With five of the top 10 in the OWGR in the field this week, you may be tempted to pull the trigger. I don’t blame you but you might find some gold digging deeper.

Good morning, @TPCScottsdale. ☀️⛰ pic.twitter.com/7dNAfkQ4N7

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 3, 2021

2020-2021 OAD

50 events, the most since the mid-70s, will give us plenty of time for strategy, strength and disaster.

2020-2021 Events	Golfers	Place	Total $$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T29	41,391
120th United States Open	Jon Rahm	T23	101,797
Corales Punta Cana	Pat Perez	T21	39,000
Sanderson Farms Championship	Doc Redman	T28	46,200
Shriners Hospitals for Children	Patrick Cantlay	T8	190,750
CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK	Matthew Wolff	73rd	16,575
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP	Tyrrell Hatton	T28	50,137
Bermuda Championship	Will Zalatoris	T16	61,000
Vivint Houston Open	Tony Finau	T24	58,450
84th Masters Tournament	Justin Thomas	4th	552,000
The RSM Classic	Russell Henley	T30	39,552
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Abraham Ancer	T12	147,600
Sentry TOC	Cameron Smith	T24	63,200
Sony Open in Hawaii	Daniel Berger	T7	200,475
The American Express	Scottie Scheffler	MC	0
Farmers Insurance Open	Marc Leishman	T18	80,761
Total Events: 16	Top 10: 3	MC: 1	$1,688,888

Welcome aboard!

If you’re new or curious or both, my entire archive is on the website. Go back and figure out what you want or need or ignore it completely.

Each week I’ll post the folks I believe will make some noise in different categories.

Remember, if you don’t like it, you get DOUBLE YOUR MONEY BACK!

Last Week – Farmers Insurance Open

Marc Leishman – T18

Defending champ didn’t contend so I’m wondering who told him I was lining him up in OAD this week!

The weather was difficult early and perfect late but I wasn’t exactly glued to my seat this weekend watching.

We go again.

Safety Dance:

Players in here will appear obvious until I explain why they might not be. Remember “one” means ONCE, not again down the road.

Jon Rahm – T7: Just to let you know how my OAD season is going, I played Rahm at Winged Foot. His T23 is his only non-top 10 finish.

Rory McIlroy – T16: Another Sunday stumble (73) didn’t help gamers who thought he’d bounce back from a 54 hole lead in the Middle East.

Tony Finau – T2: Water ball on 18 cost him solo second but it’s four top 10s in his last five trips here.

Jason Day – MC: Swung and missed here badly. It happens.

Spicy:

Charles Howell III – MC: The streak is over but he went out with a bang with 79 on Friday.

Xander Schauffele – T2: For those of you who bucked the trend, fantastic job. His form AND ball-striking suggests any week could be the week.

Adam Scott – T10: In his two visits he’s cashed solo second and T10.

Bubba Watson – MC: Rain hit Friday and so did the EJECT button. Finicky.

3 AM at the Blackjack Table:

Jason Kokrak – T29, Ryan Palmer – T2, Gary Woodland – T48, Harry Higgs – T65, Corey Conners – T37, Cameron Tringale – T18

This Week – Waste Management Phoenix Open

Budding superstars and big-name veterans are among the last five winners. Desert golf will be different this time around as the raucous crowds will be limited but TPC Scottsdale is a very solid test of golf.

Get Horsed for Coursed HERE.

THE CHOICE:  Hideki Matsuyama

When healthy he’s never cashed worse than T16. He never plays Torrey Pines well so don’t be discouraged by his results last week. Without a win since 2017 he should find inspiration around TPC Scottsdale.

Safety Dance:

Players in here will appear obvious until I explain why they might not be. Remember “one” means ONCE, not again down the road.

Jon Rahm: I’ve already been burned saving him for a major where he didn’t fire. He always fires here and loves desert golf. And his form is outstanding. Deserved favorite.

Justin Thomas: Third and T3 in his last two visits and will look to get back on track after a tough January.

Webb Simpson: Safest of the safe! Never worse than T20 in his eight paydays.

Bubba Watson: No rain in the desert. No wind. No distractions. No wonder he’s cashed T5 or better in five of nine weekends.

Xander Schauffele: As I wrote above, it’s not going to matter so I’m keeping him for a larger pay day.

Spicy:

Daniel Berger: Two excellent starts in Hawaii to start 2021 catch my eye but he’s been outside the top 28 EXACTLY ONE TIME since his win at Colonial to restart 2020.

Rickie Fowler: Spicy is right. If this week isn’t the tonic, I’m not sure when or where after? PGA National? Honda? I need a clue or two this week.

Billy Horschel: One bad round is ruining three great ones. Also hasn’t won since 2017 but fits the veteran profile who makes tons of cuts here.

Ryan Palmer: I GIVE UP. I’M SORRY. Of his last four on TOUR, three have cashed T4 or better. He’s MC in four of his last five here so hope that form, like with Schauffele last week, breaks thru.

3 AM at the Blackjack Table:

Gary Woodland, Byeong Hun An, Carlos Ortiz, Adam Long, Luke List, Bo Hoag

Good Luck!

