OAD: AT&T Byron Nelson 2021

Same field in numbers as last week, 156.

Same purse and winner’s share as last week, $8.1 million ($1.458 million).

Different field because it’s the week before a major? Check.

Much different course and winning score on the cards.

2020-2021 OAD

50 events, the most since the mid-70s, will give us plenty of time for strategy, strength and disaster.

Remember, if you don’t like it, you get DOUBLE YOUR MONEY BACK!

2020-2021 EventsGolfersPlaceTotal $$
Safeway OpenBrendan SteeleT2941,391
120th United States OpenJon RahmT23101,797
Corales Punta CanaPat PerezT2139,000
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipDoc RedmanT2846,200
Shriners Hospitals for ChildrenPatrick CantlayT8190,750
CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEKMatthew Wolff73rd16,575
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPTyrrell HattonT2850,137
Bermuda ChampionshipWill ZalatorisT1661,000
Vivint Houston OpenTony FinauT2458,450
84th Masters TournamentJustin Thomas4th552,000
The RSM ClassicRussell HenleyT3039,552
Mayakoba Golf ClassicAbraham AncerT12147,600
Sentry TOCCameron SmithT2463,200
Sony Open in HawaiiDaniel BergerT7200,475
The American ExpressScottie SchefflerMC0
Farmers Insurance OpenMarc LeishmanT1880,761
Waste Management WMPOHideki MatsuyamaT4223,852
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmJason DayT7228,930
The Genesis InvitationalAdam ScottT3840,455
WGC- Championship (Concession)Xander SchauffeleT3955,000
Puerto Rico OpenEmiliano GrilloT1172,750
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRory McIlroyT10195,300
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipTommy FleetwoodMC0
The Honda ClassicJoaquin NiemannT2554,950
WGC- Dell Technologies Match PlayJason KokrakT4247,571
Corales PuntacanaThomas PietersT1355,350
Valero Texas OpenCharley Hoffman2nd839,300
85th Masters TournamentJordan SpiethT3667,000
RBC HeritageKevin KisnerMC0
Valspar ChampionshipPatrick ReedMC0
Wells Fargo ChampionshipCorey ConnersT4325,069
Total Events: 31Top 10: 7MC: 3$3,994,415

Last Week – Wells Fargo Championship

Well, to suggest I NAILED it (minus my pick) would be an understatement.

Rory McIlroy saw off Keith Mitchell and all of the rest on Sunday to hit the winner’s circle for the first time since fall of 2019 in Shanghai. Ancer and Hovland plus Wallace and DeChambeau made for a very busy top nine.

Wrong course and wrong day for Mitchell but he’s been playing great as of late and should be on your radar, especially if your picks are thinning like Tiger’s hairline…

THE CHOICE: Corey Conners – T43

I’m running out of choices.

My previous attempts to “get back in the game” have THINNED THE HERD dramatically.

I have to have marquee guys for PGA Championship, US Open 2 and British Open plus WGC-FESJC.

I’ve done this to myself.

I’m about done but writing the column is more fun than making picks anyhow. It’s only fun when you’re winning, I know. The Canadian opened with 69, nice, but that was his only round par or better for the week. Nothing lasts forever and I missed on his hot streak in favor of other “named” players.

Look where that has gotten me!

There’s a lesson each week.

Safety Dance:

Players in here will appear obvious until I explain why they might not be. Remember “one” means ONCE, not again down the road.

Rory McIlroy: The course horse, course record holder, tournament record holder and only multiple winner here. Kiawah could also be a possibility but there’s more evidence here. WINNER for the third time and fourth first or second.

Justin Thomas: Spiritual home of his first major. Playing great with just a minor putter adjustment needed. That minor adjustment didn’t work as he was 58th SG: Putting for the week. Didn’t help he was T26 GIR either. T26

Viktor Hovland: White hot and loves tough courses. T3 and destroyed the place with his irons.

Bryson DeChambeau: All the lumber will be on display. Super short game gets overlooked. Went home on Friday thinking he MC. Returned early Saturday morning to post 68-68 on the weekend for T9.


Abraham Ancer: I wasn’t thrilled to see I already burned him. T26 or better in six straight. Only thing that is missing is W. Closed guns blazing with 66 to take second alone. All four rounds 70 or better.

Max Homa: Only defending champion to hit the top 20 is McIlroy but Homa was on point last week (T6). Defending for the first time is hard, like 11-over hard.

Rickie Fowler: Signs of life last time out. Site of his first win on TOUR. Prove it week after his exemption into the PGA Championship. It’s just not happening at the moment. 70-77 MC.

Joaquin Niemann: Ran hot last week with the putter so I’m confident the ball-striking will come back this week. Nothing worse than 71. Nothing better than 70. T18.

Phil Mickelson: Yep, I went there. Plenty of room to spray it and can put the short game on display. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Shoulda cashed out after Thursday, I agree…69th, nice.

