It’s been ground.
I talked myself into it.
I wouldn’t mind this result one bit if I didn’t have the winner!
|Safeway Open||Tony Finau||2nd||669,600|
|CIMB Classic||Paul Casey||T7||218,166|
|CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES||Keegan Bradley||T47||23,759|
|WGC-HSBC Champions||Hideki Matsuyama||T50||51,875|
|Sanderson Farms||Chesson Hadley||T2||464,400|
|OHL Classic||Kevin Chappell||MC||0|
|The RSM Classic||Charles Howell III||MC||0|
|Sentry TOC||Kevin Kisner||T17||99,333|
|Sony Open||Brian Harman||T4||256,266|
|CareerBuilder Challenge||Jason Dufner||T36||27,189|
|Farmers Insurance||Jon Rahm||T29||43,872|
|-AT&T Pebble Beach||Phil Mickelson||T2||488,400|
|Genesis Open||Dustin Johnson||T16||111,600|
|Honda Classic||Graeme McDowell||MC||0|
|Valspar Championship||Ryan Moore||MC||0|
|Arnold Palmer||Tyrell Hatton||T69||18,067|
|WGC-Match Play||Patrick Reed||T9||163,000|
|Corales Puntacana||Patrick Rodgers||T22||27,850|
|Houston Open||Luke List||T24||54,162|
|RBC Heritage||Cameron Smith||T32||35,510|
|Valero Texas Open||Billy Horschel||T11||136,400|
|Zurich Classic||Bud Cauley||MC||0|
|Wells Fargo Championship||Bryson DeChambeau||4th||369,600
|THE PLAYERS||Francesco Molinari||MC||0|
|AT&T Byron Nelson||Jimmy Walker||T6||257,950|
|Fort Worth Invitational||Adam Scott||T52||16,472|
|US Open||Justin Rose||T10||270,151|
|Quicken Loans National||Kyle Stanley||T32||36,841|
|A Military Tribute||Bubba Watson||T13||121,632|
|John Deere Classic||Zach Johnson||T16||81,366|
|British Open||Rory McIlroy||T2||694,250|
|RBC Canadian Open||Charley Hoffman||T29||37,743|
|WGC-Bridgestone Invite||Rickie Fowler||T17||104,250|
|PGA Championship||Brooks Koepka||WIN||1,980,000|
|THE NORTHERN TRUST||Jason Day||T20||101,160|
|Total Events: 45
|Top 10s: 14||MC: 7||$10,398,209|
All good things come to an end but as shown below, I didn’t think DeChambeau and his shoulder were ready for this. That’s good news for leaders when a guy comes from out of left field to win as not many will make up ground.
The “Big 3” put some cash in the coffers but not the big score gamers saving them for this occasion would have hoped. This reiterates that saving guys for certain tournaments is never a guaranteed result. It also doesn’t help that TNT is a rotating site as it levels the playing field a bit. The fact is it isn’t a major and guys don’t play it like one.
My Choice: Jason Day – T20
Picks for Leaders: If you went with Nos. 1, 2 or 3 in the FedExCup standings you would have cashed T11, T8 or T8 so no jackpot.
Picks for Chasers: I would have thought Tony Finau would have fallen in this group and he would have been the big prize at T2.
Picks for Dreamers (outside top 30): Gary Woodland – T48, Matt Kuchar – T60, Martin Laird – T73, Adam Scott – T5.
Picks for Noses (inside top 30): Bryson DeChambeau – WIN, Phil Mickelson – T15
Six Beers In (outside top 100): Harold Varner III – T40, Danny Lee – T34, Vaughn Taylor – TFRL then MC hahaha.
Make sure to read The Confidence Factor for all of the ins-and-outs at TPC Boston plus all of the course history.
TPC Boston has shown a propensity for scoring for top players so I’m going to lean on players in form that can handle these conditions. Mickelson is the only player to win on debut but Rahm led by two after 36 last year (T4) so it’s not impossible. I’d just note the class of player who has contended in the past. Thomas had NO LOVE here before his win last year but he rolled into town as the PGA Champ with the confidence of Muhammad Ali.
I also found it interesting that T29 is the best title defense in the last six years. Nobody has ever defended at FedExCup event and it hasn’t been close here. Does that mean Thomas is an IGNORE this week? No, it’s just what’s happened before and you need to be aware.
Here are some of my choices remaining for this event and the final two:
Thomas — East Lake
Na — Provides a very steady option; T6 last year and three GREAT rounds last week.
Leishman — He was on 18-under at the turn last year in the final round and cruising before he limped home in 40 for solo third.
Poulter — Steady option as he’s been involved all season long with the Ryder Cup looming.
Woodland — Man, he just keeps hovering plus he’s never MC here.
Cabrera-Bello — Closed with 65 here last year and stats point in the right direction.
Oosthuizen — Best course form of the bunch but a recent WD at Bellerive makes me nervous.
Kuchar — Miracle.
Grace — See above.
(I have newbies Wise, Hossler, Landry and Putnam but this is not the event in my opinion).
My Choice: Marc Leishman. He knows he should have closed this out last year and he showed his class by winning the next week at the BMW. He’s playing with Tiger Woods again so that should be familiar and hopefully he can build on his 67 to close last week at Ridgewood.
If he can’t make it to the first tee Plan B is Louis Oosthuizen.
Anytime that Oosty is Plan B, I’ll need a Plan C so that’s Kevin Na.
I hope I don’t regret leaving RCB off this week but I’m going with the guy making his 10th start here coming off his best result.
Big miss last week with Day didn’t sting as DeChambeau was lightly owned, if at all. If I can avoid a disaster this week with a massive name not winning, I’ll count my lucky stars.
NO CUT NEXT TWO:
BMW Championship (Donald Ross course): Aronimink, another Hanse restoration, is the host and Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011) are the only two winners on TOUR here.
The TOUR Championship (Donald Ross course): There has never been a repeat champion or anyone who has won multiple FedExCup titles so whoever is left! A rookie won for the first time last year (Schauffele) so it’s not impossible!
2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events
- Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
- Seconds: 0
- Thirds: 1
- Top 10s: 9
- Top 25s: 18
- MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)
2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events
- Wins: 1
- Seconds: 1
- Thirds: 1
- Top 10s: 12
- Top 25s: 20
- MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).
Thanks for reading!