Carnoustie is the host for the first time since Padraig Harrington’s playoff win against Sergio Garcia in 2007.

A few things have changed in the golfing landscape since then!

One thing that hasn’t is the course. It’s a beast.

2018 Thermometer:

Event	Golfer	Place	$$
Safeway Open	Tony Finau	2nd	669,600
CIMB Classic	Paul Casey	T7	218,166
CJ CUP @ 9 BRIDGES	Keegan Bradley	T47	23,759
WGC-HSBC Champions	Hideki Matsuyama	T50	51,875
Sanderson Farms	Chesson Hadley	T2	464,400
Shriners	Patrick Cantlay	WIN	1,224,000
OHL Classic	Kevin Chappell	MC	0
The RSM Classic	Charles Howell III	MC	0
Sentry TOC	Kevin Kisner	T17	99,333
Sony Open	Brian Harman	T4	256,266
CareerBuilder Challenge	Jason Dufner	T36	27,189
Farmers Insurance	Jon Rahm	T29	43,872
WMPO	Alex Noren	T21	80,040
-AT&T Pebble Beach	Phil Mickelson	T2	488,400
Genesis Open	Dustin Johnson	T16	111,600
Honda Classic	Graeme McDowell	MC	0
WGC-Mexico	Tommy Fleetwood	T14	126,500
Valspar Championship	Ryan Moore	MC	0
Arnold Palmer	Tyrell Hatton	T69	18,067
WGC-Match Play	Patrick Reed	T9	163,000
Corales Puntacana	Patrick Rodgers	T22	27,850
Houston Open	Luke List	T24	54,162
Masters	Jordan Spieth	3rd	748,000
RBC Heritage	Cameron Smith	T32	35,510
Valero Texas Open	Billy Horschel	T11	136,400
Zurich Classic	Bud Cauley	MC	0
Wells Fargo Championship	Bryson DeChambeau	4th	369,600
THE PLAYERS	Francesco Molinari	MC	0
AT&T Byron Nelson	Jimmy Walker	T6	257,950
Fort Worth Invitational	Adam Scott	T52	16,472
Memorial	Tiger Woods	T23	76,985
FESJC	Henrik Stenson	T26	50,820
US Open	Justin Rose	T10	270,151
FESJC	Xander Schauffele	MC	0
Quicken Loans National	Kyle Stanley	T32	36,841
A Military Tribute	Bubba Watson	T13	121,632
John Deere Classic	Zach Johnson	T16	81,366
Total Events: 36	Top 10s: 11	MC: 7	$6,403,806

Last week:

My Choice: Zach Johnson – T16

Picks for Leaders: Steve Stricker – T43, Ryan Moore – T55, Francesco Molinari – T2

Picks for Chasers: Joaquin Niemann – T23, Austin Cook – T34, Patrick Rodgers – T43

Picks for Dreamers: Wesley Bryan – MC , Kevin Tway – T50, Aaron Wise – MC

Picks for Noses: Bryson DeChambeau – WD

Six Beers In: Andrew Landry – T55, J.T. Poston – T65

#NappyFactor: Austin Cook, Wesley Bryan

Drop-Dead Pick: Zach Johnson – T16

 

This week:

After a wonderful swing-and-miss (minus Molinari and DeChambeau) last week, time to get right with the third major.

With a maximum haul of FedExCup Points (600 pts.) and $1.89 million to the winner, time dust off the big boys. Carnoustie is impossible by most accounts and that should help separate the men from the boys. At this point in the season, we can count the events on both hands so there’s no time for goofing around.

This week’s winner will not be higher than No. 350 in the world. Taking a look at the last decade of winners the only shock was Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 for my money. Darren Clarke was a Ryder Cup player so that’s not as surprising. Heck, nobody knew how to pronounce Oosty’s name until the trophy presentation on Sunday!

