Preview: 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The famous Pebble Beach Golf Links will provide the test this week, along with Spyglass Hill GC, to sort our who takes home $1.404 million and 500 FedExCup points. Course history torched me last week but navigating Pebble does take a bit of nous.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach Golf Links (host)

Spyglass Hill

Monterey Peninsula, California

Pebble Beach Golf Links 
Yards (per official scorecard):7,051
Par:72 (36-36)
Greens:Poa annua; 3,500 square feet (tiny).
Stimpmeter:10.5′.
Rough:Ryegrass.
Bunkers/Water Hazards118/Pacific Ocean.
Architects:Douglas Grant & Jack Neville (1919); Jack Nicklaus (1991).
Course Record:62; David Duval (1997); Tom Kite (1983).
  
Spyglass Hill Golf Course 
Yards (per official scorecard):7,041
Par:72 (36-36)
Greens:Poa annua; 5,000 square feet.
Stimpmeter:10.5′.
Rough:Ryegrass at two inches.
Bunkers/Water Hazards62/4 (in play on four holes).
Architects:Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1966).
Course Record:62; Luke Donald (2006), Phil Mickelson (2005).
Purse:$7.8 million; $1.404 million and 500 FedExCup points (winner).

Notes:

  • Field of 156.
  • Top 65 and ties play the weekend.
  • Pebble Beach will host the weekend.
  • No amateurs this year.

2020-2021 Season Winners

*- First-time winner

**- First-time winner AND rookie winner

EventWinner
Safeway OpenStewart Cink
120th United States OpenBryson DeChambeau
Corales Punta Cana ChampionshipHudson Swafford
Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSergio Garcia
Shriners Hospitals for ChildrenMartin Laird (playoff)
CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEKJason Kokrak*
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIPPatrick Cantlay
Bermuda ChampionshipBrian Gay
Vivint Houston OpenCarlos Oritz*
84th Masters TournamentDustin Johnson
The RSM ClassicRobert Streb
Mayakoba Golf ClassicViktor Hovland
Sentry TOCHarris English
Sony Open in HawaiiKevin Na
The American ExpressSi Woo Kim
Farmers Insurance OpenPatrick Reed
Waste Management Phoenix OpenBrooks Koepka

Check out HORSES FOR COURSES for more details and angles for this week.

Previous Winners: *Playoff

YearWinner Comment
2020Nick Taylor-19Canadian becomes only second wire-to-wire win this century (Phil Mickelson, 2005).
2019Phil Mickelson-19Came from five back to win for the fifth time, T-most in tournament history (Mark O’Meara).
2018Ted Potter, Jr.-17Defeated Dustin Johnson (not entered) by three shots heads up in the final group.
2017Jordan Spieth-19Walk in the park as he won by four shots over Kelly Kraft.
2016Vaughn Taylor-17Hung on to defeat Mickelson by a shot.
2015Brandt Snedeker-22Tournament scoring record; won by three.

Facts and Figures:

Lowest Rounds – Last Year64; Pebble Beach Jason Day (Rd. 2) & Chris Baker (Rd. 2). 66: Spyglass Hill Patrick Cantlay (Rd. 1) & Matt Every (Rd 2).
Defending Champion(s) Event:Dustin Johnson (2009-2010) only player this century.
Multiple Champion(s) Entered:Phil Mickelson (5); Brandt Snedeker (2);
Oldest  Winner:48; Phil Mickelson (2019).
Youngest Winner:23; Jordan Spieth (2017).
First Time – TOUR:D.A. Points (2011) – only player since 2006.
First Time – EventBrett Ogle (1993).
Odd Fact:Only four internationals have won, ever. Only two this century.
Odd Fact II:Streak of 15 consecutive winners from the USA was broken last year by Taylor.

Quick Thoughts

Clam Bake. The Crosby. Pebble. It’s all the same, folks so let’s enjoy.

I’ll enjoy it even more this year as we don’t lose an entire day to watching  celebrities and titans of industry hitting shots and doing interviews.

No amateurs means two courses and a split field should be able to get around in normal time and that will help.

Eliminating Monterey Peninsula Country Club also eliminates a chance to “get back into it”. It was the easiest course in the rotation and, like the amateurs, will return in 2022.

Course Ratings the last three years

Pebble Beach: 8th, 12th and 16th most difficult.

Spyglass Hill: 5th, 20th and 20th most difficult.

Field is VERY THIN this week and that should have the interest of the big-name players. When they smell blood…

The weather isn’t as bad as I’ve heard some say. Check for yourself. Make your own decision. Rain is late on Thursday but the wind on the weekend will affect everyone.