3 AM at the Blackjack Table:

Emiliano Grillo – T14, Matt Wallace – T6, Harold Varner III – MC, Matthew NeSmith – T58, Joel Dahmen – T18

This Week – AT&T Byron Nelson

Read more in Horses for Courses

If, according to locals like Ryan Palmer and Colt Knost, this place is going to get run over if the wind doesn’t blow, my confidence level for this week is waning. It’s never easy when 20-under or so is projected because obviously the door is open to more than less.

Everyone makes birdies.

It’s also the week before a major so that always throws a monkey in the wrench for depth of field.

TPC Craig Ranch outside Dallas should have plenty of local flavor and that might not be a bad place to start. Guys who can handle shots in the wind seem more comfortable in Texas than perhaps elsewhere. I’ll take a gander at TPC San Antonio for recent results and even a look at TPC Scottsdale, another Weiskopf design, just in case.

Good luck!

THE CHOICE: The Course Record Holder – Ryan Palmer

His 61, according to him, is the course record and that’s good enough for me in a week of newness. He’s a lifelong Texan, lives currently in Colleyville and has played the course more than a couple of dozen times.

And I haven’t used him yet!

Safety Dance:

Players in here will appear obvious until I explain why they might not be. Remember “one” means ONCE, not again down the road.

Scottie Scheffler: Another with a home game this week plus a 59 to his name.

Marc Leishman: Noted wind player coming off T5 at Masters and WIN at Zurich suggests his form won’t be the issue. Second on debut at Trinity Forest.

Will Zalatoris: Local with plenty of local knowledge, like Scheffler, won’t care what the winning score will need to be. Only concern is managing the off course and on course for this home game.

Keith Mitchell: Another who is plenty warm at the moment after bending his putter back the right direction.


Thomas Pieters: I’m not sure you’re going to burn him anywhere else and he absolutely clobbers it. Plenty of recent finishes T15 or better worldwide.

Carlos Ortiz: Was going GREAT last week before Sunday and 78 or whatever that saw him plummet. North Texas grad will be right at home.

Si Woo Kim: Never afraid to make a shit load of birdies. Wide open off the tee will help.

Aaron Wise: Made a ton of birdies at Trinity Forest across town posting 23-under in a debut event.

3 AM at the Blackjack Table:

Charl Schwartzel, Camilo Villegas, Wyndham Clark, Scott Piercy, Sung Kang

Check out my previous results below if you need a history lesson.

History Channeled:


The GreenbrierScottie SchefflerT7235,625
Sanderson FarmsSungjae ImP2719,400
Safeway OpenByeong-Hun AnMC0
Shriners Hospitals for ChildrenScott PiercyMC0
Houston OpenHenrik StensonMC0
CJ CUP AT NINE BRIDGESMarc LeishmanT4331,785
ZOZO ChampionshipHideki Matsuyama2nd1,053,000
WGC-HSBC ChampionsXander Schauffele2nd1,095,000
Bermuda ChampionshipDenny McCarthyT1551,750
OHL Mayakoba ClassicRussell KnoxT3336,810
The RSM ClassicHarris EnglishMC0
Sentry TOCRickie FowlerT5285,000
Sony OpenCharles Howell IIIT12116,500
The American ExpressPhil MickelsonMC0
Farmers Insurance OpenTony FinauT6253,125
Waste Management PhoenixBubba WatsonT3386,900
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmBrandt SnedekerMC0
Genesis InvitationalJustin ThomasMC0
Puerto Rico OpenViktor HovlandWIN540,000
WGC-Mexico ChampionshipDustin JohnsonT4845,500
The Honda ClassicDaniel BergerT4280,000
Arnold Palmer InvitationalTommy FleetwoodMC0
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipAbandonedNo Result0
Charles Schwab ChallengeJordan SpiethT10181,875
RBC HeritagePatrick ReedMC0
Travelers ChampionshipBryson DeChambeauT6233,470
Rocket Mortgage ClassicTyrrell HattonT4300,000
Workday Charity OpenJustin RoseMC0
MemorialPatrick CantlayT3251,925
3M OpenWill GordonMC0
WGC-FESJ InvitationalBrooks KoepkaT2695,000
BarracudaBrendan SteeleT538,277
PGA ChampionshipJon RahmT13192,207
Wyndham ChampionshipWebb SimpsonT3312,400
BMW ChampionshipCollin MorikawaT20106780
Total Events: 36Top 10: 14MC: 110


My contributions for the major championships and PLAYERS selection were worse than bad so to still break the $10 million mark with those awful results was encouraging.

Another valuable lesson learned is that the Playoffs are for the big boys. Now, WHICH big boys make this more and more difficult and that’s why it’s enjoyable and maddening all at the same time. Only McIlroy and Woods have won the FedExCup twice so start there.