Check out my previous results below if you need a history lesson:

History Channeled:

2019-2020

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
The Greenbrier	Scottie Scheffler	T7	235,625
Sanderson Farms	Sungjae Im	P2	719,400
Safeway Open	Byeong-Hun An	MC	0
Shriners Hospitals for Children	Scott Piercy	MC	0
Houston Open	Henrik Stenson	MC	0
CJ CUP AT NINE BRIDGES	Marc Leishman	T43	31,785
ZOZO Championship	Hideki Matsuyama	2nd	1,053,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Xander Schauffele	2nd	1,095,000
Bermuda Championship	Denny McCarthy	T15	51,750
OHL Mayakoba Classic	Russell Knox	T33	36,810
The RSM Classic	Harris English	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Rickie Fowler	T5	285,000
Sony Open	Charles Howell III	T12	116,500
The American Express	Phil Mickelson	MC	0
Farmers Insurance Open	Tony Finau	T6	253,125
Waste Management Phoenix	Bubba Watson	T3	386,900
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am	Brandt Snedeker	MC	0
Genesis Invitational	Justin Thomas	MC	0
Puerto Rico Open	Viktor Hovland	WIN	540,000
WGC-Mexico Championship	Dustin Johnson	T48	45,500
The Honda Classic	Daniel Berger	T4	280,000
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Tommy Fleetwood	MC	0
THE PLAYERS Championship	Abandoned	No Result	0
Charles Schwab Challenge	Jordan Spieth	T10	181,875
RBC Heritage	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Travelers Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	T6	233,470
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Tyrrell Hatton	T4	300,000
Workday Charity Open	Justin Rose	MC	0
Memorial	Patrick Cantlay	T32	51,925
3M Open	Will Gordon	MC	0
WGC-FESJ Invitational	Brooks Koepka	T2	695,000
Barracuda	Brendan Steele	T53	8,277
PGA Championship	Jon Rahm	T13	192,207
Wyndham Championship	Webb Simpson	T3	312,400
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	MC	0
BMW Championship	Collin Morikawa	T20	106780
Total Events: 36	Top 10: 14	MC: 11	7,212,329

2018-19

My contributions for the major championships and PLAYERS selection were worse than bad so to still break the $10 million mark with those awful results was encouraging.

Another valuable lesson learned is that the Playoffs are for the big boys. Now, WHICH big boys make this more and more difficult and that’s why it’s enjoyable and maddening all at the same time. Only McIlroy and Woods have won the FedExCup twice so start there.

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T53	14,610
CIMB Classic	Ryan Moore	T66	12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Gary Woodland	2nd	1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Ian Poulter	21st	93,500
Sanderson Farms	Cameron Davis	MC	0
Shriners	Aaron Wise	T15	101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
The RSM Classic	J.J. Spaun	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Jon Rahm	T8	191,000
Sony Open	Marc Leishman	T3	307,200
60th Desert Classic	Andrew Putnam	T34	29,975
Farmers Insurance	Patrick Cantlay	MC	0
WMPO	Hideki Matsuyama	T15	113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jason Day	T4	334,400
Genesis Open	Justin Thomas	2nd	799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ	Xander Schauffele	T14	128,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graeme McDowell	T42	10,500
The Honda Classic	Adam Scott	MC	0
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Rickie Fowler	T40	35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship	Sergio Garcia	T22	125,000
Valspar Championship	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Corales Punta Cana	Trey Mullinax	T61	6,450
WGC-Match Play	Paul Casey	T9	167,000
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	MC	0
Masters	Rory McIlroy	T21	107,956
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	2nd	745,200
Zurich Classic	Ryan Palmer	WIN	1,051,200
Wells Fargo Championship	Phil Mickelson	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Keith Mitchell	T59	17,301
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Charles Schwab Challenge	Jordan Spieth	T8	197,100
Memorial	Tony Finau	MC	0
RBC Canadian Open	Jim Furyk	T27	55,100
U.S. Open	Tiger Woods	T21	117,598
Travelers Championship	Bubba Watson	T54	16,560
Rocket Mortgage Classic	Sungjae Im	T21	68,528
3M Open	Bryson DeChambeau	T2	563,200
John Deere Classic	Collin Morikawa	T4	264,000
The Open Championship	Rafa Cabrera Bello	MC	0
Barbasol Championship	Denny McCarthy	T11	77,000
WGC-FESJI	Dustin Johnson	T20	113,500
Barracuda Championship	Martin Laird	T7	105,437
Wyndham Championship	Webb Simpson	2nd	669,600
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Tommy Fleetwood	T43	27,565
BMW Championship	Brandt Snedeker	T5	351,500
Total Events: 45	Top 10s: 14	MC: 10	$10,024,685

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
Ft. Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Dell Technologies	Marc Leishman	T21	100,800
BMW Championship	Gary Woodland	T12	189,000
TOUR Championship	Justin Thomas	T7	279,900
Total Events: 47	Top 10s: 15	MC: 7	$10,967,909

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

Thanks for reading!