OAD: RBC Heritage 2019

Some oldies but goodies this week.

Oh, and World No. 1.

I won’t ever talk you out of Dustin Johnson but I’m saving him for a bigger payday.

One and Done

Each week I’ll throw in my thoughts on the field and those to back and avoid in this wonderful format.

This Year:

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Brendan Steele T53 14,610
CIMB Classic Ryan Moore T66 12,740
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Gary Woodland 2nd 1,026,000
WGC-HSBC Champions Ian Poulter 21st 93,500
Sanderson Farms Cameron Davis MC 0
Shriners Aaron Wise T15 101,675
Mayakoba Golf Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
The RSM Classic J.J. Spaun MC 0
Sentry TOC Jon Rahm T8 191,000
Sony Open Marc Leishman T3 307,200
60th Desert Classic Andrew Putnam T34 29,975
Farmers Insurance Patrick Cantlay MC 0
WMPO Hideki Matsuyama T15 113,600
AT&T Pebble Beach Jason Day T4 334,400
Genesis Open Justin Thomas 2nd 799,200
WGC-Mexico Champ Xander Schauffele T14 128,000
Puerto Rico Open Graeme McDowell T42 10,500
The Honda Classic Adam Scott MC 0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rickie Fowler T40 35,490
THE PLAYERS Championship Sergio Garcia T22 125,000
Valspar Championship Patrick Reed MC 0
Corales Punta Cana Trey Mullinax T61 6,450
WGC-Match Play Paul Casey T9 167,000
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel MC 0
Masters Rory McIlroy T21 107,956
       
Total Events: 25 Top 10s: 6 MC: 7 $3,604,296

Last Time: Masters

It’s always great to have streaks of top-10 finishes crushed in the biggest events of the year and that’s what happened to McIlroy’s investors last week.

Watching Tiger Woods win was incredible and it felt like all of golf had won.

The Masters always puts up a monster leader board (two words, remember?) and I learned that Brooks Koepka can do what he wants each week on TOUR but he has the magic switch for major championships. His last four are WIN, T39, WIN and T2. I’ll also point out that the lack of rough and escape routes seem to favor Tony Finau’s bomb-and-gouge approach regardless of his ankle situation.

As always, every major provides a major upset and the Masters killed Justin Rose investors along with those of Paul Casey and Sergio Garcia. There were only four players in the top 16 in their 40’s and one was the winner. He was joined by Kuchar, Watson and Poulter, all T12.

My Choice: Rory McIlroy – T21

Safety Dance: Tiger Woods – WIN, Justin Rose – MC, Dustin Johnson – T2

Spicy: Paul Casey – MC, Matt Kuchar – T12, Rickie Fowler – T9, Louis Oosthuizen       – T29

Picks for Dreamers: Jordan Spieth – T21, Hideki Matsuyama – T32, Phil Mickelson – T18

Picks for Noses: Patrick Reed – T36, Brooks Koepka – T2, Tony Finau – T5, Alex Noren – T62

 Six Beers In: Brandt Snedeker – MC, Jason Day – T5

 

This Week

If you like to read about trends and past winners, I have you covered in The Confidence Factor Preview.

If you like to read about course horses and who excels in Calibogue Sound, I have the main players at The Confidence Factor Horses for Courses.

The last two years have seen two winners without having 20 TOUR starts in their respective careers.

The last three winners have produced first-time TOUR winners.

My Choice: Matt Kuchar

With two wins on the season already he’s not going to have to conquer any demons or wonder if he can still close the deal. He’s cruising along and this track might set up the best of any on TOUR for him.

Safety Dancing: In Order

Kevin Kisner: The South Carolina native went close here, losing in a playoff to Furyk in 2015, and has never had a multi-win season. His preferred surface is Bermuda and he’s 17-under here over the last two years with three rounds OVER PAR.

Bryson DeChambeau: Better fit this week as Dye requires more A to B golf that the artisans require at Augusta National. His TOUR debut was made here in 2016 and he cashed T4 so this should have a special place in his galaxy.

Webb Simpson: Found something with his weekend at Augusta as he played his final 30 holes 10-under. Lacked form entering the week but hasn’t missed in eight tries at HTGL.

Ian Poulter: I’m not sure there’s anyone in the field, minus Furyk, who will enjoy a proper seaside grind this week more than Poulter. The last two years he’s gone agonizingly close before hiccups on Sunday. He played in the penultimate group last weekend at Augusta National so he’s dialed in.

Spicy:

Picks that should click but have more element of risk

Patrick Cantlay: He spotted the field 73-73 to barely make the cut last week but exploded for 64-68 on the weekend to cash T9. He had the lead with three holes to play as he circled 13 birdies and one eagle in his first 33 holes of the weekend. The final three, bogey-bogey-par should leave him starving this week.

