Some oldies but goodies this week.

Oh, and World No. 1.

I won’t ever talk you out of Dustin Johnson but I’m saving him for a bigger payday.

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Brendan Steele	T53	14,610
CIMB Classic	Ryan Moore	T66	12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Gary Woodland	2nd	1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions	Ian Poulter	21st	93,500
Sanderson Farms	Cameron Davis	MC	0
Shriners	Aaron Wise	T15	101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
The RSM Classic	J.J. Spaun	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Jon Rahm	T8	191,000
Sony Open	Marc Leishman	T3	307,200
60th Desert Classic	Andrew Putnam	T34	29,975
Farmers Insurance	Patrick Cantlay	MC	0
WMPO	Hideki Matsuyama	T15	113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach	Jason Day	T4	334,400
Genesis Open	Justin Thomas	2nd	799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ	Xander Schauffele	T14	128,000
Puerto Rico Open	Graeme McDowell	T42	10,500
The Honda Classic	Adam Scott	MC	0
Arnold Palmer Invitational	Rickie Fowler	T40	35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship	Sergio Garcia	T22	125,000
Valspar Championship	Patrick Reed	MC	0
Corales Punta Cana	Trey Mullinax	T61	6,450
WGC-Match Play	Paul Casey	T9	167,000
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	MC	0
Masters	Rory McIlroy	T21	107,956
Total Events: 25	Top 10s: 6	MC: 7	$3,604,296

Last Time: Masters

It’s always great to have streaks of top-10 finishes crushed in the biggest events of the year and that’s what happened to McIlroy’s investors last week.

Watching Tiger Woods win was incredible and it felt like all of golf had won.

The Masters always puts up a monster leader board (two words, remember?) and I learned that Brooks Koepka can do what he wants each week on TOUR but he has the magic switch for major championships. His last four are WIN, T39, WIN and T2. I’ll also point out that the lack of rough and escape routes seem to favor Tony Finau’s bomb-and-gouge approach regardless of his ankle situation.

As always, every major provides a major upset and the Masters killed Justin Rose investors along with those of Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia. There were only four players in the top 16 in their 40’s and one was the winner. He was joined by Kuchar, Watson and Poulter, all T12.

My Choice: Rory McIlroy – T21

Safety Dance: Tiger Woods – WIN, Justin Rose – MC, Dustin Johnson – T2

Spicy: Paul Casey – MC, Matt Kuchar – T12, Rickie Fowler – T9, Louis Oosthuizen       – T29

Picks for Dreamers: Jordan Spieth – T21, Hideki Matsuyama – T32, Phil Mickelson – T18

Picks for Noses: Patrick Reed – T36, Brooks Koepka – T2, Tony Finau – T5, Alex Noren – T62

 Six Beers In: Brandt Snedeker – MC, Jason Day – T5

 

This Week

If you like to read about trends and past winners, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

If you like to read about course horses and who excels in Calibogue Sound, I have the main players at The Confidence Factor Horses for Courses.

The last two years have seen two winners without having 20 TOUR starts in their respective careers.

The last three winners have produced first-time TOUR winners.

My Choice: Matt Kuchar

With two wins on the season already he’s not going to have to conquer any demons or wonder if he can still close the deal. He’s cruising along and this track might set up the best of any on TOUR for him.

Safety Dancing: In Order

Kevin Kisner: The South Carolina native went close here, losing in a playoff to Furyk in 2015, and has never had a multi-win season. His preferred surface is Bermuda and he’s 17-under here over the last two years with three rounds OVER PAR.

Bryson DeChambeau: Better fit this week as Dye requires more A to B golf that the artisans require at Augusta National. His TOUR debut was made here in 2016 and he cashed T4 so this should have a special place in his galaxy.

Webb Simpson: Found something with his weekend at Augusta as he played his final 30 holes 10-under. Lacked form entering the week but hasn’t missed in eight tries at HTGL.

Ian Poulter: I’m not sure there’s anyone in the field, minus Furyk, who will enjoy a proper seaside grind this week more than Poulter. The last two years he’s gone agonizingly close before hiccups on Sunday. He played in the penultimate group last weekend at Augusta National so he’s dialed in.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Patrick Cantlay: He spotted the field 73-73 to barely make the cut last week but exploded for 64-68 on the weekend to cash T9. He had the lead with three holes to play as he circled 13 birdies and one eagle in his first 33 holes of the weekend. The final three, bogey-bogey-par should leave him starving this week.

Jim Furyk: If you want “winners” like my dude Cadders/Chadders this would be the track for Furyk to break out. The 2010 and 2015 champ is making cuts for fun (healthy) this season and didn’t have to grind it out last weekend. The only downside is he hasn’t won since 2015 at this event.

Luke Donald: He was an automatic selection up until last year as he absolutely ruled the roost on this track. Course historians will be tearing their hair out while the optimist will point out he’s only had one bad round in the last three years (76-67 MC 2018). This will be his fourth event of the season.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Jason Kokrak: His current form suggests he’s super-close to finally picking up a win. It would be his first on TOUR. He went close and a demanding Valspar a few weeks ago.

Cameron Smith: Closing with 77 at Augusta National should help keep everyone away this week. His scoring average here over three events is 69.4

Si Woo Kim: Should have won last year and didn’t; comes in with momentum after playing the weekend in five-under at the Masters.

Lucas Glover: Quick, name the last time he won on TOUR! Wells Fargo, 2011, you’re right! The South Carolina native’s ball-striking has kept him in contention almost weekly this season.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Francesco Molinari: Man, I have no idea where he’s at mentally. He plays this event annually the last three years so he didn’t add it to take out some newly-found aggression. The last three majors he’s won, cashed T6 and should have won at Augusta. He might more useful down the road.

Satoshi Kodaira: The rule is defending for the first time is difficult. I’m not sure he was on anyone’s radar in the first place but newbies tend to hunt down defending champions. Not the best idea always.

Charles Howell III: It’s amazing that A.) Anyone would have a start on him left and B.) He’s not cracked the top 20 here this decade.

 Six Beers In: 

Patton Kizzire, Aaron Baddeley, Brian Harman

 

History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
Ft. Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Dell Technologies	Marc Leishman	T21	100,800
BMW Championship	Gary Woodland	T12	189,000
TOUR Championship	Justin Thomas	T7	279,900
Total Events: 47	Top 10s: 15	MC: 7	$10,967,909

 

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!