Bermuda-Poa-Bermuda and back to Poa this week and next at Riviera. Ryegrass rough this week before Kikuyu returns in Los Angeles.

Smallest greens on TOUR for 54 holes suggest finding those who can hit them or short gamers who can find ways to keep bogeys off the card.

Chalk – Betting favorites and my opinions on them

Patrick Cantlay (+750): Form isn’t the question. Only one round in the 60s on Pebble Beach in four events. Did open with 66 at Spyglass last year before T11. Last time out closed 61 at AMEX for 2nd.

Daniel Berger (+1400): MC last week but all 8 rounds here previous are 70 or better.

Paul Casey (+1600): Should have won here in 2019 but couldn’t hold off a charging Mickelson. Red hot desert form in the Middle East included a win, T8 and T12. MC last year 73-81 gives me pause but T8 in 2018 helps.

Will Zalatoris (+1800): He was +4000 last week, folks and cashed T17. First-timers at Pebble are beyond rare but he’s special. Not for me at this price.

Jason Day (+1800): Same as Zalatoris? Ok, mate. Do your thing here as you always do. Any rust should be well gone entering this week (MC-MC).

Jordan Spieth (+2200): False positive? Negative positive? Spin it any way you like, but the blood is flowing again and the feels are returning. Combine that with a track where he’s won and I’m more than curious. New factor this week will be doing it in the breeze. Nibble.

Francesco Molinari (+2200): Quietly going about his business with T15, T10 and T8 in his last four. Has no problem getting around links golf. Interesting.

Si Woo Kim (+3000): A bit too much all or nothing for me at this price.

My Long Shots and Others 33-1 or worse

Max Homa (+3300): Big form and big course history makes for an excellent combo. Closed with 67 on Pebble his last two visits. Top 10.

Sam Burns (+3300): Smashes the shit out of it but this week will test more facets.

Kevin Streelman (+3300): Loves small greens and this event so don’t be surprised if it’s four top 10s after this week.

Cameron Davis (+3300): This will be his fourth consecutive appearance. T38 last year was the best of the bunch. Let’s keep the trend going into top 20 money.

Cameron Tringale (+4000): Another week, another top 20.

Phil Mickelson (+4000): Gotta stick him in. Each way. Top 10. Top 20. Let’s go down in flames if we’re gonna jump on with him.

Matt Jones (+5000): Best was last year’s T5. Enters on nine straight. Move him up.

Matthew NeSmith (+6000): Too many GIR and solid irons. Can he pop on Poa?

Maverick McNealy (+7500): T5 last year, Stanford, Bay Area.

Scott Stallings (+8000): Another course horse. Form is off-putting.

Andrew Putnam (+8000): First player to go bogey free at TPC Scottsdale over four rounds, ever.

Scott Piercy (+10000): Strong course form combines with recent WD issues.

Kevin Chappell (+15000): Top 20.

Joseph Bramlett (+15000): T18 last year and a quality ball-striker.

Grayson Murray (+30000): Make the cut.

Rob Oppenheim (+30000): Top 20 for my dude, Jake.

Tim Wilkinson (+30000): Make the cut.

Chris Baker (+40000): Same.

Bo Van Pelt (+75000): Yeah.

Last Week’s Recap

Chalk – Betting favorites and my opinions on them

Jon Rahm (+650):Favorite for the second week in a row and for the second week in a row at this price. I told you last week there’s no value and the only surprise would be him NOT finishing inside the top five. He didn’t. He was T7. This is his home game and I like him more this week than last. T13 in the most comfortable of circumstances. Tough.

Justin Thomas (+800): Took a big plane ride to the Middle East to MC at Abu Dhabi after Sony. Still dealing with the blow back from his anti-gay slur. Record here is great, not sure where his head is at. T13 as he played with a heavy heart after losing his grandfather during the tournament.

Rory McIlroy (+1000): Another Sunday, another round over par last week at Torrey. It’s going to burst at some point and maybe the change of scenery helps. His record when he shows up on brand new courses is ridiculous so 10-1 doesn’t chase me completely away. Brooks Koepka won on debut here as a kid so it’s not impossible by any means. Solved the Sunday issue with 64 but not even that could produce a back-door top 10.

Xander Schauffele (+1100): Momentum since his “win” at The TOUR Championship has been ridiculous and it shouldn’t stop this week.  Didn’t play here last year but I doubt that will matter. It can’t, won’t and it don’t stop. T2. Fantastic player in shit-hot form.