Safeway OpenBrendan SteeleT5314,610
CIMB ClassicRyan MooreT6612,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGESGary Woodland2nd1,026,000
WGC-HSBC ChampionsIan Poulter21st93,500
Sanderson FarmsCameron DavisMC0
ShrinersAaron WiseT15101,675
Mayakoba Golf ClassicCharles Howell IIIMC0
The RSM ClassicJ.J. SpaunMC0
Sentry TOCJon RahmT8191,000
Sony OpenMarc LeishmanT3307,200
60th Desert ClassicAndrew PutnamT3429,975
Farmers InsurancePatrick CantlayMC0
WMPOHideki MatsuyamaT15113,600
AT&T Pebble BeachJason DayT4334,400
Genesis OpenJustin Thomas2nd799,200
WGC-Mexico ChampXander SchauffeleT14128,000
Puerto Rico OpenGraeme McDowellT4210,500
The Honda ClassicAdam ScottMC0
Arnold Palmer InvitationalRickie FowlerT4035,490
THE PLAYERS ChampionshipSergio GarciaT22125,000
Valspar ChampionshipPatrick ReedMC0
Corales Punta CanaTrey MullinaxT616,450
WGC-Match PlayPaul CaseyT9167,000
Valero Texas OpenBilly HorschelMC0
MastersRory McIlroyT21107,956
RBC HeritageMatt Kuchar2nd745,200
Zurich ClassicRyan PalmerWIN1,051,200
Wells Fargo ChampionshipPhil MickelsonMC0
AT&T Byron NelsonKeith MitchellT5917,301
PGA ChampionshipBrooks KoepkaWIN1,980,000
Charles Schwab ChallengeJordan SpiethT8197,100
MemorialTony FinauMC0
RBC Canadian OpenJim FurykT2755,100
U.S. OpenTiger WoodsT21117,598
Travelers ChampionshipBubba WatsonT5416,560
Rocket Mortgage ClassicSungjae ImT2168,528
3M OpenBryson DeChambeauT2563,200
John Deere ClassicCollin MorikawaT4264,000
The Open ChampionshipRafa Cabrera BelloMC0
Barbasol ChampionshipDenny McCarthyT1177,000
WGC-FESJIDustin JohnsonT20113,500
Barracuda ChampionshipMartin LairdT7105,437
Wyndham ChampionshipWebb Simpson2nd669,600
THE NORTHERN TRUSTTommy FleetwoodT4327,565
BMW ChampionshipBrandt SnedekerT5351,500
Total Events: 45Top 10s: 14MC: 10$0

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Safeway OpenTony Finau2nd669,600
CIMB ClassicPaul CaseyT7218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGESKeegan BradleyT4723,759
WGC-HSBC ChampionsHideki MatsuyamaT5051,875
Sanderson FarmsChesson HadleyT2464,400
ShrinersPatrick CantlayWIN1,224,000
OHL ClassicKevin ChappellMC0
The RSM ClassicCharles Howell IIIMC0
Sentry TOCKevin KisnerT1799,333
Sony OpenBrian HarmanT4256,266
CareerBuilder ChallengeJason DufnerT3627,189
Farmers InsuranceJon RahmT2943,872
WMPOAlex NorenT2180,040
-AT&T Pebble BeachPhil MickelsonT2488,400
Genesis OpenDustin JohnsonT16111,600
Honda ClassicGraeme McDowellMC0
WGC-MexicoTommy FleetwoodT14126,500
Valspar ChampionshipRyan MooreMC0
Arnold PalmerTyrell HattonT6918,067
WGC-Match PlayPatrick ReedT9163,000
Corales PuntacanaPatrick RodgersT2227,850
Houston OpenLuke ListT2454,162
MastersJordan Spieth3rd748,000
RBC HeritageCameron SmithT3235,510
Valero Texas OpenBilly HorschelT11136,400
Zurich ClassicBud CauleyMC0
Wells Fargo ChampionshipBryson DeChambeau4th369,600
THE PLAYERSFrancesco MolinariMC0
Ft. Worth InvitationalAdam ScottT5216,472
AT&T Byron NelsonJimmy WalkerT6257,950
MemorialTiger WoodsT2376,985
FESJCHenrik StensonT2650,820
US OpenJustin RoseT10270,151
FESJCXander SchauffeleMC0
Quicken Loans NationalKyle StanleyT3236,841
A Military TributeBubba WatsonT13121,632
John Deere ClassicZach JohnsonT1681,366
British OpenRory McIlroyT2694,250
RBC Canadian OpenCharley HoffmanT2937,743
BarracudaMartin LairdT1551,000
WGC-Bridgestone InviteRickie FowlerT17104,250
PGA ChampionshipBrooks KoepkaWIN1,980,000
WyndhamBrandt SnedekerWIN1,080,000
Dell TechnologiesMarc LeishmanT21100,800
BMW ChampionshipGary WoodlandT12189,000
TOUR ChampionshipJustin ThomasT7279,900
Total Events: 47Top 10s: 15MC: 7$10,967,909

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

Thanks for reading!


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