Jim Furyk: If you want “winners” like my dude Cadders/Chadders this would be the track for Furyk to break out. The 2010 and 2015 champ is making cuts for fun (healthy) this season and didn’t have to grind it out last weekend. The only downside is he hasn’t won since 2015 at this event.

Luke Donald: He was an automatic selection up until last year as he absolutely ruled the roost on this track. Course historians will be tearing their hair out while the optimist will point out he’s only had one bad round in the last three years (76-67 MC 2018). This will be his fourth event of the season.

Picks for Dreamers:

Breakout performance from this group will get gamers back into contention

Jason Kokrak: His current form suggests he’s super-close to finally picking up a win. It would be his first on TOUR. He went close and a demanding Valspar a few weeks ago.

Cameron Smith: Closing with 77 at Augusta National should help keep everyone away this week. His scoring average here over three events is 69.4

Si Woo Kim: Should have won last year and didn’t; comes in with momentum after playing the weekend in five-under at the Masters.

Lucas Glover: Quick, name the last time he won on TOUR! Wells Fargo, 2011, you’re right! The South Carolina native’s ball-striking has kept him in contention almost weekly this season.

Picks for Noses:

Save them for another time. Each week I usually have a couple of these hit the top 10 so BUYER BEWARE!

Francesco Molinari: Man, I have no idea where he’s at mentally. He plays this event annually the last three years so he didn’t add it to take out some newly-found aggression. The last three majors he’s won, cashed T6 and should have won at Augusta. He might more useful down the road.

Satoshi Kodaira: The rule is defending for the first time is difficult. I’m not sure he was on anyone’s radar in the first place but newbies tend to hunt down defending champions. Not the best idea always.

Charles Howell III: It’s amazing that A.) Anyone would have a start on him left and B.) He’s not cracked the top 20 here this decade.

 Six Beers In: 

Patton Kizzire, Aaron Baddeley, Brian Harman

 

History Channeled:

2017-18 Thermometer: FINAL

Event Golfer Place $$
       
Safeway Open Tony Finau 2nd 669,600
CIMB Classic Paul Casey T7 218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES Keegan Bradley T47 23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions Hideki Matsuyama T50 51,875
Sanderson Farms Chesson Hadley T2 464,400
Shriners Patrick Cantlay WIN 1,224,000
OHL Classic Kevin Chappell MC 0
The RSM Classic Charles Howell III MC 0
Sentry TOC Kevin Kisner T17 99,333
Sony Open Brian Harman T4 256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge Jason Dufner T36 27,189
Farmers Insurance Jon Rahm T29 43,872
WMPO Alex Noren T21 80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach Phil Mickelson T2 488,400
Genesis Open Dustin Johnson T16 111,600
Honda Classic Graeme McDowell MC 0
WGC-Mexico Tommy Fleetwood T14 126,500
Valspar Championship Ryan Moore MC 0
Arnold Palmer Tyrell Hatton T69 18,067
WGC-Match Play Patrick Reed T9 163,000
Corales Puntacana Patrick Rodgers T22 27,850
Houston Open Luke List T24 54,162
Masters Jordan Spieth 3rd 748,000
RBC Heritage Cameron Smith T32 35,510
Valero Texas Open Billy Horschel T11 136,400
Zurich Classic Bud Cauley MC 0
Wells Fargo Championship Bryson DeChambeau 4th 369,600

 

THE PLAYERS Francesco Molinari MC 0
Ft. Worth Invitational Adam Scott T52 16,472
AT&T Byron Nelson Jimmy Walker T6 257,950
Memorial Tiger Woods T23 76,985
FESJC Henrik Stenson T26 50,820
US Open Justin Rose T10 270,151
FESJC Xander Schauffele MC 0
Quicken Loans National Kyle Stanley T32 36,841
A Military Tribute Bubba Watson T13 121,632
John Deere Classic Zach Johnson T16 81,366
British Open Rory McIlroy T2 694,250
RBC Canadian Open Charley Hoffman T29 37,743
Barracuda Martin Laird T15 51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite Rickie Fowler T17 104,250
PGA Championship Brooks Koepka WIN 1,980,000
Wyndham Brandt Snedeker WIN 1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST Jason Day T20 101,160
Dell Technologies Marc Leishman T21 100,800
BMW Championship Gary Woodland T12 189,000
TOUR Championship Justin Thomas T7 279,900
       
Total Events: 47

 

Top 10s: 15 MC: 7 $10,967,909

 

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

  • Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
  • Seconds: 0
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 9
  • Top 25s: 18
  • MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

  • Wins: 1
  • Seconds: 1
  • Thirds: 1
  • Top 10s: 12
  • Top 25s: 20
  • MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

Thanks for reading!

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