Anyhow, of the last eight winners half have resided in their 40’s. A couple of have been generationally great young players. Zach Johnson is the classic “prime” player while Kuchar and Mickelson have been runners up the last two years. While I’m not against running a guy out for his first major, I’m not going to give it a try this week. Sure, Fowler or Rahm or Noren could do the business but I’ll let someone else give that a go. I think Carnoustie takes a battle-hardened  stud who is going to be able to hold it together the final four holes on Sunday.

 

My Choice:Rory McIlroy

Picks for Leaders: Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Tiger Woods

Picks for Chasers: Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler

Picks for Dreamers: Tommy Fleetwood, , Ian Poulter, Paul Casey, Francesco Molinari, Alex Noren

Picks for Noses: Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Jason Day

Six Beers In: Branden Grace, Lee Westwood, Russell Knox, Danny Willett

Drop-Dead Pick: Dustin Johnson

 

Barbasol Picks

Brand-new Keene Trace takes up the reigns outside Lexington, Kentucky, for the opposite-field event. As with all new courses not many will have an advantage so I’m looking for heat. Bentgrass on the greens and a wet start to the week should make for plenty of birdies again this week.

My Choice: Joel Dahmen

Picks for Leaders: Billy Horschel, Chris Kirk, Tyler Duncan

Picks for Chasers: Sebastian Munoz, John Peterson, Sam Ryder

Picks for Dreamers: Scott Brown, James Hahn, Andres Romero

Six Bourbons In: Parker McLachlin, Tom Lovelady, John Oda

 

My Life

I didn’t get the Masters correct (Spieth – 3rd) or the U.S. Open (Rose – T10) so I’m unleashing McIlroy. I’ll hope he follows his trend for the last three of these as he’s finished inside the top five in all of them. I can’t worry about the FedExCup Playoffs if I am millions behind. If this is a bigger deal in your game, I’ve listed plenty of “others” above for your perusal.

I go into plenty of detail in The Confidence Factor, so please read that!

Here’s my tentative plan:

RBC Canadian Open: Matt Kuchar, John Vegas, Brandt Snedeker

Barracuda Championship: Martin Laird, TBD – old pro/vet

WGC-Bridgestone Invitational: McIlroy, Schwartzel, Koepka

PGA Championship: First-time venue Bellerive Country Club will suggest a top 10 OWGR player. Jason Day, Koepka and Thomas are obvious choices.

Wyndham Championship: Kevin Na, Ollie Schniederjans

NORTHERN TRUST OPEN: Matt Kuchar will be the only winner in the field at Ridgewood Country Club (2010). He was also T5 in 2014.

Dell Technologies TPC Boston: Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Chris Kirk

BMW Championship: Aronomink is the host and Rose (2010) and Nick Watney (2011) are the only two winners on TOUR here (Donald Ross course).

The TOUR Championship: There has never been a repeat champion or anyone who has won multiple FedExCup titles so whoever is left! A rookie won for the first time last year (Schauffele) so it’s not impossible!

Good luck!

History Channeled:

2015-16 Season total: $5,978,929; 47 events

• Wins: 2 (Matsuyama, Hoffman)
• Seconds: 0
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 9
• Top 25s: 18
• MC: 8 (Mickelson, FIO; Oosthuizen, SHO; Chappell, Colonial; Casey, Memorial; Woodland, FESJC; Hearn, RBC Canadian; McGirt, Wyndham; Justin Thomas, DBC)

2016-17 Season total: $6,533,509 45 events

• Wins: 1
• Seconds: 1
• Thirds: 1
• Top 10s: 12
• Top 25s: 20
• MCs (10): Grayson Murray (Safeway Open); Patton Kizzire (SFC); Jamie Lovemark (CB Challenge); Jimmy Walker (FIO); Charl Schwartzel (Genesis); Russell Knox (Honda); Henrik Stenson (API); Thomas Pieters (Zurich); Kevin Kisner (WFC).

 

Thanks for reading!