The world’s most iconic players on America’s most iconic course.

Fitting for a national championship decider!

With a monster prize pool on the line, including $2.25 million to the winner, it’s time for a big pick to cash in!

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T53	14,610
CIMB Classic	Ryan Moore	T66	12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Gary Woodland	2nd	1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Ian Poulter	21st	93,500
Sanderson Farms	Cameron Davis	MC	0
Shriners	Aaron Wise	T15	101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
The RSM Classic	J.J. Spaun	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Jon Rahm	T8	191,000
Sony Open	Marc Leishman	T3	307,200
60th Desert Classic	Andrew Putnam	T34	29,975
Farmers Insurance	Patrick Cantlay	MC	0
WMPO	Hideki Matsuyama	T15	113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jason Day	T4	334,400
Genesis Open	Justin Thomas	2nd	799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ	Xander Schauffele	T14	128,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graeme McDowell	T42	10,500
The Honda Classic	Adam Scott	MC	0
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Rickie Fowler	T40	35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship	Sergio Garcia	T22	125,000
Valspar Championship	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Corales Punta Cana	Trey Mullinax	T61	6,450
WGC-Match Play	Paul Casey	T9	167,000
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	MC	0
Masters	Rory McIlroy	T21	107,956
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	2nd	745,200
Zurich Classic	Ryan Palmer	WIN	1,051,200
Wells Fargo Championship	Phil Mickelson	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Keith Mitchell	T59	17,301
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Charles Schwab Challenge	Jordan Spieth	T8	197,100
Memorial	Tony Finau	MC	0
RBC Canadian Open	Jim Furyk	T27	55,100
Total Events: 33	Top 10s: 10	MC: 9	$7,650,197

Last Week – RBC Canadian Open

Rory McIlroy won by seven shots and I’m not sure anyone saw that coming. A top finish, yeah, definitely not out of the question, but a romp that included a closing 61 with two bogeys was spectacular.

In my man Spotter’s league, we have a ton of people playing.

Zero selected McIlroy.

My Choice: Jim Furyk – T27

Never fired and I paid the price. I went hyper-conservative and it back-fired.

Safety Dancing:

Scott Piercy – MC

Welp. I’m glad I left him alone but I know plenty of other who didn’t. A stretch of seven years between “defending” probably didn’t help and neither did missing the cut by four shots.

Dustin Johnson – T20

Never could get all the pistons firing as one but he probably had one eye on this week anyhow.

Matt Kuchar – T4

Well done for those of you who had not burned the two-time winner already this season. Those of you who went this route at Memorial are allowed to be furious!

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Shane Lowry – T2

Continued his hot streak as he tied for the B Flight title with Webb Simpson.

Brandt Snedeker – T4

Set the course record in Round 2 with 60 but ran out of gas on the weekend as the McIlroy Machine rolled over the field.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Any Canadian – Adam Hadwin was solo sixth as he took home low honors. Mackenzie Hughes spent most of the week in the top 20 before a birdie-less final round saw him cash T14.

Bud Cauley – Another “course form meets current form” disaster.

Nick Watney – Swung, missed.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Brooks Koepka – T50

His record in majors made this an obvious fade in this format.

Six Beers In: 

Lucas Bjerregaard – MC, Sergio Garcia – MC, Joaquin Niemann – T31

 

This Week – U.S. Open

If you like to read about trends, stats and the players I have rated, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

Read more in Horses for Courses here.

Big tournaments require big decision making.

Pebble Beach will have the traditional U.S. Open rough off the fairways and greens plus the tiny targets of Pebble Beach greens to aim at.

This is not golf for the faint of heart!

And neither is this decision!

There are plenty of choices that make sense this week and in the grand scheme of things.

With the weather appearing to be perfect and precipitation slim or none throughout the week, I’m going with the toughest of the bunch.

My Choice: Tiger Woods

Healthy and rested, he returns to the scene of the biggest margin of victory in the history of major championships.  The course obviously rates highly with him and he knows how to navigate it in the toughest of conditions.

Royal Portrush doesn’t provide any strategic advantage and neither does any tournament between now and East Lake for The Large Cat so I’m down.

Power Plays:

Dustin Johnson: The good news is I’ll have him for anything else I choose down the road while the rest of society fires him this week. I don’t blame them and am terribly afraid

Brooks Koepka: Head says history is history for a reason. Heart says I’d love to see it and how he pulls it off. He will have more challengers this time because Pebble Beach isn’t the unknown quantity like Erin Hills or the once-in-a-while Shinnecock Hills. He’s only played one Pro-Am, T8 in 2016.

Patrick Cantlay: All the stars are aligned as he romped to a bogey-free 64 at Memorial his last time out. He led on the back nine at Augusta on Sunday and was T3 at the PGA Championship.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Shane Lowry: Form is fire and he’s not new to coastal links golf.

Brandt Snedeker: I’m not changing the top two from last week. Not when Sneds has two wins and a T4 in his last seven trips plus T8 in 2010.

Jordan Spieth/Jason Day: The short game angle is my angle. Plus both have plenty of past successes here.

Rickie Fowler: His complete bag is always the draw and so is his recent record in majors, minus the win. Closing the first one is always the toughest and three of these five will have to deal with that possibility on Sunday.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Phil Mickelson: The career grand slam is very real after his win here in February. His form is terrifying as is his frustration with the USGA.

Justin Thomas: Only one previous visit and just his third tournament after a wrist deal.

Webb Simpson: Golf tournaments are hard to win. Majors are even more difficult, especially a second U.S. Open. He’ll be unnoticed for most of the week as Brooks, Tiger and Phil will carry the headlines. Just as he prefers.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Rory McIlroy: Wouldn’t Royal Portrush make more sense? Nobody has won the week before the U.S. Open and then gone on to claim our national championship. Context is very important.

Matt Kuchar: This isn’t the major or course for this format.

Six Beers In: 

C.T. Pan, Branden Grace, Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler

 

History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
Ft. Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Dell Technologies	Marc Leishman	T21	100,800
BMW Championship	Gary Woodland	T12	189,000
TOUR Championship	Justin Thomas	T7	279,900
Total Events: 47	Top 10s: 15	MC: 7	$10,967,909

 

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!