel Berger: On class alone, he’s the alpha this week. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll perform but if you find you haven’t used him, this field would be the place. Some will remind me of his record at Memphis, two wins, but that’s a WGC event. Nobody said this would be easy.

Sungjae Im: As with the two above, none of this troika would continue the trend of first-time TOUR winner. Racked up 23 birdies last week for his best finish in some time.

Kevin Streelman: Hits it too well and should bounce after MC and a week off.

Spicy:

Russell Henley: Opening with 64 and closing with 61 on debut plus making 28 birdies was something. So was 72 in Round 3.

Steve Stricker: Counting on 50-odd year olds to win is a bit daft. But he’s playing well on the Champions Tour so that should pique interest, especially for the desperate or conservatives look to make a cut.

Seamus Power: Too old for the 20-something but right on time for first-time TOUR winner.

Doc Redman: Fits the USGA profile here (Spieth, Moore, DeChambeau) and 20-something and first-time TOUR winner.

Hank Lebioda: Cashed six straight and the last two are T4 and T5. His final two approach putts last Sunday should have him ready to get back to work this week. #Short. #Shorter.

3 AM at the Blackjack Table:

Patrick Rodgers, Roger Sloan, Tyler Duncan, Adam Schenk, Denny McCarthy

Check out my previous results below if you need a history lesson.

History Channeled:

2019-2020

EventGolferPlace$$
The GreenbrierScottie SchefflerT7235,625
Sanderson FarmsSungjae ImP2719,400
Safeway OpenByeong-Hun AnMC0
Shriners Hospitals for ChildrenScott PiercyMC0
Houston OpenHenrik StensonMC0
CJ CUP AT NINE BRIDGESMarc LeishmanT4331,785
ZOZO ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama2nd1,053,000
WGC-HSBC ChampionsXander Schauffele2nd1,095,000
Bermuda ChampionshipDenny McCarthyT1551,750
OHL Mayakoba ClassicRussell KnoxT3336,810
The RSM ClassicHarris EnglishMC0
Sentry TOCRickie FowlerT5285,000
Sony OpenCharles Howell IIIT12116,500
The American ExpressPhil MickelsonMC0
Farmers Insurance OpenTony FinauT6253,125
Waste Management PhoenixBubba WatsonT3386,900
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmBrandt SnedekerMC0
Genesis InvitationalJustin ThomasMC0
Puerto Rico OpenViktor HovlandWIN540,000
WGC-Mexico ChampionshipDustin JohnsonT4845,500
The Honda ClassicDaniel BergerT4280,000
Arnold Palmer InvitationalTommy FleetwoodMC0
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipAbandonedNo Result0
Charles Schwab ChallengeJordan SpiethT10181,875
RBC HeritagePatrick ReedMC0
Travelers ChampionshipBryson DeChambeauT6233,470
Rocket Mortgage ClassicTyrrell HattonT4300,000
Workday Charity OpenJustin RoseMC0
MemorialPatrick CantlayT3251,925
3M OpenWill GordonMC0
WGC-FESJ InvitationalBrooks KoepkaT2695,000
BarracudaBrendan SteeleT538,277
PGA ChampionshipJon RahmT13192,207
Wyndham ChampionshipWebb SimpsonT3312,400
THE NORTHERN TRUSTJason DayMC0
BMW ChampionshipCollin MorikawaT20106780
Total Events: 36Top 10: 14MC: 110

2018-19

My contributions for the major championships and PLAYERS selection were worse than bad so to still break the $10 million mark with those awful results was encouraging.

Another valuable lesson learned is that the Playoffs are for the big boys. Now, WHICH big boys make this more and more difficult and that’s why it’s enjoyable and maddening all at the same time. Only McIlroy and Woods have won the FedExCup twice so start there.

