It’s been ground.

I talked myself into it.

I wouldn’t mind this result one bit if I didn’t have the winner!

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Fort Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
British Open	Rory McIlroy	T2	694,250
RBC Canadian Open	Charley Hoffman	T29	37,743
Barracuda	Martin Laird	T15	51,000
WGC-Bridgestone Invite	Rickie Fowler	T17	104,250
PGA Championship	Brooks Koepka	WIN	1,980,000
Wyndham	Brandt Snedeker	WIN	1,080,000
THE NORTHERN TRUST	Jason Day	T20	101,160
Total Events: 45	Top 10s: 14	MC: 7	$10,398,209

Last week:

All good things come to an end but as shown below, I didn’t think DeChambeau and his shoulder were ready for this. That’s good news for leaders when a guy comes from out of left field to win as not many will make up ground.

The “Big 3” put some cash in the coffers but not the big score gamers saving them for this occasion would have hoped. This reiterates that saving guys for certain tournaments is never a guaranteed result. It also doesn’t help that TNT is a rotating site as it levels the playing field a bit. The fact is it isn’t a major and guys don’t play it like one.

My Choice: Jason Day – T20

Picks for Leaders: If you went with Nos. 1, 2 or 3 in the FedExCup standings you would have cashed T11, T8 or T8 so no jackpot.

Picks for Chasers: I would have thought Tony Finau would have fallen in this group and he would have been the big prize at T2.

Picks for Dreamers (outside top 30): Gary Woodland – T48, Matt Kuchar – T60, Martin Laird – T73, Adam Scott – T5.

Picks for Noses (inside top 30): Bryson DeChambeau – WIN, Phil Mickelson – T15

Six Beers In (outside top 100): Harold Varner III – T40, Danny Lee – T34, Vaughn Taylor – TFRL then MC hahaha.

 

This week:

Make sure to read The Confidence Factor for all of the ins-and-outs at TPC Boston plus all of the course history.

TPC Boston has shown a propensity for scoring for top players so I’m going to lean on players in form that can handle these conditions. Mickelson is the only player to win on debut but Rahm led by two after 36 last year (T4) so it’s not impossible. I’d just note the class of player who has contended in the past. Thomas had NO LOVE here before his win last year but he rolled into town as the PGA Champ with the confidence of Muhammad Ali.

I also found it interesting that T29 is the best title defense in the last six years. Nobody has ever defended at FedExCup event and it hasn’t been close here. Does that mean Thomas is an IGNORE this week? No, it’s just what’s happened before and you need to be aware.

Here are some of my choices remaining for this event and the final two:

Thomas — East Lake

Na — Provides a very steady option; T6 last year and three GREAT rounds last week.

Leishman — He was on 18-under at the turn last year in the final round and cruising before he limped home in 40 for solo third.

Poulter — Steady option as he’s been involved all season long with the Ryder Cup looming.

Woodland — Man, he just keeps hovering plus he’s never MC here.

Cabrera-Bello — Closed with 65 here last year and stats point in the right direction.

Oosthuizen — Best course form of the bunch but a recent WD at Bellerive makes me nervous.

Kuchar — Miracle.

Grace — See above.

(I have newbies Wise, Hossler, Landry and Putnam but this is not the event in my opinion).

My Choice: Marc Leishman. He knows he should have closed this out last year and he showed his class by winning the next week at the BMW. He’s playing with Tiger Woods again so that should be familiar and hopefully he can build on his 67 to close last week at Ridgewood.

If he can’t make it to the first tee Plan B is Louis Oosthuizen.

Anytime that Oosty is Plan B, I’ll need a Plan C so that’s Kevin Na.

I hope I don’t regret leaving RCB off this week but I’m going with the guy making his 10th start here coming off his best result.

 

My Life

Big miss last week with Day didn’t sting as DeChambeau was lightly owned, if at all. If I can avoid a disaster this week with a massive name not winning, I’ll count my lucky stars.

NO CUT NEXT TWO:

BMW Championship (Donald Ross course): Aronimink, another Hanse restoration, is the host and Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011) are the only two winners on TOUR here.

The TOUR Championship (Donald Ross course): There has never been a repeat champion or anyone who has won multiple FedExCup titles so whoever is left! A rookie won for the first time last year (Schauffele) so it’s not impossible!

Good luck!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!