Not the deepest of fields this week so it might take a pick from off-the-radar.

Sure, the field is TOP HEAVY, but I’m not sure that’s the angle to play this week.

Nice digs though!

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T53	14,610
CIMB Classic	Ryan Moore	T66	12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Gary Woodland	2nd	1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Ian Poulter	21st	93,500
Sanderson Farms	Cameron Davis	MC	0
Shriners	Aaron Wise	T15	101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
The RSM Classic	J.J. Spaun	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Jon Rahm	T8	191,000
Sony Open	Marc Leishman	T3	307,200
60th Desert Classic	Andrew Putnam	T34	29,975
Farmers Insurance	Patrick Cantlay	MC	0
WMPO	Hideki Matsuyama	T15	113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jason Day	T4	334,400
Genesis Open	Justin Thomas	2nd	799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ	Xander Schauffele	T14	128,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graeme McDowell	T42	10,500
The Honda Classic	Adam Scott	MC	0
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Rickie Fowler	T40	35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship	Sergio Garcia	T22	125,000
Valspar Championship	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Corales Punta Cana	Trey Mullinax	T61	6,450
WGC-Match Play	Paul Casey	T9	167,000
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	MC	0
Masters	Rory McIlroy	T21	107,956
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	2nd	745,200
Zurich Classic	Ryan Palmer	WIN	1,051,200
Wells Fargo Championship	Phil Mickelson	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Keith Mitchell	T59	17,301
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Charles Schwab Challenge	Jordan Spieth	T8	197,100
Memorial	Tony Finau	MC	0
Total Events: 32	Top 10s: 10	MC: 9	$7,595,097

Last Time: Memorial

My Choice: Tony Finau – MC

I have one rule.

If you’re going to suck, really suck.

Not kinda suck.

Not MC because your 36th hole was bad.

Go ugly early.

77 WITH AN EAGLE left him in the bottom 10 after one round.

Adios.

Safety Dancing:

Tiger Woods – T9

Nice 67 on Sunday moved him into the top 10 but it was his only round in the 60s for the week. That’s not enough when 19-under was the winning score. He makes even more sense for next week where par will be an excellent score.

Rory McIlroy – MC

Last time he MC was Shinnecock so patently unlucky.

Matt Kuchar – MC

The other premium course horse behind Woods, Kuchar decided to miss his first cut since the 2018 PGA Championship. Unbelievable that both went out on the same weekend. Bad luck is part of our game, sadly.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Patrick Cantlay – WIN

Convincing and establishes himself as a major player at Memorial after solo fourth last year.

Rickie Fowler – T14

Comfortably stalking the pace thru 36, his 72-72 weekend was disappointing. Again.

Kyle Stanley – MC

Came in on form that was less-than-stellar and not even the friendly confines of MVGC could break him out. Better have more than one theory playing fantasy golf!!!

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Peter Uihlein – MC

Pulled a Finau, quick and painless, minus the pain.

Rory Sabbatini – T27

And the beat rolls on for the veteran who is in a fantastic vein of form. I wish he was in the field this week!

Justin Thomas – MC

Painful as his 71 was followed by a smooth 80. I hate playing guys the first week back. You’ll see why that’s not always the “right” answer below.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Jason Day – MC

11 tries, no top-10 finishes. Prove me wrong next year.

Bryson DeChambeau – T22

Beat Woods by a shot on Sunday but couldn’t crack the top 20. Only Woods has defended the title here.

Six Beers In: 

David Lingmerth – T41, Matt Every – MC, Sam Burns – WD

 

This Week – RBC Canadian Open

If you like to read about trends, stats and the players I have rated, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

For you course historians please remember this is only the fourth event here this century and first since Scott Piercy’s win in 2012.

Read more in Horses for Courses here.

Harry Colt designed this joint in 1915 so to say it qualifies as old school is a sever understatement.

Not reaching 7,000 yards, this inland links track will test the patience and ball-striking this week. Poa annua greens won’t run terribly hot as they are sloped and not terribly big. The rough is wet and thick and should penalize inaccurate drives and approaches but not to the standard of a U.S. Open.

Piercy’s winning total of 17-under came with ball-in-hand in closely mown areas the first two rounds. He opened with the course record 62 followed by a trio of 67s. Ball-striking Robert Garrigus and short, accurate William McGirt both shared second. Room for all styles this week!

My Choice: Jim Furyk

It was him or Piercy so I sided with THE OLD GUY.

He’s first in GIR and 13th in fairways so I’ll take my chances with his putter. Furyk should be buoyed knowing he’s won here and he’s not going to have to hit perfect hybrids into Par-4s all day. His short-track record is excellent and that was the deciding factor.

Safety Dancing:

Scott Piercy: Form is combustible and he’s the last man to win here. Plus, you’re not saving him for down the road.

Dustin Johnson: He can win any and every time out. Some will argue to play him THIS week in a weaker field. I’m not one of them.

Matt Kuchar: There’s no way he’s not going home early two weeks in a row! Course style fits his game to a T so I’m not hesitating throwing him back out there again this week.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Shane Lowry: T3 and T8 in his last two, both on ball-striking courses.

Brandt Snedeker: Another who has found form tee-to-green recently, his record on Poa is stellar.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Any Canadian: The last winner from the home country was 1954. That’s too much history for me to attach my wagon. Their best players haven’t been in ENOUGH form for my money to take the risk.

Bud Cauley: I’m so biased here that I should just shut up. T4 in 2012 and T9 last week!!!

Nick Watney: He’s found a nick of form with T8 and T22 the last two weeks. It’s been a while since he’s strung a few good ones in a row.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Brooks Koepka: Surprised you still have him available! He should be used against the biggest fields with the biggest purses. This is a recording.

Six Beers In: 

Lucas Bjerregaard, Sergio Garcia, Joaquin Niemann

 

History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
Ft. Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Dell Technologies	Marc Leishman	T21	100,800
BMW Championship	Gary Woodland	T12	189,000
TOUR Championship	Justin Thomas	T7	279,900
Total Events: 47	Top 10s: 15	MC: 7	$10,967,909

 

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!