EventGolferPlace$$
Safeway OpenBrendan SteeleT5314,610
CIMB ClassicRyan MooreT6612,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGESGary Woodland2nd1,026,000
WGC-HSBC ChampionsIan Poulter21st93,500
Sanderson FarmsCameron DavisMC0
ShrinersAaron WiseT15101,675
Mayakoba Golf ClassicCharles Howell IIIMC0
The RSM ClassicJ.J. SpaunMC0
Sentry TOCJon RahmT8191,000
Sony OpenMarc LeishmanT3307,200
60th Desert ClassicAndrew PutnamT3429,975
Farmers InsurancePatrick CantlayMC0
WMPOHideki MatsuyamaT15113,600
AT&T Pebble BeachJason DayT4334,400
Genesis OpenJustin Thomas2nd799,200
WGC-Mexico ChampXander SchauffeleT14128,000
Puerto Rico OpenGraeme McDowellT4210,500
The Honda ClassicAdam ScottMC0
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRickie FowlerT4035,490
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipSergio GarciaT22125,000
Valspar ChampionshipPatrick ReedMC0
Corales Punta CanaTrey MullinaxT616,450
WGC-Match PlayPaul CaseyT9167,000
Valero Texas OpenBilly HorschelMC0
MastersRory McIlroyT21107,956
RBC HeritageMatt Kuchar2nd745,200
Zurich ClassicRyan PalmerWIN1,051,200
Wells Fargo ChampionshipPhil MickelsonMC0
AT&T Byron NelsonKeith MitchellT5917,301
PGA ChampionshipBrooks KoepkaWIN1,980,000
Charles Schwab ChallengeJordan SpiethT8197,100
MemorialTony FinauMC0
RBC Canadian OpenJim FurykT2755,100
U.S. OpenTiger WoodsT21117,598
Travelers ChampionshipBubba WatsonT5416,560
Rocket Mortgage ClassicSungjae ImT2168,528
3M OpenBryson DeChambeauT2563,200
John Deere ClassicCollin MorikawaT4264,000
The Open ChampionshipRafa Cabrera BelloMC0
Barbasol ChampionshipDenny McCarthyT1177,000
WGC-FESJIDustin JohnsonT20113,500
Barracuda ChampionshipMartin LairdT7105,437
Wyndham ChampionshipWebb Simpson2nd669,600
THE NORTHERN TRUSTTommy FleetwoodT4327,565
BMW ChampionshipBrandt SnedekerT5351,500
Total Events: 45Top 10s: 14MC: 10$0

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

EventGolferPlace$$
Safeway OpenTony Finau2nd669,600
CIMB ClassicPaul CaseyT7218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGESKeegan BradleyT4723,759
WGC-HSBC ChampionsHideki MatsuyamaT5051,875
Sanderson FarmsChesson HadleyT2464,400
ShrinersPatrick CantlayWIN1,224,000
OHL ClassicKevin ChappellMC0
The RSM ClassicCharles Howell IIIMC0
Sentry TOCKevin KisnerT1799,333
Sony OpenBrian HarmanT4256,266
CareerBuilder ChallengeJason DufnerT3627,189
Farmers InsuranceJon RahmT2943,872
WMPOAlex NorenT2180,040
-AT&T Pebble BeachPhil MickelsonT2488,400
Genesis OpenDustin JohnsonT16111,600
Honda ClassicGraeme McDowellMC0
WGC-MexicoTommy FleetwoodT14126,500
Valspar ChampionshipRyan MooreMC0
Arnold PalmerTyrell HattonT6918,067
WGC-Match PlayPatrick ReedT9163,000
Corales PuntacanaPatrick RodgersT2227,850
Houston OpenLuke ListT2454,162
MastersJordan Spieth3rd748,000
RBC HeritageCameron SmithT3235,510
Valero Texas OpenBilly HorschelT11136,400
Zurich ClassicBud CauleyMC0
Wells Fargo ChampionshipBryson DeChambeau4th369,600
THE PLAYERSFrancesco MolinariMC0
Ft. Worth InvitationalAdam ScottT5216,472
AT&T Byron NelsonJimmy WalkerT6257,950
MemorialTiger WoodsT2376,985
FESJCHenrik StensonT2650,820
US OpenJustin RoseT10270,151
FESJCXander SchauffeleMC0
Quicken Loans NationalKyle StanleyT3236,841
A Military TributeBubba WatsonT13121,632
John Deere ClassicZach JohnsonT1681,366
British OpenRory McIlroyT2694,250
RBC Canadian OpenCharley HoffmanT2937,743
BarracudaMartin LairdT1551,000
WGC-Bridgestone InviteRickie FowlerT17104,250
PGA ChampionshipBrooks KoepkaWIN1,980,000
WyndhamBrandt SnedekerWIN1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUSTJason DayT20101,160
Dell TechnologiesMarc LeishmanT21100,800
BMW ChampionshipGary WoodlandT12189,000
TOUR ChampionshipJustin ThomasT7279,900
Total Events: 47Top 10s: 15MC: 7$10,967,909

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

Thanks for reading!

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