It’s almost show time!

And I’ve already screwed up!

I used Paul Casey at Match Play, haha!

SO CROSS HIM OFF THE LIST!

 

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T53	14,610
CIMB Classic	Ryan Moore	T66	12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Gary Woodland	2nd	1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Ian Poulter	21st	93,500
Sanderson Farms	Cameron Davis	MC	0
Shriners	Aaron Wise	T15	101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
The RSM Classic	J.J. Spaun	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Jon Rahm	T8	191,000
Sony Open	Marc Leishman	T3	307,200
60th Desert Classic	Andrew Putnam	T34	29,975
Farmers Insurance	Patrick Cantlay	MC	0
WMPO	Hideki Matsuyama	T15	113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jason Day	T4	334,400
Genesis Open	Justin Thomas	2nd	799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ	Xander Schauffele	T14	128,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graeme McDowell	T42	10,500
The Honda Classic	Adam Scott	MC	0
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Rickie Fowler	T40	35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship	Sergio Garcia	T22	125,000
Valspar Championship	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Corales Punta Cana	Trey Mullinax	T61	6,450
WGC-Match Play	Paul Casey	T9	167,000
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	MC	0
Masters	Rory McIlroy	T21	107,956
RBC Heritage	Matt Kuchar	2nd	745,200
Zurich Classic	Ryan Palmer	WIN	1,051,200
Wells Fargo Championship	Phil Mickelson	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Keith Mitchell	T59	17,301
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Total Events: 30	Top 10s: 9	MC: 8	$7,397,997

Last Time: PGA Championship

Swish.

Second winner in four events and third podium in five gives me some pep in my step.

Koepka showed again he’s not afraid of history, crowds, tough courses or anything else as he blew away a field of 154. Only one player, his buddy DJ, gave him any problems all week.

Oh, and he beat Tiger Woods, playing in the same group Thursday and Friday, by 17 shots.

The funniest thing I heard all weekend was that Ricky Elliott, Koepka’s caddy, is from Portrush, Northern Ireland. So all of you who missed out this week can file that for later. Koepka has played Pebble once in the Pro Am and finished T8 with nothing worse than 70. #TheMoreYouKnow

My Choice: Brooks Koepka – WIN

Safety Dancing:

Tiger Woods – MC: As we found out he was under the weather on Wednesday and then dump-trucked by Koepka all day Thursday and Friday. The new Tiger is just that. We live and learn so hopefully you burned him at the Masters and don’t have to worry about him for the rest of the year. Everyone else, like me, is left scratching heads.

Dustin Johnson – 2nd: Completing the second-place grand slam didn’t do it for the big hitter but winning $1.188 million, a “normal” TOUR first-place check doesn’t sting here. Unfinished business at Pebble Beach will provide us with another difficult decision.

Justin Rose – T29: Sitting at three-under after 36, Rose was poised to take the B Flight. His 73-75 weekend was his second disappointing finish at a major after MC at the Masters. I still have Rose in the bank and that’s not a bad thing as he’s not exactly firing on all cylinders currently.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Francesco Molinari – T48: 73-75 weekend knocked well off the pace and plants a seed of doubt. I’m not sure, as I wrote in my preview, if he’s “healed” after his Masters back nine.

Rory McIlroy – T8: Lovely back door performance and a flattering finish but he was never in the conversation all week. He needed a fantastic finish on Friday to make the cut, and he did, but his 69-69 weekend was done in the early groups. His investors this week won’t GAF.

Xander Schauffele – T16: Gotta play all 72 and his 76 on Sunday dropped him out of the top three. I’ve seen enough. He’s legit.

Rickie Fowler – T36: If you thought 76 from Schauffele was bad, and you’re right, how about 77 from Fowler then?

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Gary Woodland – T8: Shot the round of the day on Sunday with 68 to backdoor the top 10. Bravo.

Paul Casey – T29: His 69 in Round 4 was a slight consolation but that’s it. Two bad majors in a row, relatively speaking.

Hideki Matsuyama – T16: Playing in the penultimate group with DJ, this 77 was hard to take but easy to understand. He just hasn’t put together four rounds yet this season. He’s a former champ at Memorial if you’re getting the itch.

Patrick Cantlay – T3: I drafted him and Matsuyama (plus Erik Van Rooyen) in my weekly league. Roller coaster Sunday to say the least.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Phil Mickelson – T71: Spent his weekend hob-nobbing with the fans so they’re ready for his Ryder Cup squad in 2024.

Jordan Spieth – T3: Dead wrong. Made EVERYTHING he looked at on the greens as gained over 10 strokes for the week, a career-best total.

Six Beers In: 

Scott Piercy – T41, Jim Furyk – MC, Jhonattan Vegas – MC

 

This Week

If you like to read about trends, stats and the players I have rated, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

Pretty easy one again this week.

Find a big-boy player who’s in some form and saddle up.

Colonial’s forecast suggests another week of birdies similar to last year and the best players tend to make the most birdies.

Experience or elite talent separates the folks here as youngsters are more exception than rules. There were three rookies inside the top 11 last year in these same conditions.

My Choice: Jordan Spieth

I had a tough decision, I thought, last week with Brooks or Tiger. This week feels similar. I’m not going to talk anybody out of Spieth but after setting a career-record in Strokes-Gained on the greens, I would think a regression would be natural. Casey’s boring, steady ball-striking will be easier on my soul.

Safety Dancing:

Jon Rahm: I’ve already burned him so yeah. He’s proven that this track fits his eye and is a no-brainer if you still have him laying around.

Justin Rose: The angle to save him for bigger events has backfired at the first two majors. Rose, for my money, has too much value for the late summer than he does trying to become the only player to defend other than Hogan.

Paul Casey: Er, yeah, I screwed that up but it’s obvious I like him this week as well. Premium veteran ball-striker. Sigh.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Kevin Kisner: Similar to Spieth, bashed it here for three straight before cooling off last year.

Scott Piercy: Keep it rollin’ in regular TOUR events, brah.

Brandt Snedeker: He’s never missed but he’s only gone close once.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Ryan Palmer: Hardly automatic as his last six rounds here have NOT broken par.

Rory Sabbatini: 2007 champion has been playing great but his last win was 2011.

Danny Lee: Opened with 64 and Bethpage and is 6-for-6 here with T22 or better in his last four.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Zach Johnson: So easy to fall in love with tournament records and the two wins but the field is much lighter at John Deere if you must use him.

Six Beers In: 

Jason Dufner, Daniel Berger, Vaughn Taylor

 

History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
Ft. Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Dell Technologies	Marc Leishman	T21	100,800
BMW Championship	Gary Woodland	T12	189,000
TOUR Championship	Justin Thomas	T7	279,900
Total Events: 47	Top 10s: 15	MC: 7	$10,967,909

 

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!