Webb Simpson (+1600): Defending champions are rare here but another top 10 shouldn’t be out of the question. Start there. Crash burn. Opened with 73 and that was that. Worst finish (T42) ever.

Daniel Berger (+2000): Another who has put together an 11 month run of form. With three top 10s from five weekends here, I don’t think that run is cooling off. Especially not after solo 10th and T7 on the Hawaii swing. Get in. Annnnnnnnnnd get out. MC by a shot.

Harris English (+2800): Didn’t see that coming last week! Back on Bermuda should help tremendously as he’s T16 or better in four of nine here.  Top 20. Woof. MC by two. One of many course historians who failed to light the lamp this week. He wasn’t alone by any means.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2200): He was +2500 last week in an event where he’s had one top 10 career. Never finishing worse than T16 in six weekends and being a two time winner provides some clues. His last two appearances were his worst two, T15 and T16. Add T42 to his collection. Disappointing no-show.

My Long Shots and Others 33-1 or worse

(If you don’t see your player on here, you’ve answered the question you were going to ask me)

Sungjae Im (+3300): Same as last week. Same odds. Same conundrum. His T32 last week after T12 wasn’t terribly surprising. Now, do we get DESERT SUNGJAE this week? I think so. Top 10 and Top 20.  We get half of the ticket with T17.

Will Zalatoris (+4000): I’m not going to be any later to this party than I already have been. Wasn’t bothered by 7,765 yards and a big field last week so I’m throwing him in. T17 with bookend 71s is something.

Brooks Koepka (+4000): He was +3500 last week on a track where he’s never done anything. Former winner here is begging for action. Not me. After three straight MC it wasn’t a hard decision. Fantastic close to make plenty eat it.

Rickie Fowler (+4000): Not enough for anything but a curiosity dabble on a top 10.  Hope you saved your money as he MC.

Ryan Palmer (+4500): Surely he can’t keep it up? Playing fantastically and had plenty of success here before the last five visits. Nibbles up the ladder but another top 20 should be on the way. T42 and another one bites the dust.

Bubba Watson (+5000): Too much course form to leave him out of the top 10. 65 on Sunday was too little, too late T22.

Billy Horschel (+5500): One bad round keeps popping up. The other three are usually very solid. I’m patient. T8 after 36. T53 after 72.

Corey Conners (+6600): Cashed in eight straight and six of those are T25 or better. Make it seven of nine as the Canadian is rolling.

Max Homa (+8000): Price slashed this week after T18 but I’m still interested,  just like I was last week. Riding three straight of T26 or better. Four rounds of 70 or better = T42. Gotta go low here a couple of times.

Carlos Ortiz (+9000): 54-hole leader last week flamed out Sunday. I remember Kyle Stanley doing this at Torrey and coming back and smoking the field a week later at TPC Scottsdale. Almost. 64 on Sunday for T4.

Sebastian Munoz (+10000): Metric play of the week. Sprinkle across. Co-DFL.

Henrik Norlander (+10000): Closed 68-69 at Torrey. Can’t fake that. T12 at AMEX before suggests it’s all coming together. Move him up. T21 so I hope you had top 25.

Adam Hadwin (+11000): Trending and five straight on the property. Make it six straight but T50 didn’t help much.

Sepp Straka (+125000): How can you ignore anyone who closes with a bogey-free 65 on Torrey Pines South on Sunday? One round didn’t carry over but missing the cut on 2-under suggests Sunday at Torrey wasn’t a fluke.

Michael Thompson (+14000):  Played great in the last desert (T5 AMEX) and is rolling in on four straight T25 or better. Value here. No value if the cut isn’t made!

Russell Knox (+14000): All or nothing TOUR and event. LET’S GAMBLE. T53. Better than nothing, barely.

JT Poston (+15000): Loves Bermuda greens yet was T18 last week with three of four under par at Torrey. Worst round of the week was 69 on Sunday for T11.

Padraig Harrington (+20000): Played great in the Middle East last week with T6. Make a cut, sneak in the top 20.  Nope and Nope. And got COVID.

Bo Hoag (+20000): Of his last four, three are T23 or better. Chuck a buck on a top 20. T36 was close, but not close enough.

Michael Kim (+75000): Top 20. Dare to dream but he’s made two of three cuts for the first time in forever. Or just nibble him to make the cut! T58 should have halved your money!

Pretty shitty week! Let’s go again!

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out through Twitter (@mikeglasscott) or email me: mikeglasscott@gmail.com.

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