OAD: AT&T Byron Nelson 2019

Can’t have a rainbow without rain, right?

Wet day/week/six months in Dallas won’t have Trinity Forest firm and fast.

That’s just part of the fantasy battle this week

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event Golfer Place $$
Safeway Open Brendan Steele T53 14,610
CIMB Classic Ryan Moore T66 12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Gary Woodland 2nd 1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions Ian Poulter 21st 93,500
Sanderson Farms Cameron Davis MC 0
Shriners Aaron Wise T15 101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
The RSM Classic J.J. Spaun MC 0
Sentry TOC Jon Rahm T8 191,000
Sony Open Marc Leishman T3 307,200
60th Desert Classic Andrew Putnam T34 29,975
Farmers Insurance Patrick Cantlay MC 0
WMPO Hideki Matsuyama T15 113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach Jason Day T4 334,400
Genesis Open Justin Thomas 2nd 799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ Xander Schauffele T14 128,000
Puerto Rico Open Graeme McDowell T42 10,500
The Honda Classic Adam Scott MC 0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rickie Fowler T40 35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship Sergio Garcia T22 125,000
Valspar Championship Patrick Reed MC 0
Corales Punta Cana Trey Mullinax T61 6,450
WGC-Match Play Paul Casey T9 167,000
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel MC 0
Masters Rory McIlroy T21 107,956
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar 2nd 745,200
Zurich Classic Ryan Palmer WIN 1,051,200
Wells Fargo Championship Phil Mickelson MC  
Total Events: 28 Top 10s: 8 MC: 8 $5,400,696

Last Time: Wells Fargo Championship

My Choice: Phil Mickelson – MC

After WIN and second the last two weeks I can’t feel too poorly but my top-10 paydays now equal my MC for the year.


Mickelson’s lack of form entering the week should have bothered me more but I wasn’t using Max Homa or Justin Rose regardless.

We move on.

Safety Dancing: In Order

Rory McIlroy: T8

To say this was a letdown would be accurate based on past events. I don’t show up to use McIlroy for T8. Instead I got T21 or whatever in the Masters!

Rickie Fowler: T4

He joins McIlroy as an automatic look in this event as he chalked up another top 10.

Paul Casey: T4

Backed up his top 10 from 2018 with another beauty this season. I did not have any of these three available for selection.


Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Webb Simpson: T18

Home game with a solid finish but I’ll remind gamers he didn’t name his daughter Wells, but rather Wyndham.

Lucas Glover: T31

His worst finish this season. That’s not a bad thing.

Jason Kokrak: 69 (Nice)

He was two-under heading into the weekend but 74-78 wiped out any hopes of making a late move.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Kevin Streelman: T45

Jason Day: T24

Keith Mitchell: T8

J.B. Holmes: 80/WD

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Hideki Matsuyama: T31

Patrick Reed: His daughter is Windsor Wells. T28.

Six Beers In: 

J.T. Poston – MC, Roberto Castro – MC, Daniel Berger – T54

Maybe I should switch to gin!


This Week

If you like to read about trends, stats and the players I have rated, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

If you like to read about big-time players in Dallas, I have the main players at The Confidence Factor Horses for Courses.

My Choice: Keith Mitchell

T3 last year and three top 10-finishes in his last seven on TOUR including his first win.

Safety Dancing: In Order

Marc Leishman: Did everything but win last year and won’t mind a bit of weather.

Ryan Palmer: Yeah, he MC last year but he did win his last time. Plenty will point to the Colonial angle (he’s a member) but that’s not a guarantee of anything. He plays wind, has plenty of length and can really putt.

Branden Grace: Loves Texas golf (Valero winner) and showed out her last year. His form doesn’t rush him to the front of the line but this course fits his eye.


Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Sungjae Im: He should be up the list. Solid across the board and should enjoy swinging it this week.

Rafa Cabrera Bello: Solid as it gets and you’re not saving him for anything down the road. Hasn’t been exactly racking up top finishes though.

Scott Piercy: Unless you want to save him for his “defense” of the RBC Canadian Open next month…He was the last winner at Hamilton Golf and Country Club in 2012, the site of this year’s event. His career year, minus a win, rolls on.

Thomas Pieters: He showed up for his first Masters in 2017 and almost won it. Same amount of rough here. Form is eh.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Aaron Wise: I wrote why NOT in the preview. His form suggests I might not be right.

Scott Scheffler: Hotter than English teams in the second legs of European Cup semifinals.

Henrik Stenson: When was the last time he won? When was the last time he hit the top 10 in stroke play in a full-field event?

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Brooks Koepka: Elite players go in majors or FedExCup Playoff.

Six Beers In: 

Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Seamus Power


History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event Golfer Place $$
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Wells Fargo Championship Bryson DeChambeau 4th 369,600


THE PLAYERS Francesco Molinari MC 0
Ft. Worth Invitational Adam Scott T52 16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson Jimmy Walker T6 257,950
Memorial Tiger Woods T23 76,985
FESJC Henrik Stenson T26 50,820
US Open Justin Rose T10 270,151
FESJC Xander Schauffele MC 0
Quicken Loans National Kyle Stanley T32 36,841
A Military Tribute Bubba Watson T13 121,632
John Deere Classic Zach Johnson T16 81,366
British Open Rory McIlroy T2 694,250
RBC Canadian Open Charley Hoffman T29 37,743
Barracuda Martin Laird T15 51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite Rickie Fowler T17 104,250
PGA Championship Brooks Koepka WIN 1,980,000
Wyndham Brandt Snedeker WIN 1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST Jason Day T20 101,160
Dell Technologies Marc Leishman T21 100,800
BMW Championship Gary Woodland T12 189,000
TOUR Championship Justin Thomas T7 279,900
Total Events: 47


Top 10s: 15 MC: 7 $10,967,909


2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!



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