Only one man has defended his title.

Hint: It’s not the former QB.

He’ll divide opinion on gamers again this week.

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T53	14,610
CIMB Classic	Ryan Moore	T66	12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Gary Woodland	2nd	1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Ian Poulter	21st	93,500
Sanderson Farms	Cameron Davis	MC	0
Shriners	Aaron Wise	T15	101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
The RSM Classic	J.J. Spaun	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Jon Rahm	T8	191,000
Sony Open	Marc Leishman	T3	307,200
60th Desert Classic	Andrew Putnam	T34	29,975
Farmers Insurance	Patrick Cantlay	MC	0
WMPO	Hideki Matsuyama	T15	113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jason Day	T4	334,400
Genesis Open	Justin Thomas	2nd	799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ	Xander Schauffele	T14	128,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graeme McDowell	T42	10,500
The Honda Classic	Adam Scott	MC	0
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Rickie Fowler	T40	35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship	Sergio Garcia	T22	125,000
Valspar Championship	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Corales Punta Cana	Trey Mullinax	T61	6,450
WGC-Match Play	Paul Casey	T9	167,000
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	MC	0
Masters	Rory McIlroy	T21	107,956
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	2nd	745,200
Zurich Classic	Ryan Palmer	WIN	1,051,200
Wells Fargo Championship	Phil Mickelson	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Keith Mitchell	T59	17,301
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Charles Schwab Challenge	Jordan Spieth	T8	197,100
Total Events: 31	Top 10s: 10	MC: 8	$7,595,097

Last Time: Charles Schwab Challenge (Colonial)

My Choice: Jordan Spieth – T8

I originally wrote “Paul Casey” in this space but then realized I’d burned him at WGC-Dell Match Play for T9. My late-panic selection Thursday morning turned out for the best of the worst as A.) Casey WD and B.) Spieth played decently.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than “good”.

I’m not sure why I omitted Kevin Na, THE WINNER, completely. After 61 and 62 last year that should have qualified SOMEWHERE in this column.

So much for “good”.

Safety Dancing:

Jordan Spieth: See above.

Jon Rahm – MC

I’m glad I had burned him because he burned the entire MF house down with his MC.

Justin Rose – T58

I argued he had more value for later in the summer. Now, we learn his caddy Mark Fulcher is out indefinitely. They’re human beings, not robots.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Kevin Kisner – MC

Nothing much on his own ball post his WGC-Match Play win.

Scott Piercy – T19

Sat inside the top 15 after 54 holes but a closing 72 knocked him backwards.

Brandt Snedeker – T19

Opening round 74 made it an uphill climb but 67-68-69 made it back-to-back top-20 results (T16 at PGA).

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Ryan Palmer – T6

The member played like one!

Rory Sabbatini – T6

The 2007 champ racked up another top 10 as he closed with 67

Danny Lee – T48

Last three rounds over par never helps.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Zach Johnson – MC

Six Beers In: 

Jason Dufner – T40, Daniel Berger – T53, Vaughn Taylor – T58

 

This Week

If you like to read about trends, stats and the players I have rated, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

Muirfield Village Golf Club has four easy Par-5 holes and wide landing areas off the tee so it’s hardly surprising that 15-under is the average winning score recently.

If that’s the case, it’s going to take a few rounds in the 60s this week to be in with a shout.

This event has had some interesting winners recently and interesting names on the podium as well.

The invitational field always has a chunk of big-name players and they’re usually in the top 10 but they don’t always win.

With wet conditions at least early in the week, I’m breaking ties with big-boy ball-strikers.

My Choice: Tony Finau

He’s 30-under here the last four years and 11 of his 16 rounds are under-par. Opening with 64 last week and finishing second after 68 in the final round should have him full of confidence this week.

Safety Dancing:

Tiger Woods: I’ve given you my thoughts on him. It’s Pebble-or-Bust for me unless he gets nicked up again in the injury department.

Rory McIlroy: I get he’s never won here but his ball-striking numbers and run of top-10 finishes are sick. Remember, the winner gets $1.638 million. It’s not a major but it’s close.

Matt Kuchar: He’s third because he doesn’t win enough but he has more wins this season than the two guys above. He’s in form and loves this track in any condition.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Patrick Cantlay: Course form matches current form: Hot.

Rickie Fowler: He should be in this column every time he plays. It just depends on which section!

Kyle Stanley: His metrics aren’t where they were last year but with three top 10s in his last four here it’s a wonderful nibble.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Peter Uihlein: The dangerous course form meets current form.

Rory Sabbatini: Part II.

Justin Thomas: How many guys win on their first event back after missing events including a major? This would make a few dreams come true!

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Jason Day: His best finish at his “home course” doesn’t include a top 10 in 10 starts.

Bryson DeChambeau: Gamers fall in love with the defending champion. He’s 0-3 entering the week and hasn’t picked up a top 10 since the Sony Open.

Six Beers In: 

David Lingmerth, Matt Every, Sam Burns

 

History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
Ft. Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Dell Technologies	Marc Leishman	T21	100,800
BMW Championship	Gary Woodland	T12	189,000
TOUR Championship	Justin Thomas	T7	279,900
Total Events: 47	Top 10s: 15	MC: 7	$10,967,909

 

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!